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Money matters:
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
Nominated for the Lorenzo Natali Prize
We are in a Depression… part 1
And I am not talking about the weather. The economists in the
world knew there was something wrong years ago but reverted to the age old tack
of get the consumer to spend and the problem will just go away. However, they
did begin to raise eyebrows when oil passed USD150 per barrel. Even the
optimists figured something was not quite right and worked out that if this was
maintained there would not be enough petrol left for everyone. Put it another
way, there is not enough oil on the planet to allow American-like consumption
for all 6.8 billion of us.
That was the first wake up call. Then came Dubai. This
seemingly Utopian ideal was seen to have little or even no risk as it had the
backing of the region’s oil. Thus, it came as a great shock to the world when
Dubai World stopped paying off its debts. After that came Greece which announced
it would not reduce its deficits and then it would…
This did not produce the headlines it should have done. In
fact, it was only the good old Wall Street Journal that pointed out there could
be further problems which are presently hidden. It also threw up this little
tidbit: If the markets could force Greece to promise to slash its deficit then
why could they not do this to other western countries like America, UK, France,
etc?
Things look grim. It is not one problem but many. It is not
just Greece and the other aforementioned countries but potentially most of the
western world. We have demographics not seen for centuries where an older
population keeps getting older and the younger generation is not keeping pace
with it; i.e., less are paying for more. Sometime soon, we will not be able to
pay for pensions and other costs that governments are continually committed to.
Let’s not stop there but continue with the realism. There is
not enough potable water in the world to go around and, as seen above, energy is
not getting any cheaper. The prices for these and other essential consumables
will keep going up.
We now a have looming catastrophe with cash as the only
people who are making any money out of the Quantitative Easing (QE) are the
bankers who are making it very difficult for people to actually get the money
required for growth. This therefore begs the question, if the hoped for recovery
is dependent of people being able to borrow what will the outcome be if the
lenders refuse to give it to you?
Before answering this let us look at the largest economy the
world has ever known. Ever since the end of World War II, America has been the
place where people buy, buy, buy. It has created wealth for the rest of the
world and most, if not all, emerging markets have counted on this to expand and
grow their manufacturing base. The same goes for resources. Over the last half
century most America has imported more resources than anyone else. What now
though? As has been seen from holiday sales results, Americans do not have the
purchasing power they once had.
It is not surprising really; it had to end sometime and with
what has happened over the last couple of years it is not a shock it has
occurred now. However, what is interesting is that the American buyer has
managed to keep buying for so long. As reported recently by Agora Finance, the
average worker in the US was earning USD325 per week in 1973. This year, when
taking inflation into account, this amount is now only USD275. So, he is earning
less but buying more? How? Credit is the word you are looking for. Americans
wanted things and when it got too expensive to make it themselves they paid
others to do it. They had more than they could dream of and are now, literally,
paying for it.
Let there be no misunderstanding: the old world is weighed
down with so much debt that it is amazing it is still standing. There can only
be two solutions to this debt and that is either depression or high inflation.
With the US government in hock to a tune of well over one hundred trillion US
Dollars you can rest assured the Fed will attempt to reduce this amount via
monetary inflation. It has to. In the last two years, monetary expansion has
gone from over USD825 billion to over USD1.9 trillion. As Bill Bonner says, “If
the Federal Reserve does not inflate away this mountain of debt, the biggest
sovereign default in history is guaranteed.”
This and also the fact the US as a country has imported more
and more and made less and less. A couple of years ago the trade gap was almost
USD900 billion. What does this mean to the rest of the world? Well, now that the
people of the emerging markets are closing the gap it could mean a lot. These
people save more and work longer hours for a lot less money. However, they are
now in a position to be able to buy more as well. This is all good for their
economies but not for America as they are also dubious about the US Dollar.
These countries have not really needed emergency QE whereas most of the old
world economies are in the process of going bankrupt. What are the politicians
doing about it? Throwing more and more money at it! This is not the answer. The
solution is unpleasant and painful but, as can be seen by what has happened in
Germany, the short, sharp agony gets it over and done with quickly and
efficiently. What to do? Cut public spending in all sectors. More of Europe
later.
That wonderful old sage Dr. Marc Faber said recently in a TV
interview that the present financial crisis has been caused by “excessive credit
growth”. Although the private sector has, generally, managed to adjust and
reduced leverage it has been overshadowed by the world’s governments non-stop
spending. Amazingly, the total credit of the American economy, as a percentage
of the US economy is still growing. Officially, when you compare now to the
Great Depression, the debt to GDP is 375%. It should be noted that in 1929, it
was only 186% and, in those days there was no Medicare, Medicaid, Freddie Mac,
Fannie Mae etc. If you include these then the debt to GDP ratio is over 600%!
