|
Money matters:
Graham Macdonald MBMG International Ltd.
Money - How Much is it Worth?
Part 2
History has taught us a couple things about the French:
1. They are not very good at fighting (General Patton said, “I’d rather have a
German division in front of me than a French one behind me”).
2. They are very good at making their currency almost worthless - which perhaps
explains why, of all nations, they remain most enamoured with gold.
Next came the Germans. As the Kaiser had run off to Holland, the citizens of the
Weimar Republic had to try and cope with the ridiculous reparations imposed by
the Treaty of Versailles by themselves. This led into one of the worst periods
for hyperinflation in recorded history. It was so bad that it almost makes
Robert Mugabe look fiscally competent (almost). The only way that Germany could
repay the Allies was by having the printing presses on the go 24/7. The debt was
so massive that it could never be repaid - sounds kind of familiar to today.
As stated above, during this time, there was not inflation but hyperinflation.
People were having to use wheelbarrows to haul around enough money just to buy a
loaf of bread. If you want a good idea of hyperinflation then see below for the
Mark v US Dollar exchange rate (admittedly the Mark was called different things
during this period):
April 1919: 12 marks
November 1921: 263 marks
January 1923: 17,000 marks
August 1923: 4.621 million marks
October 1923: 25.26 billion marks
December 1923: 4.2 trillion marks
In recent times, fiat failures have become more common. So as not to send the
reader to sleep, I will not go into details with other currency failures but
there are many examples and here is a quick list:
1932 - Argentina had the eighth largest economy in the world before its currency
collapsed.
1992 - Finland, Italy, and Norway had currency shocks that spread through
Europe.
1994 - Mexico went through the infamous “Tequila Hangover,” which sent the peso
tumbling and spread economic hardships throughout Latin America.
1997 - Thailand’s baht fell through the floor and the effects spread to
Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia, Hong Kong, and South Korea.
1998 - Russia’s ruble was not the currency you wanted your investments
denominated in, after its devaluation brought on economic recession.
Not so long ago, it was the turn of the Turkish lira and now we have Zimbabwe,
which was once considered the breadbasket of Africa and was one of the
wealthiest countries on the continent. Now Mugabe’s attempts at price controls,
combined with hyperinflation, have the nation unable to supply the most basic
essentials such as bread and clean water.
Given the above, you would have thought we would have learned the lessons of
history. Er, no.
Now let us look at what the USA has done with paper money. Colonial notes were
first issued in Massachusetts in 1690. Basically, these could be used to buy
most commodities. Other New World colonies soon joined in and, surprise,
surprise, there was soon too much money in the system.
The next time the Americans tried paper money was after the start of the
American War of Independence. Paper money was needed to finance the war and they
called it the Continental. This soon became worthless and paper money was not
used in America again until just before the First World War with the foundation
of the Federal Reserve and the introduction of the Greenback. Theoretically, the
new US dollar was backed by the Gold Standard until 1971. In reality, when this
did not suit the US government, they just made the ownership of gold illegal -
as per Roosevelt in 1933.
Despite all this, the US dollar held up well and it was not until good old
Richard Nixon kicked the Gold Standard into touch did it begin to suffer. In the
1970s, America had to endure some of the worst inflation in its history.
Forty years on and the USA has managed to steer itself to the precipice as it is
copying what every other major fiat currency has done in the past. American is
fighting two wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, it is patrolling the seas off Somalia
and keeping its eye over the rest of the world. Financing all of this is, to say
the least, inflationary. According to Addison Wiggin, in his book The Empire of
Debt, America’s currency could suffer “an apocalyptic future”.
It can be argued that America has a similar debt to what the Weimar Republic had
(more of this in later issues). Whilst it is true that the reasons for the debt
are totally dissimilar, it is highly likely that the USA will not be able to pay
back what it owes unless is decides to print even more money which would then
make the US dollar worthless. It is already printing too many dollars. Any
further increase would be disastrous.
