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Money matters: Scott Campbell’s views on Thailand
(Written at the start of May 2004)
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
Continuing our mini-series on the views imparted by
Scott Campbell, the portfolio manager whose ‘Growth Fund’ has been
judged by S&P to be the best in its sector for the last 6 years,
during his first ever visit to Bangkok, last month we turn our attention,
once again, to Oil and to hedge funds.
Oil prices have risen steadily since last February
after OPEC agreed to reduce official production quotas by 1m barrels a day
from the 1st of April to prevent a build up of
supplies during the second quarter of the year and NYMEX Oil futures have
been very volatile at levels just below US$38 a barrel. The big question
is whether oil is a medium to longer term investment opportunity?
Martin Spring, in his private newsletter on global
strategy mid-March concluded that there is a persuasive case for a core
holding of energy, particularly hydrocarbons (oil and natural gas) in any
equity portfolio. At the time of writing crude oil is currently trading
17% above its average price last year and global demand shows no sign of
weakening. Oil stocks in the US, the biggest consumer, are at their lowest
levels since 1975, while in the advanced nations as a whole, stocks are
only enough to meet 28 days use. The basis of Martin Spring’s article
forms the core of the conclusion below.
At the conclusion of the Iraq war, oil prices were
meant to be closer to US$20 a barrel but several factors have been driving
up prices: The most significant has been demand from China. Last year
China accounted for more than a third of the global increase in demand and
overtook Japan to become the world’s second biggest importer after the
US. Secondly, supply disruptions in major producers such as Venezuela,
Nigeria and Iraq have prevented a build up of stocks from their low
levels. The OPEC cartel instructed its members to cut production next
month in an attempt to keep prices above US$30 to offset the weakening
purchasing power of dollars. Finally, investor interest in commodities as
an asset class has seen speculators buying oil, with the net long position
in futures contracts representing about 70 million barrels of crude.
Arguments for and against the future of oil prices are:
Bears conclude that with the US and China facing economic slowdown and
growth sluggish in Europe and Japan, global demand for oil will go flat.
The US maybe, but Asian demand should sustain a 2%pa growth rate for the
foreseeable future. Higher prices are undoubtedly encouraging exploration
and development activity, especially in Russia, Central Asia and West
Africa which will increase supply and reduce dependence on the Middle East
but this can take years and numerous dollars. Geological, infrastructure
and political difficulties of developing new production will also inhibit
expansion. Giant oilfields such as Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar, Alaska’s
Prudhoe Bay and the UK’s North Sea are approaching the end of their
productive lives and no fields of equivalent size have been found to
replace them.
Optimal Fund Management concludes that oil is a
tangible asset, a scarce resource and not easily replaced or created.
Supply is limited and demand is bullish from the emerging economies. This
fits with our medium term portfolio strategy of overweighing tangible
assets versus financial assets. A rapid rise in the oil price may also be
a double edged sword in that it would be very bearish for the developed
markets’ fragile debt laden economies. Technically, US$40 a barrel is
key resistance level and if broken could lead to a major breakout.
Commodities will be the story for 2004 even though a stronger USD may
temper extravagant gains. We are bullish.
The easy way to play this theme is to buy the major oil
companies. However, these stocks are not performing and suffer from a
number of corporate accounting excesses that trouble financial and
industrial stocks i.e. Shell and its recent reserve problems.
The second option is to buy a fund that invests in
diverse portfolio of energy stocks within all capitalisations. We prefer
this latter VALUE route and the Guernsey open-ended Investec Global Energy
Fund is a solid performer, managed by Tim Guinness a very experienced
investment professional. For those who prefer listed trusts or the New
York listed ETF funds the iShares Dow Jones US Energy Sector Index Fund,
iShares Goldman Sachs Natural Resources Fund, iShares S&P Global
Energy Sector Index Fund, HOLDRS Oil Services or SPDR – Energy can
provide exposure. For the more aggressive investors, buying oil futures
via spread bets and the like is also an option.
Short term noise surrounding supply and demand will
probably increase but the long term fundamentals of oil as an investment
class is one that clients should consider as a satellite to a core holding
in an Optimal Fund Management managed fund.
