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Money matters: Fallout from the US election
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
In the aftermath of George W. Bush being declared the victor
in one of the closest battles for the US presidency in the last century, the
markets have generally responded positively to the news, as it was expected they
would. Better the devil you know, even if some would argue that phrase applies
more literally than ever right now!
Passions were running very high in the US throughout the
campaign. In New York and other large cities rife with Kerry supporters, the
mood on the morning after the election was gloomy and depressed. America has
been split in two and the divisions are very wide, as the city of Washington
cast 90% of its votes for Kerry and just 9% for Bush, while the state of Utah
went 72% for Bush. Only 4% of those who voted for Bush professed to respect the
other candidate, and only 6% of those who voted for Kerry respected Bush. Bad
blood is everywhere.
No longer is there a centre in American politics, and
compromise between the two sides will be very difficult. It’s been said that a
successful democracy needs many in the role of honourable opposition to function
smoothly, but right now there don’t seem to be many to fill the position.
As asset managers our jobs are made easier by the Bush
victory. We read a great deal prior to the election penned by much respected
economists. This essentially said that the US economy was a ticking time bomb
that couldn’t be defused and it made little difference who won. We accepted
that and yet we didn’t. Kerry certainly wouldn’t have been able to solve the
problems facing the US economy, but he might have been able to apply some mild
palliative. Then again he might not. However, Bush’s victory means that we
really don’t have to spend any time figuring out what changes will come from
Washington in the months ahead. Steady as she goes.
Regardless of what happens in the world, Bush is not going to
change. In the economic and financial area, Bush has followed his ideas about as
far as he can because the government deficit is historically large and the tax
structure allows little scope for further cuts (to the prudent it allows no
scope at all, but that was equally true ahead of the latest round of cuts).
Any deterioration in the situation in Iraq and Afghanistan,
any further activity from the various terrorist groups, any increase in tensions
with other states regarded by Washington as being “rogue” will dominate the
administration’s international agenda in 2005.
All this will occur against a backdrop of declining GDP
growth and increasing stress in the financial markets as effect of the earlier
tax cuts and low interest rates becomes increasingly weaker and fades in the
memory. With the deficit so large and interest rates so low, there won’t be
any easy alternatives left and the economy will be at risk.
Both the occupations in Afghanistan and Iraq and the economy
at home have seen better times and will end up in trouble, probably sooner
rather than later. The new administration will have its hands full.
Who really wants to be president in these troubled times?
John Kerry’s status in history may have received its greatest fillip this week
thanks to the extra 4 million voters who preferred Dubya. Winning this election
might have been as catastrophic for Kerry as winning in 1929 was for Herbert
Hoover.
One of our preferred currency analysts, John Taylor of FX
Concepts has even compared Kerry’s defeat to Brer Fox, in the old folktale of
the American South. He thinks that John Kerry has tricked George Bush, playing
the part of the not particularly bright Brer Rabbit, into picking up the Tar
Baby, which is stuck on the administration for the next four years. While we
don’t think that the defeat was quite so premeditated, we agree that it’s a
poisoned chalice.
Against the quiet backdrop of the political manoeuvrings the
markets continue to whirr away noisily. Nowhere being noisier than the foreign
exchange markets right now. There is a strong desire within the US government to
see the yen strengthen and occupy a level that is more compatible with its
powerful export performance, but there are two problems standing in the way of
this American wish.
The first is a geopolitical reality. China’s tremendous
export machine is tied to the US dollar at a fixed rate and any strengthening of
the yen would harm the Japanese export sector. This situation has kept the Bank
of Japan and the Ministry of Finance in the market for the past two years, if at
times overtly. Even then, Japanese firms have lost competitive advantage since
January 2002, when the yen began to rally against the dollar. If China refuses
to move, the Japanese are likely to do whatever they actually can to try to
strenuously resist any strengthening of the yen.
