Money matters: Oil gushes higher (continued)
High oil prices and heightened political risk likely to remain a feature – The views of one of our analysts
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
8 bullet points about the
price of oil
The West is now less dependent on oil as a fuel and energy
source than in the past. Progress has been made in making engines more energy
efficient and much has been achieved in general since the last major oil crisis
in the early Seventies. Alternative energy sources are being used for power
generation and there is now even a re-consideration of the role of nuclear
generation.
The key point that often is overlooked in the oil price story
is that much of the price hike is caused by a jump in real demand, much of it
from newly emerging economies such as China and the Far East. This is in many
ways very positive news for the global economy, as it spells the end of the
dependency for the world growth on the engine of the US consumer and means that
growth can be supported without the need for US consumers to take on even more
debt.
Brent Crude Oil
Price per Barrel ($) - 12 months to 9 August 2004
Source: BBC
Some of this new demand for oil and oil products does mean
that the base price for crude oil may well have risen, since some of the demand
will not be cyclical. The explosive growth in car ownership in Asia is a case in
point. The need for higher levels of power supply will carry on, with a new
higher minimum demand for energy.
What the world has not done is invest in the infrastructure
to produce and refine more oil, having been lulled into a false sense of
security with the low oil prices in the 1990’s. The current squeeze on oil
supply can only get tighter in the longer term if these emerging economies move
rapidly towards similar levels of oil consumption as we have in the West now. So
we could now be facing real problems of balancing supply and demand.
The inability to supply a sufficient quantity of crude is
constrained by capacity. This has become limited by lack of investment for most
of the last decade. Saddam Hussein spent little on maintenance or exploration
because of the UN sanctions but little has been done in either respect in many
of OPEC’s oil provinces. Now that prices are higher it is once again cost
effective to extract more difficult oil reserves and expensive maintenance can
be afforded.
After some strong political pressure on OPEC members, when
the price of crude was hovering around $40 per barrel, they did agree to
increase production by up to 2.5 million barrels a day. The oil market fell back
on this but the price is still trading away from OPEC’s previous basket range
of prices from US$22 to US$28 per barrel.
There is some concern in investor’s minds as the Saudi oil
minister has recently stated that the US$33+ price area is now ‘fair’,
perhaps implying that we will not be returning to the lower bands anytime soon,
if OPEC can control the flows of oil.
One of the overlooked aspects that is perhaps worrying for the longer term
outlook is just how tight capacity has now become in lifting crude oil, as well
as processing and transporting it. Even Saudi Arabia, with its vast reserves, is
close to its limit for lifting now, without some new investment in
infrastructure. Furthermore, there is a need for some new exploration to ensure
replacement rates are continued. The only real underdeveloped oil province,
apart from Iraq, is Russia/Siberia. (Next week: A summary)
The above data and research was compiled from sources believed to be
reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its officers can
accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above article nor
bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any actions
taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For more
information please contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]
Snap Shots: New or second-hand?
by Harry Flashman
When looking for a new camera, should you take the risk
and get a second hand one? I always say to go for second hand. My Scottish
heritage comes to the fore when buying anything, so if you can save 50
percent of the price of a new one, and get the same performance, it’s a
no-brainer as far as I am concerned. However, there are a few items to
consider before plunging into your wallet and forking out for a camera.
In
my professional photographer days, I have bought many expensive cameras,
including Hasselblads, Nikons, Canons and Cambos. The ‘Blads alone were
worth several hundreds of thousands of baht (one lens alone was worth over
30,000 baht), but all of them were second hand! A few years back I also
had to buy some cameras here (after a robbery - are yours insured?) and
they too were second hand. I follow my own advice!
Like buying anything, the first problem is not
ascertaining the condition, it is just making sure that you do not need
asbestos gloves to handle the merchandise. In other words, make sure it
isn’t “hot”. (In particular, one of my stolen cameras!)