Is it just me or is there a proliferation of hedge fund
of funds managers appearing on the scene? Everyone from large insurance
companies, main stream asset management companies, banks, consulting
actuaries and boutique investment firms/family offices are aligning
themselves or setting up hedge fund of funds products these days. It is
almost a question of anyone who can buy the Pertac system, subscribe to
the TASS or MAR hedge database and produce simulated 10 year sharp/sortino
ratios, is in the game. In fact you can now buy the hedge fund index with
10% performance fees, which was exactly what these managers were trying to
avoid in the first place?
The FT reported this week in FTfm that Schroders are in
secret (or not so secret as the case may be) talks to buy Blaine
Tomlinson’s Financial Risk Management, a hedge fund of funds boutique
based in London. This follows on from the Man Group purchase of Swiss
based RMF and Pioneer’s purchase of hedge fund of fund operator Momentum
UK last year. The FT headlines this with “Hedge funds on the brink of
big time” and forecast that the industry can grow from the current 2% of
investable assets to 7% of US$2,500bn in the next ten years.
Capacity has always been the key issue with hedge fund
investing. Getting capacity with managers and maximum capacity within a
particular strategy are very important questions? GAM, a leader in hedge
multi management has closed many of its multi management hedge funds over
recent weeks as capacity constraints cause the portfolio managers
headaches. Admittedly GAM has had massive inflows and this makes the
decision easier but it does show that if companies are honest with their
existing clients, performance will be diluted even at these asset levels,
due to capacity constraints. The one positive I can see from this is that
the GAM sales director will be able to spend more time watching the
England v New Zealand cricket series next month!
It all sounds a bit like INDEXATION as an equity
management style in 1999. Companies such as BGI and State Street were
winning all the pension fund mandates, as tracking error was low, and this
was the “best” way for trustees to allocate to equity markets. Oh, the
FT also reported last week that 2 large UK pension funds are to commence
allocating large amounts of capital to hedge fund of funds. Caveat Emptor?
Optimal Fund Management has long advocated the use of
hedge funds to reduce portfolio volatility and enhance risk adjusted
returns and currently maintain 30% in global portfolios. There are many
very good hedge fund of fund operators but as Barton Biggs highlighted a
couple of years ago, a bubble is forming is this investment style. In our
opinion, the real skill is calculating when to be overweight hedge funds
and when to acknowledge that being infatuated with them can be dangerous
in relative or absolute terms.
Where are the opportunities in hedge funds for the year
ahead? Directional strategies such as long short equity, global macro and
distressed securities have performed very well of late but it appears time
to be taking profits or at least not adding new monies to these strategies
in the short term. Many equity hedge managers have a long bias and with
valuations stretched, with the noted exception of Japan, the best may be
over for a while. Merger Arbitrage is struggling with capacity and
performed badly in February. Talks with brokers in New York reveal that
merger arbitrage managers are doing deals that they wouldn’t normally do
as the pressure mounts, notwithstanding the amount of new Wall St merger
deals being announced.
Volatility is undoubtedly likely to be higher in
equity, currency, bond and commodity markets. In this scenario, the
winning styles will be equity market neutral, CTA’s and fixed income
arbitrage. Many commodity traders need trends to develop and according to
David Harding, principle of Winton Capital, and one of the founders of AHL,
“It’s a bonanza for us. There are plenty of these long term trends in
the market.”
Trends in commodity and financial futures led the CTA
index up 6% in February and this is likely to continue as volatility
rises. Equity Market Neutral has had a lacklustre time of late but is
picking up just as “quality” returns to the market and fundamental
stock pickers are finding it easier to make money with no beta adjusted
bias. Finally, some fixed income arbitrage managers will benefit from the
US treasury market volatility and an overweight position in these
strategies should yield solid results.
In summary, hedge funds of funds, if managed correctly, are a solid
stable asset class but the time to have been overweight was early in 2000
and perhaps a neutral position is best advocated today. Infatuation with
any investment style can be dangerous and best tempered when in the
newspapers.
