Two weeks ago almost 70% of eligible voters turned
out to exercise their rights in the country’s first general election
following the September 19, 2006 military coup, which ousted former
Prime Minister, Thaksin Shinawatra.
The People’s Power Party (PPP), that rose from the
ashes of Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai party were the winners, with 48% of
the vote, with the Democratic Party in second place with 34%. Five other
parties made up the remaining 18%.
The challenge now is to form a coalition government
under the PPP leader, who is also a former Bangkok Governor, Mr. Samak
Sundaravej. It will not be an easy task. Firstly there is the hurdle of
the Election Commission who may suspend or ban MP’s accused of
cheating in the run up to the election. Their findings will not be made
known for two weeks. Secondly, as the horse trading starts, and the
smaller political parties jockey to form a coalition with a working
majority, it is still unclear who PPP will fall into bed with and how
long the love affair might last.
Tourists
are seen walking along Patong Beach in Phuket. The Thai tourism sector
is expected to generate an additional 1 million visitors in 2008, up
from 2007’s estimate of 14.8 million. (AP Photo)
The outcome of the election did not, as
constitutional planners had hoped, enable the smaller political parties
to gain a foothold. The re-written constitution allowed for a greater
number of smaller constituencies in the hope that smaller parties may
have a greater influence. However the truth is that we still endure a
polarized two party system and the outcome is a pointer to the rivalry
between the two major parties. The PPP sweeping the board in the North
and Northeast whilst the Democratic Party dominated densely populated
Bangkok and the whole of the South.
He coup leaders, the Council for National Security
(CNS), backed by the army, are not happy with the outcome. Many of the
richer educated masses in Bangkok that initiated the demonstrations
against Thaksin, which ultimately led to his demise, are also not happy.
The voters in the poorer North are pleased as they hope that Thaksin
will return to power, the man that gave them food to eat and money in
their pocket and initiated populist policies, such as the 30 Baht
($1.00) healthcare scheme.
Mr. Samak Sundaravej, who many thought had not been a
particularly successful Governor of Bangkok, makes no secret of the fact
that he is a supporter (some say mouthpiece) of the former premier. He
has even gone so far as suggesting an amnesty for the politicians of the
former TRT party.
So was it all worth it and how will this effect
Travel and Tourism?
Few argue that a military junta has been bad news for
Thailand Inc. Losses to private industries of 500 billion Baht ($14.7
billion) have been circulating for some time. The corporate and MICE
markets have been badly affected by companies unwilling to conduct their
business in a country ruled by an un-elected military dictatorship.
Following the December 23 election this is now a
thing of the past and the industry has reacted cautiously over the
result. The local stock market however surged 29 points (3.7%) following
the election.
Tourism in 2008 is expected to generate an additional
1 million visitors, up from 2007’s estimate of 14.8 million. With a
new government in place it is hoped that commerce and industry will be a
top priority for the new government. Investor confidence was blunted
under the old regime and many believe there is a brighter future. The
new government will be under considerable pressure to perform and with
an electorate worried how the new government will deal with Mr.
Thaksin’s expected return to Thailand, from his self-imposed exile.
Thailand’s Tourism will fare better in 2008,
however the swing doors of opportunity that opened to Thailand’s
neighbors, following the coup, countries like Vietnam and China, may be
difficult to swing closed, in the highly competitive market of
attracting tourism dollars.
Longtime Thailand resident, Andrew J Wood is General
Manager of the Chaophya Park Hotel Bangkok and Skal International
Councillor for Thailand.
