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Money matters: Investing closer to home (Part 1)
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
Having looked at equity markets on the other side of
the world, let’s now move closer to home. In fact, today let’s see what
exactly is on our own doorstep. Scott Campbell wrote a very positive piece
on Thailand’s equity markets almost 3 years ago, saying that he believed
that Thailand was about to start an upward trend. This view prevailed for
a just over a couple of years but over the last 9 months or so,
international investors have been increasingly negative about the SET.
At a recent function in Bangkok the governor of the Bank of Thailand, M.R.
Pridiyathorn Devakula, gave his views on what has happened over the last
twelve months and what he envisages will occur over the next year or so.
At the end of last year the Thai economy suffered a number of adverse
events, most notably resulting in a healthy current account surplus
turning sharply negative. The events in question were:
1. Persistently higher world oil prices
2. Prolonged drought
3. Tsunami and unrest in the South
4. Downturn of the global electronics cycle and export demand
High oil prices alone have had far-reaching effects - causing imports to
accelerate, the current account to deteriorate and manufacturing
production to slow down. M.R. Pridiyathorn Devakula focused on the
Sectoral Decomposition of the current account deterioration - i.e., when
you look in detail at the US$ 9 billion decline from a surplus of 2.8
billion USD in H1 - 04 to a deficit of -6.2 billion USD in H1 - 05, this
was made up by Crude Oil (-4.0 Billion), Iron and Steel (-2.0 Billion),
Gold (-0.4 Billion), Tourism (-0.5 Billion) and Other Factors (-2.1
Billion).
Inflation has also picked up during the past six months. Drought causes
crop production to fall and this was evidenced in H1 - 05. Tourism
revenues were hurt by the tsunami and also by Southern unrest. Due to the
onset of the global economic slowdown, exports moderated, especially in
the electronics sector.
However, M.R. Pridiyathorn Devakula highlighted some reasons why investors
might feel cautiously positive:
- Improved health of the banking sector (as evidenced by lower NPL ratio,
improved profitability of the banking sector and bank credit growth) could
now support growth.
- Compared to the past, the economy is showing much greater resilience to
negative shocks. The corporate sector looks relatively healthy. The
external position looks strong with healthy reserves and lower short-term
debt. Also, the public sector is clearly committed to supporting growth,
exchange has remained stable and growth could be driven by export
recovery.
In fact M.R. Pridiyathorn Devakula predicts that economic growth will
improve in 2005 H2 and 2006. He admits that the key risk factor remains
the high oil prices. This isn’t just a ‘Katrina’ problem. Even prior to
that, World Oil Demand was rising, World Oil Reserves were already being
outpaced, production capacity was in decline, inflationary pressure
continues to rise, current account deficits stubbornly grow and monetary
policy has taken a tightening stance to try to curb inflation. Higher
interest rates cause slower economic performance and with Core Inflation
Forecasts still to the upside, more rate hikes shouldn’t be ruled out.
Thailand now faces the same seemingly unanswerable challenges as the US
and global economies:
- Inflation needs to be kept in check
- With global currencies embarking on a period of extreme volatility, it
will difficult for the baht to retain optimal FOREX positioning
- Financial sector stability is a pre-requisite.
- Current account deficits needed to be reduced
M.R. Pridiyathorn Devakula projects a positive outlook. He believes that
the strong reserves position helps secure foreign investors’ confidence,
serious and effective measures for energy conservation will outweigh the
increased oil price, prioritization of mega projects, especially those
with high import content will boost the economy and mobilization of
domestic saving, especially household saving, will also spur the economy.
We would be more inclined to focus on the deficits, the impact of higher
rates locally, the damage caused by sustained higher oil prices and the
escalation of global slowdown into global recession. M.R. Pridiyathorn
Devakula retains a positive outlook for the Thai economy going forwards.
We prefer to say caveat emptor and would warn equity investors that the
SET is looking shaky - the high may be some way in front of us, but we’d
rather get out too early than miss the boat.