If you are buying from a recognised camera shop then
you are probably OK, but from Shady Sam’s it is ‘caveat emptor’ -
let the buyer beware. If you are buying from a private owner, then look
for some proof of ownership - a receipt from their initial purchase, or at
worst, some insurance documentation. Most robbers don’t bother insuring
the loot!
Now let’s go through what you have to do to make sure
you have bought a good one - and we’ll deal with the camera body first.
Just like looking at a second hand car, how many bumps and scrapes are
there on the case? Turn it over and look at the top, front, back, sides
and bottom. Look particularly for small dents in the case. With good
cameras you have to use a lot of force to actually dent the casing, so it
probably means the camera has been dropped. You do not want a dropped
camera - they are more trouble than they are worth, no matter how cheaply
it is being offered.
Note “wear” marks on the edges. Nice smooth wear
areas generally means the camera spent most of its life in a camera case.
In other words, it has had half a chance of being looked after properly.
Also look at the swivels for the camera strap. Excessive wear here also
shows a camera that has been well used.
Now open up the camera back and look inside. Wear marks
on the pressure plate on the cover means that it has had lots of film put
through it. This is not such a bad thing, but remember that everything
will wear out eventually. Look particularly at the shutter. Titanium
shutters as used in Nikons are very fragile (and expensive) and should be
completely flat. Look for corrosion around the light seal edges of the
camera back and the grooves it fits into on the body. This may be a sign
of water damage. Look into the body at the front and make sure the mirror
is clean and works properly when the shutter is depressed.
Next look at the lens, dismounted from the camera.
Check the bayonet or screw fitting and hold the lens up to the light. Look
for “spider web” traces on the glass elements which may mean fungus.
This does not mean the lens is ruined - it just means it will need service
soon. Now look through the lens while closing the aperture down and make
sure it closes OK.
You have only one more check to do. Run a roll of film through and
check all the shutter speeds, apertures and functions. With a private
seller or photo-shop, run a check film through before money actually
changes hands. It is a perfectly reasonable and legitimate request. With a
camera shop, you should also get a guarantee. Buy carefully and laugh all
the way to the bank.
Modern Medicine: Grief, loss and psychological trauma
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
We have all experienced some psychological
trauma, loss or grief. Just as death is the end result of living, we will
meet many traumatic experiences in our lives. Every day we hear about
atrocities, suicide bombings, genocide, innocent children caught up in
sectarian violence - it all seems endless. And we watch graphic TV footage
of people left to grieve.
However, this is not a new phenomenon. Mankind has been
inflicting psychological trauma on itself for countless thousands of years.
A brief perusal of world history will soon reveal the war-like nature of
mankind and the countless millions who have perished in these conflicts. And
all those who died left mothers, fathers, brothers, sisters, family and
friends to grieve over their losses. The only difference between today’s
horrors and the Spanish Inquisition, the Crusades or World Wars I and II is
the fact that the grief was not shown all over the world via the electronic
media.
Grief is the outcome of loss, but that loss does not need
to be just from unexpected trauma. Grief from loss can also be experienced
by children of divorcing parents, adults whose elderly parents have died or
parents whose children have died after long illnesses. Even losing a job or
a girlfriend/boyfriend can produce the emotion we call grief.
The ways we handle grief are almost as many as the causes
of grief, but drug and alcohol abuse and suicide threats rank highly as
manifestations of poor adaptation to a new situation that is causing the
loss and grief.
Since grief is an emotion we all have had, in one way or
another, it is one of life’s ‘normal’ emotional states. The usual
expressions of ‘normal’ grief includes tears, poor sleep and a decreased
appetite. The stages of grieving include a numbness that lasts between a few
hours to several days, followed by ‘pining’ where the person swings
between separation distress and anxiety.
These are then followed by a period of disorganization
and despair, where the memory of the event or person is in the forefront of
consciousness. This results in the continuing personal questioning of
“What if...?” and “Why?” The grieving person feels that the person
being grieved over is still around and they will ‘see’ the person while
out in public. Finally there is a phase of reorganization and integration of
the loss into the ‘normal’ thoughts of the individual.