The above data and research was compiled from sources believed to be
reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its officers can
accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above article nor
bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any actions
taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For more
information please contact Graham Macdonald on graham@mbmg-international
.com
Snap Shots: Giving your subjects the golden glow
by Harry Flashman
 Ever
looked at those wonderful photographs of people positively ‘glowing’
with health and vitality and wondered whether people actually ever look
like that? Sickeningly brimming full of goodness, and golden hues just
radiating from their every pore. Well, I am sorry to tell you, but like so
many things in photography, it is a fraud! A photographic ‘trick’ but
one that you can use to your own advantage. A trick that will cost you
about 100 baht for the equipment and three minutes to master!
However, all photographic tricks still have to conform
to the basic rules of physics, in particular the rules of light. Light
travels in straight lines and will bounce off any non-translucent object.
And that, quite simply, is the scientific basis to this trick.
The ‘golden glow’ that comes from the subject in
the photo is really just reflected golden light, bounced back on to the
subject. People shots benefit from this warm healthy look and when you use
the technique properly, the subjects will look many years younger because
you can get rid of saggy chins quicker than a plastic surgeon can say,
“Get your wallet out!”
Now in the photographic sense, the natural golden glow
comes in the late afternoon, with the sun getting low on the horizon.
There are good scientific reasons why this is so, but here is not the
place to discuss them. Just accept the fact that late afternoon sun is the
“warm” time. Take pictures at this time of day and you will get that
golden glow - but our photographic trick will allow you to get that warm
golden glow at any time of day - and control it as well, something you
cannot do so easily with the sun as your light source!
What you have to do is build a light reflector that
reflects that warm colour. Go to the newsagent and get some gold foil
paper. The sort of wrapping paper you use for wedding gifts. It may be
embossed or patterned, and in fact it is better if it is, but must be gold
in colour. Glue the gold paper on to a sheet of cardboard or polystyrene
sheet approximately one metre square. You do not have to be deathly
accurate or neat. If the surface gets a little ‘scrunched up’ that is
fine too. Your capital outlay is probably around 50-100 baht. Not bad, so
far!
Now you have a reflector, which if you play with it
near a window for example, will shine “gold” on to any subject. You
are now ready to impart that golden glow.
The best photos for this exercise are people shots
taken outdoors, with the sun behind the subject. This we call ‘back
lit’. You will find that the subject’s hair becomes very bright around
the edges, almost like a ‘halo’ effect.
Now for the addition of the golden glow. To do this,
you position your reflector to shine some sunlight back towards the
subject. Prop the reflector in the best position to give the degree of
golden glow you want (I generally just prop it up with the camera bag, or
you can get an assistant to hold it for you) and look through the
viewfinder. See what a difference this makes? The ugly chin shadow has
gone as the light is coming upwards, and the subject now looks brilliantly
glowing and healthy. The one metre square reflector will also impart
catchlights to eyes to make them sparkle as well. The end photo has shiny
hair, bright eyes and a golden complexion radiating warmth. A fabulous
picture.
Now, the downside! It is more difficult to get the correct exposure
setting in the backlit situation. If your camera has a Backlight button,
then use it. If not, walk in close to the subject so that the person’s
face fills the frame, and take your exposure reading from there. Use the
exposure lock, or just memorise the readings and put them in on manual
mode. It is worth it.
Modern Medicine: Use by ... ?
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
My wife is scrupulous about expiry dates.
If the wrapper on the bread says 26th of August, I can guarantee it will be
in the bin on the 27th. Even though it has been kept in the refrigerator and
there is no sign of mould and I wanted toast on the morning of the 27th. At
the stroke of midnight my toast becomes unfit for human consumption!
After that long-winded introduction, this week’s
article relates to the expiry dates of medications, a question that is often
asked of me. And just why they have a “Use By” date at all.
The first concept you have to get your head around is why
medications, and even tablets and capsules, have an “expiry” date. The
reason is simple, and can be compared to wine that has become “corked”.
When wine goes “off”, a chemical change has occurred, and the pleasant
tasting wine becomes vinegar. Likewise, with medications, which are all
chemicals (even aspirin, which is acetyl salicylic acid), a chemical change
occurs and the original medication is no longer the same chemical compound.