That said, there appears still to be pockets of value in the market. Thai
market expert Michael Fernandez from Seamico Securities made some valid
points earlier in the year when recommending an approach for investing on
the SET - “A top down approach based simply on slowing macro-economic
momentum, tightening credit and decelerating earnings growth could end up
with a selection of underperformers on the SET in 2005. Bearing in mind
the slowing backdrop, we would recommend investors use a bottom up
approach to trawl for value on the SET. In doing so, investors would find
not only modest valuation, but also growth and dividends, particularly
among cyclical stocks that have been sold out too soon.”
Since the turn of the year, electronics have outperformed, despite the
outlook for a slowdown in semi-conductor sales and further softening in
US$ in 2005. Again, we would be selective, rather than indiscriminately
allocate assets to a sector that underperformed in both 2003 and 2004.
Regardless of tightening credit globally, long term interest rates in
Thailand should not rise much more in 2005. There is value in selective
interest sensitive stocks among mid-cap banks, fincos, consumer finance
companies and focused property developers.
We continue to be amazed by the multiples the market is paying for civil
engineering contractors on the SET, particularly following their failure
to foresee substantial material cost increases in 2004. We recommend
building material companies as the ticket to the infrastructure ball.
Sometimes it pays to back the obvious. SET investors have made an
outperformer of telecoms over the past six months, in anticipation of
industry reform and liberalisation in the quarters and years ahead. The
majority of voters backed the PM at the polls in February 2005. Portfolio
investors should follow their lead.
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The above data and research was compiled from sources believed to be
reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its officers can accept
any liability for any errors or omissions in the above article nor bear any
responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any actions taken or not
taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For more information please
contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]
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Snap Shots: Background information
by Harry Flashman
 How
many times when you are taking a photograph do you look at the
background? If you are honest, then the vast majority of you will reply,
“Never.” Unfortunately, the wrong background, fussy, cluttered or
“jarring” is a sure-fire way to spoil what could have been a great
picture.
In your haste and eagerness to make the subject the “hero” you forget to
look at the background, being so engrossed in making the foreground
subject look good. However, there are many photographic techniques that
can be used to get rid of backgrounds completely.
The majority of these techniques do refer to the capabilities of an SLR
camera. With compacts (digital or film), you do not have the luxury of
being able to pre-set the aperture. However, this does not mean that
compact users have no control over picture backgrounds.
One of the best techniques to master is the one that allows you to
control the Depth of Field in any photograph. Depth of Field is merely
the “sharp” area between the foreground and the background in any
photograph. To isolate your subject in a snapshot you should try and get
the sharpness region to begin just before your subject and end just
behind the subject, your “hero”. Here’s how to do this.
For this technique, you do need a camera that allows you to select the
Aperture, otherwise called the f stop. Look at the ring of numbers
around your lens and you will see that they go from about 2.8 through to
22. You don’t even need to know what those numbers mean, but all you
have to remember is that the smaller the number, the shorter the Depth
of Field, and conversely, the bigger the number, the deeper the Depth of
Field.
When you want to take a portrait, focus on the eyes and set a wide
aperture – generally around f4 is satisfactory. Using a standard lens
and shooting about 2 metres from the subject, you will get a Depth of
Field, which will extend from around 200 mm in front to 400 mm behind.
Anything further away will be gloriously out of focus, isolating your
portrait subject from any distracting background, just like the
photograph on the right.
Now let’s look at the other side of the coin. These are the times you
want to have a huge Depth of Field, as in taking landscape photography,
for example. To maximize the Depth of Field, go for the biggest number
on the Aperture scale (generally around f22, though some lenses will
give you f32). As an example, if the background is 1000 metres away,
then focus on a point about 300 metres away. With the one third forward
and two thirds back rule, you will get a good DOF from the foreground,
right the way through to 1000 metres in the distance. Simple, isn’t it,
after you understand the basic principles of these optical laws.
If you have an “Aperture” mode in your camera it is even easier. Select
the aperture mode first, then select the f stop to give you shallow
Depth of Field or deep Depth of Field and the camera will adjust the
shutter speed to suit.
But what do you do when you have a point and shoot camera? Well, it
isn’t the end of the world. First try and arrange your photo shoot
location in a shadowed area. The automatic iris on the camera will
automatically select a small numbered Aperture which will shorten the
Depth of Field for you.
