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Money matters: Commodities – The bull of the 00s? (Part 2)
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
Current demand
Where is this demand coming from? Our modern high-tech world
relies heavily on tangible physical commodities; from the silicon in our
computer chips to the steel in our cars. People around the world are striving
for American levels of comfort and consumption, which will ultimately increase
commodities demand.
Source:
ABNAMRO, July 2004
Think of China and India. China is the world’s leading
exporter and is developing a manufacturing base unequalled in world history. The
Chinese are growing more prosperous over time and are demanding more commodities
to increase their standard of living. With over a billion Chinese striving for
American standards of per-capita commodity consumption, the demand of
commodities could be greater than any other time in history.
China: Commodity Share of
World Usage
Defined as
primary consumption plus metal content of imported semis (for Cu and Al).
Seaborne trade share for iron ore. Source: Macquarie Equities.
India has another billion people with the same hopes as the
Chinese or Americans to increase their standard of living. Geo-politically,
there are over two billion Asians working hard to bring an American standard of
living to their families. They will need to consume unthinkable amounts of
commodities to chase this dream.
Demand Summary
We must look at the phenomenal demand from China, which has
been consuming a fifth or more of world production of metals like zinc and iron
ore. The Chinese economy has been growing by 8 percent a year, yet much of its
1.3 billion population has yet to own the fridges, cars and dishwashers the
western world takes for granted.
If growth can be properly managed, demand for these metals
should rise for years. While the Chinese economy is motoring, other parts of the
world are starting to recover, which should be good news for demand elsewhere.
Copper prices are soaring on increased global industrial
consumption. The Asian countries are booming and need vast amounts of copper to
build critical infrastructure. Even with wireless telecommunications networks
building up, the need for copper for everything from wires to pipes is immense.
It is interesting to note that the gains in copper exceeded those of the
precious metals last year.
From an inflation perspective, governments around the world
are multiplying their currencies at a rapid rate, so there is more and more
currency around for every given unit of commodities, driving up their prices
around the globe.
In the West, investors have discovered from the TMT bubble of
the ‘90’s bursting, even large companies like Marconi or Enron can all but
disappear, investing in something physical looks attractive.
The Professional’s Outlook
Hugh Hendry of Odey Asset Management, which launched a
commodities hedge fund last year, thinks we are at the start of a boom that
could last a decade. Authorities around the world have for the last 4 years
pumped out money to stave off the economic doldrums and the effects of that
liquidity are only now trickling through into a higher sustained level of demand
for basic commodities, irrespective of deteriorating current liquidity
conditions. Increasing supply can take years, so higher demand means higher
prices. MBMG International have for some time been positive about commodities
and with an ‘Overweight’ recommendation in their global overview.
Ian Henderson, who runs JPMorgan Fleming’s Natural
Resources fund, thinks there should be plenty of growth to come. “Commodity
prices are miles from their former peaks. If they were to get halfway back to
1993, prices would have to rise around 50 percent from where they are today. To
get to the 1987 peaks, they would need to be double where they are today.” His
views indicate that, when resource prices have rallied before, producers have
reacted by piling on capacity. So far that has not happened, because
consolidation across every industry has introduced greater financial discipline.
That means supply is tight whilst demand is increasing rapidly. The interest
from investors stems partly from the realisation that a diversified portfolio
decreases risk and the commodity cycle tends to be different from the equity
market.
The long term Kondratieff seasonal model favoured by Scott
Campbell of Optimal FM has for some time indicated that a period of sustained
out-performance by tangible assets versus financial assets was clearly overdue,
a theme that Scott highlighted at MBMG’s investor seminars in Bangkok, earlier
this year.
In Summary
Bull markets, coming off of long-term busts, always start out
slowly. It takes a long time to undo the damage done to investors after watching
a decade of price declines. By the time the bust is finally nearing its bottom,
no one wants to believe that a bull market is even possible anymore in the asset
class experiencing the bust. Fresh new buying migrates in slowly, a trickle at
first that may grow into a deluge many years later.