The long term impact of intervention might be debatable but a
more fundamental reason why the yen will not appreciate much longer is the
embedded relationship between the cycles of the yen, the US equity market, and
the US economy - not a statistical co-incidence but a reflection of the impact
of the world’s biggest consumer on an economy dominated by exports.
This has caused the yen to become a pro-cyclical currency.
This has developed in such a way that the lead times within these relationships
have become fairly fixed.
We can now see that the value of the yen leads the S&P
Index by about 9 months, and the S&P leads the US economy by about 6 months.
As a result, the value of the yen is usually more than one
year ahead of the economy. Because the cycles are four years long, half the
time, the trends do not match. For instance, the yen peaked at the end of 1999,
equities peaked in August 2000, and the US economy followed in early 2001.
If the yen topped last March, then this would suggest that
the S&P top will happen by January, and the economy should drop later next
year. The yen may then face a year of decline in 2005 with its weakness
increasing as the year progresses, although we would be looking for the Japanese
economy and currency to break out of the cycle by stimulating domestic demand to
replace the exports to Wal-Mart, etc.
The above data and research was compiled from sources believed to be
reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its officers can
accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above article nor
bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any actions
taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For more
information please contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]
Snap Shots: Take the camera on holiday
by Harry Flashman
One of the last items to be flung in the suitcase when
you are packing for your holidays is the camera. I believe it should be
the first, as much of the enjoyment from holidays comes later in recalling
the fun times with family and friends. And what better way than by
snapshots.
 The
old and the new in Chiang Mai
Let’s
look at a few specific examples of “how to” when you are looking to
record those “once in a lifetime” events you will see while on
vacation.
Every city, town or village anywhere has its parades,
but have you ever tried to record a parade? It is actually very difficult.
The eye sees a long procession of musicians, marchers, flag wavers and the
like as they pass by, but the camera sees only one thin slice of the
action about 1/60th of a second long!
There is only one way to get parades, and that’s get
up high and preferably use a long lens. By shooting down the oncoming
procession you will get several squads of musicians, marchers, etc., all
on the one frame of film. By using the telephoto lens you ‘compress’
the action and get even more in the one negative. Honestly, if you can’t
get up high don’t take parades. You will be disappointed with all ground
level shots.
All tourist towns have their nightlife. Lots of lights,
neon signs and flood-lit fountains are the norm for this type of
photograph. The secret here is a wide angle lens with an aperture down
around f 1.8 and some “fast” film. This is the time to get some 800
ASA film, or 400 ASA at least. The other trick is not to use your flash.
Let the attractions provide the illumination, rather than blitzing it with
flash bursts. If you try and take neon light using flash you will totally
wash out the neon and again get very disappointing results.
One of the more challenging travel situations is the
winter snow holiday or the summer beach holiday. The problems are the
same. The camera auto exposure meter will try and record the white snow or
yellow beaches as ‘grey’. The best way here is to use a Polarizing
filter and open up the aperture by one stop more than the auto thinks
should be used. You are potting more light onto the film and ‘blowing
out’ the snow or the sand. The Polarizer will also give you a blue sky
to contrast with the snow or sand. The time of day is also important.
Shoot early morning or late afternoon when the sun’s rays are skimming
across the snow or sand and the tracks and ridges in the environment will
show up as shadows.
Capturing falling snow is another difficult winter
holiday challenge. If the shutter speed is too fast you will not really
get the full concept of the snow storm. The secret here is to use a slow
shutter speed and let the snow produce white streaks across the
photograph. Round about 1/30th of a second works well and you can even use
the on camera flash as well to add some bright highlights.
Some of you will be exponents of the wilderness type
holiday, trekking and camping and taking in the vast grandeur of
breathtaking natural wonders. The secret here is a wide angle lens, look
for low viewpoints and use slow film, plus a tripod if you can. The idea
here is to set the lens at around f 16 or f 22 to maximize the depth of
field. This in turn and the slow film, will require longer exposures -
hence the tripod. Shooting in this way will give you maximum detail in the
shot, maximum content and theatre. Finally, shoot early morning or late
afternoon as well to get the dramatic shadow effects and really give the
impact to the Grand Canyon!
