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HEADLINES [click on headline to view story]:

Money matters

Snap Shots

Modern Medicine

Learn to Live to Learn

Heart to Heart with Hillary

Personal Directions

Psychological Perspectives

Money matters: Why assets will be bad for you

Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.

Over the last few years there has been a significant change in how investments are perceived. Until recently, it was income that people wanted not assets. An asset driven economy means that many of the usual macro-economical rules do not apply and could well damage any prolonged recovery – especially in America.

In the US the asset economy started to mushroom about ten years ago. Between 1994 and 2003, household sector assets expanded by 84% more than the growth of nominal gross domestic product. This means that the ratio of US household sector assets to GDP was more than 5.25 in 1999 which is far beyond the normal statistics. Even after the market readjustment in 2000, the household sector assets stood at 4.9 times US GDP last year which is almost 20% higher than it was up to when equities lost so much four years ago.

The consumer soon realised how quickly he or she could create artificial wealth and worry about it later. This was done by running up large debt using assets as a guarantee at the same time there were historic all time low interest rates. Basically, they were converting debt into spending.

With employment and real wages under pressure there has been an unusual reduction in the wages and salaries component of personal income. A couple of months ago, real wage income was only about 3% higher than in November 2001 when the world was in the depths of the worst recession in years. This is far below the almost 10% gains of the first 30 months of preceding cyclical recoveries. This translates into USD260 billion of ‘missing’ real income. Given the fact that there is such an income deficient recovery, it makes it even more important to take from the wealth effect as a prop to cover the cost of private purchases.

There have been very prominent areas in the asset driven economy – the surge in the price of equities in the late 1990’s and the property market over the last few years. The latter has the potential to cause far more problems than the former. This is because property creates a much more debt intensive situation than the equity wealth effect does.

This can be shown by the most recent figures from the US where it is shown that the household sector debt was 85% of GDP last year, up from 70% in 1995. Whilst it has to be said that this has to be due to low interest rates and quick growth in the price of houses, people often forget that everything is cyclical and what goes round comes round. Already interest rates have started to climb and it is only a matter of time before the banks will be calling in unpaid debts.

It is very plain to see that the average consumer has just not considered this. As stated above, interest rates have come down to record lows, however, debt service burden remain near the upper end of historic data. It is also a fact that it was perceived that most people would have funded their spending by going for a fixed rate repayment scheme. These will only last for so long and then the payments for the loan will suddenly become a lot higher.

Whilst all looks rosy at the moment, all of this has led to a situation of heavily indebted consumers and overly exposed financial institutions both being vulnerable to a return to a more realistic monetary policy.

More and more, asset based saving is thought of as a replacement for that of an income based one. This, in turn, drives the demand of the consumer. What it really means, however, is that combined with the huge US budget deficits there is now a massive shortfall in domestic saving. The net national saving rate fell to less than 2.00% of GDP last year. This is an all time low. Due to the lack of domestic savings the US has had to import them and run with extremely large current account and trade deficits to attract foreign capital – some of which is already being withdrawn by central Asian governments. The greatest danger to an asset economy is the ever widening twin deficits.

In the asset based economy, macro-economics has been thrown out of the window. Income based formulae used to scale deficits, debt and savings are shown to be unimportant. Now the way judging things is relative to asset determined wealth.

It was only a few years ago the equity bubble burst, this alone should remind us that there is no guarantee of permanence to asset values and the wealth effects that come with them – especially when assets are inflated by low interest rates that will not last.

It was the Spanish philosopher, Santayana, who wrote in The Life of Reason that, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it”. It was only fifteen years ago that people in the UK were paying mortgage rates in excess of 15% per annum. Interest rates only have one way to go and that is up.

The weakest point now is the juxtaposition of the imbalances of the income based US economy and the supposed solidity of the asset based one. The US government seems to have forgotten that its nation was built on the former and not the latter. In the stampede to go with assets, it has pushed the idea of imbalances between savings rates and current account deficits into the background. This could not have happened were it not for massive amounts of monetary and fiscal stimulus. These policies are now being normalised and it is where the asset based economy will be tested as it has never been before. Some think it will pass. Personally, I believe in Santayana.