Since 1913, the US dollar has lost 92% of its original value. Following its
revaluation in 1934, it fell by another 41%. It is only the fact that Asian
central banks and others hold it still to be of some worth that the dollar has
any value at all. When, and I repeat, when they decide to take their money back
then America could be in real trouble - just look what happened to all the
previous fiat currencies.
Above all, remember that America now has so much additional currency in
circulation and significantly less gold. The value of the US dollar with gold
backing it, in relation to the money in circulation, is now 39,000 times less
than in 1971. Maybe a USD100,000 cup of Starbucks? Is it beyond the realms of
possibility?
|
The above data and research was compiled from sources
believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its
officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above
article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any
actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For
more information please contact Graham Macdonald on
[email protected]@mbmg-international.com.comm.com.com
|
Snap Shots: by Harry Flashman
Uneconomic repairs and Photofun
 The
other week a keen amateur photographer wrote in with a problem. “I have
an old, 25 years I think, Pentax K2 which I need to have overhauled as
the shutter speed indicator moves sluggishly, I believe the lubrication
has dried up. I have tried firing the shutter at different speeds for a
long while but the problem is still apparent.”
This photographer had really done as much as he could under these
circumstances and it is time for a trip to the camera doctor. However,
what should also be looked at here is the economics of persevering with
this camera - after all, it is 25 years old at least. For example, would
you bother with a 25 year old car, or think about trading it in at that
age, for a newer (and better) one? My feeling in this case is that if
the repair quotation is more than 1,000 baht it isn’t worth it. The old
K-mount Pentax’s were good cameras, but the technology and optics have
been improved greatly since then.
Being a great believer in “good” second hand equipment (see previous
columns on how to buy a second hand camera) I would be going down that
route, rather than the repair one. With 25 year old cameras that have
had a long history, there are other parts ready to wear out, as well as
just the shutter mechanism. A newer Pentax would have fewer problems,
and give the owner more fun in trying out its capabilities.
I think it is important to remember that “fun” is the important
ingredient in photography. If it isn’t fun - then don’t do it - and that
just about goes for everything in life!
One way to really have fun with your camera is seeing what it really is
capable of. And after seeing what it can do, being able to reproduce the
effect. This is why I keep stressing the Manual Mode in the camera, and
keeping a notebook. If you glue your SLR in the Automatic Mode, then you
will only get shots that are “average” in exposure - shutter speeds and
apertures worked out by the camera’s electronic brain, rather than
yours. Stick it on manual and experiment. That shutter speed that the
electronic brain says is incorrect might just give you a wonderful
emotive blurry shot that is an award winner! Or if nothing else, worth
blowing up and framing and hanging on the wall! And by using your
notebook, you will know just how you did it, and can do it again, and
again and again.
The annotations in the notebook should be simple jottings like,
Back-lit, Frame 1, f5.6 @ 1/30th; Frame 2, f5.6 @ 1/60th; Frame 3, f5.6
@ 1/125th. When you go through the finished photos you will be able to
see the results of 2 complete stops of exposure difference. Sometime I
will also jot down the exposure indicated by the (inbuilt) exposure
meter. Until you are completely familiar with your camera, the little
notebook will stand you in good stead, for years if necessary.
You should never stop experimenting either. Some days you will amaze
yourself at what you can get away with! I mean photographically! For
example, I tend to take a large number of photographs at night,
generally indoors but in low light conditions. I set the flash on f5.6
and generally set the shutter speed on 1/30th, but to bring the
background up a little more I will set the shutter speed to 1/15th. This
is in ‘camera shake’ territory, but the majority are fine. Now I have
found that I can fire off a couple of frames, right down to ¼ second and
still get away with it. OK, I will lean on a wall, or hold the camera
firmly against the wall, but the end results are looking good. In theory
it won’t work, but it does for at least 75 percent of the time. Try it
yourself and see the difference. And that is on a camera without
anti-shake technology.
Modern Medicine:
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
Living through the 50-60 decade
I have been doing some research recently into the most
frequent cause of death. This was prompted by study into the H1N1 2009 virus
(AKA Swine Flu). Let me assure you, the pigs have been subject of a bum rap.
