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Money matters:
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
Nominated for the Lorenzo Natali Prize
Does more risk mean more money? Part 2
(Figure 1)
Portfolios should be designed to reflect what the client
actually needs and what access, if any, is required to money. If an income is
needed then it is very important to make plans built around a worse case
scenario. If you look at the first graph (Figure 1) this shows that Fred is a
fifty five year old man who wants to retire in ten years time. He has one
million US dollars in assets and earns USD80,000 per annum after all deductions
but spends USD74,000 of it each year. In this case we see Fred has what is
considered to be a typical balanced fund allocation with 28% in cash and fixed
interest vehicles and 72% in equities.
If things turn out well then, in an optimistic or even
average situation, Fred will live well. However, if things do not go according
to plan and the worse case scenario prevails Fred will not have enough income to
last his lifetime.
(Figure 2)
How can this be? Is it because Fred has taken too much risk
or not enough? What can he do? Cut back on the quality of his lifestyle or take
even more risk? Actually, this would be the worst possible solution. As can be
seen from the second graph (Figure 2), if changes are made whilst keeping
spending the same then whilst increasing risk improves the mean and optimistic
state of affairs it also affects the pessimistic one as well - and not in a good
way. This should be quite obvious to anyone as the more risk is taken the
greater the possibility of different outcomes can be.
However, things need not be so. If Fred actually plans for
the pessimistic option he will achieve all his goals and, possibly even more. As
the third set of figures show, Fred can carry on taking his income of USD74,000
if he goes with a balanced/cautious approach as designed by a multi-manager,
multi-asset portfolio, but he cannot do this if he takes a more aggressive or
even more cautious approach.
P1 = 76% defensive assets (cash and tier 1 fixed interest), 24% risky assets
(tier 2 fixed interest, equities, and property); P2 = 68% defensive assets, 32%
risky assets; P3 = 46% defensive assets, 54% risky assets; P4 = 28% defensive
assets, 72% risky assets; P5 = 10% defensive assets, 90% risky assets.
It is important here to emphasise what is good for one client
is not always good for another. For example, age is an important factor. Let us
look at Harold who is in the same situation as Fred but is only forty years old.
The amount of money spent per annum is changed in our pessimistic picture until
the red line goes to nothing when the planned age of life expectancy is reached
- 93 years old. The income and spending allowed is prudent and will allow both
clients to have almost complete confidence there will be always be money for
them whilst they are alive.
If we look at the last box we can see that if almost no risk
is taken then the amount of money available to spend is not actually enough as
it only reaches USD72,000. However, by taking the optimal level of risk whilst
maintaining a proper level of caution, the desired amount of USD74,000 is
achieved. If the risk ratio is increased, and the worse case scenario happens
then the amount of money that can be spent each year may only be as little as
USD51,000.
Another factor which is seen is that age is important. Harold
could be slightly more aggressive if he wanted to be but then he has age on his
side. However, if he was still cautious then the mount of annual returns is not
affected greatly. Despite this it is very important not to gamble with what is
basically your future.
To go back to the beginning of this article, it is very
important people realise equities are not the be and end all of investments.
They can perform poorly both in the short and long term. Only by creating a
portfolio which will perform in all market conditions will a client get what is
wanted from his investment.
What is also critical when building a portfolio is
understanding that each and every person is different and nobody’s circumstances
are the same. However, as can be seen from above, it is actually possible to
provide clients with more income by having a more conservative portfolio than
they may have believed possible.
This is particularly relevant to people the older they get.
This is done by creating a flexible investment strategy that has no loyalty to
any particular asset class and, as stated above, taking the multi-manager,
multi-asset class alpha management approach as practised by Scott Campbell and
his team at MitonOptimal Guernsey.