Now there is another way to get a nothing black background, and this is
with flash. This you can do even with a compact. Position your subject
as far away from the background as possible. Now by moving in close to
the subject, the flash will illuminate the “hero” but runs out of
brightness before it gets to the background. Look at the photo this
week, as that is how that was done.
If all else fails, then just walk in close so that the subject fills the
frame so well that there is no room for a background. Distracting
backgrounds are now a thing of the past!
Modern Medicine: Middle ears do not grow
on children’s foreheads
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
Children are amazing little people. They come up with all
sorts of cute symptoms, which initially you would imagine point towards one
bodily system, but in actual fact belong to something apparently quite
unrelated.
This absolute “truism” was brought back to me when a seven year old came to
stay. This sick child had been unable to eat for two days and intermittently
vomited for the past 24 hours. He was flushed, and a hand on the forehead
was enough to show he was running a fever.
His mother was worried that son and heir was going to end up having his
appendix removed in this foreign land. A strange pagan country where they
eat grasshoppers and beetles as an after dinner delicacy! (Personally I
prefer chocolate frogs!)
She was even more worried when I approached him with an auriscope. That’s
one of those instruments for looking in ears. Sure enough, there was the
flaming red ear drum, the herald sign of Otitis Media, otherwise known as
“Middle Ear Infection”.
Ear infections are actually very common in small children. Most ear
infections involve the middle ear. This is called Otitis Media.
Babies and young children suffer more middle-ear infections than older
children because the tubes connecting the middle ear to the throat (the
Eustachian tubes) are shorter and when the Eustachian tube is blocked, fluid
does not drain very well from the middle ear to the throat, and air does not
get up into the middle ear space as well as it should.
Babies and toddlers may suffer intense ear pain and usually have a fever.
There may also be vomiting, loss of appetite, decrease in energy and some
loss of hearing. In some cases, pus will break through the eardrum. This
results in a thick yellow discharge from the ear. The child feels better
when the ear discharges as the painful pressure is gone. The burst eardrum
usually heals on its own.
Going straight to the cause was not a case of brilliant diagnosis (though
the plaudits of the crowd are always accepted) but purely the result of many
years of experience. In any young child with those symptoms, one must always
suspect and exclude the middle ear problems.
Why do they vomit with it? Probably for the same reason that people get sea
sick – disruption of the normal fluid workings of the inner ear. Whatever,
it is always worth asking your vomiting, febrile child if he or she “hurts”
anywhere. If they point to or pull at the ear then you are most likely on
the right track.
Remember that the middle ear infection does not necessarily produce an ear
discharge as an initial symptom. For that to happen, it means the pus and
goo trapped in the middle ear has ruptured through the ear drum. What we
call a perforation, generally shortened to “perf”.
The treatment is a swiftly administered appropriate anti-biotic. If the ear
is discharging, then a culture can be taken and the exactly appropriate
antibiotic chosen. If not, then most doctors fly by the seat of their pants
and prescribe a Penicillin derivative or one of the newer drugs. Some
paracetamol to ease any pain and lower the temperature completes the package
and expect junior to be better in a couple of days.
If your child gets recurrent middle ear infections, then you really should
get this investigated – including an audiogram (hearing test) to ensure
there is no lasting damage.
So just remember, Mums of the world, vomiting may not necessarily mean an
intra-abdominal problem. It could all be in the ears!
 Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
One subject I haven’t seen addressed in your column is the social problems
involved with aging. I am in my 78th year, and have experienced the usual
physical and mental deterioration that one would expect in one’s later
years. My hearing is shot (the only things I can hear clearly are karaokes
and speaker trucks). My sight has dimmed, dementia set in, E.D. (at my age
normal sex is like shooting pool with a rope), and so forth.
These problems have taken a toll on my normal lifestyle, but in most cases I
have managed to cope. For example sexual gratification has been provided by
the therapists at Pattaya’s numerous road houses. Now, however, I have been
beset by the cruelest malfunction of all ... involuntary flatulence. It’s
well known that older people have a problem with gas, but up until recently
I have been able to pull the trigger (so to speak) at my discretion. I no
longer have this ability. My social life is in shambles. While it is an
excellent excuse to avoid jury duty or church services, and is the source of
much-needed exercise taking the stairs to avoid crowded elevators, I find
that I’m alone a lot.