While these phases can take varying times, there will be
set-backs, such as birthdays and anniversaries like Xmas and New Year, to
push the person back into the grieving process. However, this is all very
normal.
Grief, like many of our emotions, only becomes
‘abnormal’ when it results in a long period of lack of coping with the
situation that has produced the grief. It is normal for a mother to grieve
for a lost child, but abnormal for that person to be unable to consider
having further off-spring, because of that one disaster. It is normal for a
teenager to feel that they will never love again after a broken romance. It
is only abnormal when they do not allow themselves to become involved again.
To allow the grief cycle to go forwards, sometimes it is
necessary for counselling, but for most people just having supportive,
non-judgmental family and friends is one of the most important factors.
Learning to let go of the past is important too.
Constantly going over the past robs you of the present and stops your
progress into the future.
Learn to Live to Learn: What I love about the IB diploma
by George BenediktWhat
I love about the IB diploma (and that doesn’t mean I don’t love things about
‘A’ levels and ‘APs’) is the kind of student you get graduating from the
course, the kind of teacher you (hopefully) get teaching the course and the kind
of school which delivers the course.
There is no doubt at all that academically it’s tough, with
students having to take 6 subjects, three at higher level and three at standard
level. Higher levels are equivalent to ‘A’ levels or ‘AP’ and there are
the three central components of TOK, CAS and EE.
In order for students to successfully complete the programme,
they have to obtain a minimum of 24 points and can obtain a maximum of 45. Each
of their six subjects is marked through a combination of internal and external
assessment to a maximum of 7 points per subject.
Then there’s a matrix of marks for TOK (Theory of
Knowledge) and Extended Essay that can provide a maximum of 3 more marks.
CAS is pass/fail. There are a few other failing combinations
– basically a student cannot afford to get under a ‘4’ in any subject.
It’s tough, and students really have to ‘Learn to Live to Learn’.
I should point out that if the diploma programme is too tough
for some students, IB offers flexibility. Students can opt to take
‘certificates’ in a convenient number of subjects at either standard or
higher level depending on ability and inclination and thereby forego the
pressure of having to combine them all into a diploma.
A number of ‘certificates’ are by no means unacceptable
for entry to universities around the world. With the competent delivery of the
subject and the way the curriculum is designed, the programme should, and does,
foster a love of learning.
For the school’s part, their commitment is to bring a
student through this rite of passage. For a number of reasons this can sometimes
be difficult. Here are a couple. Firstly, schools will often push students who
are grossly unsuited to the programme to do it, because they need to advertise
to the public and to their board that they have a certain number of students
undertaking the programme, which will provide justification for the continuation
of it. This creates unfair pressure on the student, teachers and parents.
Secondly, the nature of the programme teaches students to
question all they once held to be true and that means questioning authority. I
recently heard tales of a school in another part of the world, which lost two of
its final year students (about 40% of the year group!) due to what appeared to
be gross misunderstanding of the consequences of teaching the programme by the
very people who were employed to deliver it!
Which brings us back to the difficulty of having people
running the programme who actually know what they are doing. If they don’t, a
simple defence mechanism kicks in when they feel ‘challenged’ by a student.
A kind of time warp ensues, where you have ‘the old’ defying the apparent
level of their own education and reverting to defensive, confrontational stances
consistent with their own preconceptions of how a school should be run, which is
usually based on 19th and early 20th
century national systems.
So, instead of acknowledging and celebrating the initiative
and intelligence of a student whom through the IB curriculum they are
encouraging to demonstrate those very traits, they berate and humiliate. The
result is an unhappy divorce between student and school which is a grotesque
travesty of all that the IBO stands for.
