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Money matters: Early winter is here (Part
2)
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
Last week we looked at the fact that the US government
is borrowing over US$ 2 Bn every day, why they’re doing this and why
ultimately this isn’t sustainable. Let’s look at this again in more
detail to dispel some myths and establish what we actually know and what
is merely conjecture.
The amount of government deficit is well in excess of 5% and rapidly
approaching 6% of GDP. This sets off many alarm bells since many
analysts see 6% as a trigger point at which a financial dislocation
(recession, stock market collapse, currency crash) is inevitable. This
is supported by Caroline Freund’s Federal Reserve System International
Finance Discussion paper #692 published 5 years ago which equated this
6% threshold to the US swallowing 70 – 80% off all world’s savings in
order to continue to fund inflows which have now exceeded 2$ billion
dollar per day.
Some 4 years ago, Dr. Lawrence Lindsey, a former White House Economic
Advisor, warned “I do think it is important that we all keep this in
mind: we have had 20 years of expansion - 18 actually, going on 19. And
it has been an extraordinary period. But that does not mean that
everything is AOK ... it is unlikely that we could forever borrow 4% of
GDP from the rest of the world. Or more precisely if you look at trends,
we are borrowing increasing amounts from the rest of the world. Imagine
going to your banker and saying, ‘We thank you very much for the $280
(billion) you lent us in 1999, and the $400 (billion) you lent us in
2000, and it looks like this year it is going to come in about $520
(billion). We are going to need $650 (billion) in additional cash in
’02, probably $800 (billion) in ’03.’ Getting the picture? This is
otherwise known as ‘evergreen’ financing. And it won’t work. At some
point, it is going to have to be adjusted.” (Back then it was only 4%
but Lindsey could see that the Bush administration policies were
determined to keep increasing the borrowing requirement).
This view is supported by former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, who says:
“Below the favourable surface, there are as dangerous and intractable
circumstances as I can remember. We are consuming… about six percent
more than we are producing. What holds the world together is a massive
flow of capital from abroad… it’s what feeds our consumption binge...
the United States economy is growing on the savings of the poor… A big
adjustment will inevitably become necessary, long before the social
security surpluses disappear and the deficit explodes... We are skating
on increasingly thin ice.”
The closest economic advisor of Australian Treasurer, Peter Costello,
fears that the US is heading for a devastating financial crash which
would involve a sharp fall in the US dollar and a bond and equity market
sell off.
A dissenting Federal Reserve System International Finance Discussion
Paper Number 827 penned by Hilary Croke, Steven B. Kamin and Sylvain
Leduc has suggested that such a level of deficit in the US wouldn’t
necessarily cause a major dislocation by looking at the working out if
current account adjustments in countries such as Ireland, Greece,
Belgium, Portugal, New Zealand, Austria, Norway and Spain.
We have produced a critique of this paper which is available upon
request and in fact we asked the authors why their study apparently
failed to apply any real critical qualitative criteria to the
comparators chosen (i.e. why they could present a Greek national debt of
15 years ago as being comparable with that in the US today). If nothing
else, we couldn’t understand why the obvious parallel of USA 1929 hadn’t
been considered.
On behalf of the joint authors Steve Kamin replied: “Aside from focusing
on industrial economies (and thus excluding developing economies), we
applied no further criteria to our selection of economies. The reason
for this, simply, is that it was not obvious what further criteria
should be applied. We focused on episodes since 1980 primarily because
of data availability, but also because, arguably, with the increasing
integration of international product and financial markets, the more
recent experience of adjustment episodes might have more relevance to
the future than earlier episodes.”
In other words, they’re guessing, assuming, and working at the level of
the immediately obvious. To us, this seems seriously flawed. Armed with
this flawed research Alan Greenspan told a European bankers conference
in Frankfurt that, “Current account deficits, even large ones, have been
defused without significant consequences, (but) we cannot become
complacent.”