This is physically impossible to maintain. If you carry on printing money then
the fiscal deficit will go up and, as mentioned above, the interest rates will
rise as well. This will mean the interest payments on the governmental debt will
mushroom and in a few years time these payments alone will be nearly 50% of US
tax revenues.
As Dr. Faber says, if they want to get out of this mess then
they will have to “monetize”, create yet more stimulus packages and this will
lead to high inflation and so reduce the standard of living.
To be continued…
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The above data and research was compiled from sources
believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its
officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above
article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any
actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For
more information please contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]
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Snap Shots: by Harry Flashman
Videography Part 2
 A
couple of weeks ago, I began with the following - I do not claim to be
an expert in shooting video, but there are certain aspects that are true
for all types of photography.
Let us begin with one very important fact. Still
photography freezes a moment in time, while video photography tells a
moving picture story. Try not to shoot ‘stills’ with a video camera and
your videos will start to look professional immediately.
Video work, however, is much like still camera work -
the results you get will depend upon your knowledge of technique, and
your ability to work out “how” to produce the images you want.
Here are a few more “rules” which can help you
produce better video. Firstly, no rule is absolute, but you should have
a good reason to break it. Having said that, let’s look at a few basics.
Just like still photography, make the subject the
‘hero’. Fill the entire screen with your important subject matter. Look
at the TV soaps if you want to see how to fill up the TV screen. Empty
space is wasted space.
Your video camera is recording ‘real’ life, and in
real life, walls are vertical, doors are upright and horizons are
horizontal. Avoid the ‘arty’ effect of strange angles. One way to do
this is to use a tripod. While tripods are very effective pieces of
equipment for still photography, I think they should almost be mandatory
for the amateur videographer.
Another area that is often neglected in the
excitement of the shoot is the background. If it is disturbing for you
while you are shooting, it will be worse for the people who will watch
your video later. Movements and bright lights, cars going past, people
walking through the scene, stopping, gawking - they are all distractions
and detractions. It is better to stop filming and move somewhere without
the confusion behind your principal subjects. You can solve most
background problems by moving the subject, the camera or changing the
angle of view. Always check the distracting background details. You
can’t get rid of them after the shot has been recorded.
Since the majority of your videos will include
people, there are a few recommendations here too. When shooting people,
place the subject’s eyes one-third down from the top of the frame no
matter the type of shot. It is that old rule of thirds again. Dead
central is dead boring!
Another shot to avoid is one with large distances
between people. Again, look at the soaps on TV. The people are really
standing much closer than they would in real life (in each other’s
personal space in fact), but if you have them a meter or so apart, you
lose ‘contact’ in the video.
You should also shoot people in full or three-quarter
profile to let the viewers see both eyes. The one eyed effect does not
look good. Again, look at TV. When two people are talking, the camera
shoots over the shoulder of person one to shoot the second person
face-on to the camera. When the first person replies, the shot is taken
the other way, over the shoulder of the second person. You can also take
shots of the person who is listening to the other speak. These are
sometimes called ‘noddies’, because the person will be nodding while
listening to the other speaker.
Video is in color and you should always remember the
impact that color has on any shot. The most important thing is that your
viewer’s attention is drawn to the most colorful areas of the scene. To
avoid visual distractions, you must be on the lookout for colorful
objects which may divert the attention of your audience. Either have the
brightest colors or lights in the shot area that is the focus of
attention, or get them right away altogether. The same rule goes for
light and dark areas on the screen. If you place a dark subject next to
a bright object, your viewers will look at the brighter area even though
the dark subject is the main center of interest.
Practice this weekend.
Modern Medicine:
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
Maintaining a well-oiled machine
Lisa Stubbs, an Australian journalist, visited my hospital in
Pattaya, which is a good example of Thailand’s health care providers, and
was moved to write the following article.
“Most blokes take better care of their cars than their
own bodywork, and often it can take a major parts failure before they
consider any regular maintenance.
“But an annual medical is just as essential to ongoing
good health as regular servicing is to the smooth running of a motor
vehicle, and combining an overseas holiday with a comprehensive check-up can
be just what the doctor ordered to maintain the male machine in peak
performance.
“Thailand is building a reputation internationally for
its preventive health care, offering comprehensive health checks that are
more like a 100,000 kilometer service than the usual ‘grease and oil change’
most Australians expect of an annual medical at their local GP.
