|
Money matters: Investing closer to home (Part
2)
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
Stocks are on occasions cheap for good reasons. One
such reason rests on the perceived prospect for an imminent downturn in
the relevant industry. For instance, many portfolio investors are
concerned with petrochemicals and shipping hitting a cycle peak in 2005-6.
While we do not dispute that the broad petrochemical and shipping
industries could both be in for a period of product and service prices
levelling off beginning in 2006, we also see exceptions to the general
expectation. We believe that the small handy dry-bulk shipping sector is
not about to be flooded by oversupply of new vessels in the next 12
months. We also believe the aromatics cycle is likely to see new capacity
come on line later than other sub-sectors in the petrochemical industry.
In common with other emerging economies in Asia, we expect the Thai
economy to grow at a decelerating rate. Rising interest rates around the
world and high crude prices for the second year in the row would slow down
growth in consumer expenditure and turn Thailand’s trade account into a
deficit.
The SET trades at about 12x 2004 market EPS and 10x 2005 market EPS at
present. The average PER of the SET between 1988 and 2004 is about 13.5x.
Given the outlook for slowing macro-economic growth in Thailand and in the
rest of the world, tightening credit and crude prices remaining stubbornly
high, a top down approach to portfolio investing would likely avoid
interest sensitive stocks, such as banks, consumer finance companies and
residential property developers, and treat with caution cyclical stocks,
growth companies and exporters in 2005. Based on a typical top down
approach, investors would likely select infrastructure plays, defensives,
such as big cap energy companies and reliable dividend payers. As stated
before, there is better value to be had by the bottom end approach.
Seamico, as usual, has been pretty spot on so far, but by the year end,
we’d want to see more signs supporting M.R. Pridiyathorn’s optimism and
less justification for our caution or else we’d move from long to short in
our SET view. It’s interesting that everyone seems to be jumping on the
bandwagon right now - last week the International Herald and Tribune
chipped in by reporting that certain hedge fund operators and the media
services have been in overdrive these days, warning of a repeat of the
1997-98 Asian financial crisis. The Indonesian Rupiah has been said to be
in freefall with reports of the same happening in Thailand and elsewhere.
The reason for this is the oil price hit to Asian trade balances and
government failure to follow the market and raise local fuel prices and
lift interest rates.
The article reports that while most Asian countries are heavily dependent
on imported oil and most do have high energy ratios to GDP, partly due to
low energy prices, with the cost of energy subsidies having a negative
impact on government budgets and energy distributors profitability, but
these prices are being held down for short-term political reasons and most
subsidies will be removed as soon as possible.
Furthermore Indonesia, for example, while said to be in a current
mini-crisis, is an energy exporter of coal and gas, which offset the small
net oil imports. The impact is not on its balance of payments but on the
budget.
Thailand is reported to be in a danger zone due to the current account
deficit cited above. The IHT was significantly less detailed than M.R.
Pridiyathorn attributing most blame to the tsunami’s damage to tourism
income. It rightly stated that Thailand’s fiscal position cannot stand
permanent domestic price subsidies but also that currently domestic demand
requires a temporary cushion against a sudden fall in consumer spending
power.
Malaysia, also said to be acting irresponsibly with regard to oil prices,
is helping its economy sustain consumption at a time when the current
account surplus is running at more than 15% of GDP, money which is mostly
going to prop up the spending of deeply indebted households in the US, UK
and other developed countries.
In all of these instances it failed to take account of the future impact
of global slowdown. Thailand is healthier and in many ways better
positioned than in 1997 but the sustained high oil prices feared by M.R.
Pridiyathorn and the sustained global economic downturn feared by many
analysts could be a very unfortunate combination.
However, it may be that the best news for the Thai economy happened a
couple of thousand miles away, where incumbent Japanese Prime Minister
Junichiro Koizumi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won 296 seats in the
480-member House of Representatives, well above the 241 seats needed for a
majority and above the 249 seats the party held when Koizumi dissolved the
chamber, and a landslide affirmation of his stated intention to reform
Japanese society. By calling the snap election in August, Koizumi
effectively set a national referendum on his bid to privatize Japan Post,
a financial-services giant with $3 trillion in savings and insurance
assets. The move would effectively create the largest bank in the world.