When you see all this, the question has to be asked about American
policy, how on earth can you rely on a Gaelic Greco-Iberian financial
model for American and global economic salvation?
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The above data and research was compiled from sources believed to be
reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its officers can accept
any liability for any errors or omissions in the above article nor bear any
responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any actions taken or not
taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For more information please
contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]
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Snap Shots: Give yourself a theme – and improve on it!
by Harry Flashman
 There
is so much more to photography than just taking photographs of
relatives, loved ones and where you went for your holidays, and if you
want to improve your photography, there is no better way than giving
yourself a photo project. Simply, an exercise for the mind becomes an
exercise in photographic technique.
When you think about it, this is how the professional photojournalists
work. National Geographic (or even this newspaper!) tells their
photographers to go out and cover the opening of a restaurant, the
closing of an airport or a day in the life of the Amazonian frogs.
However, in your case, the best thing about your self-directed projects
is that you get to choose the subject, so you do not need to go to South
America!
Actually, this is one of the reasons Harry Flashman became a
professional photographer. I gave myself the task of illustrating a
“book” as if I had been given the assignment. As I worked on it, I could
see the photographic techniques I had to master, and the “book” became
more of a self-teaching exercise for young photographers. In fact it was
one shot from that exercise resulted in the first commercial contract.
It was the start of a new career, so your own photo project could be the
start of your new career.
Of course, you don’t need to be setting out on a new career path, you
can do this exercise at any time in your life, and what better time to
start than at the start of 2006? So what should you choose as the
subject of this project? As they say in Thailand, “Up to you!” However,
here are a few ideas. I have a personal one which is a photo-record of
the buses in Thailand. Since this country is the ‘Bus capital of the
universe’ (my working title), I have been photographing the wonderfully
colorful busses. Size becomes the technical difficulty, because it can
be difficult to get far enough away from a bus to be able to get it all
in the frame, and then you are too far away to see the details. So to
record one bus, you need an overall shot, and then close-ups, but to
include parts of the bus each time, to show that this art work really
was on the side of a bus.
One of my photographic friends, Ernie Kuehnelt, who is more at the
retiral end of life than at the beginning so he doesn’t need a new
career, came up with his own project a couple of years ago – he is
photographing people on motorcycles. You know the sort of things –
families of five on one motorbike, little kids hanging onto the rear
view mirrors, girls riding side saddle, small fluffy dogs in the carrier
in the front, motorcycle taxi riders popping pimples in the rear vision
mirror. This project is endless and I’m sure Ernie doesn’t mind if you
try to illustrate this one yourself.
After starting his project he realized he was not getting close enough
to the action, so decided to use a telephoto lens and see what results
he gets from that. He had already found he needed to get a reasonably
high vantage point, or the motorcycles got lost in the sea of motor
cars. As I said at the beginning of this article, “an exercise for the
mind becomes an exercise in photographic technique” and you will soon
appreciate this.
An important part of this exercise is to pick a theme that appeals to
you, not trying to work out what kind of shots you want to take. So if
your great passion in life is Japanese food, then start there and eat
your way through your project! Once you have the project, the excitement
of actually bringing it to life will spur you on to greater
understanding, and incidentally, greater pictures!
Modern Medicine: When bleeding can be
a real pain in the bottom
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
Bleeding from any orifice should not be taken lightly. It is
not normal to cough up blood, spit up blood, bleed from the nose or ear
canal, or bleed from the anus. It means ‘something’ is wrong. Generally the
‘something’ is minor, but it may be the symptoms of an invading cancer.
This is why the specific cause of any rectal bleeding must be identified so
appropriate treatment can be started and the problem corrected. Even though
most cases of rectal bleeding are not serious, you should never ignore this
warning symptom, no matter how embarrassed you may be about showing your
bottom to the doctor!
There are many causes of rectal bleeding. One of the most common is
Hemorrhoids. These are dilated blood vessels in the anal or rectal area.