The above data and research was compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For more information please contact Graham Macdonald on graham@mbmg-international .com


Snap Shots: The Famous Weegee

by Harry Flashman

Photography certainly breeds some amazing people, and Arthur H. Fellig was one. Born in Poland in 1899, he came to America in 1909. He was not interested in didactic learning and only stayed at school till he was 14 and then joined the school of hard knocks doing all sorts of menial jobs till he stumbled across photography.

He was reported as saying in one interview, “I saw an ad in a mail order catalogue which I sent away for: a tintype camera, and I decided to go into photography.” Even that statement was typical of this man. He didn’t wait to see if he was going to be any good - he was a “doer” and just waded right in and “did it”. You can warm to people with that much self-confidence, particularly as he was just a teenager at the time.

He worked for a few studios and then got a job in the darkroom at Acme Newspapers. Life in the newspaper business is always exciting and frantic, and especially in those lead linotype days. Arthur H. Fellig revelled in that excitement. He had found his niche. He was only 21 years old but he decided he was going to be a freelance news photographer.

He soon became known as the first on the scene of any newsworthy happening, be that fire, murder, suicide or landslide. He was so uncannily aware of what was happening that people began to feel he had some kind of psychic powers of prediction. At that time, America was also in the middle of a Ouija Board fad and from this Fellig was to adopt his nickname “Weegee”.

He even was so brash as to call himself “The World’s Greatest Photographer”! In those days of speakeasies, prohibition and gangsters, Weegee was totally at home, cigar clenched between his teeth, he looked like a kind of cross between the movie actors Edward G. Robinson and Charles Bronson. He became famous for his cocky approach to life. And that was life at all levels, a life he recorded with his trusty 4x5 Speed Graphic.

Of course, Weegee was not psychic, but just used to sleep fully clothed, with a police radio on his pillow. In the boot of his car was his “office”, complete with typewriter to knock out the words, spare film and lots of flash bulbs. Weegee would arrive, record the shot, type the words and have everything on the editor’s desk within the hour. It was no wonder that Weegee was so popular with the news media of the day. (He would be even more popular today!)

By 1935, Life magazine was doing features on Weegee and his work. There was no doubt about the fact that he had the photographic “eye”, but for Weegee, the subject was the all important part of the photograph. And the subject he dealt with was done incredibly directly. Weegee was not one to be horrified by the sights before him, such as gangland killings. He took the shot that kept that horror for the eyes of the newspaper readers the next day. (Interestingly, that direct, confrontational photographic style is still used in the Thai language papers today - check any front pages for graphic images.) Another quote from this amazing man, “I like to get different shots and don’t like to make the same shots the other dopes do.” When asked what his formula was he replied, “I just laugh. I have no formula, I’m just myself, take me or leave me. I don’t put on an act. I don’t try to make a good or bad impression. I’m just Weegee.”

Weegee will be remembered for his record of the seamier side of New York life. This was put into book form, called the Naked City and was published in 1945. Unfortunately, the wide public recognition that came from this book ended the directly grotesque nature of his images and Weegee went to Hollywood where tinsel-town swallowed him up. He died in 1969.


Modern Medicine: Benign Paroxysmal Positional Vertigo (BPPV)

A fearsome condition - or am I spinning you a yarn?

by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant

Benign Paroxysmal Positional Vertigo (BPPV) is a very common, but very distressing condition. In it, you feel that the room spins around you and you cannot stop it. Have you ever been so drunk that when you lie down on the bed the spinning rotation is so bad you grip the edges of the bed to stop falling off? That is what BPPV is like - but without the hangover!

The symptoms of BPPV include dizziness (vertigo), lightheadedness, imbalance, and nausea. Activities that bring on symptoms will vary, but are almost always produced by a rapid change of position of the head. Getting out of bed or turning over in bed are common “problem” motions. Because people with BPPV often feel dizzy and unsteady when they tip their heads back to look up, BPPV is sometimes called “top shelf vertigo.” Women with BPPV may find that being shampooed can bring on the symptoms too. It also tends to be recurrent. So until you read further, don’t look up or get your hair washed!

