COLUMNS
HEADLINES [click on headline to view story]:

Money matters 

Snap Shots  

Modern Medicine  

Learn to Live to Learn  

Heart to Heart with Hillary  

Psychological Perspectives  

Money matters: The Three ‘R’s - Risk and Reward and Returns (Part 1)

Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.

In the spirit of always trying to find glasses that are half full, this week we’ll look more at how the last month has impacted upon the funds that we recommend rather than picking up on the horror stories that we’ve been telling everyone to avoid.

Our main thrust, the core of our portfolios, remains Miton-Optimal’s multi-asset class actively managed funds. You might recall that these look to allocate to:

Equities
Bonds and fixed interest
Property
Commodities
Cash
Hedge, derivative and alternative funds.

In a sense it’s quite difficult right now for Miton-Optimal because it would appear that markets are facing major inflexion points - the assets that have been going up most strongly of late (tech shares, residential property, the US$) are the ones that are most likely to fall in value and the ones that have been performing poorly (cash, Asian property, gold) are the ones that are most likely to perform well.

The exact jumping off point will be impossible to predict accurately so achieving a reasonably close approximation is about the best that can be hoped for. If you’re holding assets that will perform well in the future and those are the opposite of the assets that are performing well right now, you’re in danger of looking slightly silly immediately prior to the markets hitting their inflexion points (and it should be noted that the inflexion point for each asset class will usually occur at a slightly different time so the overall inflexion period could be spread over several weeks or even months).

Short term then, it should be banana skins for our heroes in South Africa, Guernsey and Reading.

However, the evidence doesn’t really bear that out. For the last month the PSG Global Dynamic Series of funds managed by Miton-Optimal’s Scott Campbell came first yet again out of all the actively managed global portfolios within the S&P database of 15,377 offshore investment funds and portfolios. It’s newer sister series of funds, the Optimal Coreharbour Portfolios came first out of the newer neutral (no preference for any asset class) group of global funds compared by S&P.

Let’s look at what would have happened if $100 had been invested in July 1998 into Scott’s PSG portfolios and into an average performing global investment portfolio:
Today Jul-04 Jul-03 Jul-02 Jul-01 Jul-00 Jul-99
Average 121.47 110.35 96.88 95.29 101.57 123.38 115.3
PSG 157.91 146.82 132.61 126.46 126.92 131.83 120.54

Despite all this we’re the first to point out that good fund managers need to perform all the time, ergo we need to review longer term data also. We’re also keen to point out that return is only one part of the risk/reward equation and that good investment managers achieve distinction in both sides of the equation, indeed that the risk side is in many ways even more important than the return part.

So looking back to the launch of the PSG portfolios which have been around for over 7 years. The more recent Coreharbour portfolios are only around a year old, although they simply represent a development of the older funds. How does Scott now fare? We know that for the 5 years to 2003 and to 2004 Scott’s portfolios achieved the highest returns AND demonstrated the highest levels of risk reward efficiency. However, we’re near the end of 2005, a year that has, so far, most rewarded those managers who are willing to take the greatest risks with their clients’ money. We would not have expected Scott to shine in such unsuitable conditions. Initially looks to be the case.

Over 5 years performance has fallen from 1st to 24th place (over 7 years the fall isn’t quite so bad - to 7th place). Still, the portfolios remain very comfortably in the top quartile of funds over these periods, an extremely creditable achievement, especially as the difference between the very top performing fund and those trailing in its immediate wake are often marginal. In fact this highlights the greater importance of consistency than having the odd stellar year. Looking at significant periods since the launch of the PSG funds over 7 years ago, we can see that over 4, 5 and 7 years the fund has performed within the top quartile of actively managed global portfolios.

What does that actually mean in terms of the pound, dollar or euro in your pocket? (To make life easier we’ll convert all returns to dollars, although we’ll restrict the PSG performance to the euro and sterling funds as the Dollar fund wasn’t launched 7 years ago, otherwise the PSG numbers would look even more outstanding).