This means that its ‘bio-availability’ is not the same any longer.
However, like 60 kph speed limits where 59 kph is
“safe” and 61 kph is “dangerous” - a totally ludicrous concept, the
same exists for the expiry date on medications. If it says use before 26th
of August it does not mean that on the 27th of August the medication changes
into chalk. In today’s non risk taking world, the manufacturers are
covering their posteriors. They have to imagine that you are going to
maltreat their medications and the expiry date really represents the
“worst case” scenario.
Let me assure you that on the 27th of August, that
medication is still good (just like my loaf of bread). In fact, many of the
charity organizations go around the doctors’ surgeries in the western
world, collecting “out of date” drugs to be used in the developing
world. In Vietnam a few years ago the pharmacies used to sell medications
with the expiry date cut off the foil wrappings. You can guess where they
came from!
Another reason for short expiry times could be that the
shorter it keeps, the more has to be manufactured and bought. But of course
the large drug companies wouldn’t think that way, would they? That’s
just a thought from old cynical brains like mine!
So how should you store your prescription medicines? Well
the first thing is to look at the box and it generally tells you the ideal
storage place and temperature, but if it doesn’t then you won’t go far
wrong with storing it in the door of the household refrigerator. This is
particularly so for liquids, suspensions, eye drops and the like; however,
with opened bottles, there is always a very short expiry on them, generally
around 30 days from the date of opening. Do not be tempted to extend this
time. It is not worth it.
For individually wrapped tablets in blister packs or
foil, then a cool dark cupboard is fine, but for capsules, it is even more
important to keep them cool. Again the door of the fridge is a good place.
There is one other important consideration regarding
keeping medications at home - children. You must keep drugs away from all
children. Many medications are brightly coloured, suspensions are sweet and
children are attracted by them.
And my loaf of bread? My chemical engineering mate Alan
Coates tells me it oxidizes, but not right on the stroke of midnight!
Learn to Live to Learn: Accreditation
by George Benedikt
Accreditation by external bodies is perhaps the single most
important pointer towards a quality school. International bodies such as the
Council for International Schools (CIS) and the IBO (International Baccalaureate
Organization) employ rigorous processes for accreditation and regularly check
(about once every five years actually) to ensure the accredited school is
complying with the (published) criteria for authorization. These bodies are the
parent’s friend and will want to talk to existing parents whenever they come
and make their inspections.
 If you are in a school which you think is failing to meet
criteria and the school seems resistant to change, go direct to the
accreditation body. They want to hear from you.
If visiting a school for the first time, ask for proof of a
school’s accreditation, then inquire when the last inspection was and then
(this is where you get clever) ask when the previous before that was. If there
has been more than one inspection in the last three years, something’s up. Ask
for a copy of the report – and you will soon discover whether the school has
anything to hide.
If school is ‘in the process of applying’ for
accreditation, then ask when this process began. Some schools might seem like
they have been ‘applying’ for years.
Extra Curricular Programmes
Modern educational movers, such as the IBO, recognize that
‘learning which goes on outside the classroom is just as important as learning
that goes on within the classroom’. If you have ever seen a wonderfully
produced school play or listened to the school orchestra or danced to the sound
of the school band, then I’m sure you will agree. In fact, it’s not a bad
way to find out how well a school carries out an extra-curricular programme –
ask “how was the last Christmas show?” Ask a parent.
Some schools might make a cursory gesture towards
extra-curricular programmes whilst others might present a facade of interest and
more still probably do a great job. So ask the children you see and meet –
what do they do? Do they enjoy it? And perhaps just as importantly, does the
teacher whose teaching them seem to enjoy it? Just like any other part of school
life, the extra curricular programme should be rigorously monitored by
management to ensure that you, the customer, are getting what you pay for.
English Language Education
Obviously, one of the prime motivating factors for choosing
an international school education (notwithstanding French Lycees and German
Schules) is the fact that the curriculum is delivered in the English Language.
This can provide continuation if you’re coming from an English-based national
system and bi-lingualism if you’re not.
Happily, there is a wide choice of schools delivering a
variety of curricula in the English language in this area and in later issues I
will look in depth at the best of the bi-lingual schools.