To understand BPPV, you have to understand the workings of your inner ear. You have three semi-circular canals aligned in different directions, which act like spirit levels (the builders type, not the three fingers on the glass barman type) which have cells with fine hairs bathed with fluid as your head moves in different directions. The movement of the fine hairs sends electrical impulses to the brain to tell it (and you) which way is “up”.

However, with BPPV, the natural movement inside the semi-circular canals is disrupted, so the fine hairs send the wrong signals to the brain, and being unable to work out which way is really “up” the sufferer falls over, totally unable to save themselves from hitting the floor. Debilitating and embarrassing!

The commonest cause of interruption to the normal ebb and flow in the semi-circular canals is produced by “ear rocks”. These are made up of crystals of calcium carbonate, and we medicos call these “otoconia”. Imagine these to be like sugar crystals in the bottom of your coffee cup. These now swish around every time you move your cup, and likewise your “ear rocks” swish around every time you move your head.

However, it is not all that simple (it never is, is it?) as the commonest cause of BPPV in people under 50 is head injury. In older people, the most common cause is degeneration in the semi-circular canals of the inner ear. BPPV becomes much more common with advancing age, but in 50 percent of all cases, BPPV is called ‘idiopathic’, which is a fancy word we use when we have no real idea as to the cause!

Viruses can be accused too, such as those causing vestibular neuritis, minor strokes such as those involving anterior inferior cerebellar artery (AICA) syndrome, and Meniere’s disease are significant but unusual causes. Occasionally BPPV follows surgery, where the cause is felt to be from a prolonged period of lying on the back with the chin raised (for the anaesthetic tubes to slip down your throat), or ear trauma when the surgery is to the inner ear.

Is there any treatment? Yes there is, usually a series of manoeuvres you are put through which are designed to move the ‘ear rocks’ around till they no longer cause problems. These are demonstrated by the Ear, Nose and Throat (ENT) specialists and usually result in around a 90 percent cure rate.


Learn to Live to Learn: Location and Fees

by George Benedikt

Clearly these issues are critical to informed choice, and if you’re like me, I always look at the fees pretty soon after entering a school and I am always irritated by the ‘enrolment fee’ which seems likes an unfair additional tax, no matter how it’s portrayed.

Location too, must be important, because who likes a long journey? Not me (although my kids don’t seem to mind!). Perhaps that last point is once again going to be the most critical. What really is best for your children? If you really think about it, unless you choose a school in Bangkok (and there are more than a few excellent schools in Bangkok), then you are unlikely to have to travel more than thirty minutes in any direction, whatever school you choose.

The more I think about it, the more I like the idea of a 30 minute drive through lush vegetation, listening either to my music, or their story CDs. In short, when it comes down to their happiness, I can bear 30 minutes each way very well indeed. If you compare it to a European city such as Berlin, where I used to live, then it’s almost nothing. Except (and there always seems to be an ‘except’) if you have children whose schooling finishes at different times of day. Then perhaps distance becomes a more significant issue.

Usually, schools operate bus shuttle systems which are a great (if potentially costly) way of overcoming this possible problem.

As a customer, I am always on the lookout for ‘promotions’ and ‘special deals’. However, I am also extremely wary of gimmicks, even if they promise to ignore the dreaded ‘enrolment fee’. Why? Because there’s a reason behind a gimmick. If a school is drastically short of numbers, one way to solve the problem is to get rid of the enrolment fee.

Another way is to offer ‘scholarships’. Scholarships always sound generous, but it is absolutely critical if you are considering accepting one, to go into the fine detail of what the scholarship actually covers. Check the numbers. Read the minutiae of the contract. If the scholarship you are offered covers absolutely everything, I’ll eat this newspaper.

Once again, when you ask, these details should be forthcoming in an instant. If they’re not, something’s up.

As usual, it’s a balance that most people are looking for. What I have found quite reassuring about Thailand is that lower fees by no means encourage Thai parents to send their children to a particular school offering them. Indeed, apparently quite the opposite. I think we parents are more discerning than we are given credit for.

What I would certainly suggest is that you get what you pay for. The higher up the school your child goes, you might very well think the more important this becomes. In later issues I will examine specific international academic programmes and you will be able to cross-check results from across international schools in Thailand. It would be interesting to make fees vs results comparisons (actually I’ve already done it myself!).

