Dear Hillary,
My (much younger) father’s sister’s husband came
for vacation to Thailand, without his wife, and he stayed in our house (he still does). I
have romantic feelings for my uncle and recently we slept together. I didn’t plan on
having feelings for him the way I do, it just happened. He says he thinks about me all the
time and I think about him too, but we both also consider the future of our family, and
what would happen if anyone found out. My aunt and uncle don’t spend much time
together and they do their own thing, but don’t know what their marriage is like. He
says that I’m an easy person to love and gives me compliments that no one else has
given me before. I just don’t know whether what we feel about each other is wrong or
right, or what to do about it.
Maybe Wrong?
Dear Maybe Wrong,
An uncle is spiritually a surrogate father to his nieces and nephews. If
he does NOT feel guilty about what happened, then he is a man without a conscience. He is
also an unfaithful husband, a man who defiles his home, and a self-indulgent old creep who
lets himself be seduced by the flattering attentions of an immature and ignorant girl. He
doesn’t care about his family, or, in all likelihood, you. Forget about whether what
you feel about each other is "wrong" or "right": it is selfish,
misguided, and destructive. Use your head and get out of it now before more harm is done.
Dear Hillary,
I’ve been married for six years, but my marriage has been rocky since
day one—my husband verbally and physically abuses me on a regular basis. Recently, I
met a man at the beach who works at the same company as my husband, when my self-esteem
was at an all-time low. I fell for him, big-time, and we started to have an affair.
Unfortunately, he doesn’t feel the same way about me that I do about him, and is
being a jerk about the whole thing. He often avoids me now whenever we meet and sometimes
I see him huddled with other guys at parties, talking and laughing privately, looking at
me. I fear he has told them about our affair. If so, my reputation is ruined. I used to
enjoy the get-togethers of the company, but now I don’t want to go there anymore.
When I see him together with several other girlfriends, I feel sick to my stomach. I keep
getting dizzy spells, and I can’t seem to focus on anything. I’m literally
making myself ill. I’m so confused and depressed, I think I’m losing my mind.
Help!
Dear Help,
The greatest risk unhappy wives run is falling for the first jerk who
presents himself. But make no mistake: the real problem is not this loser; it is your
marriage. You fell for this garden-variety gigolo big-time because of the big-time lack of
love between you and your husband. Even if you did love him, no woman should stay with a
man who abuses her. It destroys all her self-esteem, as you have discovered. If your
husband won’t go into counseling with you—and I dare say he is the kind of bully
who thinks he doesn’t need it—then honestly, is he even worth bothering with? It
is impossible to solve problems with a man who talks with his fists. You deserve better.
Get out. Stay with a friend or your family. If he comes to his senses and agrees to work
with you on your marital problems, good. If not, consider staying out for keeps and go
back home. As for your fears about a scandal in the company, impossible though it seems, a
scandal lasts only as long as it takes the next one to come along. And believe it or not,
good reputations can weather storms. Stay cool. Stay proud. Stay out of Romeo’s way
as much as you can; he was only a symptom of your marital trouble, and once you start to
take control of your personal life, the less he will mean to you. Just hang in there, and
pity the next girl who falls for a jerk with all the sensitivity of a bedbug.
Presented by Bangkok-Pattaya Hospital
by Dr. Iain Corness
The above letters stand for two of the commonest ailments
in the world, and ones that everyone has had at one time or another. The "D" is
Diarrhoea and the "V" is Vomiting. These conditions are so common, we even have
fancy names for them. Who hasn’t heard of a "technicolour yawn" for
example? Sometimes you can even get both together and isn’t that fun?
However, what has to be remembered that D&V is not a disease, but are
merely symptoms of some underlying problem. That problem can be very minor, like an
over-indulgence of our old friend alcohol for example, or may be serious, such as an acute
twist of the bowel which can lead to gangrene and death.
We also categorize D&V into the two forms - Acute and Chronic. Acute,
as its name suggests, is D&V of rapid onset with no warning in a previously healthy
person, while Chronic indicates repetitive symptoms arising from a fairly constant disease
process present in the body for some time.
The Acute forms are generally caused by pathogens, our medical name for
nasty bugs, which may be bacterial or viral. Generally this type is self-limiting, and the
management principle is just to prevent dehydration. This is particularly important in
children. An injection to stop the vomiting may be required, followed by Electrolyte
Replacement therapy. These fluids are available under several brand names (Repalyte &
Gastrolyte for example) and come in powder form, then added to water to be drunk by the
patient. Anti-diarrhoeal agents can also be used, but they actually do not contribute to
the resolution of the underlying problem.