Don’t suggest adult diapers because I am in no way incontinent, and the
emissions alluded to are pure gas (not the odorless variety). Tums don’t
help much. I just sit in my room ... widow open and fan on “high”, growing
old and lonely. How can I cope, Hillary.
Tully
Dear Tully,
What an admission, my malodorous Petal! I’m a-gassed and blown over by your
rectal problem. But like your ED problems, help is at hand, to coin a
phrase. Have you ever heard of “Le Petomane” a rather unique French
gentleman? “Le Petomane” aka Joseph Pujol (1857-1945) was a French music
hall artiste (or more correctly “fartiste”) who found he was able to play
tunes and make special effects by passing wind. He practiced at home till he
could control himself going through his motions, so to speak. He was quite a
rage in the latter years of the 19th century and the first decade of the
20th and even performed for the then Prince of Wales, later King Edward VII
and the King of Belgium. He was more popular than the famous Sarah
Bernhardt, whom you would have heard of,
Le Petomane
being 78, such as you are. In a typical Le
Petomane performance, he appeared on stage in red cape, black silk “poison”
trousers (they had an arsenic), and white cravat, with a pair of white
gloves held in the hands for a touch of elegance. Having explained that his
emissions were odorless - Le Petomane took care to irrigate his colon daily
- he would proceed with a program of fart impressions, as it were: the timid
fart of the young girl, the hearty fart of the miller, the fart of the bride
on her wedding night (almost inaudible), the fart of the bride a week later
(a lusty raspberry), and a majestic 10 second fart which he likened to a
couturier cutting six feet of calico cloth. However, it is rumored that one
day whilst giving a gala performance at the Pompadour Theatre in Paris he
followed through in his silk underwear on stage and in front of the
audience. He was never the same after that and gave up about the time when
WW1 broke out in Europe. Now, Tully, I am not suggesting that at 78 years of
age you start a new stage career with your involuntary wind, but the point
of the flatulent tale is the Le Petomane’s practicing to make his passing
perfect, and the colonic washouts to stop the smell. There’s your answer!
My Dear Hillary,
You are such a treasure! A public thank you and a reprint of my card. My
Chiang Mai friends are terribly jealous about the attention I am receiving.
I am so glad the champagne and chocolates brought some pleasure into your
life. All the best for the New Year and keep up the good work in 2006. Hugs.
Grateful Peter
Dear Grateful Peter,
I am pleased to tell you that the pleasure from the champagne was not only
mine, but also for the friend I shared it with, though I have to shyly admit
that probably the thick end of the bottle was mine! After all, I am sure you
would have been very disappointed if I didn’t have the major share. The
chocolates were another story, however. I played out my Miss Piggy role to
perfection with those and scoffed them all! Thank you again for restoring my
faith in human nature, though I did get a scolding from my dentist.
Psychological Perspectives: The controversial concept of IQ
by Michael Catalanello,
Ph.D.
Have you ever taken an intelligence or
“IQ” test? Many of us have taken IQ tests at some point during our school
experiences. Occasionally “pop psychology” IQ tests appear in popular
magazines. These days you can even find IQ tests on the internet. Are IQ
tests valid measures of intelligence? Perhaps more to the point, what is
intelligence? Is there such a thing, really?
The notion of intelligence begins with the observation that we humans seem
to differ from one another in our ability to perform various mental tasks.
At one extreme we find that a relatively small percentage of people
demonstrate remarkably high levels of performance of complex and
sophisticated tasks. Some individuals perform amazing mental feats which
demonstrate remarkable innovation, creativity and/or ingenuity.
At the other extreme, we find an equally small minority of people labeled
as “mentally retarded” who have difficulty performing the most basic tasks
necessary for their own safety and survival. They usually have difficulty
learning to read and write. They seem incapable of understanding abstract
concepts, or using language in a way most of us do. They may even have
trouble performing so-called “motor tasks” involving complex movement and
coordination.
Artists, creative writers, talented musicians, brilliant scientists,
skilled athletes, and others seem to have an abundance of something which
seems in shorter supply within the general population. By comparison,
others seem to be severely lacking in that same something. Most of us seem
to have it in various quantities in between. That “something” is what
psychologists refer to as intelligence.