Staff turnover

What are the teacher qualifications and where are they from? Have all the teacher qualifications been verified? A common cause for complaint among parents is that their child is being taught either by an under qualified individual (no teaching degree or appropriate course training), an unqualified individual (someone teaching a subject other than that in which they are qualified), or a complete impostor (no relevant qualifications at all).

Be aware that some schools have a reputation for selling you short and usually, there’s no smoke without fire. Is there a policy for performance management and are bonuses performance-related? If so, how are they measured and here’s a good question – has anybody ever been refused a bonus?

A very good indication of a good quality educational establishment is the turnover of staff – what percentage are retained at the end of contract? Most contracts are for two years, although some schools at the poorer end of the spectrum try and get around the whole business of contracts altogether. Watch out for these.

Have there been any upheavals in the recent past? Don’t be hoodwinked by schools who include in their figures for retainment, those teachers who have been employed by chance (usually in emergency) as a result of being spouses of expats in other lines of business. Ask to talk to some staff – observe part of a lesson in your child’s age group. See what’s going on. Most staff will talk very openly about their experiences. So ask direct questions, such as “Do you like it here? Are you going to stay longer?”

Next week: History and Boarding

Send questions, comments and/or suggestions to editor @pattayamail.com


Heart to Heart with Hillary

Dear Hillary,
One of our friends (an expat) is going out with a Thai girl that he has only known for a short while, about a couple of months. He has gone back to the UK for a month, and in that time we have tried to befriend his girl, but she does not seem very interested in our company, making excuses every time we invite her over. I bumped into her in town the other day, and noticed that her breath smelled of alcohol at 11 o’clock in the morning. She used to drink before, but I think she is drinking much more now to be able to smell it the next day. What do you think we should do? Should we tell him, or just stay mum?
Concerned Friend
Dear Concerned Friend,
Unsolicited advice is never appreciated, my Petal. No matter how well intentioned that advice really is. You may be correct that this girl is hitting the bottle while your friend is away, but can you be sure? It might have been a one time only birthday celebration, or it might not have been alcohol at all that you were smelling. Unless you have very firm evidence to back up your claim, I would back off. If your friend asks you directly, then respond with your fears, but otherwise keep out of it. Your friend is big enough to find his own way through life.
Dear Hillary,
How do you tell someone that they are making a rod for their own backs with the way the people next door treat their eight year old? This child came after many years of trying and is now utterly spoilt. As far as I can see, whatever the child wants, the child gets, and that can be new clothes, make-up or even a mobile phone. Can you believe that? They just gave an eight year old a mobile phone, and of course it has to be the one that takes photographs, not just a simple portable telephone. We can see just what is going to happen in the future, but they don’t seem to be able to. She has mixed parents.
Spare the Rod
Dear Spare the Rod,
I am not so sure who is most “mixed” here, Petal. Most parents these days are “mixed” in the fact that you get one male and one female in most child-rearing pairs! Most parents also get fairly “mixed” up with the vexed questions of raising children. Ask around, nobody has the perfect answer to bringing up perfect children. I also note that you can “see what is going to happen in the future”. Lucky you! Clairvoyance is a rare gift. You should try and capitalize on it. You might even try sending me the winning ticket number for the local lottery. I am prepared to split my winnings with you, if your future vision is that good. In the meantime, I suggest you stop snooping on what the neighbours are doing and tend to your own lives. Take up evening classes or something worthwhile. Something like Advanced Humility would suit you I am sure.
Dear Hillary,
I am a 14 year old boy at one of the internationall (sic) schools and I am not sure if I have a problem. Every moning (sic) I have been waking up with a kinda stiffness down below and since I cut my foot a week ago and did not go to hospittal (sic) I am afraid this could be tetnus (sic). How can I tell? I begun to ask one of the boys in my class but he laughed at me so I didn’t tell him about the whole story about the tetnus (sic) problem. What should I do? Is it dangerus (sic)?
Worried William
Dear Worried Willy,
You certainly do have a problem, but that stiffness you are describing does not sound like tetanus to me, my Petal. I think you should have a chat to your father about this, or an elder brother if you have one. Just be aware that this is a normal part of growing up, like your voice going deeper and is just caused by natural hormonal changes. You’ll be looking for it later I can assure you! Meanwhile take a cold shower in the mornings and you will be able to fit into your school shorts. I would also suggest you stay back for extra English classes. Your spelling is abysmal (look it up, darling)! That’s your biggest problem.
Dear Hillary,
I am very worried about my boyfriend, we have had a good time for the past few years, but lately he has been staying out later and later on his nights out with the boys. Several times over the last month he had not come home till six in the mornings and he falls into bed and snores. He gives me no answer to where he’s been. What can I do about it?
Lek
Dear Lek,
If you can’t beat him join him. Tell him you get frightened when you are left alone all night and insist on joining him on his nights out with the boys. If you get tired of that then just lock him out of the house after one a.m.!