Postal privatization is pivotal to Koizumi’s wide-sweeping reform agenda.
“The election was carried out under difficult circumstances at first,”
Koizumi told a news conference. “In the end, we got much more support from
the people of Japan than expected. I accept the judgment of the people
with a sense of great responsibility, and will work to pass the postal
reform bills as soon as possible. I intend to push forward policies on
other issues of concern to the people, such as social insurance, in
parallel with postal reform,” he said, without giving details.
Both the stock markets (the Nikkei finished above 12,850 at a four-year
high) and the yen gained responded positively to the news. While we don’t
expect progress in Japan to be straightforward we do expect Japan to take
2 steps forward for every step back - the converse of the ratio that we
expect to see in the West. Japan may represent some economic salvation for
emerging Asia, although we would start to increase exposure to Japan
cautiously right now and wait a little longer to see how the picture
develops for Thailand, ASEAN and emerging Asia.
|
The above data and research was compiled from sources believed to be
reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its officers can accept
any liability for any errors or omissions in the above article nor bear any
responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any actions taken or not
taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For more information please
contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]
|
Snap Shots: Cats and kids – you have been warned!
by Harry Flashman
Cat pic by Ernie Kuehnelt
When someone says you take great photos and asks you to
take a photograph of their offspring – forget the warm glow this gives
you and turn down the offer! Staying away from kids and animals used to
be the maxim for stage performers. It is the same for photographers.
While every mother and pet owner wants wonderful photographs of their
charges, it is very difficult to get one that you will be happy with,
let alone the owner of kid/pooch/cat (delete those not applicable).
The biggest problem is the short attention span demonstrated by children
and pets. Something they can be interested in will last around 2
milliseconds if you are lucky. Hang about composing, focussing and other
fiddling will see the child turn round, the dog will start licking
something you would not want recorded for posterity and the moggie will
just stalk off, tail in the air. Or it can be a combination of all
three.
The answer is to be fore-warned and therefore fore armed. You have to
visualize the shot first and make it happen second. It is not a case of
following the child around and going snap, snap, snap and hoping one
will turn out OK. It won’t, and you’ll get tired.
What does help is to look at photographs in magazines and books, and
when you find a pose that you like, then work out just how did the
photographer get the shot. This is important if you are going to try to
capture that same “look” with your shots. By the way, this is not
cheating or blatant copying, which I am totally opposed to, all you are
doing is seeing how you can technically get a pleasing result.
Chances are, when you have found the shots you like, that you will find
that to get the shot, the camera is on the same level as the subject.
This goes for about 99 out of 100 shots of alert kids/pooches/cats. When
they are asleep, then take from above – the 1 in a 100 shot!
It is for this reason that pro photographers have a couch they put kids
on – just to bring them up to normal camera level. Likewise, those
demented photographers who make their money by photographing animals do
the same. After all, you look a right proper idiot crawling round on
your belly taking shots in front of the startled owners!
OK, let’s get down to action with your kids and animals. Begin by
setting the scene and you begin with the background. A dull mottled
material background works well as it does not have fussy details to take
your eyes away from the main subject. You should also position this
background at least 1 metre away from where the subject will be placed.
You can either paint this background yourself, or you can buy rolls of
it from professional camera houses.
Now position something in front of the camera to represent Phido or
Philip. Place it where you expect the subject to sit and pre-focus and
set your exposure details (or just set the camera on Auto and let it do
the work). Now look through the viewfinder and make sure you have all of
the background material in the frame, as well as the child/animal sized
dummy. A large stuffed toy can be used for this purpose. If you have a
tripod, it is a good idea to use it here too.
Now get a favourite toy (for the humans) and some bacon fat for cats and
a box of matches for dogs. Speed is now the name of the game. Position
the child where the stuffed toy or whatever was seated and give it to
the child. Start snapping NOW! If you are lucky, you will have caught
that “magic moment” of childish glee. If you’re lucky.