Sir Francis Galton, the cousin of the famous Charles Darwin, was the first
to devise tests of intelligence over a century ago. Since then,
psychologists have attempted to further develop and refine IQ tests.
Whether our modern IQ tests are measuring what they purport to measure is
an open question among today’s psychologists. The nature of intelligence
and our methods of measuring it are issues that have been hotly debated
over the years. A hundred years after Galton, the controversy is still not
settled.
There is a strange truth to the circular definition of intelligence
provided by the psychologist E.G. Boring; “Intelligence is whatever it is
that IQ tests measure.” Since intelligence cannot be observed directly, we
are left to infer its existence and measurement from a person’s performance
on a test. A test simply provides a sample of behavior. Since intelligence
is conceived to be something other than behavior, we are left to wonder
whether it is really intelligence we are measuring. This is a question
about the validity of IQ tests.
Psychologists have tried to establish the validity of IQ tests by measuring
the relationship between measures of IQ and other tests measuring things
like aptitude, achievement, and cognitive abilities. When they find a
strong relationship or correlation with such measures, they usually feel
more confident in the validity of the IQ test. Other psychologists consider
IQ tests to actually be measures of achievement, reflecting more about
knowledge gained, as opposed to actual abilities. That would also explain
their strong correlation with measures of achievement.
The disagreements don’t stop there. Those psychologists who do believe in
IQ generally do not agree on a theory of intelligence. Some believe in a
single “general intelligence” factor, dubbed “g” by the psychologist
Charles Spearman. The idea is that a person could be determined to be
generally bright or generally dull, according to the amount of “g” he or
she has available. Furthermore, special intelligence factors, called “s”
are proposed to have affects on particular abilities.
Other psychologists have proposed that, rather than a general factor,
intelligence consists of a combination of primary abilities that can
individually vary from person to person. Louis Thurston suggested seven
such factors. Other investigators have proposed that intellectual abilities
can be represented by anywhere from 20 to 150 factors.
One of the most controversial issues concerning intelligence has come from
those who have tried to find IQ differences among different “races.”
Because high intelligence is highly valued by our societies, some have
tried to suggest that racial superiority could be demonstrated using IQ
tests. The main problem with this approach is that the notion of “race” is
not a scientific concept, but rather a social one (see last week’s
Psychological Perspectives for more on that). Also, IQ tests have been
demonstrated to be culturally biased, meaning that they do not measure the
same thing among culturally distinct people.
There is a funny story about a man waiting at a bus stop who encounters a
mother with a small child. “My, what a lovely child you have!” says the
man. “Oh, don’t go by that,” replies the woman. “You should see her
photographs!” Some treat IQ scores like that. The usefulness of IQ derives
from its ability to make predictions about future behavior. We make a
mistake when we treat the scores as more important than the person whose
behavior they are intended to predict.
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Dr. Catalanello is a licensed psychologist in his home State of Louisiana, USA, and a member of the Faculty of Liberal Arts at Asian University,
Chonburi. You may address questions and comments to him at [email protected], or post on his weblog at
http://asianupsych.blogspot.com
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A Female Perspective: Household Chores
with Sharona Watson
Coming from a Kibbutz, as I do, a place
where every job is equally respected, whatever it is, and the people who
work and live in the place must do every job at some stage, it was very
interesting for me to start living in a country like England, where it
seemed to me that there was this thing called “classes” which seemed to
decide who you were, by what you did.
The head of the Kibbutz is called the general secretary and he or she would
often be seen washing the dishes in the communal dining room on Shabbat
(usually the one day of the week off) or taking out the garbage. Of course,
everybody took turns to do these jobs, including the job of general
secretary, but the point is that all the jobs where regarded as equally
important to the smooth running of the Kibbutz and the people were never too
proud to do any job.
I think that when you live in a strong community like I did, you quickly
realise not only that, “hey, someone has to clean the toilets,” but also,
“one day, it’s going to be me”. So you develop respect for doing each job
well and because you are always on your way to your next job, you don’t wait
to be asked. You develop initiative. If something needs doing, you do it.
And this helps your self respect.