You have more chance of being hit on the head with a piece of frozen whatsit
discharged from a plane 30,000 feet above, than you have of dying from Piggy
Flu.
However, the danger period as far as claiming early on your life assurance
is concerned (or I should say, your beneficiaries claiming early) is the
50-60 decade.
If you are between 50 and 60, coronary heart disease is one of the most
likely causes of your being struck down early, other than a blow from a
rampaging pig.
Coronary heart disease refers to the build up of ‘plaque’ (not the dental
kind) in the inside of the coronary arteries, the arteries that ‘feed’ the
heart muscle.
The heart muscle does not get its oxygenation from the blood inside its
chambers, but through separate “coronary” arteries that run around the heart
and supply the heart muscle directly.
If the inside diameter of the coronary arteries is reduced by 50 percent, it
means that the oxygen required cannot be supplied in enough quantities to
keep the heart muscle alive when it is called to perform extra work, such as
running to (or out of the way of) a song taew, for example. Viagorous
exercise could also come under this heading. Constriction greater than 50
percent means that the heart muscle ‘starves’ of oxygen even more quickly.
We know these days that the ‘plaque’ build-up is made of cholesterol and
calcium, and that the likelihood of deposits depends on many factors,
including diabetes, high blood pressure, high cholesterol levels, stress and
cigarette smoking. This is why we advocate regular testing for those
physical factors, and strongly advise you to give up smoking! We actually do
want you to live a little longer, with a good quality of life.
To diagnose coronary artery disease, we will evaluate a patient’s risk
factors and perform some tests and then divide the patients suspected to be
at risk into the two groups; high and low risk. After that, there are two
main diagnostic procedures that will usually be performed, conventional
coronary angiography (CAG) or the 64-Slice CT.
However, whilst CAG might be the gold standard, it is also expensive (like
gold) and time consuming, as it requires a stay in hospital of four to six
hours. Being a direct intervention, with cardiac catheters, there can also
be a risk of hemorrhage, though this is not usually the case. But it can
happen.
The alternative is the 64-Slice CT. This is the latest variation of CT
scanning, with the original known as 16-slice CT. This was fine for
assessing organs which did not move, but was not as accurate in
demonstrating coronary artery problems, because the heart is moving and
beating inside the chest (unless, of course, if you have died already and
please advise the technician beforehand). However today, with the advent of
the most advanced form of this imaging, the multi-slice detectors and high
powered computer programs called the 64-Slice CT, we can efficiently get
information on the coronary arteries in as few beats as possible, in around
4 seconds. And this comes with 90 percent accuracy.
The 64-Slice CT has many advantages. First off, nobody is actually slicing
you open to insert cardiac catheters into your arteries. The 64 ‘virtual’
slices are done of your cardiac image and the coronary arteries by the
computer program, not physically. Each slice is 0.625 mm, so will be able to
pinpoint calcium deposits. It is a quick and painless procedure. You do not
have to wait around in hospital afterwards, other than perhaps wait for the
radiologist’s report. A boon for the busy 50-60 year old businessman (the
group most at risk). And finally, it is much cheaper than having a coronary
angiogram.
If you have no risk factors, other than being over 50, I would seriously
consider the 64-Slice CT.
Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
You keep harping on about meeting the “right” Thai women, but why would you
bother going through all the rigmarole when there are so many gorgeous babes in
any of the bars? You couldn’t get to them all with two lifetimes, not one. You
talk about learning Thai, when you don’t need to. Any of the bar girls can speak
enough English to get by. You know what you’re going to get. They know what is
expected of them. You don’t have to go upcountry to meet the parents. There’s no
dowry involved, so it is cheap. It is just so easy, when your way is just so
difficult and takes a long time. What’s the advantage?
