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Money matters: Scott Campbell’s views on Thailand
Written at the start of May 2004
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
Continuing our mini-series on the views imparted by
Scott Campbell, the portfolio manager whose ‘Growth Fund’ has been
judged by S&P to be the best in its sector for the last 6 years,
during his first ever visit to Bangkok, last month we turn our attention,
once again, to equities – the party’s over.
I have reduced exposure to emerging markets,
convertible bonds and any remaining Western Hemisphere equities at the
start of this week. Whilst we only had 35% equity exposure, a large number
of the indicators we follow have turned negative. The espoused rhetoric
from equity participants is that the market which is due a pull back after
the past 12 month rally, is more than likely to be wrong and that reality
will be that the bear market has resumed. We retain significant Japanese
and resource/commodity equity exposure only.
Dow Theory sees a bear. Russell’s Primary Trend Index
(PTI) has turned negative for the first time since March last year whilst
traditional Dow confirmation theory of Industrial v Transportation also
points to a top. Technical analysts saw 1122 on the S&P500 as an
important resistance and this has now been decisively broken. The Belkin
report, a closely followed analysis by US hedge funds has turned bearish;
in fact the long short equity hedge funds themselves have turned more
bearish than bullish according to Van Hedge Fund Consultants. Importantly
the VIX was at very complacent levels and is now rising rapidly as the
option traders start to get busy and even some of the mainstream banks we
monitor have turned bearish. It is important to remember that the Japanese
market of the 1990’s had 3 of these 50% entrancement rallies!
The irony is that Corporate America is in pretty good
shape. However the valuations are stretched. According to James Montier at
Dresdner Kleinwort in London, the main rationale for these valuations is
that of low interest rates. However, Montier points out, “Here the
fallacy of low rates being good for equities is clearly exposed. Your best
chance of high real returns is buying when interest rates are high, not
low”. His research showed that, for the 10 years following a low
interest rate environment, returns were negative. The reason is simple,
the best chance of multiple (P/E) ratio expansion is when interest rates
are high and when rates are low you face a very high risk of contraction
or stagnation. P/E contraction from 20-30 times will be the major issue
over the next cycle as earnings have now stabilised.
On top of this important point, the US consumer and
Bush government have not repaired their balance sheets in the same manner
and the big picture will more than likely dominate for the foreseeable
future. We evaluate the first of these two below.
US consumer
confidence
One of the most important big picture issues for 2004
will be US consumer confidence. Despite massive US GDP growth late in
2003, 45 year low interest rates and rising property/stock values, the US
consumer is becoming less confident.
The US jobs picture is interesting. Firstly, investors
have become infatuated with the much watched non-farm payroll numbers and
job outsourcing. Business Week tells us that only 11% of the total jobs
lost over the past 3 years have been to outsourcing, however it makes up
90% of the Democratic presidential candidates daily rhetoric??? Perhaps
the actual numbers are immaterial really when compared to the subconscious
effect on Mr Average Punter!
The Michigan Consumer Confidence index is not without
its flaws but is probably the most influential indicator of what the US
consumer is saying. The March number fell back fractionally from 94.4 to
94.1 with the consensus expecting 94.5, after a big fall in February. The
index was consistently above 100 between 1997 and 2001 but then the US
economy was creating 300,000 new jobs per month. ABN Amro argue that this
number is meaningless and we should concentrate on what the consumer is
doing, not saying? Our view is that the subconscious effect of no jobs is
slowly affecting confidence and will eventually flow into retail sales,
savings rates and household debt ratios, so saying results in doing
eventually.
With regard to doing, retail sales in the US continue
to be relatively strong and the tax cuts over the next couple of months
will no doubt help. But strength six months out with the political
rhetoric getting louder and budgets getting tighter, remains to be seen.
Another indicator, the ABS News/Money Magazine consumer
comfort index (not struggling for a sponsor I see) fell by 7 points to a
12 week low of -13 early in March. This was the biggest one week drop in
18 years, with this sort of decline only occurring twice before, in Jan
2001 and Feb 1990. In both cases a recession followed the plunge in
confidence numbers.
US consumers have held this so called economic revival together and
their resilience will be sorely tested over the next 6 to 12 months,
especially with such high debt levels.