Yet I have been to many countries now where in the street, everyday, you can
sense and see disrespect for the people who do the “dirty jobs”. You know,
you can tell a lot about a person by the way they talk to a bin-man or a
cleaner. In many of these countries I noticed that there was a lot of litter
on the floor, which to me shows a lack of self-respect as well as a lack of
respect for others and the environment.
Once, I was walking down a street in Chelsea in London and a boy of about 10
years old, in front of me, finished his carton of juice and just threw it
onto the floor. I tapped him on the shoulder and asked him, “Excuse me,
would you pick that up, please?” And then this huge, angry man walking next
to him, who turned out to be his father, wheeled around to me and shouted,
“You pick it up!” This incident said a lot to me about attitudes people have
to others and their roles in society.
So translate this into the home. What is the male’s attitude towards taking
part in household chores in your house? Does he take part? Does he take the
initiative and do what needs to be done without being asked, or does he just
expect things to be done?
I should say that the kind of chores I’m talking about are not just part of
the role of a “housewife”. I’m talking about household habits as well. For
example, Andy is definitely fastidious in the kitchen. Everything needs to
be perfectly clean and hygienic. To be honest, sometimes (with respect to
grandparents) he witters on like an old granny about it. Sure, he takes the
rubbish out and collects the bins from around the house. He claims to clean
the toilets (although I’ve never seen him do it) and does odd-jobs when I
pester him. But, bring him close to an iron and he’ll break out in a fever.
It’s true, he’s never asked me to iron a shirt, but someone has to do it! He
says that he’s useless at ironing so it makes sense to “divide labour” by
getting those who are really good at something, to do what they are good at.
Of course it’s a scam. He’s just trying to avoid ironing. He knows it. I
know it.
But the thing men seem to overlook is this: it’s not like I enjoy doing
household chores. It’s just that they need to be done. And not liking them
doesn’t mean I won’t do the best job possible. But if I’m ironing, I’m still
thinking to myself, “There must be something more interesting for me to be
doing at this point!”
On the other hand, I really feel very fortunate to be working at home and to
be here when the children come home from school. In the morning, when the
chores of getting the children and Andy ready for school are done and they
have whizzed off in the car, there is a beautiful time of silence, when I
can listen to the waves on the shore and have a cup of coffee in peace. I
take a deep breath and prepare myself for the challenges of the day.
If I were still in England, the radio would be on and I’d be listening to
Radio 4, with “Woman’s hour”. So I should be grateful that I am able to stay
at home. There are not many countries where you can afford to have one of
the parents stay at home. I’m lucky to have a man who has such a variety of
talents, which whilst they keep him too busy for my liking, enable us to
live in comfort.
You know, I should admit something. We have a lady who comes and helps clean
and iron. Khun Tip is fantastic and we could never afford to have help like
this in Europe. We’re like friends now. But the chores don’t begin and end
when she comes and goes. When Andy comes home he has this routine. Ice
cream, cup of tea, help the children with their homework, then go and do
his. He says, “Right, chores!” And I say, “What chores?” And he answers,
“Thanks very much, I’ll have a can of Singha!” It’s like a routine we have
and he seems to think that it’s funny. I think there’s a joke in there
somewhere, but I haven’t found it.
Next week: Love and Marriage
[email protected]
Language Works: Romanisation: Part 2
The Royal Thai General System of Transcription
by lan Smith
For those who came in late … I hope no one has been
waiting with bated breath (highly unlikely!) for this second article about
Romanisation, as it has been a long time coming. So, to refresh your
memories, in Part 1 we looked at the chaotic Romanisation, or
transliteration, of Thai script. We sampled just a few of the multitude of
conflicting systems found in street signs, guide books, Karaoke bars and
Internet chat-rooms, and I complained:
Part of the chaos is caused by the number of different systems out there. It
is not so much a case of no standards, as a case of too many! It seems as if
everyone that writes about the Thai language feels that he or she can
improve on all of the existing systems.
So, er … well, not one to be left out, I will also make a few suggestions of
my own this week. However, for reasons that I hope will become clear, I am
not going to implement my own suggestions in this column. Instead, I will
use and advocate the Royal Thai General System of Transcription (RTGS),
developed and published by the Royal Thai Institute.
Why use the RTGS?