So you can see, whilst you can get holiday “snaps” with the trusty
point and shooter, to really get the really great holiday photographs you
will need a choice of lenses, a choice of film and a tripod.
Modern Medicine: Slashing one’s wrists
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
Whilst slashing one’s wrists is a commonly
used way of attempting suicide (though not often successful), slashing a wrist
can produce a great deal of bleeding, enough to make onlookers feel very weak,
as well as yourself!
However, if you have cut yourself severely enough and you
lose enough blood, you can indeed die. It won’t be instantaneous, so you do
have plenty of time to do something about it, even by yourself if nobody else is
around. The thing to do is to keep your head, when everyone else is losing
theirs. (That was a famous quote during the French Revolution!)
People still faint at the sight of blood. In fact, in my
class in medical school we had such a chap who managed to last till third year
but kept on fainting, even when we were being shown slides of anything a little
gory. He certainly had picked the wrong course of study.
‘Blood’ has no ‘magical’ properties. It is mainly a
water solution with oxygen bearing red cells and disease fighting white blood
cells floating in it. Unfortunately, we do need blood to circulate the red cells
or otherwise the tissues starve of oxygen and they die, so we die. Simple.
Our blood circulation system is also very simple. It is
really just a closed circuit pumping system - the heart pumps the blood through
the arteries which get progressively smaller then hook up with tiny veins that
get larger and larger and return the blood to the pump (the heart).
Because it is a closed system, you do not get to see this
blood rushing around - until we open up an artery or a vein. Then you can see
lots of it! The common way this occurs is when we accidentally cut ourselves,
which we medical folk call “lacerations”. No matter how it happened, if you
cut open a vein or artery, the heart pump keeps on pumping and the blood keeps
on coming out.
So how do you know if you’ve cut an artery or a vein? If it
is a vein, the blood pumping at a fairly low pressure, so you get a nice steady
ooze at the site of the cut. But if it is an artery that has been cut, then
these are high pressure pipes and the blood will spurt in rhythmic pulses, in
time with your heart beat.
From the point of view of stopping the blood loss (which we
call haemorrhage, or hemorrhage if you come from the other side of the Atlantic
Ocean), it does not really matter whether the blood loss is venous or arterial.
Even arterial blood is only at 3 pounds per square inch pressure and you can
stop the flow with your thumb. You can stop 99 percent of all haemorrhages by
putting a piece of cloth (a handkerchief, rag, torn piece of shirt, etc.) over
the site of the wound and applying firm pressure with your hand.
Some parts of the body have more blood vessels than others,
so these are the areas that really bleed. The scalp, the ear lobe and around the
mouth are classic sites. Fortunately the treatment is always the same. Cover and
apply direct pressure and the flow will cease. Of course, you will still need to
see the doctor for the closing of the laceration - but you will not bleed to
death in the meantime!
Elevate the limb, apply direct pressure over the wound and
take it and yourself to the trauma centre!
Learn to Live to Learn: The case for ‘A’ levels
by George BenediktAbout a month ago, I described the British based ‘A’
level system as ‘unfairly maligned in some quarters as antique but nonetheless
typically slow to adapt’. It’s time to examine that statement in a
self-critical way.
Although personally I was not a product of an ‘A’ level
system, the more I come to learn about the courses and the access it provides to
the top universities in the world, the more I come to revere it.
From a teaching, parenting and student perspective, not only
do ‘A’ levels make sense, but they can stand their own ground very nicely
thank you, when compared to the IB diploma and ‘AP’ (Advanced Placement
Programme).