Unconvinced
Dear Unconvinced,
It all depends on what you want in life, Petal. Do you want 365 one night stands
every year, or a constant partner for 365 days a year? The men I recommend doing
it the “so difficult” way are those who are looking for a partner in and for
life. Certainly most of the bar girls can speak “enough English to get by” as
you say. That’s enough English to say “Buy me cola,” “You want pay bar for me?”
and “I go with you.” They also have enough understanding of your needs that they
can extract motorcycles, gold chains, cars, houses for Mama and Papa and a
lifetime of veterinary care for the family buffalo. And if you don’t believe me,
read any of the back issues of this newspaper for the tales of woe from those
who have been ripped off by this week’s easy girlfriend. You strike me as being
very self-centered and a bit “keeneow” (stingy) as well.
You will also note that I have even recommended your way for men coming over
here for two weeks, and I also recommend at the same time that they don’t fall
in love and refrain from buying anything greater than trinket value.
So what’s the advantage? The chance of having a meaningful relationship, as
opposed to your meaningless ones.
Dear Hillary,
If any of your readers are wondering where to go for a change I can recommend
Udon Thani, Roi Et and Kalasin.
Fifteen minutes from the centre of Udon Thani there is a flower nursery, called
“Miss Udorn” with an amazing dancing plant, if you can play music or even sing a
song the plant opens and shuts its leaves! Then there is Ban Chiang in Udon,
where you can see the remains of one of the worlds oldest civilizations.
Roi Et has one of the tallest standing Buddha Images in the world. Eighty
kilometres from the City of Roi Et is Wat Pah Namthip. Take highways 2044 and
2136, and I guarantee it will take your breath away. Seven stories, four of
which are complete with the most beautiful decorations, it is for sure the most
beautiful Temple in Thailand.
Kalasin has the Dinosaur Museum with some of the worlds largest Dinosaur
remains. A fantastic place for young and old alike, just follow the signs to
“Jurassic Park”.
I loved Issan Hillary, the people were so nice, a lot come up to you and ask if
they can practice their English. Anyone reading this that has never been to
these places you just have to go.
One last thing Hillary, we read a lot about Farang being done out of their money
by Thai ladies. I frequent a beer bar in Chiang Mai, I know I can’t tell you the
name, but it is the Number One Bar here (wink wink nudge nudge). The young
ladies are not the pushy type pestering you to buy them a drink, but of course
you do, otherwise they would not be there, and without them you would have to
talk to a lot of boring old expats!
One of the girls met her Mr. Right, he paid her bar fine for two weeks and
promised he would return in a couple of months to marry her. She was so excited
about marrying and moving to England, well yes you guessed it, he never showed
up, even though he was sending her emails. I felt so sorry for her, but guess
she is not the only one to fall for that trick. So it does work both ways with
Farang and Thai being taken for a ride.
Oh! One last thing, the young Abbot of Wat Doi Noi Lamphun was featured in the
National Geographic Magazine, Thai Newspapers, and Channel Five TV. He was
showing off his Bio Diesel and Petro Plant and other inventions of his. I will
send you some photos of his latest inventions, Hillary.
Delboy
Dear Delboy,
How nice to hear from you again and thanks for the travel tips, and yes, we
published the details of your young abbot as well. Never mind these two bit
publications like National Geographic. They’re only found in doctor’s waiting
rooms!
Glad you brought up the item on double dealing by the farangs that come over
here. There’s probably more of those than all the quoted rip-offs by the bar
girls, with all the promises of marriage and overseas trips.
Sorry I had to shorten your letter somewhat - the usual problem of space!
Let’s go to the movies:
by Mark Gernpy
Now playing in
Pattaya
Nymph / Nangmai: Thai, Mystery/ Romance – A slow-paced,
minimalist offering with supernatural overtones from one of Thailand’s
most interesting directors, Pen-ek Ratanaruang, who gave us the
excellent Ploy in 2007. This is his seventh feature and first
horror movie, and it premiered last month in the Un Certain Regard
competition at the Cannes Film Festival – to decidedly mixed reviews.
It revolves around a relationship in trouble – the marriage of May and
Nop which seems to have nothing left but inertia to hold it together.