The above data and research was compiled from sources believed to be
reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its officers can
accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above article nor
bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any actions
taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For more
information please contact Graham Macdonald on graham@mbmg-international
.com
Snap Shots: Andy Warhol
by Harry Flashman
Last week I covered the passing of the legendary Henri
Cartier-Bresson, an artist/photographer remembered for his ability to
record the human psyche in all its depth and complexity. By comparison,
let us look at another artist/photographer who is remembered for his
ability to record the human psyche in all its shallowness (and
complexity). This is Andy Warhol (1928-1987), a complex character himself,
and probably even deeper than Cartier-Bresson.
 David
Hockney by Andy Warhol
Andy Warhol was born in Pittsburgh USA, the son of
Czechoslovakian immigrants. He studied pictorial design and art history,
sociology and psychology, and worked initially as a commercial artist for
Vogue and Harper’s Bazaar and the I. Miller shoe company, where he was
paid per shoe he drew. Andy did not mind this, as he was able to quickly
work out how much he was owed!
In 1962 he produced his silkscreen prints on canvas of
dollar notes, Campbell’s Soup tins, and Marilyn Monroe (copies of which
can be still seen in any copy artist’s studio in Thailand). The 32 soup
cans were a deliberate attempt by Warhol to produce ‘legitimate’ art,
trying to show that the human mind was attracted by the ‘sameness’,
and it was the continuous exposure to those kind of images that produced a
sense of security in the viewer. It was a conundrum of producing ‘art’
from something that was almost the antithesis of art.
From there he branched out into photography as well,
but rather than take carefully arranged photographs, Andy Warhol went the
other way, using a Polaroid camera to record ‘instant’ photographs,
again in the anti-art genre. There are no well lit, carefully posed,
complementary background photographs from his Polaroid era. Look at the
one of artist David Hockney shown here. I have cropped it a little, but
the dreadfully cluttered background still shows. And Andy Warhol could not
have cared less.
In fact, as he then began to move in the Hi-So circles,
Warhol would go out every night and capture the people on film. “You
want to go out every night because you’re afraid if you stay home you
might miss something,” wrote Warhol many years ago.
He had discovered that the life in America was like his
Campbell’s Soup tins. Everyone wanted to be exposed to the public, the
more times the better. The more recognizable, the more ‘famous’ you
had become, and Warhol was the man who would be there. The ‘ultimate’
street photographer. Just as Cartier-Bresson photographed the ordinary
people, Andy Warhol photographed the out of the ordinary people. His
relentless shots taken in Studio 54, the ‘in place’ disco are albums
of freaks, hangers-on, minor celebrities, aging movie stars, starlets
eager for any publicity, drunks, transvestites, designers, people with
designs on being designers, the whole superfluous and superficial crowd.
And Andy got them all, and in some ways recorded an era for posterity.
I think that from originally being a voyeur, Warhol
eventually began to believe his own press and his florid behaviour became
even more outlandish. He made movies of incredible length - Sleep, a six
hour epic and Empire even two hours longer. But of course the world was
ready for someone like this. The post war liberalization was breeding
people who would symbolize the extremes that the new freedoms had brought.
Warhol continued with his entourage around him who I
believe were needed to keep his empire going, as Warhol himself was too
distracted to be able to keep track of what was happening. He was having
showings and exhibitions all over the world, and was treating them all and
the viewers with artistic contempt, his way of shielding himself from the
world or revealing his true introspective nature.
As the world moved into the 80’s, America changed,
and the attitudes changed with it. There were fewer places for people like
Andy Warhol to feel secure in. Reality was returning after the excesses of
the 60’s and 70’s, and the Warhol star was on the wane.
He died from a post-operative complication in 1987, but left us a
record of a time in history that will never be repeated.
Modern Medicine: Repairing broken hearts
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
“Is it possible that Dr. Iain could
write an article on the possibilities of ‘reversing’ heart disease? I
have inherited a bad heart and have also been abusing my heart. I would like
to reverse 60 years of abuse and neglect before I die.”
Well, it’s a big ask, but I’ll try! The first thing
to remember, however, is that you do not reverse 60 years of abuse in 60
minutes, 60 hours or even 60 days. I can do something - but it will take
anything up to 60 months. OK?
The first step is to find out just how bad is your heart?
Unfortunately, many people have no idea of the state of their heart’s
health until it is far too late - they will have had their heart attack. Or
others think that just because their blood pressure is fine, they have an A1
bill of health. That is like going to the garage and getting your tyre
pressures checked, and saying that the engine must then be fine too!
In this man’s case, being 60 years of age, he needs a
full check-up to incorporate looking at all cardiac risk factors - weight,
BP, blood sugar and blood fats, in fact a complete blood and liver screen is
best. There should be an ECG (or EKG if you come from the left hand side of
the Atlantic Ocean), and that is just the beginning.