The S&P Commodities index fits this classic profile. This
basket of commodities isn’t rocketing up like a NASDAQ bear-market rally, but
it is climbing in a slow and methodical manner, as it ought to after an
eight-decade low point.
The rise of Asia is putting even more pressure on finite
global commodity supplies and could make this the largest Great Bull in
commodities in world history. Even if we see a recession from hereon in for the
next 3-6 years, much of the expenditure that will fuel the greater demand has
already taken place. The tap has been turned on and while the flow might not be
increased if a recession prevents further spending, it can’t be just turned
off again.
If all these fundamentals are not bullish enough, governments
around the world are inflating their currencies. With each passing day that
money supplies grow faster than commodity supplies, the prices of commodities in
general can only continue to rise in the future.
The commodities bull of the 00’s is rapidly becoming a
reality. We have already seen excellent performance from our preferred commodity
and precious metal based funds and the consensus is that we are in the earliest
stages of what could prove to be a massive commodities boom lasting a decade or
longer.
Important information
Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future
performance. The value of any investment and the income from it can fall as well
as rise as a result of market and currency fluctuations and you may not get back
the amount originally invested. This information is only a summary and may be
subject to change without notice. It was obtained from what we believe to be
reliable sources. However, its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. You should note
that investing in some of these markets could result in the possibility of large
and sudden falls in the price of shares. The shortfalls on cancellation or loss
on realisation could be considerable. You could get back nothing at all. Nothing
contained in this report should be construed as an offer to invest. Anyone
considering investing in these markets should seek professional guidance.
The above data and research was compiled from sources believed to be
reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its officers can
accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above article nor
bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any actions
taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For more
information please contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]
Snap Shots: Photography is
a dangerous pursuit
by Harry Flashman
In my years as a pro shooter I was called upon to get
some photographic images that were such that it was obviously going to be
dangerous. One such was an aerial shot taken from a helicopter. This
flying device had been modified for aerial photography by removing both
doors, making it an even more unsafe and uncomfortable mode of transport
than usual.
The brief was to photograph a particular building site
from around 600 feet up, and the direction had to be from the north. It
was a windy day and when we got to the shoot, the helicopter pilot was
unable to hover in a position where either of the door apertures would
give me the shot from the north. Since the hire of helicopters is not
cheap, and we only had one hour to get the shot, there was only one answer
- climb out on the landing struts and hang over the edge!
 Since
I get vertigo standing on a chair, this was not going to be easy.
Fortunately the helicopter was set up with a harness for me to wear, with
a rope leading back inside the cabin. You should try stepping out into
space at 600 feet up, no parachute, and a piece of ‘string’ attaching
you to a helicopter. It was not a case of just standing on the landing
struts, but I had to lean out, with the harness taking the strain as I
moved even further out (like a crew member on a yacht). The buffeting from
the rotors and the cold day all added to the problems I was having with
camera shake (compounded by fear).
Eventually I managed to get the shot I needed, using
hand signals to the pilot to indicate more or less height. Then I had to
get back in. Since I was already well past the point of no return, I had
to get the assistant to pull me in. But the assistant was a woman and not
strong enough. Fortunately the pilot saw what was the problem and assisted
with my retrieval. I have not done a helicopter shoot since that day.
However, much more dangerous was the following shoot,
done in my studio. The brief was an advertising shot for a bottle of
vodka. The final shot was to be the bottle sitting beside a dish of
strawberries. Now while that sounds simple, it is not all that easy.
The first item I had to get was the strawberries. Since
the client will complain if any strawberry is even slightly less than
perfect, this means you buy a huge amount of strawberries and spend the
next hour picking only the best ones. After that you paint them with
vegetable oil so they look all shiny and juicy. That was the easy bit.
Now to make a bowl of strawberries, and the bottle of
vodka ‘jump off’ the page, you have to light them from underneath. I
then used a sheet of glass supported at each end, about one metre from the
floor, pulled some metres of black paper from the background paper on a
roll hanging from the back wall of the studio, cut two holes in it where
the bowl and the bottle would sit and we were starting to look good.