Think of them as varicose veins, similar to those you can get in the legs.
They can occur on the outside where they are felt as small grapes when
wiping, but internally they are generally painless, and you do not know they
are there until one bursts and you bleed.
Another cause is a Fistula. This is an abnormal, burrowing channel that
usually runs from the rectum to the skin around the anus. While it is
usually just a local problem, a fistula can be associated with chronic
inflammation in other parts of the intestinal tract such as Crohn’s disease.
Fissures are tears of the anal lining. Nerve endings and blood vessels are
exposed so that pain and bleeding may occur with bowel movements.
Diverticulosis (comes from the Latin ‘diverticulum’ which is translated as a
wayside inn of ill repute). Pockets or sacs (called diverticulae) project
from the bowel wall and occasionally they can bleed. Other conditions such
as Proctitis and Colitis can produce bleeding from inflamed ulcerated
tissues.
The big worry is Polyps and Cancer, as they do not produce symptoms in the
early stages. Polyps are growths in the colon, and when they enlarge, they
can bleed. Some polyps can also turn into cancer and the ulceration of the
polyp produces bleeding as well.
Rectal Prolapse. This is more common in older people, who have weakened
rectal support tissues. Part of the rectum then can project from the anus
and bleed. It can be felt as an abnormal bulging from the rectum when wiping
and needs surgery.
With so many probable causes, how do we make the diagnosis? The simple
answer is by history and examination, which is not only visual. The old
adage is “If you don’t put your finger in it, you will put your foot in it”
(also used regarding prostate examinations).
We will need to know if blood drips into the toilet after a bowel movement.
Bleeding hemorrhoids may be the problem. The color and frequency of the
bleeding are additional considerations. In most cases, the medical history
provides diagnostic clues, but never the final answer.
Inspection (visually and digitally) of the anal area will reveal tears and
hemorrhoids. The DRE (Digital Rectal Examination) can provide information
when there is tenderness or a locally growing tumor inside the rectum.
To look further up the anal canal to check for bleeding, a Sigmoidoscope may
be used, but to get even further up inside the colon, a Colonoscope will be
required.
Other procedures can include a Barium Enema X-ray where liquid barium is
inserted by enema into the rectum. This can highlight abnormal shadows, such
as tumors, diverticulae and colitis.
So while the causes may be several, the treatment for most is not major.
However, as I mentioned at the beginning of this week’s article, bleeding,
from any orifice, should not be ignored.
 Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hills,
(Sorry for sounding so ‘familiar’ but that’s the effect you have on most of
us readers, Petal)
Though it’s kind of refreshing to read that David (Sat, 24th Dec) hasn’t
adopted the, all too familiar, down-trodden, condemned man, jaded mindset of
so many Farang-in-Thailand (yet, at least), I have to confess that his
opinion seems somewhat naive. Before I continue, I’d like to wish him good
luck in all he does and I really hope his future experiences don’t lead him
to change his views on Thai people.
For my part, I guess I’m in between somewhere. I’ve had good and bad
experiences here (the good out-weighing the bad). I’m neither jaded by’, nor
patriotic of’ these people. Like he said, “there’s good and bad everywhere”.
I’m not old (36), not big-bellied (though working on it) but, I am bald! (By
choice, you understand – something to do with excessive U-turns beneath the
sheets.)
David mentioned that the key to living a good life out here was finding the
right woman … Dear-oh-dear, if one puts so much onus on that, surely one’s
mental state could be severely disturbed if the relationship doesn’t work
out. Moreover, I believe that one should like being here for much more than
‘a girl/woman’! Sadly, it sounds like David has ‘reacted’ to
stories/comments he’s heard, and very obviously has taken it all personally.