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The above data and research was compiled from sources
believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its
officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above
article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any
actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For
more information please contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]
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Snap Shots: by Harry Flashman
Photographing stage performers
 Stage
photography is an exciting and different application of the art of
photography. The results can be spectacular and make for wall art. But
this type of end result does not come easily, and much forward planning
is necessary.
With live theatre and stage performances you have
some very difficult composition and lighting problems to contend with if
nothing else. You cannot quite ask someone in the middle of the Swan
Lake ballet to move a couple of steps to the left and say “Cheese”.
The lighting, too, is quite different from that you
normally experience. Stage lighting is generally tungsten based and
sharp (what we call “spectral” lighting). Spots for the performers and
floods for the background are the hallmarks of the usual stage lighting.
The use of spots in particular is used to highlight the principal
performer or action on stage, and the lighting technician will follow
the performer’s movements, as he knows where the principal dancer is
going to move towards. Unfortunately, you don’t!
Successful “stage” photographs are ones that have
managed to retain that “stagey” lighting feel to them, so that instantly
you look at the image you know it is of a performer on a stage
somewhere. Remember that as a photographer you are recording events,
people and places as they happen. You are a mirror of the world!
The secret of retaining that stage feel is definitely
in the lighting. Because it tends to be dark, we all break out the
super-pro flash gear, or activate the in-built flash that comes with the
camera. Unfortunately, the pro-flash gear can overpower the stage lights
and you lose the effect. All you get is someone dressed in strange garb,
flash-lit at night. Not Othello at all! On the other hand, the simple
inbuilt flash just won’t carry the distance from seat 15E to the stage.
Here’s what to do. Reset the camera’s ISO to 800 ASA
if you can, but 400 ASA will do at a pinch. This is to allow for
handholding the camera in the stage situation.
The next tip - leave the flash in the bag, or turn it
off at the camera. Now I know it is dark, but you are trying to retain
the stage lighting effects. In other words, you are going to let the
stage’s lighting technician be the source of light for your photograph
too. With some point and shoot cameras this is actually quite difficult
to do, but if in doubt, read the instruction manual (see last week’s
column).
Tip number 3 - get as close to the action as you can.
Now I know the pro photographers get to walk right up on stage, shoot
the performer clean in the eye and shuffle off stage left. You will
probably be thrown out on your ear if you try it (also stage left), so
please don’t. However, get a seat as close to the action as you can, and
then select a lens that can allow you to fill the frame with the
performers. Shots that show an entire dark stage with two tiny little
people spot lit in front are not good stage shots. In fact they are not
good anything shots! If all you have is a fixed lens point and shooter,
get as close to the front of the stage as you can. You can still get the
scene stopping shot - you have just to get very close. OK? For practice,
go to the Malibu Cabaret (back to the corner of Second Road and Soi Post
Office) as you can get very close there.
Now then, as far as f stops and the like are
concerned - if you are confident in these things, then monitor for the
central subject. If you are unsure, just set the camera on “Auto” - with
the 400 ASA pre-selected as there will be enough light to run the “auto”
settings.
So there you are. Get close, use high ASA numbers and no flash. The
Malibu Cabaret is as a good place to start. You can practically sit on
the stage and the performers will even “stop” the action for you! Have
fun.
Modern Medicine:
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
Smoking reduces the risk of Dementia?
In the Pattaya Mail of late there has been much debate
in the Reader’s Letters page over smoking. I have zealously resisted the
chance to hop into the minefield, and it certainly seems that the same old
names are there week after week. While much of the debate is whether or not
sidestream smoke is dangerous for the individuals in that environment, it
also encompasses whether smokers have any “rights” and many will justify
their “choice” saying that it hurts nobody but themselves.
I am not joining the debate, as it is usually a pointless
exercise, as many of you have already found. But perhaps the following may
be of interest when looking at the arguments put forward.
The smokers amongst you will have seized on that headline
and are now voraciously reading this item, in the hope that you have some
evidence to throw in the face of those who would point the finger at all
smokers.