With the cat, have the owner smear the bacon fat on its mouth and it
will reward you with the tongue lick shot. With the dog, rattle the
matches and it will prick its ears up for that “alert dog” look. That is
just before it lunges at you from the table! Stay away from kids and
animals. You have been warned.
Modern Medicine: Exercise for Health. Does that include sexercise?
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
Probably the commonest advice a doctor gives is to lose
weight and some exercise. Does that ring a bell in your memory? Was that
part of the advice after your annual physical check-up?
Unfortunately, there seems to be very little real understanding of what
exercise should consist of, how often, what type, how long and what about
sex? For example, I was reading an article on exercise the other day and it
said authoritatively that one should wear comfortable clothing and socks
with the correct size of non-slippery, shock-absorbing shoes. If this
includes sexercise, there are some strange shoe fetishes out there that I
haven’t heard of yet!
However, getting a little serious, exercise will be good for you, provided
that you pick a form of exercise that is not harmful for you! Now I know
that looks as if I have put my money on both horses in the race, but take
that sentence at its face value. Enough research has been done to show that
regular exercise is beneficial for everybody, in both the physical and
psychological aspects, but, and it is a big ‘but’, all forms of exercise
have relative bodily risks, and this has to be taken into account before you
buy a pair of expensive jogging shoes and tackle a 10 km trot in the middle
of the day. True stories – a medical colleague in Australia took up playing
squash when he turned 50 and dropped dead on the court of a heart attack,
and another acquaintance of mine turned 40, decided he wasn’t fit, bought a
bicycle to ride to work each day and was run over by a bus.
The same article that advised non-slippery shoes, did have some wise words,
however. These included to choose appropriate exercise according to your
ability. Never exceed your limit. Remember that it is not the harder the
better. If you have acute medical problems (such as fever, or pain), stop
exercising. If you have chronic medical conditions (such as hypertension,
diabetes, ischemic heart disease and arthritis), seek advice from your
doctor or physiotherapist beforehand. All of these I agree with. If you are
happy to take your body to your medical advisor when it is sick, take it
back to your doctor for advice on how to tone it up as well.
The other words of wisdom suggested that for prolonged exercise such as
hiking, continually drink water to supplement the loss of body fluid due to
sweating. Do not wait until you are thirsty. Take appropriate breaks during
exercise. Do not over-exert yourself. Forget about “powering through the
pain barrier”. Leave that for Olympic cyclists.
As well as the form of exercise, there is the frequency. At least three
times per week, 20-30 minutes (or more) is necessary each time, to derive
the maximum benefit. And always remember, if there is dizziness, fainting,
shortness of breath, chest pain, vomiting, nausea or severe pain during
exercise, stop exercising immediately and seek medical advice as soon as
possible.
Now I did mention at the start of this week’s article, the word “sexercise”,
and some of you have been impatiently reading, while nervously fiddling with
your expensive packet of Viagras, Kanagras, Cialis and other
lead-in-your-pencil medications (I draw the line at tiger willy). OK, what
about sex? The advisability of this form of exercise when you have some
chronic complaint (such as hypertension, diabetes, ischemic heart disease,
etc), should be part of the advice you get from your doctor beforehand. The
danger of over the counter willy stiffeners is that you don’t get advice
with them.
Finally, the learned article did say “Exercise with friends. Company
provides enjoyment, mutual encouragement and support.” That goes for
sexercise too!
 Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
I enjoy your Heart to Heart column every week, but am wondering why you
print and respond to mistersinga? It is becoming a distraction from your
otherwise entertaining and educational material.
Steve “Red” Barron
Dear Steve (Red Baron Von Richtofen?),
Do you know the definition of a sadist? It’s someone who is nice to a
masochist. I have this horrible feeling that I am becoming a masochist even
by reading his emails. However, deep down inside, underneath this gruff
exterior I have a heart of chocolate, and I end up feeling sorry for him.
Enough of the entertainment value!