By the way, dealing as I have done with IB diploma first,
‘A’ levels second and ‘AP’ last, by no means infers a personal
preference. Actually, as a high school student I feel I was fortunate to have
studied the ‘European Baccalaureate’ which, as its name suggests, is routed
in Europe and has similarities to all three pre-university programmes I am
examining. But it is not studied in our region, and so I don’t propose to
venture into that which is not relevant to us here in the region.
The great thing about ‘A’ levels is that they are parent
and student friendly. This column aims to provide parents and students with
relevant information in a concise, critical and compassionate format that can
assist them when it comes to making critical choices in education and ‘A’
levels really fits snugly into the category of ‘making relevant and informed
choices’.
To begin with, let’s focus on three areas of ‘A’ levels
– The Appropriate, The Application and The Admission.
The Appropriate
In Chonburi or in Rayong or Bangkok for that matter, if
you’re a parent or a student looking at the variety of pre-university
offerings, then ‘A’ levels can make real sense. They allow you to focus on
specific areas of interest, persuasion and excellence at a reasonably mature age
– usually ‘A’ level students are 16 when they begin their two year
programme.
For many students (and ‘A’ level advocates would point to
this as a significant advantage over courses like the IB diploma) the
opportunity to study their favourite subjects intensively is something that they
have been waiting for since age 11.
No longer are students forced to study subjects they feel
uncomfortable with, no longer are students with no inclination towards or
propensity for a second language forced to study a subject that makes them
uncomfortable and unhappy. No longer are students forced to engage in breadth of
study at the expense of depth. No longer do students have to maintain pretence
towards some kind of ideological philosophy which maintains a bias towards
liberal or socialist politics.
If anything, ‘A’ levels are unashamedly student, parent
and market-orientated. If they had a slogan other than being ‘proof of
academic ability’’, then maybe it would be something like ‘we do what we
say’.
Let’s face it. At aged 16, do you really need to concern
yourself with global politics? Is it a good idea to spend all your waking hours
‘learning’? Why should you devote the best years of your life to helping
other people?
Surely this is the age of hedonism, of personal direction and
not to espouse selfishness by any means, is it not an age when we all enjoyed
ourselves?
Surely kids 16-18, studying a pre-university course, should
be encouraged to have freedom and through this, self-expression? You can’t
teach this can you? You have to experience it!
Getting into university is hard enough and surely the biggest
argument in favour of ‘A’ levels is that they get your kid where they want
to be, where you want them to be, it costs less and they are not completely
overwhelmed by additional and conditional aspects to the course. You take three,
four, five ‘A’ levels and you go where you want to university.
The Application
If the major difficulty with the IB diploma can be said to be
maintaining standards in implementation, then ‘A’ levels are the opposite.
Easy to run, free if you already teach IGCSE and familiar (if a school has
British staff) they represent a natural progression and obvious option for
‘British’ or ‘British-style’ schools who prefer not to have anything to
do with things that are ‘not-British’ (whatever that is!).
But does this mean that ‘A’ levels are in some way
incompatible with ‘international’ schools? No more so than IB is
incompatible with schools declaring a nationalist teaching orientation.
Teachers recruited at the ‘A’ level end of the school are
expected to have experience of teaching the course and this represents a
significant advantage over IB, which requires training of all staff, which is
funded from you, the parents’ pocket.
Nonetheless, ‘A’ levels have received criticism in some
quarters for apparently attempting to ‘tack-on’ aspects of current
educational ‘fads’ such as ‘international understanding’ or breadth of
study (for example through the one year ‘AS’ level).
The Admission
‘A’ levels are particularly useful if students want to go
to university in any country that experienced British Imperialism and many more
besides. They are currency. They are the educational pound against which many of
their competitors are rated.
In this sense the IB diploma is very much the euro and you
might rightly think that in this regard ‘A’ levels have the advantage.
Students from around the world have benefited from an almost global tertiary
acknowledgement of the quality of the programme and just as with the ‘AP’
and the IB, university credit can be received for exam success.