Now don’t despair at this point. Reversal is possible
because the human body is a dynamic lump of tissue, as opposed to your motor
car. Your body has cells that die and are replaced by new healthy ones. Your
motor car cannot do this. Your body also has an ability called homeostasis,
by which it will automatically attempt to restore itself to ‘as new’
condition. If only our motor cars were that good!
So how do we (you) go about all this? Well, first off,
you have to correct any factors that are out of whack. If any of your blood
tests are outside of the normal range, you have to get them back inside.
Generally this can be done by modifying lifestyle factors, especially diet.
As a quick rule of thumb, go more vegetarian.
If your BP is too high, bring it down. If it is a result
of being overweight, it’s back to modifying lifestyle factors. As a quick
rule of thumb, go more vegetarian and reduce alcohol consumption.
Of course, the first factor that has to be changed
revolves around cigarettes. If you are a smoker, stop immediately. Today.
Now.
Another no-no is salt. From today, no salt added by you
to your food. What is used in cooking can remain, but that’s all.
That’s about everything you have to stop or reduce, now
here are some things you have to start. Firstly, take 100 mgm of aspirin a
day. You can buy this as Cardiprin, all nicely packaged (and expensive), or
you can be a Cheap Charlie like me and break 500 mgm aspirin tabs into
quarters (near enough to 100 mgm).
Next you need to start some exercise. It does not need to
be marathon running, but it needs to be something, and regular. A walk round
the block every day is better than a run every weekend.
By taking my advice, after two years your arteries will be clear of
cholesterol, by three years your lungs will be clean and pink again, and by
five years your cardiac condition will be almost normal. Worth it, surely?
Learn to Live to Learn: What to look for and what to avoid
by George Benedikt
The process of deciding upon schooling for
our children can become onerous, yet this decision is crucial to the future
happiness of all the family. So perhaps the questions we would all like answered
before we consider or visit a potential school are: ‘What should we look
for?’ and ‘What should we avoid?’
First and last, remember, that you are the customer. Become a
‘healthy skeptic’. I know that many parents from non-academic backgrounds
can feel overawed at entering a school environment, especially when their own
experience of schooling may not have been very positive. (I still feel this
myself sometimes!)
Similarly, it is tempting and probably natural, to try and
mould our new experiences to old stereotypes. In this way, we can start feeling
either more or less comfortable. For instance, we might imagine that the Head of
a Primary School might be a “vast, female, dragon” based on our own
reminiscences from when we were at Primary School. Or we might remember the Head
of a particular section of the school we attended as being “incredibly
boring”.
However, it is crucial that upon entering a new school
environment, we are firstly aware of these preconceptions, and secondly, that we
banish them immediately. Because with preconception comes expectation, and it is
possible to create a self-fulfilling picture of what the person addresses us is
actually saying, without looking beyond the words.
At this moment, it is essential to focus on your objectives.
It might be a good idea to make a list of what you consider to be the most
important points you want to make as well as thinking of some questions in
advance of your visits, so that you can ask some of the same questions to the
different people you meet and compare the responses you get.
Perhaps we bring with us a kind of fear for the person we are
meeting for the first time, sometimes based on the false assumption that they
have an academic background that is ‘superior’ to ours. Banish this thought!
Never assume anything, nor take anything for granted. You could be in for a
nasty surprise!
Remember always that you are the customer, and it’s not
only your money (or that of your company if you’re lucky) that you’re going
to be spending, but the daily care and future of your children that you are
going to be entrusting to teacher and carers in a school.
So question them - constantly - based on what you want for
your child. Ask for details in every aspect of education that you desire – the
people you are talking to should be able to answer and substantiate all answers
straight away – to your satisfaction. If they cannot, then this might be the
first indication that this is not the school for you.
Check what you are told, much as you would when you are
buying a car or a house – after all, this is a major decision you are taking.
For example, teacher qualifications should be published and available and should
be consistent with minimum Ministry of Education guidelines.
Similarly, if unfortunately, it is a matter of fact that some
schools ‘manipulate’ results to suit their purposes. For instance, a school
might proclaim that they have achieved excellent exam results – but the
question we should ask is, “how is it possible to look behind the results -
what is the real story behind them?” A school may have achieved 10 ‘A’
grades at IGCSE – but it might be only one outstanding student who has
achieved them all. So ask to see a whole spread of results – this information
should be readily retrievable and gives a much better overall picture of what is
likely to happen to your child.