If you know of a school where this has happened, please let
me know! I saw something similar in Germany and the staff made a stand against
ignorance and incompetence, resulting in the reinstatement of the student. It
was a victory for reconciliation and the ideals which should be flourishing in
IB world schools. Nobody was made to feel guilty or wronged. Everybody forgave
each other and was made to feel comfortable.
Perhaps it was coincidence that Archbishop Desmond Tutu’s
truth and reconciliation was filling the news at the time and he was leading, as
all great leaders should, by example.
I remember reading a series of great articles recently by a
former IB Head of School, who summed up what should happen in an IB school:
‘The celebration of diversity and the pursuit of excellence’. Hear! Hear!
Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
I lent a lady over 2 million baht and we are now married (3 years). Do I
want it back? Of course not, otherwise we would have to sell the house,
pickup, 6 dogs, 5 cows, 1 pig, and chickens of course, and 9 rai of land. As
you may realize, I’m not talking about Pattaya - so inform your readers
that there are many lovely places and ladies in the northeast where I live.
Ken (ex-Pattaya resident)
Dear ex-Pattaya resident Ken,
Thank you for the wonderful vote of confidence in the north-eastern ladies,
Petal. It is always pleasant to hear of an ex-pat who is not complaining.
There is only one thing that worries me slightly with your idyllic situation
that you outlined in your letter - you mention “house, pickup, 6 dogs, 5
cows, 1 pig, and chickens and 9 rai of land”, but where is the buffalo?
For two million you should have been able to get a buffalo plus 12 months
veterinary maintenance thrown in free after that sort of big spend! Enjoy
Isaan, Ken. You sound like a very nice chap, and when you want to lend
another two million to a lady, Hillary is always waiting! I do have another
slight worry, Ken. It has been reported to me that 99 percent of the ladies
in Pattaya came from Isaan. How do the Pattaya lads find one like yours that
is still left up there?
Dear Hillary,
Like “Young & Handsome” (October 16), I too see
some “ugly” expats here, but I am not referring to their looks. I became
a regular visitor to Pattaya since 2001 after I met someone special here.
Coming here monthly for a week or two, I do drive around. Besides the
terrible driving manners of the locals, there are a number of ‘farangs’
who are equally guilty. Many a time I come across these expats who walk in
the middle of a road or lane with no regards to the on-coming cars or the
cars behind them, and taking their time; or crossing a road with their Thai
lover in tow while engaging in a fight or conversation, not bothering about
the traffic; riding their bikes at snail speed and making turns or
overtaking without giving proper signals. Do they behave like this back in
their own cities where there are laws or they simply behave like this
because they think they are the superior group of people in this Asian city?
Please don’t advise me to ‘run’ them down as I would like to, if
it’s legal.
John
Dear John,
I honestly think these people did behave like this in
their own cities. Do you notice that many of them possess a limp (one that
Vitamin V does not fix) or a short leg, or similar results of pedestrian
accidents in their own countries, where people travel too fast to miss them.
After they recover, they get a lump sum (should that be ‘limp’ sum, I
wonder) payout and they come here to eke out their remaining days. I don’t
believe the day-dreaming is solely the province of the farangs either, as
many, many Thais are just as hopeless on the road (on foot, on a bike or in
a car). Don’t run them down, it gets very messy, and the nice policeman
won’t like you anymore and your visa to come here could be cancelled, and
you wouldn’t want that, would you Petal?
Dear Hillary,
Sandy and Jules of ‘Bona Trips’ have suggested that I
troll along and make a full-frontal approach with your chocs and bubbly.
Only one problem, where’s Soi Hillary?
Mistersingha
Dear Mistersingha,
There is a Hillary Bar in Bangkok (no relationship to me
I assure you), but I do not know of a Soi Hillary either, though perhaps I
should check the signpost at the end of my street. However, I am perfectly
aware that even if I laid on limousine transport to my front door, your
full-frontal approach would be full of the usual wee and wind that you have
been guilty of for more than two years now. Why don’t you share the
choccies and champers with Sandy and Jules, my reneging little Petal? You
and I both know that you do not deliver on your promises.