Averages of course can hide a great deal of detail. If you had changed funds each year, you might have managed, by some miracle, to choose the best performing fund each year. This is in despite of the fact that although these are global actively managed investment portfolios which are mandated to be able to invest in all asset classes some have ignored that and have taken a very specialist approach to investing only in, for instance, global technology stocks (the top performers in the first of the 2 years above and the worst in the following 2 years) or global property or global bonds - which started out moderately but were the best performers in the post millennium equity market crashes.

Continued next week...

The above data and research was compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For more information please contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]


Snap Shots: Reflectors and absorbers

by Harry Flashman

Remembering that all of photography is really just “painting with light”, this week let’s look at how you can use the available light to your advantage to make better photographs.

To manipulate the available light to your wishes needs two pieces of equipment - called reflectors and absorbers, and neither is difficult to come by, and both cost next to nothing! Yet the difference these can make to your photos is remarkable.

Now a couple of years ago I was given a silver and a gold reflector, very natty, fold away, store easily, carry easily reflectors. These particular ones even come in their own little zip-up bags to keep them warm and dry. They unfold to make a one and a half metre diameter circular reflector. Both are white on one side, but on the other, one is gold and the other is silver. However, they are very simple to make.

But first, why do you need a reflector? If they are so damn good, why aren’t we all rushing around with silver and gold reflectors tucked under our arms? The simple answer is that we get too complacent and we end up saying that the results we get are “good enough”, or we were just taking snapshots anyway. However, if you really want photos that leap off the page, think about reflectors. Really!

The first thing a gold reflector can do for your photographs is to give skin tones that “golden glow” that just makes portraits look that much more pleasing.

So what else does a reflector do for your photographs? Well it allows you to photograph “contre jour” as they say in the classics. That is having the light behind your subject (generally the sun) and then you can throw some reflected light back into the subject’s face. If you do not do this, the usual result is something closer to a silhouette than a portrait – a bright halo around the subject which then becomes so dark in the face that you cannot distinguish the features. But with the reflector, you can push the light back in and pick up the details.

So that was the gold reflector – what about the silver one? Well, if you want “clean” and bright light on a subject anywhere, the silver reflector will do that for you. Use to use this type of reflector when photographing silver jewellery or even motor cars, for example. Mind you, if you are photographing gold jewellery you must use a gold reflector or otherwise the gold necklaces look silver on film.

Now, here’s how you make your own. Get some “foamcore” – that lightweight plastic material that is often used to make signs (any signmakers will have some). Around one meter square is OK. Now go to the newsagents and buy some gold wrapping paper and some silver wrapping paper. Cover one side of the “foamcore” with silver and the other side with the gold paper and you have lightweight, portable (you can fold them in half easily) silver and gold reflectors. And it has cost you less than a couple of hundred baht.

Now “absorbers”. To give your shots some shadow, or even an air of mystery, it is good to manipulate the amount of shadow in your portraits. You do this by placing something on the side of the subject away from the light source, to absorb (and not let light reflect back into the subject) and allow a natural fall-off of light. The best absorber is black velvet. You bring the black velvet absorber as close as you can to the subject, without it coming into the viewfinder. It is that simple.

To make this absorber, use another one meter square sheet of foamcore and cover one side with black velvet material. You pin or clip the material to it and that is it.

You will really be amazed by the way the use of a reflector and absorber can put a different atmosphere into your photographs – especially portraits. Try taking the same shot using different reflectors and note the difference for future use.


Modern Medicine: Are check-ups really worthwhile?

by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant

This may look like a strange concept, but bears thinking about for a moment. Are check-ups really worthwhile? We all have to die one day (even me), and as I often say, despite all the advances in modern medicine, the death rate will always be the same – one per person. So is it better to die in blissful ignorance, or rush upstairs in full knowledge of what got you?

One reason why I ask the question is because many people have the feeling that by having an annual check-up, they have become invincible. Sorry, but annual check-ups do not make you 10 foot tall and bulletproof. You can check out as 100 percent fit today, and die from liver cancer in six months. That is the awful truth.

So let’s look at the whole concept of the annual check-up. What it does is to provide a base-line from which all other measurements can be compared. Obviously, if something is very much out of kilter on that initial check, then it will need to be dealt with, but I am looking at the fit young adult, where everything is 100 percent. Repeated measurements will show trends or movements relative to the 100 percent baseline. If blood sugar is moving steadily upwards, then you can almost predict when the level will become too high and the increasing sugar level becomes the start of Diabetes. Correction of the upward trend early in the history can stop the advent of Diabetes, with all the visual and metabolic problems, even including amputation of limbs. Looking at that scenario makes the annual check-up really good value!