“The tune-up at this hospital even comes with a patient
‘logbook’ – a health portfolio detailing the results of all the tests and
doctor’s advice for follow-up treatment if necessary – to take home for
future reference.
“Hospital director, Dr Pichit Kangwolkij, is seeing a
growing market for the Bangkok Hospital Pattaya’s check-up services, which
are so highly regarded that patients are now flying in from all over the
world just for an annual medical.
“An annual check-up is the best way to find out if there
are any hidden or insidious diseases, such as early stages of cancer, heart
disease, pulmonary tuberculosis, diabetes or hypertension,” he said.
“Early diagnosis and treatment will yield much better
results.”
“As growing numbers of Australians are discovering,
medical tourism offers a world of difference in health care that goes beyond
well-priced dental work and cosmetic surgery.
“For not much more than the cost of a specialist
consultation at home, the hospital will provide the sort of detailed
check-up that is usually only available to corporate high-flyers in
Australia.
“This is Rolls Royce service at a Toyota price, and in
the five-star hotel atmosphere of the hospital, awestruck Australians are
finding they get maximum mileage for their outlay.
“With all the efficiency of an Indy car pit crew, the
hospital’s highly trained medical staff can provide in one morning, and
under one roof, a series of specialist consultations and a battery of tests
that could take months to carry out in Australia.
“The most basic medical at less than $A 100 includes a
chest x-ray (this alone in Australia costs around $A 90), a physical
examination - blood pressure, pulse and vision test along with body mass
index measurement to check the patient’s weight is proportionate to his
height.
“There is also an ECG, to check the heart is ticking over
as it should, a urine test to check for diabetes and other health issues,
and a range of blood tests covering cholesterol, kidney and liver function,
and PSA levels to screen for prostate cancer.
“If snoring is an issue – and it can be more of a health
concern than simply a source of annoyance for a long-suffering partner – a
check-up might be upgraded to include a stop-off at the ear, nose and throat
specialist.
“The results of the blood tests are available in an hour
– in less time than some patients can spend sitting in their GP’s waiting
room back in Australia.
“A self-confessed ‘techno freak’, British tourist,
Michael Bailey, who underwent leading-edge SuperSight surgery to profoundly
improve his vision, found even the pre-op medical an eye opener in itself.
“In this high-tech environment, the gentle and caring
medical staff are as much a stand-out feature as the hospital’s gleaming
marble interiors and chandeliers.
“Thai people are known for their caring nature, and in
our hospital environment, patients get a double dose of care,” said Dr
Pichit.
“For those who want to return home looking as good as
they feel, the hospital offers dental services - and a range of surgical and
non-surgical cosmetic treatments, including hair transplants - at a fraction
of the cost of similar procedures in Australia.”
Thank you, Lisa, that was an Australian’s view of
services we have come to accept as “normal”, but compared to overseas,
treatments in Thailand are exceptional.
Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
I think the maid at work has taken a shine to me. Big smiles
every day, and she likes to spend time cleaning around my desk and rests her
hand on my shoulder while I am sitting there, and wants to chat with me. I
thought I might be imagining all this, but the other day I came in and my desk
had been cleaned and tidied, with a little note to say she had done it for me.
This is all very sweet, but I am happy with my Thai GF and don’t need another
one. How do I let her down gently?
Garry
Dear Garry,
All you have to do is be polite, but don’t encourage her.
When she comes to clean around your desk, get up and go to the rest room. She
will get the message without your being rude to her. You sound like a nice
person, so I can see why she would be attracted to you. Shame you’ve already got
a Thai GF, I could be tempted to clean up your desk myself.
Dear Hillary,
What do I do about my girl who won’t stop working in the bar,
even though I have offered to set her up in a nice little condo and pay her a
wage of 30,000 baht a month for the nine months I am away? I reckon it’s a
pretty good deal, but she doesn’t want it, always making excuses and then saying
we’ll talk about it next time I come over. When I say I want her out of the bar
and she doesn’t have to work, she says 30,000 isn’t enough. I’m confused. Are
they all like this? This is the best one I have ever found, but I’m stymied.
What’s the answer Hillary?
Paul
Dear Paul,
The short answer is ‘run away’ my Petal. Her feelings for
you are not the same as your feelings for her. Not all girls who work in a bar
are like this, but this one is probably more honest than many others. Rather
than take your money she has stated her preference quite plainly. For all you
know, she may already be receiving “wages” from other foreign visitors. And more
than you are offering. Not unheard of, you know!