While getting flash heads ready and the 5x4 plate
camera focused, I had the lights under the glass going. After several
minutes of fiddling and fussing I was ready to pull the first Polaroid.
While peering at the ground glass focusing screen I suddenly heard this
loud cracking noise. I looked up, just in time to be hit on the head by
the roll of black background paper!
After getting up I reconstructed what had happened. The
lights had heated the glass too much and it had broken. As it fell in two
pieces, it dragged the black background paper down too, and the roll came
off the hooks on the back wall, neatly landing on my head.
And you thought still life photography wasn’t
dangerous?
Modern Medicine: Why you should always wear shoes
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
My friends laugh at me when they see me
walking along the beach. Instead of letting the cool sand squish between my
toes, I wear closed shoes. Does this mean I am a pedantic pedestrian? Or a
member of a weird anti-sandal sect? Fortunately it is neither. I am just a
trifle afraid of Ancylostoma duodenale. And so should you!
Ancylostoma duodenale is one of the two hookworms that can
get their hooks into you (and me if I let them). The other is called Necator
americanus. These little chaps are roundworms between 7 to 13 mm long and are
far from rare. Approximately one-quarter of the world’s population is infected
with Hookworm.
So how do you get infected? Easy, the hookworm eggs are
passed in faeces (or poo if you prefer) and infection results when you come in
contact with the eggs from the contaminated soil. The larvae enter through the
skin and travel to the lungs through the blood. They ascend the lungs through
the bronchi and trachea and are then swallowed. As the larvae pass into the
digestive tract, they attach themselves to the wall of the small intestine. Here
they mature into adult worms, mate and feed on the blood of the host. And adult
hookworms may live up to ten years.
Unfortunately many hookworm infestations do not produce
symptoms; however, there may be local irritation of the skin where the worm
penetrated or even an itchy rash. While going through the lungs, there may be
asthma-like symptoms or even pneumonia. The most common symptoms of Hookworm
infection, however, are from their taking up residence in the intestine.
Hookworm here can lead to abdominal pain, diarrhoea, weight loss, loss of
appetite and excessive gas.
With long-standing infections, the intestine’s owner may
become anaemic as the worms feed on the individual’s blood. This in turn leads
to the usual anaemic symptoms including pale complexion, tiredness and weakness.
Diagnosis is done by looking for hookworm eggs in the stool
(by using a microscope). Blood tests will show the amount of blood loss and can
be used as a pointer towards the seriousness of the infestation.
Fortunately hookworm is treatable, generally with the drug
mebendazole. This drug cures more than 99 percent of all cases of hookworm if
given twice per day for three days. It kills both the worms and the eggs, but is
contraindicated during pregnancy. If anaemia has become a problem, then iron
supplements can be given as well. Once treated, the symptoms settle quickly in a
few weeks at most.
So what can you do to avoid hookworms? Well since hookworm
infection comes from non-hygienic practices and faecal contact in the soil, my
shoes sound like a great idea, don’t you think? Never mind the problems with
hypodermic needles found in the sand in many countries these days!
Hookworm infections should be dealt with quickly and
stringently. Known symptomatic infections should be treated rapidly and
treatment given to asymptomatic family members or neighbours. Strict attention
to cleanliness and sanitary practices is needed when a hookworm infection is
detected to prevent its spread. This means hygienic disposal of human waste,
limiting skin contact with soil and even water, where there is untreated sewage.
Hookworm can be a very serious illness so it is essential to
be aware of any change in one’s health status. Any difficulty breathing, rapid
heartbeat, chest or abdominal pain, bloody diarrhoea, blood with coughing,
asthma-like symptoms, skin rashes, abdominal swelling or bloating,
light-headedness or weight loss should be brought to your doctor’s attention.
Me? I’ll just keep wearing shoes!