Ask for records for the past three years at least. Look at
how many students have taken exams in the past few years. Would you (rather than
the person showing you the results) describe them as impressive? Let’s face
it. You are not paying big money for your kid to fail, are you?
My bottom line is very clear. If schools (as they often do)
want to see themselves as a business, well that’s fine. But their end of the
bargain is that they must provide me with what I’m buying – and that means a
quality (and therefore results orientated) education for my child. So I want to
know, I need to know and I deserve to know, what kind of quality assurance
procedures are in place.
What does this mean in terms of schools? Next week we’ll
look at essential and interdependent parts to schools that call themselves,
“International Schools.”
Next week: International Schools; What are they?
Send questions, comments and/or suggestions to [email protected]
 Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hilary (sic),
That was terrible advice to Marty (two weeks ago). You do not know what she
is doing in the bar. At this stage she may just be a waitress. Financial
necessity will have forced her into the move. At 3 months it may not yet be
too late to “save” her as she may not yet have made the transition to
full “bar girl” status. The fact that she originallly (sic)worked in a
cafe demonstrates her reluctance to take the fatal step. In any event Marty
should not be dismissed out of hand and should be encouraged to at least
make some enquiries if he is so inclined. Shame on you!
William Bangkok
Dear Billy from Bangers,
The letter in question related to a young fellow who found that a waitress
in a cafe where he used to drop in for coffee, bobs up three months later
working in a bar. Marty wanted to know if he should try and take her away
from the bar. Did you really read my advice to Marty? I wrote, “She has
her reasons for working there, and they are probably financial.” You
write, “Financial necessity will have forced her into the move.” So you
concur with me on that point. Good start, at least we have some points of
agreement, my blushing Bill. Marty also said he used to pop in regularly to
see her, but she dropped out, did not tell her former work-mates where she
was and did not let Marty know either, so she did not put much stock on
their relationship, now did she. Marty wanted to know if he should try and
get her to leave the bar. There is only one way that would happen, judging
by the very tenuous relationship between them - that is by Marty becoming
her financial supporter. I counselled that he should not start a
relationship based on the girl’s financial need and the presumed ability
he had to supply the cash to cover that need. That advice still stands.
By the way, Bill, I don’t like your very judgmental
ideas on “saving” her and reluctance to take the “fatal step”.
It’s all a bit MCP, Bill. And my name is Hillary, not Hilary, and your
spelling of “originally” is very “original” to say the least. Time
to spend a few hours brushing up on the spelling and attention to detail,
William, instead of trying to take Hillary to task. Shame on you!
Dear Hillary,
The other evening my husband of 20 years called me a
bitch with no provocation from me at all, so I decided to teach him a
lesson, and made him sleep in the spare room that night. He just laughs and
shrugs it off when I ask him about it. This has now been going on for a few
weeks. I am really thinking of leaving. What is your opinion, Hillary?
Extremely Annoyed
Dear Extremely Annoyed,
Perhaps if you bark at him again you will get the answer.
Dear Hillary,
Wee Nit (the adorable) has announced that the family
water-buffaloes have been breeding like rabbits and, consequently, both she
and Ying (the adorable, identical twin sister) are feeling somewhat broody.
I wonder, however, if the pursuit of a Babysingha or two is advisable in
this climate of rising world lubricant prices?
Mistersingha
Dear Mistersingha,
Do not even contemplate reproduction for one nano-second!
The thought that your reneging gene could be continued through your
blood-line is an appalling concept. I would also suggest that if the family
water buffaloes have been seen hopping up behind each other, it might be a
good time to check their bona fides. Do they have furry ears and white
cotton tails? They might be the once thought extinct water rabbitoes, a
close relative of the Canadian jackalope. Do go and check, there’s a good
boy. You have to lie down in the mud, under the rear of the beasts and check
on their credentials. Get wee Nit to take the photo. On receipt I will even
let you off the hook as far as the undelivered champagne and chocolates are
concerned.
Dear Hillary,
After many, many great holidays in your beautiful country
I have decided to come and retire there. I think somewhere in the north
might suit me as it is not so hot as down the southern end. Could you advise
me on the possibilities of purchase of a suitable abode, and how do I get a
requisite visas to stay there with you? I always read your column and enjoy
the advice given out so succinctly.