As reported in the British Medical Journal, a publication
not known for wild and extravagant claims, researchers investigated claims
that smoking enhances memory, vigilance, attention and reduces the risk of
Dementia.
Now, when the British Medical Journal (BMJ) publishes
results, the author has been checked for his or her bona fides, and the
results are also checked by independent specialists. When the BMJ publishes
something, it is authoritative.
In the article ‘Long term smoking contributes to
cognitive decline’, the study was based on about 500 men and women who were
all born in 1936 and who had taken part in the same IQ survey in 1947, and
who had agreed to be re-examined at the age of about 64 between 2000 - 2002
to measure any decline.
In essence, what the researchers did, was to look at the
IQ score of the 500 people when they were 11 years old, and then compare the
scores at age 64. It was found that many factors were involved, including
education, occupation, lung function and smoking.
The authors, from universities at Aberdeen and Edinburgh,
reported in a paper in Addictive Behaviors, “Current smokers and non-smokers
had significantly different mental test scores at age 64. This difference
remained after adjustment for childhood IQ,” said the authors.
Now comes the crunch line. “After adjustment for
childhood IQ, a positive smoking history was associated with lower
performance on tests of psychomotor speed and on a composite score derived
from five cognitive tests,” says the report. “There were no differences in
IQ at age 11 by smoking status, but by age 64, current smokers were
performing less well on cognitive tests than non-smokers and former smokers.
Psychomotor speed was lower in smokers.”
After taking every other variable factor into
consideration, the research debunked the claims that smoking enhances
memory, vigilance, attention and reduces the risk of Dementia. In fact, it
was quite the reverse. Quoting directly from the report in the BMJ, “We
conclude that long term smoking does not produce long term cognitive
benefits; to the contrary, smoking makes a small but significant
contribution to cognitive decline from age 11 to 64.”
The authors added, “The data obtained here suggest that
about 5.7 percent of the variance in cognitive function at age 64 is
attributable to the effects of education and occupation after adjustment for
IQ at age 11. Thereafter, small but significant negative contributions
amounting to no more than about 4 percent are made by a combination of
smoking and impaired lung function acting both together and alone. Although
negative effects on cognition are relatively small in terms of a single
individual, these effects are important at the population level. As a
lifestyle choice, they are open to modification and thereby to enhancement
of retention of cognitive function.”
This research has shown that you can expect a slow
deterioration in your mental function, but if you remain interested in life
and continue your education, have an interesting job and don’t smoke, you
have every chance of still being on the ball when you turn 64.
But as a smoker, you will have reduced your mental
capacity by 10 percent. Now while 10 percent doesn’t sound much, in the IQ
stakes, it means a lot!
Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
I have just returned from another long and enjoyable stay in
‘sunny’ Thailand but I just cannot rest happy. At the end of a row of small
bars/restaurants, opposite the Asia Hotel on Soi 4 Pratamnak adjacent to the
last building are two cages housing two foxes in the most abject and deplorable
conditions. The poor animals can barely stand up nor turnaround and just lay in
their excrement suffering in the heat with barely any water. What were once
beautiful animals now have filthy matted coats and they always appear to be
starving.
During my time living nearby, myself and a Swiss gentleman
would regularly visit them with food and water. From enquiries made with a lady
living in the building next door to the foxes’ cages it would appear that the
foxes were transported to Pattaya from Loie in Northern Thailand by a man who
intended to farm them for profit, but he has since lost interest in them.
The sad plight of these animals has since caused me
nightmares (and shame) that I did not do more for them. I am hoping that with
your contacts and obvious kind and compassionate heart that you can do something
to help these poor and unfortunate animals. (I shall reward you with the best
Belgian chocolates on my return!)
Chris J.