Dear Hillary,
Once a week I have a night out with the boys at work. Usually
this means I get home in the wee small hours (2 a.m. most days) and sometimes I
am a little the worse for wear as a couple of the lads are top drinkers. My
girlfriend is starting to crack up a bit about this one night a week. I reckon
she is being unreasonable, as I used to get home even later before the
crackdowns in the past year. What can I tell her to make her see that this is
just harmless fun with the lads and is a break for me from family
responsibilities?
Glen
Dear Glen,
I want you to change roles with your girlfriend for one
night. She is going to go out with the girls from work and is going to come home
at something past two, decidedly the worse for wear. In other words, very drunk.
Are you going to sit back happily and let this happen every week? Will you
happily sit at home and not wonder where she is? Will you sit there calmly
watching TV soap operas about cheating husbands and wives and not worry (that’s
all there is on Thai TV unfortunately)? Or are you going to crack up about it?
It is only Scottish stags that are the “monarchs of the glen”. I think you
should reconsider your responsibilities to the young lady. And some people told
me that chauvinism was dead!
Dear Hillary,
I am on a long stay holiday here in Thailand, and I must say
that I have been made very welcome by everyone. After getting more than slightly
tipsy the other evening, I wonder if you could advise me on the alcohol content
of some of the local brews? During the night in question which began at 6.30
p.m. I only had four pints of Heineken Draught, followed by a couple of Tigers
and two Leos. I shared in a bottle of some white wine with my father and my
stepmother and followed that up with another two Leos. This was over six hours
but I suddenly began to feel ill and my ability on the pool table decreased so
much that my father beat me. My question is, should I have stuck to one brand,
or should I only go by the percent alcohol? As I write this, the following
morning, I have a large headache, so I need to know the answer as soon as
possible please.
Tiger (not Woods)
Dear Tiger (not Woods),
I think the headache probably came from banging your head
during the resuscitation efforts after you were pulled from the bottom of the
beer mug. You weren’t drinking the alcohol, you were drowning in it! Tell your
father to look after you a little better next time you go out. Or was there a
wager on the outcome of the pool tournament? As they say, “Age, experience and
animal cunning beat youth and enthusiasm any day!”
Let’s go to the movies:
by Mark Gernpy
Now playing in Pattaya
Shutter Island: US, Drama/
Mystery/ Thriller – It’s been a long, torturous trail getting “Shutter
Island” into the cinemas here, but I think it’s very much worth it.
However, I’m pretty much alone in this. I am just very fond of the film,
that’s all there is to it. I have to warn you that a great number of
people seem to dislike this film immensely. I think the difference in
views is partly due to expectations. If you go hoping to see another
great gritty Martin Scorsese film in the tradition of “The Departed”,
you will not like it at all. Here he’s just having fun with an old film
tradition – scary goings-on in a lonely island hospital for the
criminally insane, with crazy people all around and frightening things
happening in the middle of lightning storms. Within this framework,
Scorsese is taking great joy in playing with his audience’s
expectations, leading us all on a merry chase full of deceptions. With
Leonardo DiCaprio, Ben Kingsley, and Max von Sydow (how can you go wrong
with a cast like that!). Rated R in the US for disturbing violent
content, language, and some nudity; 18+ in Thailand. Generally favorable
reviews.
Here’s the plot, more or less, for this fun horror
fantasy: It’s 1954, and an up-and-coming US marshal (DiCaprio) is
assigned to investigate the disappearance of a patient from Boston’s
Shutter Island Hospital. He’s been pushing for an assignment on the
island for personal reasons, but before long he wonders whether he
hasn’t been brought there as part of a twisted plot by hospital doctors,
whose radical treatments range from unethical to illegal to downright
sinister. As a hurricane cuts off communication with the mainland,
dangerous criminals escape in the confusion, and as the puzzling,
improbable clues multiply, he begins to doubt everything - his memory,
his partner, even his own sanity.
Hurt Locker: US, Action, Drama, Thriller,
War – Simply one of the best motion pictures. Not to be missed under any
circumstances. Well deserving of its six Oscars. Almost unbearably
tense, and a shattering account of a US bomb disposal squad in Iraq. My
overwhelming cry at the end of the film: Americans, get out of there! At
Pattaya Beach only. If you only see one picture this year, this should
be it. Rated R in the US for war violence and language. Reviews:
Universal acclaim.