Dear Hillary,
I parked my car in the main street and when I came back I
found a motorcycle had fallen over and was leaning on my car, scratching the
back of it. I waited to see if the owner would come up, but after half an
hour I left. I took the number plate of the motorcycle. Do you think I could
get any compensation for this, or should I just pay it myself and forget it?
The painting shop said they thought it would cost maybe 2000 baht. What do
you think?
Scratchy
Dear Scratchy,
Oh dear, my Petal, you must be new round here. You do not
have a snowball’s hope in hell of doing anything right now. My simple
answer is to pay your paint shop and chalk it down to experience. You will
be rewarded in the next life. If you are very lucky. In the meantime it’s
2,000 baht. And give the motorcycle rider his number plate back!
PC Blues - News and Views:
ISP service again
Once again I have complaints about the quality of ISP
service.
Since I last wrote on this, I have used a different
ISP, with different, but equally dissatisfying problems.
The first ISP would randomly disconnect me, forcing
me to re-dial to get a connection (and benefit the phone company with
the price of a redial). My current ISP just stops serving me. Demands
for web pages just hang: refresh requests are ignored: downloads dry up.
This forces me to disconnect, and reconnect again - once more paying the
phone company for a redial.
A novel arrangement sometimes occurs when I have
newly connected. Any request for any page results in a DNS failure. You
will remember that the DNS is the Domain Name Service, and is essential
to find a web page. So why is this essential part of a dial-up service
being denied me? A dial-up service without DNS is no service at all.
Again I have to disconnect, reconnect, and try again.
This really will not do. If I am getting no service,
I should get my money back, but how do I do this? Under the
circumstances, this is not possible. There should be some sort of public
watchdog, which might fine the bad performers. Failing this, a league
table of best and worst performing ISPs might be published. Several of
the PC magazines in Britain did this from time-to-time. Key factors they
published were time to connect, average number of retries, number of
unexpected disconnects, download speeds for a range of file sizes, and
so on.
In a similar vein, I have had a letter to the Pattaya
Mail passed to me complaining of the new do-it-yourself broadband modem
arrangements. In the old days (and this happened in England too) a
broadband connection was set up, at some expense, by a visiting engineer
- something like having a telephone line connected. These days, you can
get a cheaper broadband connection if you install the modem yourself.
(It isn’t a modem, really. Broadband works differently. But everyone
‘knows’ what a modem is, so the salesmen call the broadband
connecter a modem so they think they know what they are getting.)
Installation should be nothing more than plugging the connecter into a
free USB port, and, perhaps, entering some configuration details on the
computer.
My recently purchased all-in-one printer/scanner was
as complicated as this. First it told me to turn the thing on, and
install the ink cartridges: later it asked me what numbers were on those
cartridges, which by now were hidden!
Anyway, my correspondent’s installation was a
failure. The root cause of this was that the ISP had failed to make an
essential connection at their end, but they wasted hours on the phone
with pointless requests to ‘try this’ and ‘try that’. When this
was sorted out, it still didn’t work, and an engineer’s visit was
required. The engineer managed to get the connection working, but only
by stopping the lan (the customer’s private internal network).
There are two lessons here. First, the telephone
support needs to be trained to handle queries about new products before
they are sold to the public. Second, the support engineers need to be
similarly trained.
The bit about stopping the lan may be company policy,
however. When I was in England, I set up a firewall computer for a
client of mine. This is a computer which stands between your PC and the
internet, and blocks unwanted or malicious traffic. He got broadband,
and I reconfigured the firewall to handle a broadband connection. After
some time, the broadband connection failed - I think a digger at some
roadwork cut through a cable - and the broadband company sent someone
round to re-establish the connection afterwards. After they had been, I
found that the firewall could talk to the internet, but not to my
client’s PC. They had trashed the local network connection. I got it
all going again, but made enquiries and found that the broadband company
had a policy not to support networks on ‘private’ broadband
connections - they wanted to charge a commercial rate for that - and
they regarded the introduction of a firewall computer as establishing a
network. The engineer effectively turned a blind eye to this setup,
because he could see there was no effective fraud being committed by
this arrangement.