The RTGS was not designed for serious students of Thai, but for a very
broad group of casual Thai users, from tourists and business people to
foreign government officials, all with diverse mother-tongues. Ideally, it
should take little or no effort to learn, yet get all of its users to a
comprehensible standard of pronunciation.
If it does its job well, it should be the ideal system for the Pattaya
Mail’s diverse readership. However, a one-size-fits-all system is a pretty
big ask when you think about it. Let’s take a look at how well the RTGS
achieves its Mission Impossible.
Linguists’ criticisms of the RTGS
The RTGS has been criticised by linguists precisely because it is not
precise. They list four main shortcomings (as adapted from the Wikipedia):
1. It does not record tones
2. It does not differentiate between short and long vowels
3. “Ch” represents two different Thai sounds that approximate an English
“ch” and an English “j”. An example of this that Pattaya residents will be
familiar with is the various spellings of Chomthian, Jomtien, Chom-tien,
etc.
4. “O” represents two different Thai sounds that approximate a Midwest
American “aw” as in “paw” and a BBC English “aw” as in “paw”.
These would normally be reasonable criticisms – textbook criticisms in fact.
I dusted off my old Linguistics 401 text book and the RTGS breaks most of
the “rules” for designing a writing system.
What the critics miss, though, is the special purpose of the RTGS. The
criticisms would be quite valid if it had been designed for native speakers,
like the Vietnamese or Bahasa Malay writing systems. Or if it had been
designed for serious students of Thai, like the Royal Thai Precise System.
Or even if it had been designed solely for, say, tourists from New Jersey.
But the RTGS was designed as a one-size-fits-all system. If you make it more
precise for one group of speakers, other speakers’ pronunciation will
suffer. For example, if you write Chomthian as Jomtian, pronunciation of
English speakers will improve, but Germans may pronounce it Yomtian.
My two cents’ worth on the RTGS
To serve its purpose better, the RTGS should be made simpler, not more
complicated. What casual Thai users find most confusing about the system are
the “ph”, “th” and “kh” combinations. For example, I have heard many Pattaya
expats discussing their “Sofon” cable TV service. Or pronouncing the “pen”
in “Mai pen rai” as if it were a writing implement. Then there is the island
of Phuket.
The Thai language includes three sounds that are not really part of most
European languages. Technically known as voiceless, unaspirated stops, they
are commonly described as half-way between “p” and “b”, “t” and “d”, and “k”
and “g”. So, in the RTGS, “p”, “t” and “k” represent these halfway sounds,
while “ph”, “th” and “kh” represent our English “p”, “t” and “k” sounds.
Still confused? Don’t worry – you’re not alone. My point is that few casual
Thai users can pronounce these half-way sounds anyway, so why make room for
them in the RTGS?
Here is what I would do:
1. Replace “ph”, “th” and “kh” with “p”, “t” and “k” respectively;
2. The halfway sounds that are currently represented by “p”, “t” and “k”
would be represented by “b”, “d” and “g” respectively.
Most of my Thai friends agree that it is easier to understand if a foreign
speaker pronounces, for example, the “pen” in “mai pen rai” as English “ben”
rather than English “pen”. It is also how the majority of English speakers,
and speakers of many other European languages, will perceive these Thai
sounds.
So, why not implement my own very worthy refinements to the RTGS in this
column?
The importance of standards
The Royal Thai Institute first developed the RTGS in 1932, and has been
refining it ever since. It has, in recent years become an ISO standard,
which augurs well for its future.
Anyone who has been involved with implementing ISO standards in the
workplace will be familiar with the new (post 2000) ISO philosophy – systems
for promoting continuous improvement rather than conformance to fixed
standards.
And that is exactly what we need – an orderly system of continuous
improvement of a single, official standard for casual Thai users. Each time
people like me use our own systems, we merely add to the chaos.
So, I will use the RTGS as it stands in this column – with one notable
exception. I am not suggesting that this publication be renamed the Phathaya
Mail. Let’s leave Pattaya where she stands and wait for the RTGS to catch
up.
If you would like further information about the RTGS, there is a very good
article in the Wikipedia: http://en. wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Thai_General_
System_of_Transcription. And as always, if you have any questions, or would
like to vent your spleen, feel free to email me at: [email protected]
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