Learn to Live to Learn: How standards can be maintained
with Andrew Watson
We are assured that A and AS Levels programmes
are continually monitored, developed and improved so that they maintain a mark
of quality assurance. However, leaving the maintenance of examination quality to
the examination board can have its drawbacks.
The United Kingdom has been riddled by controversy in recent
years over the perception that somehow, top grades have become easier to
acquire. There is certainly statistical evidence to back up this claim, with
legends circulating of A grades being awarded to students with as low as 47% in
some subjects.
Dangerous things though, statistics, and in order to come up
with a balanced understanding of any issue it seems imperative to take into
account all the variables, without prejudice.
It us undoubtedly true that successive governments in the
United Kingdom have identified education as a source of great political capital
and pressure has been put on educational bodies to come up with (sometimes
ingenious) ways of improving results. This has had some negative impacts on all
interest groups.
For parents and students, there is the whiff of
‘dilution’ of subject material, which the CIE and other examining bodies
might strenuously deny, but universities are beset by the problem of having to
distinguish between students with a plethora of A grades.
More often the differential between students can be found
only in the quantity of A grades at A level. Thus, students are put under even
more pressure by having to take on a greater number of A level subjects, all of
which are supposed to be studied in great depth.
It is in some ways ironic to consider that A levels may have
achieved greater breadth of study by default. The flexibility of the criterion
based IB marking system combined with its broader range of possible outcomes and
the central and critical record of CAS involvement and extended essay, gives
universities far more information on which to base their choice of student. In
this sense, A levels have been hoist by their own petard.
In A level students, one should expect to see evidence of
real ability, knowledge and understanding. Perhaps a critical divergence with IB
is that when we talk about knowledge and understanding with A levels (and this
is simplified) we might expect a student to ‘know lots of facts’ or to be
able to answer complex, mathematical questions correctly, or to render an object
with technical and observational, drawing skill.
With IB, the student learns about where those facts come
from, learns to question whether they’re true or not, they learn to apply
mathematical theory to the world outside and in Visual Arts, the student learns
what you can do with the object, once you have rendered it.
The question for potential A level customers is, “Is it
necessary to undertake extra, essentially tertiary level requirements such as
demanded in IB, in high school?” The answer for many is a resounding “no”.
A levels present the opportunity for students to really get to know their
subject well. I can still recite my Shakespeare that I studied for A level.
From a school perspective, the conditions for the successful
management of an A level programme can be said to be the same as for any other
programme. Quality results require quality delivery and quality facilities.
There is very much a ‘whole school’ aspect to this, which
ranges from ensuring teachers have appropriate experience and qualifications, to
the concept of a logical continuum of curriculum from kindergarten through to
pre-university.
What A levels can undoubtedly provide is the freedom for a
school to form their own strong identity of which the A level examinations are
but a part. A school can develop imaginatively, especially in a private
international school setting and with the input of the interest groups, there
exists the opportunity to create a dynamic, refreshing and community orientated
school. Through a process of consultation, students, parents and faculty can
really forge an exciting future for themselves.
For the time being, I will now depart from A levels, crossing
the educational Atlantic as it were, to the land of the Advanced Placement
Programme (AP).
Next week – Quality, Concentration, Depth – the Advanced
Placement Programme
I encourage you to send your thoughts, experiences and
suggestions to me by email at this address: [email protected]
 Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
I wasn’t going to answer your sad second part of your answer to my letter
of the other week. Why are you so cynical? Perhaps you have been in Pattaya
too long and it is time for you to move on to pastures anew. By the way we
ate the chickens, ate one dog, and ate one cow. Buffalo, we have one ... ME!