What I can’t figure out, is where has he experienced such condemnation for
Thai girls? Boom-boom bars?? Teacher’s library??? The hotel lobby???? For
the way he should really react, is to question these individuals as to where
they generally look for their future girlfriend/wife? This can usually
explain the haphazard/un-advantageous origins that lead to a certain
person’s disappointment/heart-break. David, David, David … In my experience,
those young, good-looking Farang (or otherwise) that seem so ‘Pro-Thai’ at
first, usually end up being the most jaded of all. Invest as much as you
wish into others but always have a reserve for yourself. Who knows what the
future holds, “same as in Europe”.
My last point: “act as you do in your homeland”. I’ve been preaching the
opposite for years now. I’d hate to see these people corrupted to the extent
that we are. David, this is not Europe! These people are not Europeans and
they never will be. The message should read “acquaint yourself with the
different customs/culture of other Nations”. I’ve often wondered why
heavily-cultured countries don’t have some form of information leaflet for
foreigners, on arrival. Just a little intro on dos and don’ts….The mind
boggles!
I can’t promise you chocolates, Hills, as I’ve a fondness of them myself,
but feel free to ask for my comments on future articles.
Chiang Mai Scooby
Dear Scooby-Doo,
How wonderful it is to be 36 and have the answers to all the world’s ills
(not Hills). But how traumatic it must be when people don’t listen, or give
a damn, and run headlong into the mire, yet again. I am, however, also very
worried about your tonsorial problem. Perhaps if you got the laundry to use
a double shot of softener in the final rinse, that might help take the
roughness out of the sheets. Or perhaps change them more often? I don’t know
that I can agree with your final paragraph, Petal. My experiences are that
many Europeans forget their Euro-style manners and turn into bellicose
boors, and believe that money buys everything in this country. It may buy
some (doubtful) companionship, but it certainly doesn’t buy a life’s partner
(unless you are having a short life). As far as acquainting themselves by
reading leaflets, that’s not necessary. Just keep reading my column!
Dear Hillary,
I have a really terrible problem and it seems to be getting worse every day.
When I go outside of my room I keep meeting people wearing t-shirts with Von
Dutch on it, in a funny writing style. Then I began to notice that everyone
has one these days. Women have handbags with it written on it as well.
Everywhere I go it’s Von Dutch. First I don’t know what it means, and second
I don’t have one piece of clothes with it written on it. What should I do
Hillary? Go and buy one at the Von Dutch store (but I don’t know where that
is), buy a copy, or stay indoors until this fad is over?
Von Not-Dutch
Dear Von Not Dutch,
You certainly have got a problem, my Petal. How could you even possibly
think of going outside without a Von Dutch T-shirt? Goodness me, I put on my
Von Dutch dress, Von Dutch sunglasses, Von Dutch scarf and Von Dutch shoes
before going into the lounge room after I have my bath in the morning, let
alone going shopping outside the house! In fact, to admit you haven’t got
one Von Dutch item of apparel is almost as bad as telling people that you
have leprosy or some other nasty diseases. So please trot down to the copy
T-shirt shop and get yourself a Von Dutch straight away. You might be able
to trade in last year’s Tommy Tommy Hilfiger on it. (I still think it was
very mean of his parents to give him a middle name the same as his first
name, but then I have never really understood Americans.)
Psychological Perspectives: Establishing norms of privacy in an era of surveillance technology: A role for psychologists
by Michael Catalanello,
Ph.D.
One morning a couple of years ago my
family and I awoke to the shocking realization that intruders had broken
into our home and entered the very rooms where we lay asleep.
Although we lost several items of significant material and sentimental
value in the burglary, I believe the most disturbing aspect of the crime
was the feeling that my family and I had been violated, that we had
suffered a loss of privacy and security. It would be months before we
would again begin to feel safe and secure within our own home.
People generally place great value on privacy. It is one of those
commodities we tend to take for granted. Who among us wants strangers
snooping through our private belongings, reading our correspondence,
listening in on our phone calls, watching us, intruding upon our
personal life? We Americans, however, recently learned that our
government is engaged in just that sort of snooping.