Personal Directions: From boom to bust and back again…

by Christina Dodd

We are living in dynamic times and in a horrendously fast-paced environment. From boom to bust and back again, today’s fast-paced economy demands that businesses change or die. There appears to be almost continuous reorganizing, then there is the need to be more innovative in order to compete, and somewhere in between we are trying to relate to people and establish relationships.

Few companies are managing these changes as well as they would like and managers are experiencing a whole new type of exhaustion. They have ever widening spans of control, re-organization threatens positions, performance targets have become even tougher and production goes on around the globe and around the clock.

The times that were once reserved for family have now been squeezed by the duty to answer e-mails, voice mails and faxes. What didn’t get done at the office, thanks to technology, is now being done at home. The more you do, the more that is expected of you. If you do special projects well, guess what, you are relied upon for more special projects.

So what can we do to prevent burnout?

From the organizational side of things, managers need to recognize that burnout can and does happen and it is not a character flaw. This ought to be acknowledged up-front and plans for handling it put in place. Open discussion about the ramifications of burnout need to be dealt with at the senior management level. Burnout appears to happen most often to those who are conscientious and committed to the organization. It is something that strikes our most talented people.

Managers need to keep track of positions that have been compressed - where one person is now doing the job of 2 or perhaps 3 and to watch for signs of irritability, frustration, or increased introversion. If a particular person is noted for their competence in the completion of innovative projects, don’t automatically assume they can be assigned others, without respite. Changes in pace and responsibility could also help to allow people time to replenish and revitalize themselves. Make sure the organization has ways of letting people know that their contributions are important. Many performance appraisal programs actually contribute to a sense of being unrecognized.

Management needs to consider: Recreational facilities that serve as a place to de-stress. Off-site retreats are other ways that serve as rewards for a job well done. Workshops and regular retraining are important ways that help to improve skills in our changing environment. Recognize when time-off would be beneficial for yourself and others. Don’t automatically assume that the person who has always been strong can sustain the pace. Listen for key indicators of exhaustion, something like: “I don’t think it is healthy to keep up this pace”. Insist vacations be taken.

One of the most effective measures against burnout is offering the services of a professional coach. Weekly sessions allow the individual to express things that might otherwise be repressed or denied because of organizational design or politics. In coaching, the person explores what really matters most, how to work through their strengths and around their weaknesses, to integrate personal values and begin living a purposeful life.

Individual sufferers need to know that their problem stems from increased expectations, and trying to handle too much. It has little to do personal abilities. Ways to alleviate these pressures are:

Set your boundaries: This may include limiting travel, avoiding unnecessary meetings, establishing a reasonable work schedule or declining extra duties — even though you know you are the best person for the job. Believe me, after time your ego will not be bruised because you have said no, and you will learn to give others credit for taking on the extra tasks.

Keep your private time sacred: The old saying is true, at the end of our days, nobody says, “I wish I had worked harder.” Establishing healthy relationships with those who are most important to us, should not be put off until a better time. The time is now.

Healthy habits: You’ve heard it all before. Good eating habits and regular exercise. Bad habits are little things we keep repeating that are doing us no good! We know what they are but haven’t made them a priority to change.

Daily reflection/meditation: Take a quiet time every day to begin to grapple with what you believe in and why. Give thanks daily for what you have. Actively choose the roads you go down and be careful of the detours other people would have you take.