Robin Hood: (Scheduled, but who knows?) US,
Action/ Adventure – Ridley Scott’s long-brewing visit to Sherwood’s most
famous forest make it clear this reboot isn’t Errol Flynn in green
tights but a Robin Hood that’s much more a gladiator. Bringing him to
life is Russell Crowe – all grunting and scowling. It’s something of an
origin story, finding historical context in the legend by telling of
Hood’s days as an archer in the service of King Richard, before he
became a man in tights redistributing the crown’s wealth. No reviews
yet.
The Bounty Hunter: (Scheduled) US, Action/ Comedy
– Gerard Butler plays a down-on-his-luck bounty hunter who gets his
dream job when he is assigned to track down his bail-jumping ex-wife
(Jennifer Aniston). Complications, as they say, ensue ... Generally
unfavorable reviews.
A Nightmare on Elm Street: (Scheduled) US,
Fantasy/ Horror/ Thriller – Critics have not been kind to this remake,
saying that it lives up to its title in the worst possible way. They say
it’s visually faithful but lacking the depth and subversive twists that
made the original so memorable. Rated R in the US for strong bloody
horror violence, disturbing images, terror, and language. Generally
unfavorable reviews.
Iron Man 2: US, Action/ Adventure/ Sci-Fi/
Thriller – A wild and lavish film that’s a lot of fun. The wonderful
actor Robert Downey Jr. again plays the role of Tony Stark, the wealthy
playboy whose exploits as Iron Man are now public knowledge after his
admission at the close of the first film. Stark is under pressure from
the government, the press, and the public to share his advanced
technology with the military, but he is unwilling to give away too much.
Mixed or average reviews. Thai-dubbed at Big C.
Ong-Bak 3: Thai, Action – The amazingly athletic
and artistic Tony Jaa in the historical martial-arts conclusion of the
two-part prequel to the “Ong-Bak” movie that made him a star in 2003.
Kheaw Ar-Khad / The Intruder: Thai, Horror/
Suspense – It’s payback time when hundreds of cobras attack residents of
an apartment that was built on their breeding ground. The story goes
that when the film was in production last year, two of the actors were
actually bitten by the snakes. Maybe they were trying to tell us
something.
The Hole 3D: US, Horror/ Thriller – A pair of
brothers stumble upon a mysterious hole in their basement that leads to
the darkest corridors of their fears and nightmares. By director Joe
Dante (“Gremlins”). In 3D, and at Pattaya Beach only. Too new for
any reviews yet.
Date Night: US, Action/ Comedy/ Romance – In New
York City, a case of mistaken identity turns a bored married couple’s
attempt at a glamorous and romantic evening into something more
thrilling and dangerous. Starring Steve Carell and Tina Fey. Mixed or
average reviews.
9 Wat / Secret Sunday: Thai, Suspense/ Horror – A
young man unwillingly takes a journey to visit nine different temples in
order to clean up his bad karma, accompanied by his girlfriend and a
young monk. During the journey horrifying acts done in their previous
lives come back to haunt them. Rated 18+ in Thailand. At Major Cineplex
only.
Clash of the Titans: UK/ US, Action/ Adventure/
Fantasy – I didn’t find this film any sillier for our time than
the 1981 Ray Harryhausen adventure starring Laurence Olivier was for its
time. I guess it depends on the mood you’re in. Generally unfavorable
reviews. At Pattaya Beach only, in 2D now.
Green Zone: France/ US/ Spain/ UK, Action/ Drama/
Thriller/ War – Courageous director Paul Greengrass takes on the Bush
and Blair Administrations as he reminds us all, very forcefully, that
there never were “Weapons of Mass Destruction” in Iraq and those
governments knew it, and the whole fiction was created as an excuse to
go to war. Starring Matt Damon as a US Army officer who hunts for the
elusive WMD and finds only an elaborate cover-up. Rated R in the US for
violence and language, 18+ in Thailand. Generally favorable reviews. At
Major Cineplex only.
Edge of the Empire / Kon Tai Ting Pandin: Thai,
Action/ Drama – Inspired by legendary Thai heroes in southern Mongolia
over 1,000 years ago who sacrificed their lives to fight against an
invasion by the Han tribe. These “Tai” were supposedly the forefathers
of the present-day Thais. 18+ in Thailand. At Big C only, with
English subtitles.
Saranae Sib Lor: Thai, Adventure/ Comedy – With
Mario Maurer of “Love of Siam” fame, playing a young man whose father
suspects he’s gay and is sent off on a road trip in an old 10-wheel
truck to learn how to become a man. Does that sort of thing work? At
Major Cineplex only.
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