Americans, it seems, are a very forgiving people, at least with regard
to the errant behavior of our president. The limits of our willingness
to forgive and forget, however, appear to have been severely tested by
recent revelations of electronic eavesdropping on American citizens,
authorized by President Bush in 2002, and without the legal safeguards
established to monitor and control such intrusions. Out of the array of
issues facing the Bush presidency, it is interesting that the issue of
privacy would finally be the one that produces a broad bipartisan public
outcry and demands for the investigation and reigning in of presidential
powers.
The Fourth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution was established to protect
the people of our country from unreasonable searches. Searches are
generally considered reasonable only if they are conducted pursuant to a
warrant which has been issued by a court based upon probable cause. If
an activity is not a search, it is not governed by the Fourth Amendment.
Thus, the question of what constitutes a search becomes very important.
Originally the word “search” was considered to necessarily involve a
physical intrusion into some place. It eventually became apparent that
emerging technologies like telephone “bugs” provided means of conducting
surveillance that did not necessarily involve a physical intrusion.
In a 1967 decision, the U.S. Supreme Court held that what an individual
“seeks to preserve as private” is to be afforded constitutional
protection, regardless of whether a physical intrusion is involved. In
the words of the court, the Fourth Amendment “protects people, not
places.” In order to be protected, the individual must 1) have an
expectation of privacy, and 2) this expectation must be considered
reasonable by society.
This determination by the Court has raised questions for psychologists
to address: What do individuals seek to preserve as private, and what
privacy expectations does society consider to be reasonable?
Psychologists have identified some of the variables that influence
people’s perceptions of the degree of intrusiveness of surveillance
activities. For example, Dorothy Kagehiro and Ralph Taylor reported that
undergraduates tended to view searches of their own property as more
intrusive than searches of others’ property. Furthermore, roving,
searches in the absence of suspicion were deemed more intrusive than
searches directed toward acquiring specified evidence.
Some have theorized that people tend to view the intrusiveness of
surveillance activities as a function of the strength of the presumption
of guilt. For example, in a case where a suspect is handcuffed and
detained, the presumption of guilt is high, and searches would be
considered less intrusive. When a search relates to a serious crime, and
when the motives of law enforcement officials are judged to be
protective, the theory would predict a tendency to view the search as
less intrusive.
In general, psychological research has agreed with Supreme Court
decisions concerning the degree of perceived intrusiveness of various
search activities. In some cases, however, research has revealed social
sensitivities in areas not yet protected by the Court. For example, the
public seems to view drug testing by employers, and activities by
undercover agents and dogs as highly intrusive. Nevertheless, the Court
has yet to establish a substantial privacy issue pertaining to such
tactics.
Psychological research will, no doubt, continue to explore factors that
influence people’s notions of privacy and the perception of
intrusiveness by law enforcement officials. For example, to what extent
do the nature of the measures used influence their perceived
intrusiveness by the public? Does the nature of the place being searched
make a difference? Does the degree of physical intrusion have an effect
upon the public’s perception? How do privacy expectations change in
response to advances in surveillance technologies? Questions like these
are well suited to psychological investigation.
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Dr. Catalanello is a licensed psychologist in his home State of Louisiana, USA, and a member of the Faculty of Liberal Arts at Asian University,
Chonburi. You may address questions and comments to him at [email protected], or post on his weblog at
http://asianupsych.blogspot.com
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A Female Perspective: Gallantry
with Sharona Watson
I
know that there are plenty of women whom when a man opens the door for them,
they think, “Excuse me, I can open the door for myself, thank you very
much!” They take it as a patronising gesture, which puts them down. As for
me, I like it. I like it because it shows that the man is thinking about me,
not about himself. It shows a generous spirit.
Now, some friends of mine think that men only ever do something nice towards
a woman because they want something and men being men, it’s usually one
thing in particular they want. But you can see whether they are really
genuine about what they are doing by watching whether they are always
gallant, or if they just seem to think about the woman at certain times, on
certain days, when they are really thinking about a certain part of their
anatomy. Where do men keep their brains, I sometimes wonder?