Since you want educational material as well as advice for the love-lorn,
your namesake, the famous Red Baron, also used several names. Richthofen was
known as der rote Kampfflieger (Red Battle-Flyer) by the Germans, Petit
Rouge (little Red) or le Diable Rouge (Red Devil) or Johnny by the French,
and the Red Knight or the Red Baron in the English-speaking world. The
German translation of ‘Red Baron’ is Der Rote Baron, and Richthofen is known
by this name in Germany as well. If you own a dog, you should not call him
Snoopy (as per the Peanuts comic strip), as Captain Arthur “Roy” Brown was
the British Sopwith Camel pilot who chased the Red Baron to his death,
thought to be from an Australian AA gunner on the ground.
However, there appears to be no such grandeur with mistersingha’s nom de
plume. I think he probably coined it after drinking too much of the amber
produced by Boon Rawd Breweries. With a little luck his liver will soon
fail, and we will be rid of him forever!
Dear Hillary,
A couple of weeks ago, someone wrote in complaining of the ding-dong that
happens when you open the door of the very large world wide convenience
store chain. I can’t see what he is complaining about. At least someone then
welcomes you to the shop with the “Chern, Kha” and that puts me in a good
mood. I reckon some people complain about nothing.
Ding-Dong
Dear Ding-Dong,
Like you, my Petal, I see (hear) nothing wrong with the welcoming chimes
from the 7-11’s, but I do get worried by the plethora (nice word for a
Friday) of them. On my local soi there is one on each corner of the mouth on
to the main road. How do they survive?
Dear Hillary,
There are two very nice girls I have met recently and I would like to take
them out. My problem is the fact that they both work in the same office as
me! If I take one out, it will be all over the office the next day, so I am
worried the other then will not come – or vice versa. I have no intention of
settling down and my contract runs out anyway soon. What do you advise, wise
Hillary?
Undecided.
Dear Undecided,
Why are you cluttering up your life agonizing over ridiculous decisions that
don’t have to be made? You have already said you are only here for a short
time, so stop worrying! If you are so desperate to take them both out then
ask them both at the same time and invite them to go to the local
psychiatric hospital with you. I think you might like it.
Dear Hillary,
One of my workmates has been coming round to our house a lot recently and I
think he is keen on my wife, who is a very beautiful Thai girl. He will come
over to our condominium and ask me for advice about things at work, when he
could easily come and see me in my office during working hours. He also
looks at her a lot. I am suspicious – what is your opinion Hillary? Should I
talk to him or just bust him on the nose?
Unhappy Husband
Dear Unhappy,
There is a very easy way around all this, my unhappy Petal. Why are you
seeing him at home, when, as you say, he could see you at work to discuss
these so-called problems? If he rings, just say you are too busy and to see
you in the morning at work, or if he’s the type to arrive uninvited just
refuse to entertain him at home and again tell him to see you in the morning
at work. An Englishman’s home is always his castle. Protect it. He’ll get
the message in the end, unless he is as thick as two short planks.
Dear Hillary,
I hate bartering for goods. I really would just prefer to know the price and
pay for it, but my friends all tell me that you have to barter as it is an
accepted part of trade in Asia. What can I do, Hillary? There must be more
people like me.
Betty
Dear (No)Barter Betty,
Simple! You just pay the first asking price and live with the knowledge that
you have been ripped off. Or you can shop only in large supermarkets which
have fixed prices. Or send the maid out to do the shopping for you. It is an
Asian “ethnic” practice you get used to, like queuing in the United Kingdom,
or going mad over the Superbowl in America.
Psychological Perspectives: Why does a lapse in smoking cessation
so often lead to a relapse?
by Michael Catalanello,
Ph.D.
A friend of mine was a heavy smoker for
many years. He had attempted to quit on several occasions; actually did
quit several times, only to eventually resume smoking. Each relapse began
with the smoking of a single cigarette. That cigarette would invariably be
followed by another, and another, until something resembling his previous
smoking pattern had become reestablished.