It must be reinforced that dehydration can kill young babies. Even the
good books say "Frequent Clinical review is a good rule." If you have an acutely
ill baby, do not think it is getting better because it goes quiet and lies down
"peacefully sleeping". The child may be severely dehydrated. If you have any
doubts at all - see your doctor!
The Chronic forms of D&V have a multitude of causes, from infective,
to chemical, to biochemical, to cancer. Whilst the acute type is generally self-limiting,
chronic forms must be investigated to pinpoint the reason. It is not "normal" to
have several bowel motions a day, or to have bloody stools. Chronic ailments like this
have to be investigated. No ifs or buts.
So that’s the D&V story. Every household should have a packet of
oral Electrolyte Replacement therapy in the medicine cupboard - and if you have a baby or
infants be watchful for dehydration, especially in hot climates like Thailand. You have
been warned!
By Leslie Wright
While over the past fortnight we’ve been looking at
the risks of investing in stock markets, the markets themselves seemed to prove the point
by taking a nose-dive.
You might think that when a few chaotic minutes can cause billions of
dollars to be wiped off the value of European stocks, the fundamental factors behind the
recent Russia-inspired fall must surely be very serious indeed.
Not so. The US economy shows no real signs of flagging, the business cycle
in the European economies appears to be some way off its peak, and the Asian crisis had
already been well discounted in lower stock prices.
Wise after the event
Of course some prophets of doom & gloom who were only too eager to be
interviewed on certain TV news programs and in the press were quick to announce that they
had been expecting all this, and are now eagerly predicting the demise of the Hong Kong
market, the US, and every other market that comes to mind while the camera is on them,
although in most cases they curiously failed to point out the danger zones beforehand.
It’s always easy to be wise after the event, and it’s amazing
how these commentators always have perfect hindsight vision. It’s little wonder that
they have difficulty moving forward when they spend most of their time looking backwards.
The recent downturn is already being called by some "The Crash of
’98", and much of it is being blamed on Russia.
It is perhaps worth noting that a few months back the same commentators
were predicting a world recession based on the imminent demise of the Japanese stock
market. Although this hasn’t yet come to pass, it would have a far more serious
impact on the world economy than the collapse of the Russian economy - which had virtually
collapsed already.
How important is Russia?
In economics’ terms, the Russian crisis has little direct effect on
the world economy, and it would be a mistake to think of Russia as the mover & shaker
it used to be during the Cold War era.
The entire Russian GDP is now only around US$440 billion, even smaller
than the Netherlands.
Russia may have been the catalyst, but the direct impact in the West of
the currency and debt crises in Moscow is limited to the Russian foreign debt underwritten
by commercial banks.
The crisis in Moscow has, however, had a sentimental effect on the outlook
for emerging markets in general. This negative effect even spread through to the US and
European stock markets.
With the uncertainty on the equity markets, investors scrambled for
‘safe haven’ investments and have driven US bond yields to below 5.5%.
(That is, investors clamouring to buy bonds drive their market price up;
thus the fixed dividend represents a lower percentage yield in relation to the prevailing
market value. This market force was discussed in some detail in the August 28th edition of
this column.)
Over-stretched fundamentals
The immediate cause of the stock market rout was there for all to see, if
they had the sense and objectivity to look - but not so closely that they couldn’t
see the wood for the trees.
The great fear of stock market strategists immediately prior to the latest
Russia crisis was that disappointing earnings’ reports from bellwether companies
would confirm what most already knew - that share valuations were looking hopelessly
stretched in relation to prospective earnings.
Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios in excess of 20 were common - implying it
would take 20 years or more at current growth levels for earnings per share to catch up
with the share price. In Frankfurt, the market P/E ratio was over 30.
Anything could have pricked that bubble, and profit warnings from the
likes of Motorola and Intel provided dress rehearsals for the recent share plunge in the
hi-tech sector.
Sentiment & the Herd Instinct
The real destroyer of the paper profits built up in the bull run was the
mood of stock investors - proof once again that most ‘average’ investors follow
their hearts rather than their heads.
Sentiment always causes overreaction, and this time was no different.
The state of the world economy, or at least the US and British stock
markets, hadn’t radically changed from a month earlier when prices were 20 percent
higher.
But sentiment can have an overwhelming effect on stock markets because
most investors are driven by just two emotions: fear and greed.
Greed drives them on, even when the market has spiraled to dizzying
heights which are clearly unsustainable on fundamentals. This was amply demonstrated in
Asia in late 1993, and again in this latest situation.