The two barely speak to one another, and May has been involved in an
affair with her boss for months. Signs of physical affection are still
more rare. Despite the emotional distance between them, May decides to
accompany Nop on a photography trip into a deep forest where some time
before two young men were mysteriously struck dead while attempted to
rape a woman. Nobody had ever been able to sort out what happened, but
Nop can’t help but feel a certain attraction to a tree near where the
incident occurred. Then one night he simply disappears. Eventually he
returns, but May senses he’s no longer the same man.
Ice Age 3: Dawn of the Dinosaurs: US, Animation/ Action/ Comedy/
Romance – If you enjoyed the previous two installments, you should like
this one as well, because it’s more of the same. Which is not all bad.
With the voices of Ray Romano and John Leguizamo.
Wongkamlao: Thai, Comedy – Popular comedian Mum Jokmok directs and
stars in a romantic comedy.
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen: US, Action/ Adventure/ Sci-Fi.
It’s Round 2 in Michael Bay’s film based on Hasbro’s Transformers™
action figures, as Sam Witwicky (Shia LaBeouf) again joins with the
Autobots® against their sworn enemies, the Decepticons®. You just have
to throw up your hands in surrender and disbelief! What’s the use of
fighting such a force of nature? It seems to come from director Michael
Bay’s childhood fantasies about playing with toys and blowing stuff up.
And fantasizing about the hot-looking Megan Fox. It’s really
unapologetic about delivering these fantasies. Bigger battles. Massive
explosions. A hot Megan Fox.
It’s super-intense, and bigger and longer than the original, with a high
noise level, smashing images, a loud and relentless score, everyone
yelling their lines at high speed – if this is your idea of fun, go.
I’m genuinely amazed that there is any coherence at all to the thing.
Generally negative reviews.
Up: US (Disney/Pixar), Animation/ Family – Everyone’s current
favorite, tops at the US boxoffice, and the most loved film of the year
so far! An animated fantasy adventure about a 78-year-old balloon
salesman (voiced by Ed Asner) who finally fulfills his lifelong dream of
a great adventure when he ties thousands of balloons to his house and
flies away to the wilds of South America. But his biggest nightmare has
secretly stowed away on the trip: 8-year-old Russell. Also starring
Christopher Plummer, and a speech-assisted dog. Another masterful work
of art from Pixar – an exciting, hilarious, and heartfelt adventure,
impeccably crafted and told with wit and depth. Reviews:
Universal acclaim.
Up has a cartoon playing before it, called Partly Cloudy, a
6-minute Pixar study of cartoon genius. Not too much has been made of
this very funny short, but for my money it is pure brilliance – and
without dialogue!
Drag Me to Hell: US, Horror/ Thriller – Terrific! Director Sam Raimi
is in outstanding B-movie form. Get into your horror-film frame of
mind, and go for a lot of laughs and chills. Blood-curdlingly scary and
ghoulishly funny, it’s also taut and timely. The best-reviewed horror
film in years: Universal acclaim.
Phee Tum Tim: Thai, Comedy – A goalkeeper on a Thai football team
cracks his head on a goal post and dies. Then his body is possessed by
the spirit of a transsexual who has a burning desire to see that the
Thai football team makes it to the World Cup. Shown in Thai only
with no English subtitles.
Dek Khong: Thai, Comedy/ Drama – The “King Kong Gang” is a powerful
and invincible gang that rules and terrorizes all the kids in the
kindergarten, led by a boy of such immense size that a high-school girl
who thinks he’s in high school falls for him, rendering him incapable of
leading his gang.
Terminator Salvation: The Future Begins: US/ UK, Action/ Sci-Fi –
Primarily for action junkies and gamers. If you’ve seen any of the
other three installments of The Terminator series, you know what
to expect: Plenty of chases, explosions, and great effects. Mixed or
average reviews.
Night at the Museum 2: Escape From the Smithsonian: USA/ Canada,
Action/ Comedy – If you liked the first adventure, you’ll like this one
even more – bigger, better, with fantastic special effects. In part
it’s a mild history lesson, mixed in with the foolishness. Mixed or
average reviews
|