In the case of international schools you might want to look
very closely at the EAL (English as an Additional Language) provision in the
school as well how the school provides for an EAL student in the mainstream -
that is - on a day-to-day basis when your child is learning all their subjects
in a ‘new’ language. Provision should last at least two years, which
research shows is just about the minimum amount of time needed to attain
‘academic’ fluency in a new language.
Watch out for significant extra costs here which are often
levied by stealth and can cause heated disputes. Disreputable schools are hoping
you won’t just pull your kid out because of the upheaval this involves.
Something to watch out for (which goes to the heart of what
schools think is international about themselves) is that some schools actively
ban any language use (notwithstanding foreign language learning) other than
English when in school, which means that your student might be penalized for
speaking their native tongue (Thai for instance) when they need help or
assistance from a friend, or just want to chat. So, beware the words, ‘We only
speak English here!’ if you wish your child to maintain their bilingualism, or
to be encouraged to develop multilingual proficiency.
However, equally, you might prefer a school to demonstrate
its allegiance to one nationality or national system over another, such as an
“American school’ or a ‘British school’ might be expected to do. If that
is so, then you might also prefer for the dominant language to be encouraged,
possibly to the de facto exclusion of others.
Foreign Language provision is also an important factor in
choosing the right school, and is a subject I will go into in greater depth in
future.
Next week: Location and Fees
Send questions, comments and/or suggestions to editor @pattayamail.com
 Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
I married my Thai fianc้e after a year of engagement. She is a
professional lady and we have always done everything in a proper fashion. My
wife is 15 years younger than me and this gives us a problem. When we go
out, many foreigners assume that my wife must be, or have been, a bar girl
even though she in no way acts like one. She has no tattoos or wears sexy
dresses or even smokes. I realize that as high as 85 percent of all
Thai-foreigner marriages are between bar girls and “sex tourists”, but
this is not so for other 15 percent of Thai-foreigner marriages. Please tell
your readers that not all Thai-foreigner marriages are between bar girls and
“sex tourists,” and stop making false assumptions.
Jack
Dear Jack,
Now you’ve got all that off your chest, do you feel a little better,
Petal? However, I think you have made a few false assumptions yourself too.
Where did you get that figure of 85 percent of Thai-foreigner marriages are
between bar girls and what you call “sex tourists”? Let me assure you
that sex tourists do not come to Thailand to get married. That is why they
are sex tourists - they want the fun in bed without the filling out forms at
the local Ampur office. Honestly, Jack, 85 percent of Thai foreigner
marriages are between people such as yourself and your wife. The foreigners
who “look down” on you are the foreigners who are not in the marriage
market, just the bar meat market. Ignore them, my Petal.
Dear Hillary,
Advice needed urgently, Hillary my Petal! There I was at
a new bar and met this vision of loveliness. She speaks very little English
but seems like a very genuine person. She comes from Buriram, and that’s
about all I managed to find out after about four hours and several “lady
drinks”. The biggest problem was only that she doesn’t speak much
English, but we got by OK. By the end of the night I was pretty drunk and
lent her 5000 baht. What should I do? Should I keep going, or should I give
up now before I get in too deep?
Nelson
Dear Nelson,
You’ve got the telescope to the blind eye. Haven’t
you! After four hours of lady drinks you give this “vision of
loveliness” 5,000 baht. How were you communicating with your vision? It
wasn’t English, according to you, so I presume it must have been in
Braille. Or was it just in mathematics? You certainly did come down in the
last shower. That is 5,000 baht you will never see again. But look at it
this way - there is a very grateful buffalo up there in Buriram, thinking
about you. And by the way, I am not your Petal, Petal!
Dear Hillary,
We read your column every week and want to start a
Hillary Fan Club. Of course we would like you to be the patron of honour.
Where can we contact you?
Three Fans
Dear Three Fans,
Hillary is blushing, but you really are very silly
people. How can you contact me? You just did, Petal, didn’t you? But if
you really want to start such a club, I will be delighted to be patron of
honour (but definitely not matron of honour) provided you charge a hefty
annual subscription (keeps the riff-raff out) and the money is donated to my
favourite charity, the Champagne and Chocolate Fund for Aging Agony Aunts (CCFAAA).