Fear then drives them to panic when bad news is announced, or when an
overheated market starts to correct itself - or when the Big Speculators who may well have
sparked the run in the first place take their profits, or alternatively or as well, sell
the market short. (That is, sell stocks they don’t own, which they plan to buy back
once the market has dropped to where they intend to drive it, and keep the difference in
profits.)
It takes not that many millions of these Big Boys’ money (or rather,
their investors’ money) to start this speculative snowball rolling, inasmuch as they
rely on the well-founded hope that as soon as the market starts moving downwards the herd
will jump onto the down escalator by panic selling, thus driving the market down farther
and faster, thereby ensuring these speculators make a quick bundle while the herd loses
not only its collective nerve but usually its shirt as well.
Fundamentals fighting Sentiment
Western economies were and remain in fair shape, and in Europe, demand
remains robust in an environment of minimal inflation.
Of the main Western economies, only Britain is starting to look wobbly,
reflected in the slack performance of the London Stock Exchange in relation to its
European counterparts, even during the bull market of the spring and early summer.
By contrast, the outlook for corporate earnings in the UK is less
favourable unless the Bank of England cuts interest rates. In view of them having done
quite the opposite not too long ago (almost certainly at the behest of the Labour
Government), it seems unlikely that they will unilaterally do an about-face, even though
the economy clearly requires it.
Every time a Labour Government has been in power in U.K., the economy
takes a downturn, the Pound weakens, and government spending escalates.
It seems that under New Labour, the economic management scenario will be
little different from Old Labour.
When confidence returns
As for the future, an injection of confidence from somewhere may be all
that is needed to turn investor sentiment from negative to positive.
In particular, pressure is mounting on the Group of Seven (G7) central
banks to provide a stimulus to their economies.
Under the current disinflation environment in the US and with the impact
from further slowing in the Asian economy, many analysts are expecting that Mr Greenspan
of the US Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy by lowering interest rates. However,
this seems unlikely to happen in the next six months.
The US economy is still experiencing strong growth in money supply, bank
credit and spending on housing.
In fact, a move by the Federal Reserve to cut rates could lead to a
stampede.
In 1987 the major industrialized nations moved swiftly to counter the
worst effects of Black Friday by loosening monetary policy, which added liquidity to the
stock markets and made bonds less attractive to investors.
The U.S. - bull, bear or
elephant?
The US is such a huge market that it is like an elephant - it takes a lot
of energy to get it moving, and it takes a lot to slow it down. In the meantime it rumbles
along, not needing much prodding to keep it going under its own momentum.
One reason for the superb and sustained performance of the US markets in
recent years has been the huge amounts of cash that have poured into the US, starting
during the global meltdown of ’94, continuing during the ‘Flight to
Quality’ of ’95 & ’96 and accelerating ever since emerging markets
began their crisis phase last year.
It had become a ‘wall of money’ chasing after a limited supply
of stocks, with ever increasing demand driving their prices ever higher.
The problem for many fund managers, in fact, was where to place these
enormous inflows, which were creating their own liquidity-driven upward spiral.
Many analysts had been saying for quite some time that the US market was
becoming over-priced and due for a correction.
But in an environment of low bond yields, equities quite simply offered
investors a better rate of return.
Fears of interest rate hikes had a slight braking effect, and the natural
slowdown of the economy has allowed the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged.
But just how quickly that flow of money can be reversed is clearly
demonstrated by the equity slump and bond rally that took place immediately when the
latest crisis hit.
However, if the heart of the market is ruling its head, as is so often the
case, it might not take much to bring the more speculative investors back to the equity
fold.
Even among emerging market funds, exposure to Russian stocks has always
been limited by the ever-present political risk. Other emerging markets offer far less
risk, and the possibility that returns from these will eclipse the major markets in the
not-too-distant future could mean their return to favour amongst international investors
who are looking for above-average returns and willing to accept the above-average risk
that goes with them.
More importantly, a weakening of the attraction of safe-haven bond markets
could send investors flocking back to lower-risk stocks.
In the meantime, to borrow from two rather more widely-read writers:
"Keep your heads while all about you are losing theirs," and remember that,
"The best time to buy is when blood is running in the streets..."
If you have any comments or queries on this article, or about other topics
concerning investment matters, write to Leslie Wright, c/o Family Money, Pattaya Mail, or
fax him directly on (038) 232522 or e-mail him at [email protected].
Further details and back articles can be accessed on his firm’s website on
www.westminsterthailand.com.
Leslie Wright is Managing Director of Westminster
Portfolio Services (Thailand) Ltd., a firm of independent financial advisors providing
advice to expatriate residents of the Eastern Seaboard on personal financial planning and
international investments.