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MOC confident export will grow 11% and keep rising
Given the information coming in, Commerce Minister Adisai
Bodharamik is voicing confidence that final figures for export in September
will have increased by 11% over last year to around US$6.1 billion. He said
imports were expected to total $5.7 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of
$400 million for the month.
Products with promising export value include electronics,
precious stones and ornaments, automobiles and parts, and electrical
applicants and parts.
“I’m still confident the overall export in the third
quarter of this year will grow considerably because it has increased at a
high rate in the past few months. For instance, the export rose 6.6% in
July, and 9.1% in August,” said Dr. Adisai.
Dr. Adisai forecast the export would expand 1.5% in the
first nine months of this year with a trade surplus of $2.4 million. He also
expressed optimism that the export in the October-December period would
expand monthly because he did not expect the war between the US and Iraq
would break out this year. (TNA)
Profits of securities firms likely to plunge in 3rd quarter
Analysts blame fears of a US-Iraq war and say profits
from the third-quarter performance of securities brokerage firms are likely
to plunge since trading volume has significantly dropped.
Capital Nomura Securities Research Division projected
securities companies listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand, excluding CNS
and Siam Industrial Credit, would have combined profits of 84 million baht,
down 79% from those of the second quarter of this year. The sharp decrease
was attributed to the fall in an average daily trading volume by 43% to 5.74
billion baht in the third quarter from 10.07 billion baht in the previous
quarter.
Normura’s research department said most securities
houses remained unable to fully expand income sources and seek new business
because they are short of personnel with specific skills. Under the
circumstances some firms could find themselves in the red again when
liberalization of brokerage fees resume in 2005.
Kim-eng Securities’ research division shared the same
view. They are forecasting the performance of the securities companies will
deteriorate in the third quarter. Many investors fear a possible US-Iraq war
would put the US economy into recession, and that could have a negative
effect on stock markets around the world. This could be witnessed by a net
selling of foreign investors and a sharp decrease in the daily trading
volume on the SET in the third quarter.
Seamico Securities Research Division predicted listed
securities firms, excluding CNS and Seamico, would have profits of only 198
million baht, down 41% from those of the second quarter. It attributed the
sharp fall in the profits to the persistent bearish sentiment on the bourse
in the third quarter. (TNA)
Japanese will further expand investment in Thailand says BOI
The Board of Investment is voicing confidence that
Japanese investors will continue to further expand their business and
investment in Thailand.
Sompong Wanapa, BOI’s secretary-general, said Japanese
investors remain top for foreign investment this year. They have sought BOI
promotional privileges for 195 projects with a combined investment amount of
57 billion baht, 42% higher than 40 billion last year. Most projects involve
investment in autos and parts, machinery and metal, and electronics and
electrical appliances.
According to surveys by various organizations such as BOI,
Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO), and Japanese Chamber of Commerce,
Japanese companies in Thailand see the country as politically and socially
stable. They feel there is still promising economic growth in Thailand’s
future. According to rising requests for BOI privileges, Japanese investors
have plans to expand investment in Thailand this year and in the next 5
years. (TNA)
Bank of Thailand’s policy committee maintains repurchase rate
The Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee has
decided to maintain the 14-day repurchase rate at 2%, but conceded it was
ready to ease the interest policy if the economic situation deteriorated.
Bandid Nijthavorn, assistant governor of BOT’s Monetary
Policy Group, said the committee agreed at last week’s meeting to keep the
rate unchanged for a while. However, should the external economic situation
worsen to the extent that it could affect Thailand’s economic growth; the
body would not hesitate to cut the repo.
Bandid said regional and global economies have been
subject to uncertainty. This is mostly due to higher oil prices and fears of
a possible war between the United States and Iraq. The financial and capital
markets around the world have also been volatile. Since the situation
remains uncertain the BOT intends to be vigilant.
According to the BOT’s estimate, the US economy will
expand at a lower rate than previously expected. This is one of the reasons
the committee saw a need to maintain the repo rate for a while before making
a decision on a policy change.
Bandid added that the Thailand’s economy continued to
grow in the past eight months, boosted by the improved production,
consumption, investment and export. The BOT’s ‘wait and see’ stance
stems form figures which show that Thailand’s economy is expected to grow
and will gain momentum next year. The country’s external position remains
strong given high foreign currency reserves.
Recent flooding in parts of the country is expected to
have little impact on the country’s general economic growth because the
farming areas affected were small.
The committee concluded that estimated inflation would
increase along with economic recovery, but would not exceed the target of
0-3.5%. (TNA)
Thai farm products still competitive
in Chinese market
Some local farm products are still competitive in the
Chinese market following the entry of China into the World Trade
Organization and the establishment of ASEAN-China Free Trade Area, according
to the Industrial Economics Department.
These products include rice, natural rubber, cassavas,
fresh fruits, and processed foods such as frozen chicken and shrimp. Even
the export of rice still has potential export growth in the Chinese market.
According to the department’s latest analysis report,
the Chinese government has been encouraging farmers to grow the kind of
short and long-grain rice that is close to the quality of Thai jasmine rice.
However, most of the regions in China that will
accommodate this kind of paddy are either in flood prone areas or are
affected by short growing seasons as winter approaches. This makes for
unpredictable and volatile production. (TNA)
Thai jewelry industry not affected
by terrorist attacks overseas
A spate of terrorist attacks overseas has had no impact
on the local jewelry industry as purchase orders for the product continued
to be placed, particularly on the eve of Christmas.
Sunantha Tiasuban, chief financial officer of Pranda
Jewelry Plc, said the company’s revenue had not been affected by a hefty
increase in gold prices in the past few months since the firm fixed gold
costs when clients placed buying orders.
Sunantha said neither has the Thailand’s jewelry
industry been affected by present fears of a war between the USA and Iraq.
Generally, orders keep coming in especially since the holiday season is
close including Christmas for which there is a high demand for jewelry.
She said that in particular, orders placed with Pranda
had already exceeded its production capacity. Generally, the performance of
the Thai jewelry industry is expected to improve this year.
Main destinations for local jewelry include the US,
Europe and Middle East countries. (TNA)
SET plans road shows in US and Europe early next year
In an attempt to expand its foreign investor base, the
Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) is planning road shows in the United States
and Europe early next year.
Kittirat Na Ranong, president of SET, said he will invite
key figures from private companies and state agencies including Finance
Minister Somkid Jatusripitak to take part.
Kittirat said, “We will present information concerning
the capital market in all respects both positively and negatively so foreign
investors can receive as much information and hard facts on our markets as
possible. We will also give information on the privatization of state
enterprises. There are some obstacles in the privatization of some
enterprises, but the process still continues. We believe the investors will
be satisfied with what we are doing.”
Commenting on the investment climate on the SET and world
wide markets, Kittirat said he feels that Thailand and other regional
markets are beginning to stabilize. He said that stock markets around the
world have plunged mainly because a lot of investors adopted a short-sell
strategy since they are nervous about external factors including terrorist
activities and perhaps impending war with the USA and Iraq. He believes
prices of stocks with strong fundamentals in the Thai bourse will recover
from the sharp fall. (TNA)
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