Let me know when you’re up and running, Petal.
Dear Hillary,
My wife went out the other night with a girl friend for
what she called a ‘girls night out’ and came home at two in the morning
well under the weather. What do you think I should do about it?
The Weather Forecaster
Dear Weather Forecaster,
Sounds like you had better get her an umbrella and a rain
coat real soon.
Dear Hillary,
A few weeks ago a guy wrote asking whether you thought
his letters to his Thai girlfriend had got through as he had gotten no
reply. I thought you really brushed him off too lightly. This is a real
problem, as I have had letters go missing many times when I have posted them
from overseas to my girlfriend in Pattaya. It is not only Pattaya, as
letters I have sent to girls in Bangkok, Chiang Mai, Korat, Khon Kaen and
Phuket have also gone missing. I think you shouldn’t just dismiss these
real problems for guys overseas. It is very worrying when you don’t get
anything back.
Steve from the Sandbox
Dear Sandbox Steve,
Are you really serious, or are you trying to impress me
with how many Thai girlfriends you have? The answer to all your problems is
called the email system. You can write away to your heart’s content and be
happy in the knowledge that all the Noys, Aoys and Toys will get your
undying love - though you will obviously have to do yours with a CC to
Bangkok, Chiang Mai, Korat, Khon Kaen, Phuket, etc, because I am sure you
are far too busy to write separate emails! Only problem is getting the A
drive to accept the $100 banknotes that will be asked for!
PC Blues - News and Views:
Windows XP SP2 release
The latest news I have is that
the delayed patch for SP2 is now out. The brave should apply the patch
immediately.
The more cautious should back up their systems before
applying the patch.
The cowards will back up their systems, and see if they can
restore the backup, before doing anything else.
IBM has told its employees not to jump the gun, while its
test department tries it out. IBM apparently knows of certain incompatibilities
between the patch and other software it considers critical.
The patch is expected to cure the following:
Pop-up ads blocked
Revamped firewall on by default
Outlook Express, Internet Explorer and Windows Messenger
warn about attachments
Origins of downloaded files logged
Web graphics in e-mail no longer loaded by default
Some spyware blocked
Users regularly reminded about Windows Updates
Security Center brings together information about
anti-virus, updates and firewall
Protection against buffer over-runs
Windows Messenger Service turned off by default
In all seriousness, if any of these apply to you, you should
probably apply the patch, but only after backing up your systems, and after
ensuring that you can restore your system from the backup.
These days, a simple way of making a backup is by making a
disk image. There is a variety of disk image packages, priced about 40 USD,
which are convenient to use. Some of them will allow you to extract individual
files from the image: others are more simple minded.
You should also consider your backup medium. If you have a
single computer, with small disks, you might rely on backing up to CDs (needing
a CD writer). Alternatively, you might invest in a (new) sufficiently large
hard drive. Of course, you might have a network, with enough spare disc
capacity, and might be able to backup and restore over the network. (Those with
networks are likely to have professionals to perform the upgrade for them. Ask
these professionals what their fall-back strategy is. And then look
unconvinced!)
Whatever you do, make sure you can get your old system back.
Upgrade one machine at a time. If you get a running system,
check that everything works. Find out which packages are no longer needed
(because the upgrade makes them superfluous). Find out how to get awkward
packages running, and take plenty of notes. This will make successive upgrades
easier. Remove the superfluous packages, if any, and check everything you need
still runs. Check your data files are still readable (including off-line
backups).
Configure the new system for whatever level of security is
appropriate to your business.
Make a disk image of the newly upgraded system: make sure
you can restore from it.
It would be wise, at this point, to re-install the old
system, and repeat the upgrade, checking the notes taken during the exercise,
and making further notes as necessary.
Connect it to the internet, and look for patches.
It is probably wise to run the upgraded machine for a while,
to see if any flaws come to light, and to keep watch on internet reports of
upgrade problems, before upgrading any more machines. This would be
particularly wise if the machine is networked, to see if new and old machines
can work together on the same network (am I being paranoid here?)