Advocates maintain that ‘A’ levels have a valid and
wholesome niche in education and the marketplace, primarily in Britain and
increasingly abroad and whilst the international growth of the programme may not
compare to that of the IB diploma, there is undoubtedly a market founded in
British values (not an oxymoron!).
‘A’ levels entail quality specific delivery of subject
areas, unashamed focus on specific areas of student interest and established
university admission around the world, something that the IB diploma amongst
others, is still working towards.
Next week – the nuts and bolts of ‘A’ levels.
Dear Readers,
The world is a tempestuous and uncertain place. Duty has
called me to the north and will prevent me from adding to this column further.
However, the really splendid news is that the column will now be taken over by a
great friend of mine, Andrew Watson. A Cambridge Blue, Andrew is a highly
regarded and respected figure in local and regional education currently teaching
at St Andrews, Rayong and previously one of the Heads of GIS. He has also been
closely involved with Asian University and is thus in a perfect position to take
over the reins. In wishing him all future success with the column, I would like
to especially thank the editor and the proprietor of the Pattaya Mail for their
unstinting support and I would like to thank you, the reader, for your support
and comments of all kinds!
Thanks very much!
George Benedikt
 Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
Deepjoy your wickey -baskey full of dribdrobs! Shall dashly mad barbeerio
for downit glistle and malty! Ahh, deepjoy togethermost!
Mistersingha
Dear Mistersingha,
I think this time you’ve gone flippedippy. Take more water with it, Petal.
Dear Hillary,
I lent a lady over 4 million baht, so I reckon I know twice
as much about lending than Ken (ex-Pattaya resident) a couple of weeks back who
only outlaid 2 million. He should think himself lucky that he got to help spend
the two mill he coughed up, and I presume he lives in the house too and gets to
drive the pickup if he’s been a good boy. I didn’t even get to set foot in
the house, but she did send me a photo after I bought it. OK, so I was stupid to
send that kind of money over to Thailand. My friends all warned me, but I
thought I was different. After all I had known the “lady” for over six
years, spent six months of each of those six years with her and helped her start
a small business. We had no secrets from each other, did we? She knew I was
married, I knew that she was single. So my money’s gone. So the “lady” has
gone. I’m not going to cry over spilled milk, or spilled money, but it ain’t
as good as you say it is, ex Pattaya resident Ken. It ain’t.
Ex Birmingham resident Bob (now Chiang Mai)
Dear Ex Birmingham resident Bob (now Chiang Mai),
Hillary is glad you are you are not holding on to bitterness,
despite the financial loss. Life and love and lottery all start with “L” and
can end in hell. You didn’t draw one of the winning tickets, but Ken did. I
just hope that you keep up that strong spirit. There are better ones out there.
Perhaps you should try an Isaan girl as Ken suggests - or did the last one come
from there too? I have to say that I doubt if you would have given forty
thousand pounds to a girl in Birmingham to spend, while you were over here on
your six month period, now would you. It ain’t different, Bob. It ain’t.
Dear Hillary,
I have noticed that you spend much of your column appealing
to your worried clients who want good advice to send you champagne and
chocolates. Do you think this is fair? These people have problems and you
dismiss them with a “send chocolates and champagne” answer. What is it with
you and the choccies anyway?
Perplexed
Dear Perplexed,
You young people are all the same these days - wanting an
answer for everything. Some things are just written in the stars, my Perplexed
Petal. I suppose you also want to know why the earth is round, when the simple
answer is just because it is! Or why the moon is made of green cheese. Likewise
with Hillary and my chocolates. Now, for having read your letter, Perplexed,
that’s one chocolate bar. For replying to it that’s another. Remember that
not everyone is like you, my little enquirer. There are some writers who
appreciate the hours and hours I agonize over the replies and send suitable
recompense. Mistersingha is not one of them.