Sir Francis
Dear Sir Francis,
Don’t come the ducks and drakes with me Petal. Do you
honestly think that Hillary can represent the Thai Immigration office and
give you visa advice? And you certainly wouldn’t be staying with me, Sir
Franky, no matter what kind of visa you have, so you can get that out of
your head for a start. Mind you, if you’re arriving with the Elite card in
your wallet, I can certainly help you run it through a couple of ATM’s. Of
course you can buy a suitable abode, as you put it, but that is the province
of the real estate agents, not agony aunts. Give me a call after you’ve
settled in.
Personal Directions:
Clearing your plate
by Christina Dodd
A few weeks ago I discussed how you could take coaching
skills into your everyday lives as parents, managers, business owners or
employees. Today we ask ourselves, what skills could we learn from our
clients?
One of the bigger steps that many clients take in
transforming their lives and moving closer to their full potential is to
simplify their lives and focus on what they really want.
In public life, celebrities such as Michael Schumacher,
Roger Federer and Tiger Woods are examples of people who have totally
focussed on their goals (although Tiger Woods’ game is said to have
suffered when he fell in love - diverting his focus). So, in this article I
would you to consider how to increase effectiveness by employing the
principles of simplification and focus.
Insights - what’s on your
plate?
When you are keen to develop yourself, your career or
your business, it is easy to take on too much, leading to stress, pressure
and dilution of your attention between various tasks. Have you ever felt
overwhelmed - like there is just too much to do, and nothing gets done
properly? Does that have to be your natural state? One of the most
challenging questions we, as coaches, ask our clients (and you can ask
yourself) is “what can you let go of?”
At first glance the answer is often “nothing”.
Sometimes that answer is the result of the overwhelming (or so seeming)
complexity of our life - we are so focussed on the treadmill, we’ve
forgotten we can get off. As we start to explore what we can let go of - and
you will get your chance later - another issue starts to arise. Many
clients, once they start to challenge the ‘sacred cows’ on their
schedule or job list, come to ask themselves “what is being busy keeping
me from?”
I have previously discussed the importance of having a
vision - and sometimes being too busy keeps us from realising that vision.
We might subconsciously make ourselves busy to avoid something we are
resisting, or to deny ourselves the success we strive for. Unpicking the
exact cause can be difficult, which is why it can be more productive to work
with a trained coach rather than just working through it alone.
At other times we need to stop and ask ourselves whether
the thing we are doing right now takes us closer to, or further away from,
our vision. This is because when we define our vision, we often define it in
terms of something new to attain - a job, a level of financial security, a
number of new clients. If we do want to take on something new, often we have
to let something else go to make room for our new success.
Another issue that arises out of this discussion is the
so-called Pareto Principle, or the 80 / 20 rule. This states that 80% of our
results come from 20% of our efforts - so if we let go of what we are
spending 80% of our effort on, we will achieve much more of what is truly
important to us.
Inspiring you -
clear your plate!
Now that we have established (I hope) the case for
clearing our plate, what is the first step? Would it be useful to know
exactly what is on your plate?
List what is taking your attention - create a baseline of
what you are trying to achieve now - this can be a list if you have a linear
mind, or a mind map or collage if you prefer more visual representations.
Consider the various roles you play in life - parent, spouse, business
owner, employee, etc. You may wish to focus on just one, but for full work /
life synergy considering your whole life might deliver better results.
Now highlight what you can let go of. Be bold, aim to cut
the list by 30%. You may not want to drop these commitments immediately -
you might wish to phase out of committees or particular projects over time.
Some things you might be able to delegate, or outsource to someone else
(whether at work or in the home).
Challenge yourself to be creative - don’t take no for
an answer from yourself. Really try to cut out things that are not aligned
with your vision (you do have a vision, don’t you?). Search for ways of
achieving what you want in life without doing so much.
Once you start to clear the plate, it’s imperative you
say no to new commitments unless they are completely aligned with your
vision and you can let go of something else. It is no good clearing your
life, just to let new distractions in!
Honour the power of three. Our minds seem to work best
when we have no more than three main projects to work on. Can you narrow
your focus down to three main important areas? Have another look at your
vision and purpose, and decide which three commitments will be most
productive in fulfilling that vision.
And if you recall last time I posed the most powerful
coaching question, once you have decided what you can let go of, ask
yourself “what else?”
In parting, some thoughts of others on gaining focus and
achieving more in less time:
“He who begins many things finishes but a few” -
Italian Proverb
“The real act of discovery consists not in finding new
lands. But in seeing with new eyes” - Marcel Proust
“Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is
probably why so few engage in it” - Henry Ford
As you may have realised, having a supportive, objective
professional to support you in clearing your plate and simplifying your life
can be a huge factor in your success.