If you have a number of machines in your business, you
should assign someone full-time to this business. You will probably need to.
Personal Directions:
A flip of the coin: Life’s mistakes or Life’s lessons?
by Christina Dodd
I would like to thank Grace Sutherland who
was the inspiration for this week’s article.
When I coach some people, I sometimes hear them talk of
the past as though they’re crippled by it - regretting having done
something foolhardy or regretting what they haven’t done even more.
Sometimes it’s the future that overwhelms them. They can end up blaming
themselves, others, circumstances, society – anyone really! “If only I
had done this, or hadn’t done that” or “If only I had been brought up
in a better place” or “If only I can plan for this then everything will
be fine”.
Let go of the past
This ‘if only’ mentality traps you, stunts your
growth and makes you wish your life away. Living in the past and harking
back to your mistakes only makes a victim of you. There is absolutely
nothing you can do about the past. It’s gone, over and done with and you
can’t go back there. The only possible way to deal with the past is to let
it guide the future.
Learn in the present
If you think of a mistake as a life-lesson instead, then
actually there are no mistakes, only lessons to be learned and opportunities
to grow. And even then growth is a process of trial and error
experimentation. The “failed” experiments are as much a part of the
process as the experiment that ultimately “works”.
I believe that we’re constantly being called to evolve
and grow. Sometimes we learn the life-lesson the first time round. Sometimes
if blocking beliefs or faulty thinking gets in the way then a lesson is
repeated until it is learned. A lesson can be presented to you in various
forms until you have learned it. When you have learned it, you can then go
on to the next lesson. Learning lessons never ends. You will learn them
whether you want to or not. If you are alive there are lessons to be
learned!
Planning the future
Dreams are essential. Without dreams life would be dull
indeed. Everyone needs hope and I believe is your right to live out your
passions. However, it’s when dreams become your master that they no longer
serve you. There’s great wisdom in having a dream, working towards it
totally in the present, but being detached from the outcome in the future.
Sometimes it’s hard too, not to dream your life away.
You may be in dire straits, wondering how to get out of the mire; wishing
for wealth or great things to happen to you. If this is the case then life
will remind to get real. Wishing and hoping are not the way dreams are made
– except for the occasional real-life fairytale – but for the rest of
the human race great things are achieved by application and hard work.
Wishing, hoping and regretting are a form of procrastination. Dreams often
require hard work and effort and that happens in the present. Ask J.K.
Rowling how many hours she puts in.
Thomas A Edison was another who saw his great success
with inventions as more to do with application than fate.
“Success is 99 percent perspiration and 1 percent
inspiration.”
Work with the present
Whatever you are called to, whether it’s getting used
to a life-change, giving up a pipedream, going after your heart’s desire,
working hard to make living, taking care of others, if you come to terms
with the present and work with whatever you have to overcome then growth is
inevitable. Whatever you do, don’t begin to think that Utopia is out there
if only you had the latest … lover, car, job of your dreams. “Out
there” is no better than “here and now”. When your “there” has
become a “here” you will simply obtain another “there” that will,
again, look better than “here”, (the grass is always greener) but of
course it seldom is.
What you make of life is up to you. You have all the
tools and resources you need right now. What you do with them is up to you.
The choice is yours. Your answers lie inside you. All you need to do is
look, listen and trust.
Be secure in your insecurity
Metamorphosis is an uncomfortable business for a
butterfly. At the point at which it has matured, there is a chemical
reaction that helps make the chrysalis more vulnerable, but, in order for it
to break out the emerging butterfly must fight to get out. This struggle is
necessary for the obvious reason of opening the chrysalis and for a less
obvious reason: without that movement its wings will remain tucked to its
sides. It is the pushing against the chrysalis that helps force the fluids
into the wings and “inflate” them. Without the struggle it won’t
change.
For us too, change can be an uncomfortable business.
Sometimes, like the butterfly, we have to push ourselves beyond our comfort
zones – without any fore-knowledge or certainty about the future – to
see what we’re made of.