Dear Hillary,
I have been told by some friends in the pub over here that my
Thai children cannot inherit my estate when I die. Their mother and I have been
together for nearly eighteen years, but we have never been “officially”
married and I have a grown up family back home (UK). What is the situation as
regards my Thai kids? All that I want is that what I have in Thailand is theirs.
With what my friends are telling me, I am worried that in the event of my dying
(I am 69 at present and the children are 12, 10 and 7) they will be left with
nothing. I don’t have much, but the UK family is all grown up and since they
don’t care about me, they can take care of themselves. Can you sort this out,
Hillary?
Ready to Go
Dear Ready steady Go,
Please don’t go yet. There are a few things you have to do
before you pop off, Petal. First, have you made a valid will in Thailand? If you
have not, then your family in the UK would have certain rights to your estate,
which could rate higher than your Thai children’s rights. It is all very
complicated, as these things always are. There’s nothing like a good fun
funeral to get family members scratching each other’s eyes out! The important
factor to protect your kiddies here is to see an accredited lawyer who will
register your will in English and in Thai. If you really are that close to
shuffling off then do it today! For that matter, do it today anyway - you might
get run over by a rampant red bus. Your embassy can advise you on lawyers if you
are unsure. Hillary is glad to see that you are protecting the welfare and
future of your new family too.
PC Blues - News and Views:
Blue Sky Computing
Vernor Vinge is a modern writer of Science Fiction,
and a mathematician. He has been writing about the longer term future of
computing. In his view, within the next twenty or thirty years we will
have super-intelligent computers. Human intelligence will take second
place to its own invention. This will happen within our lifetimes.
Computing capacity still follows Moore’s law, which
says the power doubles every twenty months. The law has been correct now
for thirty years, and shows no sign of failing. There have often been
predictions of failure due to the limitations of this or that
technology, but man’s inventiveness has always side-stepped the
limitation one way or another.
Mythology contains many examples of the prediction of
artificial intelligence, usually with disastrous consequences for the
creator and/or the creation. The Golem and Frankenstein’s monster are
but two instances. Modern Science Fiction abounds with intelligent
robots and androids, both good and bad. Very soon we will have the
ability to do just this, and inevitably, someone will do it, either
deliberately or accidentally.
There is some doubt that we can construct a
self-aware intelligent computer. Basically because we have no scientific
theoretical basis for understanding the self-awareness of living
organisms. None at all. Sir Roger Penrose went into this in some detail
in his books, Shadows of the Mind and The Emperor’s New Mind. Shadows
of the Mind is subtitled ‘A Search for the Missing Science of
Consciousness’. Almost all the physics we know comes from two basic
systems - Einstein’s General Relativity, and Quantum Theory: note that
these two theories are not yet unified. He demonstrates lucidly that we
cannot understand consciousness in terms of known theories of physics,
in particular quantum theory. [Other eminent scientists disagree - but
there is no consensus of opinion.]
Therefore, we cannot plan to make a conscious
computer. We can experiment with trial and error, and hope that at some
level of complexity a miracle occurs.
On the other hand, man’s inventions don’t mimic
nature very closely. We have aeroplanes, but they don’t flap their
wings like birds. We may be happy to have a super-intelligent,
idiot-savant computer. We may make do with a computer-assisted brain.
Already, someone with the use of the internet, and the skills to use it
effectively, has an effective IQ far higher than his counterpart who has
no computer.
Suppose you had a mental connection to the internet,
satisfying your searches at the speed of thought. Suppose too that you
had the computing power of a PC of twenty years from now, to aid your
thought. (Moore’s law says that will be a PC over 4000 times as
powerful.) Suppose thirdly that you had the wit to use this wisely! You
would seem a bit godlike to the common man.
This is very dodgy. It is no use being
super-intelligent if you don’t have enough common sense to use it
wisely. On the other hand, the common sense answer is often not the
right one. Can people stand the realisation that all their common sense
answers are wrong? Super-intelligence may not be what people want. A lot
of the people I see around me would prefer not to have to think. To
them, it is unsatisfying hard work. Look on all the people who take to
drugs, trying to escape from reality. Nonetheless, there will be some
that want it, and some that think they want it.