Anyway, whilst they are thinking about something else, in the meantime, us
women get to receive the gallant acts anyway and let me tell you something:
when you give something to someone, you should not expect something in
return. A true act of gallantry is one that does not need to be repaid. It
is like a gift. On the other hand, it is likely to produce shall we say, a
‘favourable response’ if it carries on for a long time. And that’s the true
test. Whether or not it carries on, and on, and on. It shouldn’t have to
end.
When I first met my husband, he was a gallant man, or boy, actually. I met
him when I was fifteen and he was seventeen. It was very romantic. He was
very chivalrous. He didn’t have any money but it didn’t matter (some things
never change). He was in love, which made being gallant easier, I suppose,
but I remember looking at the way he treated other people, especially other
girls, just to test whether he was a nice person, or just being nice to me.
Well, I suppose the answer is that I was satisfied. So in return to his acts
of gallantry I was always very sweet towards him. Now, I won’t tell our
whole story now, because it would take too long, so let’s fast forward to
the present day and think about how things have changed.
Well, firstly we are older, which should mean we know better, right? But
this doesn’t always seem to be the case. I think we have become so used to
being with each other that sometimes we take each other for granted. This is
why I think it is important that my husband carries on being gallant, no
matter how small the gesture. It means he is not taking me for granted.
For my part, I try to carry on showing ‘sweetness’ and not to become a
nagger, or an “old bag” as Andy has sometimes, to his cost, called me.
Sometimes, I cannot believe that we seem to be making the same mistakes over
and over again. Our circumstances have changed. We are parents, we are
working, we have these things called ‘responsibilities’ to our children. We
are tired. Time seems to slip between our fingers. So it’s important
sometimes to slow down, to look around you and remember what you have and
where it came from. Every act of gallantry does this.
Of course, we often seem to have different ideas of what being ‘gallant’
means. Andy comes from a family of four boys, five if you include his
father. I am one of four girls. So what do you notice about a house that has
five boys in it? Well, generally it’s a mess and then there’s something very
obvious - the toilet seat is always up. It may sound like a ridiculous
thing, but you can tell a lot about a man by whether he puts the toilet seat
down again when he has finished his business! If he puts it down, even in a
house dominated by men, it shows he is being considerate. If he leaves it
up, it shows that he either has not thought about it, or he just doesn’t
care.
Having said that, I did have one argument with a male friend who objected to
being expected to put the toilet seat down. He said that if women wanted
equality, then they could put the seat down themselves. But it’s not about
equality, it’s about respect, consideration, giving.
Here is a small example. The other day I went with a friend and her partner
to pick up a take-away. The partner (the man) was driving. My friend and I
decided that we wanted to pick up food from about five different places.
Back and forth we went, sometimes visiting the same place more than once
because we had thought of something else we wanted. There wasn’t a negative
word to be heard from the guy driving. I thought this was absolutely
wonderful and when I pointed this out to my friend she said that he was
always very obliging. Now that was gentlemanly behaviour for you.
Sometimes Andy complains that I don’t notice his gallant acts, like when (on
the very rare nights when it’s cold in Thailand) he gets up in the night to
put the duvet cover on me, or when I wake up and there’s a cup of coffee by
my bed. Or when he used to bring me flowers every Friday, like clockwork.
Actually, I complained about that - said it wasn’t spontaneous, which was a
mistake. Once he secretly booked flights for my sisters to come to the UK
and to Thailand. You see, I do remember. I do notice. But I suppose as a
woman, I should understand that it’s important for the man to show him that
you notice, to show him that you love him for it. Andy says that his New
Years’ resolution is to ‘show more gallantry’. Well he started off well; I
just hope he continues to open the door for me. You need to keep the flame
burning!
Next week: Women Drivers
[email protected]
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