My friend’s experience is not unusual. Research indicates that as many as 9
out of 10 smokers who attempt to quit, resume regular smoking within one
year. Each relapse, of course, begins with the smoking of a one or more
cigarettes in what might be considered a lapse, or a slip. The vast
majority of individuals experiencing such a lapse subsequently resumes a
regular pattern of smoking.
Researchers have reported that from 79% to 97% of those experiencing a
smoking lapse subsequently continue smoking. Why is it that so many of
those attempting to quit resume smoking following a lapse? Why do so few
overcome what could conceivably be a temporary setback? Does a lapse itself
directly cause a relapse, or does it set in motion other factors that
increase the probability of a relapse? A study published this month in the
Journal of Abnormal Psychology published by the American Psychological
Association casts light upon these issues.
Various theories have suggested a number of different mechanisms that may
operate when a smoker attempting to quit experiences a lapse. A
“pharmacological” explanation proposes that a lapse exposes the person to
the effects of an addictive substance, in this case, nicotine, which
reinstates a strong craving, thus motivating attempts to acquire more of
the drug.
There is also believed to be an effect produced by “nonpharmacological”
factors. It has been shown in animal studies that cues associated with a
drug that are presented during a lapse can increase the animal’s motivation
to reacquire the drug. The appearance of the cigarette itself, the feel of
the cigarette between the fingers or the lips, the ritual of lighting up,
and the taste and odor of smoke are examples of some of the stimuli
associated with smoking.
A third explanation involves so-called “cognitive and affective” reactions,
thoughts and emotions which occur as a result of a lapse. According to this
idea, a person who experiences a lapse responds with negative thoughts and
feelings that undermine his success at quitting. For example, a person who
lapses might prematurely conclude that he has failed to kick the habit. He
might further label himself a failure, experience feelings of guilt, and
depression. These thoughts and feelings promote a resumption of smoking.
Psychologist Laura Juliano of American University and her colleagues at
Johns Hopkins conducted a study to in an attempt to illuminate the role of
a lapse in promoting a smoking relapse. Smokers were recruited to take part
in a “practice quit attempt,” rather than a stop-smoking program. All
participants were instructed to quit smoking for 4 days. The subjects were
randomly assigned to one of three groups. Following the 4 days of
abstinence from smoking those in two of the groups were instructed to lapse
by smoking five cigarettes provided by the experimenter. Those in one of
these groups lapsed by smoking cigarettes containing the usual amount of
nicotine. The other group was provided “denicotinized” cigarettes,
containing negligible amount of the drug. A third group was not induced to
lapse.
Subjects were monitored for a period of six days following their “lapse”
(or no lapse) to determine how long it would take for them to spontaneously
resume smoking. Results showed that those in the nicotine and denicotinized
conditions did not differ in any significant way from one another. At the
end of six days 45% of the nicotine group and 40% of the denicotinized
group were still abstaining. This suggests that exposure to nicotine
following smoking cessation might not be an important factor affecting
relapse.
Compared to the two lapse groups, the no lapse group fared significantly
better. At the end of the six days of follow-up 70% of those who had not
been induced by the experimenter to lapse were still abstaining from
cigarettes. This finding supports the idea that conditioning, cognitive,
and emotional factors may play a critical role in influencing people to
relapse following a lapse in smoking cessation.
The finding that nicotine in cigarette smoke did not play an important role
in the lapse to relapse process provides greater insight into the process
by which many smokers fail in their attempt to abstain from smoking. As a
clearer understanding of the elements of smoking relapse emerges from
psychological studies like this one, clinical and health psychologists will
be better able to design effective treatments to prevent the progression so
many smokers make from lapse to relapse.
|
Dr. Catalanello is a licensed psychologist in his home State of Louisiana, USA, and a member of the Faculty of Liberal Arts at Asian University,
Chonburi. You may address questions and comments to him at [email protected], or post on his weblog at
http://asianupsych.blogspot.com
|
A Female Perspective: Love and Marriage
with Sharona Watson
Sometimes, when I look around me, I think
there is so little love in the world. Too often, it seems like a rare
diamond, lying hidden beneath the earth for too long and sadly, too many
people never discover its beauty. But I truly believe that love is there for
everyone to find. You just have to believe in the possibility of dreams
coming true.