Ken (permanent resident of Sakon Nakhon)
Dear Ken (permanent resident of sakon nakhon),
Last time you wrote was six weeks ago, Petal, and even though my memory is
failing, last time you called yourself “ex-Pattaya resident Ken”. I
don’t know why you think I am cynical. I replied “There is only one
thing that worries me slightly with your idyllic situation that you outlined
in your letter - you mention house, pickup, 6 dogs, 5 cows, 1 pig, and
chickens and 9 rai of land, but where is the buffalo? For two million you
should have been able to get a buffalo plus 12 months veterinary maintenance
thrown in free after that sort of big spend! Enjoy Isaan, Ken. You sound
like a very nice chap, and when you want to lend another two million to a
lady, Hillary is always waiting!” If you think that is being cynical I am
happy to withdraw the part where I said you sound like a very nice chap.
Just send the money, Petal and I’ll move into your nine rai of land, that
sounds like pastures new enough.
Dear Hillary,
I apologize for my unprofessional English. Is it possible
that a letter from Germany are not arriving the receiver or right target? I have
meet a nice Thai girl in the last holiday and the friendship between us are
deepens already. I write in the such time several letters to my girlfriend and
she write to me back. And we have no problems until now. The last letter I write
on August but no answer. Inside the letter 1,000 baht and some picture of me. I
ringed to my girl at the bar but she said there is no letter coming from me.
What will I do? Your newspaper are my only help for my Heartbreak Situation. I
talk with other people who are stay in Thailand before and they talk to me that
some girls just lying. But I am really desperate and I only want to know what is
true or not, because I love she very much. Have maybe somebody of the Post staff
stolen the letter or anybody else? So now I want to know your meaning about this
sadden situation. I am thank you and I looking forward of an answer of you to
me.
Heartbroken Helmut
Dear Heartbroken Helmut,
Don’t worry about your English as your emotions came
through very plainly (and painfully too). Unfortunately I have heard from many
people that letters containing money go missing. The answer is to disguise the
fact that there may be money in the letter by putting it inside a card or a
small magazine. That way when the letter is held up to a bright light you cannot
see the money inside, but there are other ways of sending money over here which
are much safer too. Your girlfriend at the bar will know them all, or her
friends will. Perhaps it might be better to save your money so that you can get
over here more often. I don’t think your girlfriend is lying. For 1,000 baht,
no. For a million - well that’s another story.
Dear Hillary,
I don’t know if you answer ‘food’ questions, but here
goes anyway. I have seen people eating what looks like an egg ‘parcel’ with
meat inside it. They cook it in the wok and fold the egg over like wrapping a
flat square object. What is it? And would it be too spicy for someone like me
who is a little afraid of spicy food? I really do want to try but I am just a
little afraid to go in and point!
Spicy Sue
Dear Spicy Sue,
I am sure you are referring to a Thai omelette, called ‘kai
yat sai’. Generally it is pork based, but you can get chicken as well - ask
for kai yat sai moo (pork) or kai yat sai gai (chicken). When it comes to the
table it will have a little bowl of red ketchup - but beware, it is chilli, not
tomato! Around 50 baht at most food carts. Enjoy!
Dear Hillary,
I notice that you have sometimes published letters sent to
your good self which have occasionally been uncomplimentary, or even openly
rude. Firstly, let me say that I think you are a brave lady to do this, but
secondly, why would people write in just to be rude or complain? Surely they are
the sick ones, not you? Or haven’t they got anything better to do than throw
brickbats? I send you a bouquet anyway, Hillary.
Jimmy
Dear Jimmy,
You are a lovely man. I knew it the minute I opened your
letter and smelled the bouquet. I could not have said it any better myself
without getting bitchy. Mind you, chocolates would have tasted better than
bouquets!
Horsin’ Around: Horse riding stables around Pattaya
There are quite a number of places in
Pattaya where people can go horseback riding. Even though horses were never
very common as a means of transportation in Thailand, they were definitely
always a part of the resort town of Pattaya.
Twenty something years ago, there were ponies kept at the
end of North-Pattaya Beach. Riding was arranged not unlike the present day
horse riding at the beach of Cha-am on the opposite side of the gulf, where
you hop on for good luck.
Horse
trekking close to Pattaya.