So, buy a DIY broadband set-up only if you have
competent private advice on tap. Otherwise it may cost you more in the
long run.
Psychological Perspectives: Psychology and notions of right and wrong
by Michael Catalanello,
Ph.D.
A question from a reader prompts a brief discussion of
the nature of psychology and its relationship to ethical questions.
By way of background, psychologists have recently become
interested in investigating the personality characteristics of individuals
who become followers of terrorist organizations. This was a topic of a
recent Psychological Perspectives column (Pattaya Mail, October 14, 2004).
According to a summary of this research published by the
American Psychological Association (APA), “If the movement sees itself as
acting in the name of the ‘proper’ authorities, and preserving or
restoring the ‘established’ values and conventions of a society, the
followers are apt to be right-wing authoritarians.” The column went on to
describe the attitudes and behavioral characteristics of individuals
identified with this personality trait, including dogmatism, religious
fundamentalism, and political conservatism.
The reader of this piece seemed to be wondering whether
it is “incorrect” for a person to subscribe to a notion of absolute
“right” and “wrong,” “good” and ‘evil” and then to apply
it, and whether having such views necessarily qualifies one as an
extremist.
On the question of whether someone with extreme views is
to be considered an extremist, I would say no. Psychologists generally
recommend against representing individuals in such global terms, because
doing so suggests that the person is 100% what the label implies. We prefer
saying that someone holds certain views, maintains certain attitudes,
exhibits certain behaviors or characteristics. This perspective allows for
the possibility that the person, under certain conditions, might not think
or behave as the label suggests, which certainly seems more in line with
experience.
If we happen to find people with a certain personality
trait within terrorist organizations, we can’t necessarily conclude that
the trait is a cause of terrorism, or that a person with the trait would
necessarily sympathize with a doctrine of violence. As my psychology
students realize, correlation does not equal causation. Terrorism, like
other forms of human behavior, is a complex phenomenon, and determining
potential causative factors poses formidable methodological problems for
researchers into this destructive and perplexing form of human behavior.
It is important to recognize that psychology, as a
social science, does not attempt to answer questions about “right” and
‘wrong,’ ‘good’ and ‘evil.’ Such questions lie more properly
within the realm of ethics and philosophy. Psychology, by identifying
itself as a science, strives to understand and generate meaningful
knowledge about its subject area in an objective and unbiased way. Today,
psychology seems to define itself as the scientific study of human
behavior, emotions, and mental processes, although it has defined itself
somewhat differently at various times during the course of its brief
history.
That is not to suggest that psychologists are not
interested in ethical matters. On the contrary, the world’s largest
professional organization of psychologists, the APA, has established a
comprehensive set of ethical principles and a code of conduct designed to
guide the scientific, educational, and professional activities of
psychologists.
This document establishes certain general principles
intended “... to guide and inspire psychologists toward the very highest
ethical ideals of the profession.” It contains a section on “general
principles” that addresses such issues as “responsibility,”
‘integrity,” “justice,” and “respect for people’s rights and
dignity.” The bulk of the document, however, is devoted to “ethical
standards,” the specific “dos and don’ts” that inevitably come up
in the day to day professional practice of psychology, from the keeping of
records, to confidentiality, to the use of human subjects in research.
The point is that these principles are established not
by appeal to psychological or empirical research. Rather, they originate
from the area of philosophy that deals with questions of right and wrong,
that of ethics.
I hope that I have answered my reader’s question.
Dr. Catalanello is a licensed psychologist in his home
State of Louisiana, USA. He is a member of the Faculty of Liberal Arts at
Asian University, Chonburi. Address questions and comments to him at [email protected]
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