It’s not the change itself; it’s the bits in between
when we have nothing to hang on to that make us feel insecure. But a life
lived without risk or challenge is only half a life. Unless we are truly
challenged by something bigger than ourselves we may never know the heights
to which we can aspire.
Until next time, have a fabulous week! And once again aspire to
“…reach for the stars…”!
For more details about our life coaching services,
personal and professional skills development programs, please email me
directly at christina [email protected] or visit our website
www. asiatrainingassociates.com
Psychological Perspectives: Achieving recovery from addiction through stages of change
by Michael Catalanello,
Ph.D.
As anyone who has experienced addiction
will tell you, changing addictive behavior is not an easy thing to do. In
fact, it can be downright difficult. Fortunately, researchers are
continually discovering ways of refining psychological treatment methods to
better help people struggling with addictions to change their behavior and
live more satisfying lives.
In an exciting development in the treatment of
addictions, researchers have theorized that an individual progresses
through a predictable sequence of changes on the path to recovery.
Initially developed for smokers, the Stages of Change Model was
proposed in 1982 by psychologist Dr. James Prochaska and his colleagues.
Its use has subsequently expanded to other types of problems, including
diet, alcohol and substance abuse, eating disorders, and panic disorders.
The Stages of Change Model recognizes that initially, an
addicted individual is not contemplating a change of behavior. Perhaps the
person has not yet reached the conclusion that a problem exists. Perhaps
she has attempted to change in the past, and has not succeeded. The thought
of trying again after such a failure might not be appealing. This first
stage is called precontemplation.
At some point, the person may begin to contemplate
changing. In the case of an alcoholic, this might occur following his
involvement in an automobile accident, or arrest for driving under the
influence. A smoker may experience the loss of a loved one to lung cancer.
A man’s wife may threaten to leave him if he doesn’t quit using drugs.
During the second stage, contemplation, the person typically
experiences ambivalence toward the idea of change.
In the third stage, called preparation, although
continuing to experience ambivalence, the person begins making preparations
for change. Perhaps he starts reading self-help books or listening to
motivational tapes. He might start investigating the availability of a
support group or a counselor. The more a person prepares, the greater is
his likelihood of taking action.
The fourth stage is the action stage. At this
point the person makes a decision to try to change. The drinker in this
stage may decide to cut down and only drink on special occasions, or she
may quit completely. A smoker may begin to cut down on the number of
cigarettes she is smoking, or quit “cold-turkey.” Although initially
decisive on taking action, the ambivalence experienced by the individual
during the second stage may return.
After a while the person seems to turn a corner and
moves into the fifth stage, that of maintenance. The new pattern of
behavior becomes more firmly established in this stage, and easier to
maintain.
The sixth stage is that of termination. At this
point the hard work is over and the new behavior pattern becomes firmly
established. The person can consider herself “recovered” from the
addiction. This view conflicts with the doctrine, promoted by Alcoholics
Anonymous and others, that a person who has a history of alcohol
dependence must always consider herself a “recovering alcoholic,”
because she might, at some point, resume drinking. Research has
demonstrated, however, that some who have engaged in addictive behavior can
reach a point at which they no longer experience the urge to resume using.
Four advantages of this model are identified by
psychologist, Dr. Michler Bishop. First, the model enables people
recovering from addiction to view change as a process with identifiable
stages. Thus, it can help keep them motivated as they move through the
stages.
Second, this model can help the user avoid extreme
feelings of discouragement following a lapse or relapse. Movement forward,
as well as backward, is considered a normal feature of the change process.
By viewing recovery in this way, a person can stay motivated in the face of
setbacks he will inevitably experience.
Third, the model enables substance abuse counselors to
select those treatment strategies that are best suited to the particular
stage of change a client happens to be in at any given time. This can
result in more effective treatment.
Finally, according to Bishop, it is helpful for those
working with people with addictions to be accepting of the inevitable
relapses experienced by many individuals on the way to recovery. In this
way, professionals can avoid experiencing “burnout” when their clients
occasionally backslide while moving through the stages of change.
Dr. Catalanello is a licensed psychologist in his
home State of Louisiana, USA. He is a member of the Faculty of Liberal Arts
at Asian University in Jomtien. Address questions or comments to: [email protected]
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