The first privately owned stable in Pattaya and perhaps
in the whole of Thailand was the Reo Ranch, actually a misspelling of Rio
Ranch, established in 1983. Built and owned by Lionel Grant from Australia
and his close friend Trevor from New Zealand, two well known devotees to the
good life making their dream come true and creating a beautiful Mexican
style dude ranch. They imported a number of nice horses from down under,
most of them appaloosas. I can consider myself being lucky to have spent
most of my free time at this ranch and I can claim to have earned my spurs
there in many possible ways.
Some of the more regular customers at this place were the
owners of the Horseshoe Point. Perhaps they may have been inspired by the
Reo Ranch to build their own place, which is at present the biggest and most
luxurious of all horse riding places in Pattaya, and probably of all Asia,
offering anything concerning horses. Both places are on the street to Siam
Country Club. The Reo Ranch closed down after 10 years and most horses were
bought by the Horseshoe Point.
I was able to obtain a couple of nice horses for myself
and opened the Outdoor Stables at the Kamin Mountains opposite the Bira
Circuit, taking people out on a hack and specializing in teaching beginners.
A very valuable addition came a few years later with the
opening of the St. Andrews Equestrian Centre. Closely observing the
guidelines of the British Horse Society, these stables can be well
recommended for our little riders.
Closer to Pattaya is another Riding Centre called the
Jojo Riding Club. This place is actually in Naklua and has some nice horses,
too.
The newest addition is the Pattaya Riding Club on
Sukhumvit Road in the Jomtien area, a favorite for people from Bangkok.
Last but not least, I would like to include the Siam Polo Park. It is not
far from the Horseshoe Point on the street leading to Jomtien Beach. They
have a proper polo ground with plenty of horses from Argentina.
PC Blues - News and Views:
Anti-Spyware Guide
Steve Gibson (grc.com/default.htm) has alerted us to
an excellent and authoritative study of spyware - in particular, an
assessment of the tools for blocking it, or removing it, if present.
Spyware is not a virus, as such, but is a program
which secretly sits in your computer logging everything you do. When you
connect to the internet, it then reports all of this to its masters. It
is principally a market research tool, looking for people’s likely
spending habits, but it can be more evil, logging passwords, credit card
numbers, pin numbers and other valuable information. Even when innocent,
few people would want this on their machine.
There are a large number of anti-spyware programs,
many of them free, which offer to clean and protect your computer.
According to the report, few of them are any good, and a fair number are
malicious (i.e., they are spyware, or worse).
The report (spywarewarrior. com/asw-test-guide.htm)
gives good advice as to which anti-spyware programs are trustworthy and
effective, and which should not be touched with a barge pole. The three
leading candidates are Giant Anti-Spyware at 30 USD (www.
giantcompany.com/), Spy Sweeper at 30 USD (www. webroot.com/products/spy
sweeper/), and Ad-Aware (www.lavasoft.de/). The report goes on to
recommend that you use at least two of these in tandem, as their
operations tend to overlap, and the best caught no more than three
quarters of the spyware programs used in the tests. You are advised to
keep the programs updated frequently, as the spyware attacks are highly
volatile.
There is further excellent advice in the report. It
turns out that ‘good’ spyware can be very difficult to remove. There
is a program called Hijack This, available from www.spywareinfo.com/~merijn
/downloads.html This is said to be effective in the hands of experts.
There are also anti-spyware forums for the less skilled, where advice
and help can be sought, listed at www.spywarewarrior.com/rogue_anti-spyware.htm#online
paragraph 2.
Further advice follows, guiding users in the
direction of configuring their PCs securely (netfiles.uiuc.edu/ehowes/www/btw/ie/ie-opts.htm),
and installing anti-spyware software such as SpywareGuard (www.
javacoolsoftware.com/spywareguard.html) or SpywareBlaster (www.java
coolsoftware.com/spyware blaster.html) which will go some way to
preventing the problem appearing in the first place.