That doesn’t mean you have to be careless with your love. In some ways, I
suppose it means that you have to believe in being a romantic, that one day
lightning can strike and your life will be changed immediately and forever,
for the better.
Of course, romantic love is not the only kind of love; there’s the love of
friendship, the love of family, love between mother and child, the love of
brothers and sisters. But I want to focus on the kind of romantic love that
turns into marriage. In which case (I digress) it could be between two men,
or two women, right? After all, gay marriages are becoming more and more
“popular” and are legal in (some states) of the United States, the United
Kingdom and other countries. Good luck to any couple in love, I say!
I feel very lucky to have fallen in love. When it came, it was one of the
more pleasant bombshells that fell about the Kibbutz. Andy tells his own
story about how we met, which can go on for hours and I always take the
mickey out of him when he tells it. But mainly, I am going to admit now in
public, it’s true. In 1982, when I was fifteen and he was seventeen, he came
to Israel. At this time, hundreds of lovely young boys from around the world
would come to the Kibbutz as volunteers, working in our apple orchards or
fish ponds. Can you imagine?! It was as if the world was coming to visit!
And there were lots of handsome ones to choose from; dark, blond,
everything. Even if they were from England, after two weeks they were almost
brown and beautiful. But when I saw Andy, it was different.
On August 3rd 1982, our eyes met and something special happened. I felt that
my life had changed. As a human, I realized I could no longer live in a
world without feeling love. I remember the feeling very clearly. Oh, look at
me! Running away with myself! To cut a long story short, Andy left to finish
high school and then go to play soccer at university in the United States.
He took with him a locket of my hair. I didn’t see him for eight years. Then
one day in 1990, he returned as he had promised he would and we have been
together ever since.
People often ask, why did he leave you in the first place if he loved you so
much? Well, I think that maybe you have to have been in love to understand
the answer. If Andy had stayed in Israel in 1982, he would have always
regretted not having chased his destiny. Our souls had become one and
wherever he had gone, I knew in my heart that he would come back, one day.
Now, I’ve cut a lot of the story but its heart is a shared belief – in love.
When he proposed to me, in Rio de Janeiro in 1991, it was a perfect place to
make our love public and permanent.
Love is a complex and strong emotion. People will go a long way for love. Do
crazy things. For those of my generation and older, who haven’t found what
they are looking for, whom fate hasn’t struck with that special someone or
moment, what are you supposed to think? It is so difficult to keep believing
in something which you have never felt or seen. But I say: keep believing.
The moment you stop believing is the moment the possibility of love
happening, ends!
As we get older, as we become more set in our ways, maybe we become less
able to compromise in the way we live our lives? One of my friends told me
recently that she could not find a partner. She is thirty eight. So I asked
her what happened to the last one she tried, and she complained that he had
snored too much and that he squeezed the toothpaste from the “wrong end”.
Perhaps it’s easier to meet someone when you’re really young because you
learn about living together before you learn about living alone. In
marriage, if there’s one thing you have to do, it’s compromise. In fact it’s
like an endless series of compromises and that’s why remembering that you
love that person is so important. I try and take a minute or two every day
just to think about why I love this man I live with. Sometimes it takes
longer to come up with an answer, but I come up with an answer. I have to
say that initially, I wasn’t really a big believer in the institution of
marriage. There wasn’t a strong record of it in my family. Whereas in Andy’s
family, there seemed to be a silver or golden wedding every other year. So I
needed some convincing. I was only twenty five when I got married and when
you think of all those years which (God willing) you’re going to spend with
one person, well, it’s kind of scary. “Two paths” as the best man said at
our wedding, “become one” but the journey can be tough, difficult and at
times painful. It’s as if you haven’t just bought into love, you’ve bought
the whole package. But it’s love that keeps you on the right path. So in the
words of the song, I suppose that makes love the “horse”, pulling the
“carriage” of marriage behind it. One thing’s for sure, though. You can’t
have one without the other.
Next Week: Discussions and Arguments
[email protected]
|