In the beginning, this is going to be rather
expensive. I imagine we should equip our geniuses with such tools first.
Unfortunately, I expect the politicians will think otherwise - they will
want it for themselves, first. Alas, I have no confidence in any
politician using such skills wisely. All that will happen is they will
be better equipped to make more disastrous mistakes than before.
When this comes about, there will be interesting
times.
[There is one saving grace in all this. The
super-computers with Micro$oft software in them will be the first to
crash! When it happens, make sure you get one with Linux in it.]
Psychological Perspectives: Living with intense disappointment
by Michael Catalanello,
Ph.D.
Writing in the aftermath of the U.S.
Presidential election, I am aware of a deep sense of disappointment,
bordering on despair in many of my more progressive countrymen, as well as
my international friends. Alarmed by the provocative and militaristic turn
the U.S. has taken under the Bush administration, and the President’s
divisive stance on social issues like embryonic stem cell research and gay
marriage, many of us had passionately hoped to see a change in the White
House as a result of this election.
Nevertheless, the election is over. Our desire for
change, at least for now, remains frustrated. However distasteful its
outcome, the U.S. democratic process has worked its will. The question
before those of us in the loyal opposition is how best to deal with the
deep disappointment and emotional upset, and our fears of what foreign and
domestic horrors might lay ahead, given four more years of this
administration.
First, let us consider psychological techniques for
dealing with disappointment and emotional upsets. Contemporary cognitive
theorists like Albert Ellis and Aaron Beck point out the key role of our
thoughts and beliefs in determining our emotional response to potentially
disturbing events. Cognitive techniques are those that change our emotions
and behavior by modifying our beliefs, thoughts, attitudes, and self-talk.
Feelings of anger, hopelessness, and despair can usually
be found to be associated with certain related thoughts and beliefs. For
example, upon reflection we might discover that our anger or despair is
related to a view of the American President as “dishonest,” or
“evil.” By critically evaluating this belief, we might decide that we
have made a broad generalization about Bush’s nature, which cannot be
defended by appeal to the limited number of dishonest and evil acts he may
have performed. Thus we might change our thinking to a more rational view
of Bush as a fallible human, whose actions and decisions are sometimes, but
not always ill-informed and unwise.
Likewise, if we have been thinking of the election
outcome as catastrophic, we might critically evaluate that belief, and
conclude that, although it is unfortunate to the extreme, it might not
qualify as a genuine catastrophe. We might also decide that viewing four
more years of Bush as catastrophic is not worth the emotional suffering
that occurs as a byproduct of that belief. Accordingly, we might conclude
that this result is quite unpleasant and extremely distasteful, but
certainly not catastrophic. Instead of feeling angry, helpless, or
discouraged, we can then feel appropriately sad and disappointed.
Another cognitive technique involves trying to find the
interesting aspects of an unpleasant or disappointing event, or derive some
deeper understanding from the experience. For example, we might try to
understand the political and sociological implications of these election
results, and what they say about our times, or about the American people.
Along with the presidential election results, pollsters have collected rich
body of data in exit polls of voters which shed light upon the attitudes
and values of the people casting a vote one way or another. By examining
this data we might develop new theories or conclusions about important
factors affecting attitudes within our societies and our world.
Of course, changing our beliefs and attitudes takes
time. Recognizing the role of our irrational thoughts and disputing them is
a major first step. Significant long term change, however, requires
persistently and forcefully challenging our irrational beliefs over time
and replacing them with more rational ones.
Next week we will examine behavioral strategies we can
use to help us deal with undesirable events.
Dr. Catalanello is a licensed psychologist in his home
State of Louisiana, USA. He is a member of the Faculty of Liberal Arts at
Asian University, Chonburi. Address questions and comments to him at [email protected]
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