One important thing to do is securely configure the
Internet Explorer. The latest versions of IE will allow you to do this,
but there is a side effect. Websites you trust will then not work until
you explicitly add them to the IE trusted list. This link, netfiles .uiuc.edu/ehowes/www/btw
/ie/ie-opts.htm, will tell you how to do this. Alternatively, there is a
program which will do it for you, if you trust it, at netfiles.uiuc.edu/ehowes/www/resource6.htm
Finally, there is a list of sites, which you should
put on the restricted list: again, there is a script to do this for you
at netfiles.uiuc.edu/ehowes/www/resource.htm.
After all this, you should sleep more easily at
night.
Psychological Perspectives: Reflections on Christmas and relationships
by Michael Catalanello,
Ph.D.
With Christmas just around the corner, I
wrote a “ho hum” column about dealing with holiday stress. After
reading it, my good friend and writing coach Marisa suggested a more
original approach to a holiday piece: “…the nature of personal
relationships and how they shift and strain in these occasions.”
According to Marisa, “If we look at holiday rituals as serving a social
or psychological function, then it makes for an interesting idea: Can we
use holiday events as a unique context or ‘bubble’ from which to heal
broken relationships, or reassert our position within our family/circle of
friends?”
The idea seemed timely, and hit home for me personally.
My family and I will be traveling to the U.S. this year to visit friends
and family we have not seen in three years. There is much excitement in
anticipation of the trip, the preparations, planning our itinerary, the
places we want to visit and things we want to do.
Our first stop will be Los Angeles, to spend a few days
with our good friends Roger and Judy. Then it’s on to New Orleans, my
home town where my mother, stepfather, and three siblings and their
families still reside. I also have nieces, nephews, aunts, uncles, and
cousins too numerous to mention, all living in and around the New Orleans
area. I have a daughter in Florida who will be joining us in New Orleans,
and another who seems to move around quite a bit. I’m not sure where she
is at the moment, as we are estranged.
I admit that I had given thought to the issue raised by
Marisa. The notion of Christmas as a special time of the year, when
miracles can come true is a common theme in novels and motion pictures. I
wondered if I should contact my estranged daughter and try to arrange a
visit. I wondered if it would be possible for me and my daughter to get
over our past differences and, at the very least temporarily interact in a
healthy and mutually respectful way. Surely it could happen at Christmas!
The last time I saw her was Christmas Eve in 1999. It
seemed to me to go reasonably well at the time, although not exactly as I
had hoped it would. We hugged and posed for pictures. There were few words,
but I interpreted that as not necessarily a bad thing, under the
circumstances. We’d had difficulties for several years prior to that
occasion. Progress in overcoming bad feelings, I reasoned, can take time. I
later found out that she was dissatisfied with my behavior on that
occasion, and wanted no more to do with me as a result.
Reflecting upon that experience today, I’d say it’s
probably best to keep a realistic attitude about existing family and
relationship problems and the prospects for overcoming them during the
Christmas season. We need to recognize that we humans are imperfect
creatures, subject to all manner of disagreement, misunderstanding, and
interpersonal conflict. No relationship is perfect, except perhaps those of
the fairy tale variety.
It is also possible that the “magic” of Christmas
could work against us and our desire to repair damaged relationships. I
suppose if we raise our expectations too high for a Christmas
reconciliation, anything short of the perfect movie ending we desire can
appear as disappointing, a complete failure. Perhaps we put too much
pressure on ourselves and others to resolve our differences during the
brief window of opportunity offered by holiday reunions.
In my view, no relationship need be viewed as devoid of redeeming
qualities and fit only to be discarded. There are usually sound reasons for
maintaining our relationships; in the case of family relationships, we
usually have little choice. To do so it is helpful to adopt an attitude of
acceptance of the good with the bad. We can choose to focus the majority of
our attention on the positive aspects of the relationship. When conflicts
occur we can look upon them as interesting features, or as challenges to be
managed or, in time perhaps, overcome.
Dr. Catalanello is a licensed psychologist in his home
State of Louisiana, USA. He is a member of the Faculty of Liberal Arts at
Asian University, Chonburi. Address questions and comments to him at [email protected]
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