You can use that same logical line of thinking to encompass blood pressure, cholesterol, prostate specific antigen, Pap smears and even liver function tests to see just how well your body is handling the daily alcohol workload. All of these slow moving parameters can give you the time for correction if you have some serial records taken at annual check-ups. The effects of increasing hypertension and high cholesterol are well documented, and longevity is not one of them!

Now there are those people who have had religious annual check-ups, and something happens medically that comes “out of the blue”. Has the check-up been a waste of time/effort/money etc.? The answer is a resounding No! Take for example, an illness that has appeared three months after the annual check-up. Since the problem was not present three months previously, your doctor can say confidently that this is a new or fast growing condition. This can make a huge difference to the treatment. Conservative “wait and see” is probably not indicated. Something faster and more radical will be the way to handle this situation. Sure, the check-up could not ‘predict’ the sudden disease process, but has helped as far as the appropriate treatment is concerned.

While I did point out at the beginning of this item that the death rate will remain the same at one per person, the annual check-up can have a huge bearing on the quality of one’s later life. There is little point in getting to 80 years of age, if the previous 10 years are full of pain and physical restrictions, especially if the conditions producing the pain and restrictions could have been averted by timely intervention monitored by an annual check-up.

Do I think the annual check-up is worthwhile? Yes I do. That is why I have one each year too! And if I have convinced you to have one too, the Bangkok-Pattaya Hospital is having their annual check-up promotion where you can get around about a 50 percent reduction for the cost of the check-up. You have to pay before December 20, and the check-up has to be taken before April 30. Contact the hospital today!


Learn to Live to Learn: My Cup Runneth Over: Metamorphosis

with Andrew Watson

As the poet said: “We live our lives forever taking leave.” As my predecessor George Benedikt wrote; “The world is a tempestuous and uncertain place”. And so it has come to pass, that my time has come, to metamorphose. The unseen reality behind my columns over the past year or so has been a great deal of work, research and travel, always with the critical, compassionate and provocative intent, of stimulating increasingly informed debate on a subject about which I am passionate: education.

The first blue light of dawn turns the sea into glassy indigo.

Of all the mantras which I have shared with the many readers of “Learn to Live to Learn”, in what I know has become part of the regular Friday and weekend dietary ritual of newsprint and discussion, the one which sums my philosophy up best is the title: “Learn to Live to Learn.” I saw it with my own eyes during a visit to the ancient city of Sukothai almost four years ago, where this Buddhist maxim was nailed to a tree. It encapsulated my feelings, especially as I had recently narrowly escaped with my life from the bomb ravaged streets of Jerusalem.

For me, learning has always necessarily been a lifelong process. Perhaps more importantly, committing myself to the belief that we are each other’s students and teachers, has I hope, endowed me with a humility which those too full of the pus of prejudice, might call arrogance. For in the classroom and beyond, I have always encouraged students to question what they are being told, in the certain hope that as a result, they will become people of initiative, independence, instinct, intuition, intelligence and compassion. It is as if I end all my sentences with the phrase, “Of course, I could be wrong!” (Hazell, 2005)

Yet there is more still. At the centre of my world I keep something more valuable than any quantity of cash. Long ago, I invested in the currency of unconditional love and I must tell you, that this investment has reaped rich dividends. So much so, that with the birth of each new morning, I arise with the dawn, and as the first blue light turns the sea into glassy indigo, I am filled with a feeling of great joy and a sense of immense fortune. My cup runneth over. Suddenly I understand many things, such as how people’s experience and education is only limited by themselves and how perversely, how many seem bent on a narrow parochial path which they choose because of a mistaken belief that it provides the safest, most trouble free route to the grave (after all, death is the one certainty of life).