Feeling pressured: When you feel you are ‘rowing up stream’ it is time to take stock. We can choose not to struggle.

Think of the rhyme you learned as a child:

“Row, row, row your boat”

– Rowing requires you be consistently balanced

“Gently down the stream”

– Nothing in life works well when forced

“Merrily, merrily, merrily”

– Be content, WE choose our mood

“Life is but a dream”

– Life becomes what you make it.

Personal Growth: Understand why you are special and celebrate your unique talents and gifts throughout your life. And remember, happiness comes not from freedom of obstacles and challenges but in living a life that matters.

An old Indian saying goes something like this: “When you were born, you cried and the world rejoiced. When you die, the world should cry, and you rejoice in a life well lived…”

Barb McEwen, a well known thought-provoking, inspirational speaker and coach inspired this article and its follow-on for next week.

Until next time, have a fabulous week and use your time wisely!

For more details about our life coaching services, personal and professional skills development programs, please email me directly at christina [email protected] or visit our website www. asiatrainingassociates.com


Psychological Perspectives: Resilience in response to trauma and adversity

by Michael Catalanello, Ph.D.

Global acts of terrorism are, unfortunately, in the news again this week. The latest set of events includes the aftermath of the school siege involving the taking of 1200 hostages in Beslan, Russia, which ended in the detonation of explosives leaving 338 dead and scores injured. A car bomb exploded in Jakarta last week near the Australian embassy leaving at least eight dead. There are almost daily insurgent attacks against both military and civilian targets in embattled Iraq. Finally, militia forces terrorizing the Darfur region of Sudan have reportedly killed 50,000 black Africans in what U.N. authorities are now calling genocide.

People who survive such attacks must live, not only with physical wounds often received in attacks, but also psychological trauma that results from experiencing death and destruction up close, loss of loved ones, jobs, and material possessions.

Most anyone witnessing an extreme event involving sudden or violent injury or loss of life and destruction of property, experiences strong emotions as a result. After a period of adjustment, however, most people are able to resume their previous level of functioning, some even reporting personal growth or enrichment as a result of coming to terms with the experience. A few, however, may experience longer term emotional distress which interferes with their day to day lives.

There is a growing body of psychological research dealing with the question of what personal characteristics are helpful for successfully adjusting to stress and trauma. A concept of “resilience” has emerged from this work, suggesting that certain adaptive skills can be developed by those who have faced difficult and challenging life experiences, or by those whose occupations put them at risk for experiencing extreme trauma.

One line of research has identified an array of personal characteristics that are associated with favorable adjustment to adversity. A person who is lacking in one of the components of this array is likely to experience deficits in the entire array of coping resources. On the other hand, those who develop resources seem to show gains in the entire range of resources.

One helpful personal resource, identified by the psychologist Martin Seligman and others, is that of optimism. Optimistic people expect favorable outcomes to occur in the future. When faced with challenges such people tend to use active problem-focused coping, that is, strategies that are aimed at solving, rather than avoiding the problems facing them.

Resilient people also have a strong conviction in their ability to manage difficulties and accomplish tasks. This conviction, often called “self-efficacy,” enables them to sustain their efforts over time, thus improving their likelihood of success. Psychologist Donald Meichenbaum emphasizes the tendency of such people to break down complex tasks to smaller, more manageable ones. This enables them to taste success along the way to more distant goals.

Another psychologist, Aaron Antonovsky, identifies a sense of coherence as being a component of resilience. By this he means the expectation that meaning can be derived from adversity, and that it is worthwhile to invest one’s time and resources into developing a deeper understanding of these events.

Life generally involves adaptation to change. We usually prefer gradual and mild change to sudden and dramatic change. Since exposure to traumatic events represents a sudden kind of change, our attitudes toward change can also influence our adjustment to those events. Rather than viewing change as threatening, those who maintain an attitude of acceptance of change, who view adversity as merely unfortunate, perhaps inconvenient, but not overwhelming, are most likely to recover and even thrive following exposure to stressful events.

Dr. Catalanello is a licensed psychologist in his home State of Louisiana, USA. He is a member of the Faculty of Liberal Arts at Asian University in Jomtien. Address questions or comments to: [email protected]