Until next time, have a fabulous week!
For more details about our life coaching services,
personal and professional skills development programs, please email me
directly at christina [email protected] or visit our website
www. asiatrainingassociates.com
Psychological Perspectives: The “whys” of behavior
by Michael Catalanello,
Ph.D.
Do you ever wonder what influences people
to do the things they do? When you see a person give money to a beggar or
comfort a person in distress, for example, what conclusions might you draw
concerning the causes of that person’s behavior? When you see a person
behave rudely or crudely, what do you make of it? Do you imagine
“heredity” or “personality traits” to play a significant role in
determining what people do? What about the person’s upbringing, or her
childhood experiences? By contrast, to what extent do immediate societal
pressures influence people’s behavior?
Our answers to such questions help us make sense of our
world. They can also, in turn, influence our own response to events. If,
for example, you interpret a friend’s inattentiveness as a sign of her
aloof nature, you might respond with impatience or disdain. If, by
contrast, you decide that your friend is distracted by worries or concerns
of the moment, you might respond more compassionately.
The explanations we form concerning people’s behavior
are called attributions by cognitive psychologists. Attribution
theory examines the process by which people make judgements about the
causes of other people’s behavior, as well as other events. The term
“attributional style” is used to refer to a consistent bias a person
might exhibit when forming judgments about the causes of events.
A common attributional style is revealed in an
interesting Thai custom. If a Thai sees you performing a kind or noble act,
he might compliment you by using the phrase, “jai dee,” literally,
“good heart.” If, instead, you are caught performing an unkind act, or
behaving selfishly, he might use the term “jai dam,” or “black
heart” to characterize you. Thus, your behavior, good or bad, is assumed
to reflect something stable about your personality, or identity.
This inclination to form judgments about the character
of a person, based upon observing a bit of that person’s behavior, is by
no means peculiar to the Thai people. Researchers in social psychology
suggest that we humans, when making judgments about causation, are
generally inclined to overestimate the influence of personal traits on
people’s actions. Conversely, we tend to underestimate the power of the
situational context in which the behavior occurs. This bias is known by
theorists as the “fundamental attribution error.” Although it might not
be obvious to us, the existence of this attributional bias is well
established by a compelling body of research in psychology.
One such study, by Jones and Harris in 1967, arranged
for subjects to read a speech that was either favorable, or unfavorable to
the Cuban dictator, Fidel Castro. Some subjects were told the speech writer
had freely chosen the position reflected in the speech. Others were told
that the position had been assigned to the speech writer by someone in
authority. Not surprisingly, when subjects thought the position had been
freely chosen, they were more likely to assume that the it represented the
writer’s true attitude. Even when they were told the position (pro or
con) had been assigned, however, there was a tendency to assume that the
writer’s attitude was consistent with that reflected in the speech. In
short, the subjects were more inclined to attribute the behavior (speech
writing) to personal causes, than to situational ones.
Results like these suggest that when we see people
performing acts of kindness we primarily consider the behavior to result
from personal characteristics, such as goodness and virtue. We seem
inclined to view those who perform cruel acts as intrinsically cruel and
perverse. We readily classify people and groups as “good” or “bad,”
based upon their actions.
It is interesting to notice the fundamental
attribution error at work in political events of our time. A famous
example of the fundamental attribution error is provided by former U.S.
President Ronald Reagan’s use of the term, “evil empire” to refer to
the former Soviet Union. More recently, current U.S. President Bush used
the phrase “axis of evil” to refer to Iran, Iraq and North Korea. The
late Iranian leader Ayatollah Khomeini’s pet name for the U.S. was,
“the Great Satan.” The overused phrase, “evil dictator” is a clich้.
It is similarly common for someone in politics to attack the character of
his political opponent.
It is, perhaps, easier and more expedient to make such
gross generalizations than to spend time and effort trying to understand
the situational factors influencing those whose acts we view as evil.
If you disagree with the above, you might dismiss this
as the inane ramblings of some “nutty professor.” If you agree you
might conclude that the writer is an unusually gifted and insightful
person. In either case, your judgment would be influenced by the fundamental
attribution error.”
Dr. Catalanello is a licensed as a psychologist and a
member of the Liberal Arts Faculty at Asian University in Jomtien. Address
questions or comments to: [email protected]
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