Whereas, in reality, nowhere is safe, least of all a place where we subjugate a sense of social justice for personal gain. Or a place where the greatest love of all, where one man lays down his life for another, becomes a mythical concept. Or a place where Bertrand Russell’s provocative proposal, “Most men would rather die, than think,” becomes the daily and continuing reality of a long journey to obscurity, via mediocrity, from which there is no return. And on the road to purgatory, men and women will wantonly cast ideals aside. Morals become yesterday’s garbage to throw out, ethics an ancient word with no meaning, justice a joke to laugh at whilst we swim in streams of alcohol. Ignorance, greed, hatred and jealousy, become the false idols, shopping malls the new temples. Bibles, Torahs and Korans are bookends, the lessons of history condemned to minor roles in a tragic play.

So we make the same mistakes again, like stupid oxen. And then we have the audacity to watch surprised, as acts of biblical inhumanity are perpetrated around the globe. In our shelter on the other side of the world, we claim, “It’s nothing to do with us”. But nothing could be further from the truth. Sages, Shamans, Gurus, learned men, Poets, Scientists, Artists, Great leaders of vision across time, have all recognised the same undying truism. And so do the “Good Books”. All things are one.

We are all part of the same family of common humanity, and recognising and accepting this simple fact is an emancipating and enlightening thing. We are freed from “mental slavery” (Marley, 1982). The next step is doing something about it. On a daily basis. Nobody ever said this was easy, but if I want a better future for my children and students, personally I don’t think I have an option. And I cannot ask a student to do something I’m not prepared to do myself, whether it’s picking up the litter in the yard, or standing up to bullies.

Nevertheless, demonstrating courage, resilience, integrity, strength and honour and (of course) judgment, in taking on the devil of grotesque iniquity, can induce a price which many tire of paying. As Jesus Christ, Mandela, Martin Luther King, Ghandi, amongst many others have discovered, the path of righteousness can be a very lonely one.

And so it has come to pass, that with students reading and using this column on a weekly basis as part of their studies in at least ten schools (that I know of) spanning five continents (a source of great pride, if you don’t mind) and a burgeoning and increasingly appreciative audience locally and regionally, I must metamorphose. From writing, to talking (perhaps I’m verbose in both?).

My television talk show, “Perspectives” seems to be a great success, for which I must thank the whole team, especially Paul Strachan. Such a success, in fact, that I am spending more and more time away from my family. And this I cannot allow. So at least for the time being, I will be unable to add to “Learn to Live to Learn”.

Nonetheless, I do have some excellent news for fans of the column. All the “Learn to Live to Learn” columns that have ever been written, are to be turned into a book of the same name, with contextual additions explaining what it was that was going on locally, regionally and globally, (or indeed in my mind!) to sire that week’s (arguably sententious) progeny. The book should be published in about six month’s time, with proceeds going to a charity of my choice. Look in the Pattaya Mail for news of its progress! Free copies will go to all educational institutions in the region and I hope that its contents will provide some humorous and informative material, not least to those funding their own post graduate educational programmes. Now, I know this hiatus is disappointing news for many, if not all of you. However, I cannot imagine staying away for long, so be ready to welcome me back, sooner or later!

Before closing this chapter, I must thank just some of the extraordinary people, whose advice, strength, support and loyalty, has made them stand out like stars on a dark night. This, by the way, is a list: James & Anita Abraham, Nick Hazell, Julian Milward, June Van den Bos, Sally Holloway, Patti & Shannon McMullen, Peter & Ning, Christine & Malcolm, Chris Watson, David Moriarty, Peter Shmelwyn, Richard Callard, Martin Cook, Luib Feeley, Dr. Virachai, Ron Shultz, Chris Wright, David Lowder, Ben & Simon Coulson, Wendy & Tim, Kat & Craig Rosier, Gareth Sutcliffe, Nalini, May Lee, Ian Clubb, ‘Puto’ de Glossop, Micha Mirzoev, Suhas Bhat, Ben Shield, Nick Frost, Greg Miller, David & Stella McCracken, Helen Fail, Nigel Forbes-Harper, Jim, Christine, Sharona, Shamayim & Blue Watson. Most of all, thank you to Peter Malhotra and Dan, my benefactor and editor, respectively.

Another evening has melted away. I have watched the sky move effortlessly from turquoise to fuchsia over an acquiescent ocean. As for the text, the body is gone. Now only the spirit remains. So until next time, “Shalom”.

[email protected]


Heart to Heart with Hillary

Dear Hillary,
In Chiang Mai I recently met a Thai woman, Dong, and we’ve been going out nearly every night. Dong is not a bar girl, we met in a restaurant, and were introduced. I mentioned my thrilling new relationship to a married farang woman friend, who wrote the following, “Please don’t use the word love. It’s like each of you is living out a fantasy you’ve fallen into (I am big and strong, I’m #1, I’m important to this gorgeous woman, my masculinity is overpowering, no one else except this lovely has ever understood me before, etc.) and Dong is saying “If I add his payment to the other four I am receiving, I can buy the new moped I’m looking at. I will eat good tonight. Let’s see, he leaves in two weeks, and then Horst comes in on the following Thursday.” And all the while you are smiling from ear to ear, and why not? Thai women are taught to serve men, and would be doing that anyway, to a Thai man, but not reaping the financial benefits of the farang man. So why not work smarter?”
I know no one more cynical than you, Hillary, but don’t you think this is just over the top? I mean, I think we’re talking true love here.
Found true love

Dear found true love,
You have me a little confused here. You assert in the first paragraph that the wonderful Dong is not a bar girl because you met in a restaurant. So what is she? A restaurant girl? Bar girls do eat, my Petal. You also say you have been going out nearly every night. For how long? One week? One month? One year? It is fine and natural to fall rapturously in love with someone, but do not expect that everyone else will be as enamored of the relationship as you are. Your married friend is just trying to stop you breaking your heart in a whirlwind romance. Keep your eyes open and your wallet closed.
Dear Hillary,
Wise old owl that your are, can you please advise me on an important partnership problem? My beautiful 21 year old Thai concubine is perfect in many ways and behaves generally like ladies should and gentlemen expect. For example, she doesn’t bend my ear with unnecessary female type senseless chatter and only speaks when spoken to, has learned how to make gin and tonic just as I like it, waits on me hand and foot, keeps the house spotless and the one rai garden in good order, twice weekly washes cleans and polishes the car to showroom condition, carries my beer cans when we go for a walk, clips my toe and finger nails and cuts my hair to perfection, is a cordon bleu chef in the kitchen and a slut in bed, knows better than to ask for extra money and accounts in writing for every satang she spends when shopping. In return she enjoys a generous allowance of 1,000 baht a month (out of which I deduct a mere 600 for board and lodging), I allow her to eat at table with me, take her out once a fortnight when we go Dutch, rarely swear at her and hardly ever beat her - then only when in my cups. A good, healthy, well balanced, two way relationship you would think.
But no, she has a couple of really bad habits I cannot cure. She NEVER leaves the toilet seat up ready for me to use and she will insist on squeezing the toothpaste tube in the middle and not at the far end from the cap. I find both of these insubordinate actions unbearable, so should I replace her with a lucky someone who is more amenable, or make her use the bathroom in the unoccupied maids quarters? I’m a modern man who believes in equality between the sexes, so do you think she is taking advantage of my generous and easy going nature? The age difference is negligible because I am just 62 and not inexperienced with women as I have been married and, for inexplicable reasons, divorced five times, but this lady has got me puzzled as I have never had to deal with such serious matters before. I am diplomatic in my ways and would never dream of causing offence.
I know you would dearly love to replace her, but please save us both embarrassment by not applying. I’m not into chocolate guzzling, champagne swilling, over-weight, aging and wrinkly farang women.
The Perfect English Gentleman

Dear Perfect English Gentleman,
A veritable paragon of virtue and joie de vivre, aren’t you? I can’t imagine why your concubine would want to leave, but then, she probably hasn’t got the keys to the leg irons, so wouldn’t get far anyway. I think you are being just a trifle ‘picky’ over the toilet seat, Petal. She’s leaving it down so that you can sit for a happy poo or two. (Men do sit for Number 2’s, I’ve been told.) As far as the toothpaste transgressions, I cannot countenance this either. The answer here is to make her buy her own tubes. Do not allow your toothpaste tube to become communal! Thank you for hinting that perhaps I might like to join you (I can tell you’re interested), but us wise old owls never nest with cantankerous buzzards like you!


Psychological Perspectives: Prevalence of domestic violence in Thai society is underscored by two studies

by Michael Catalanello, Ph.D.

Domestic violence is a very serious, yet hidden problem in Thailand, according to two recently concluded studies.

A report issued in November by the World Health Organization (WHO) and another last week by the Thai Public Health Ministry document the persistent pattern and toll of physical and sexual violence against local women and children by husbands, partners, family members and others.

Officials from the WHO interviewed 1536 women between the ages of 15 and 49 in Bangkok and 1282 in Nakhon Sawan. Forty one percent of women surveyed in Bangkok who had ever had partners and 47% in Nakhon Sawan reported episodes of physical or sexual violence by an intimate partner.

Intimate partners are by no means the only perpetrators of violence against women. Eight to 10% of respondents reported physical violence occurring since the age of 15 years by someone other than a partner. Relatives of the victim were most commonly identified as perpetrators of physical violence. Six percent of women surveyed in Bangkok, and 3% in Nakhon Sawan reported experiencing sexual violence since the age of 15 years by a non-partner, according to the WHO report.

An alarming number of women report having been forced into their first sexual experience as a minor. Nine percent of those surveyed in Bangkok and 5% in Nakhon Sawan reported such an experience before the age of 15. In Bangkok, strangers were the attackers 58% of the time, compared to 30% in Nakhon Sawan.

A minority of abused women reported episodes of domestic violence to authorities, such as health, law enforcement, religious, or local officials: 20% in Bangkok and 10% Nakhon Sawan.

In a report issued last week, the Thai Ministry of Public Health documented a total of 10,241 reported cases of domestic violence or harassment during the first ten months of 2005. This represents a five-fold increase in reports since 2002. A third of the perpetrators of those incidents were family members of the victim, including husbands and fathers.

A total of 4% of women in both provinces who had ever been pregnant had experienced physical violence during a pregnancy. Being punched or kicked in the abdomen during pregnancy accounted for about a third of the attacks. The perpetrator was almost always the father of the child.

Domestic violence is a complex issue, and causes are difficult to nail down with certainty; however, experts suggest that certain social factors may play a role in promoting this activity. For example, gender inequality is often viewed as an important factor. Women are universally assigned an inferior role within societies, and this is particularly evident in Thai culture. Men who view themselves as superior to women might use violence as a means of asserting their authority over women. There are, likewise, powerful social and economic pressures upon women to be accepting of male domination.

Relatively few women attempt to overcome the effects of gender inequality by utilizing public institutions like law enforcement. Those who do, however, often encounter other obstacles. These obstacles are in the form of negative attitudes of police toward victims of domestic violence. Those reporting abuse sometimes experience further humiliation by authorities who appear to hold the view that domestic violence in a private affair.

Some legal experts suggest that victims of domestic violence who pursue remedies in the courts also encounter inequalities in the legal system. For example, according to some, marital rape could be considered a legal practice because of ambiguities in Thai law. Even if perpetrators are successfully prosecuted, other problems may arise, such as when victims of domestic abuse are economically dependent upon the perpetrator for support.

The WHO report recommends a number of steps aimed at changing the attitudes and cultural norms that permit domestic abuse to flourish. Psychological interventions designed around principles of anger management are often used effectively with perpetrators of domestic violence. Violence prevention, HIV/AIDS, and sex education programs aimed at children and youth are recommended. Health care and related medical service providers need skills and training to learn to identify victims of domestic violence and provide effective intervention. The general public also needs to develop greater awareness and sensitivity to the problem of domestic violence.

According to Dr. Claudia Garcia Moreno, WHO Study Coordinator, governments and communities need to mobilize to combat domestic violence. “WHO will continue to raise awareness about violence and the important role that public health can play to address its causes and consequences,” she said. “Globally, we need to stop the violence from happening in the first place, and to provide help and support to women who are in abusive relationships.”

Dr. Catalanello is a licensed psychologist in his home State of Louisiana, USA, and a member of the Faculty of Liberal Arts at Asian University, Chonburi. You may address questions and comments to him at [email protected], or post on his weblog at http://asianupsych.blogspot.com