Dear Chris J,
This really isn’t my role, but with the thought of Belgian
chocolates on the horizon, and after hiding my faux fox stole in the closet, I
will try to contact any animal refuge groups to see if they can help, but
generally they are over-run with stray dogs, and not foxes. It would not be
possible to just take them to the nearest temple, as what happens with a lot of
the excess dog populations. Foxes and chickens do not make for good neighbors. I
will also place an abridged version of your letter in the Reader’s Letters page
for you, which I think might get a better response than the agony aunt’s readers
letters.
Dear Hillary,
This is a serious question. Why are all Thai women addicted
to sales? My Thai GF cannot walk past a shop which has a “sale” sign without
going in and if it has a two for one deal she’s sold, even though we don’t need
it or already have one (from the last sale). I have spoken to mates and they all
say the same, so is it something that’s taught in Thai schools or what? Or is it
the bowerbird complex that women have in general and Thai women have it in big
degrees?
Thom
Dear Thom,
No, Petal, the addiction to sales is not taught in schools
because it is already in the genetic make-up of all Thai women, so it is more
like an inbuilt bowerbird complex as you say. All it needs to trigger the
response is the smell of farang money. Like Pavlov’s dogs that would run when a
bell was rung, Thai women run to the shops when shown a full wallet. The two for
one deal shows just how she is being frugal and looking after your interests and
money (so there is still some left for tomorrow’s sales). You should be
thankful. By the way, get her to let me know when the next sale is on.
Dear Hillary,
I come over to Thailand at least three times a year for one
month at a time and I have now got a steady girlfriend for the last two times.
She waits for me and goes up to the village in between times and comes down to
meet me at the airport. She is now asking me to buy a house which she says would
be for us both when I come over, rather than getting hotel rooms each time. I
can sort of see the logic in this, but it looks expensive to me. I’m told that I
cannot own the house either, which seems pretty silly, but if that’s the rules,
that’s the rules. Have you any experience in these things, Hillary? I don’t want
to lose this girlfriend, but my friends all tell me that this is a dangerous
situation. Just how dangerous, and in what way?
Jock
Dear Jock,
That’s a good Scottish name, so I can see why you want to
keep a tight rein on the expenses. The person you should be referring this
question to is a real estate agent, and there are some honest ones in town. It
is correct that you cannot own land in your own name as a foreigner, but there
are many ways around this issue. However, you can own a condominium (flat) in
your own name, and since you are only going to be here three months a year, that
would seem the better option to me in many ways. Be real, Jock ma wee Scottish
petal, you hardly know this gurrl at all, so it is far too early to be talking
about buying hoosses. Would you do this after two months with a bonnie Scottish
lassie? Slow down. Enjoy her company when you are here, but keep your sporran
tightly locked!
Let’s go to the movies:
by Mark Gernpy
Now playing in Pattaya
Toy Story & Toy Story 2 (3D):
US, Animation/ Family – Still not playing in Pattaya as of Wednesday,
but perhaps it started yesterday. If so, see them. They are two of the
best films of the 90s, in a lot of people’s opinion, and here’s your
chance to see these two terrific genre-changing Pixar films in a theater
with an audience, as you should, and with a nice 3D added. Though added
in postproduction, this 3D process really seems to work. I just saw
Toy Story 2, and I loved it! With the voices of Tom Hanks, Tim
Allen, Don Rickles, and many others. Reviews: Universal acclaim,
individually, and as a package. Only in 3D, so that means only at
Pattaya Beach, if playing at all.
Inception: (Scheduled) US/ UK, Drama/
Mystery/ Sci-Fi/ Thriller – Has garnered a raft of ecstatic reviews, and
sounds at the very least like a not-to-be-missed event. Starring
Leonardo DiCaprio in what has been lauded as another outstanding
state-of-the-art acting job . It’s written, directed, and produced by
Christopher Nolan, so it’s his baby entirely, and it’s been called a
worthy successor to his memorable Memento. About controlling a
person through messing with his dreams. Early reviews: Universal
acclaim.
I Love You Phillip Morris: France/ US, Comedy/
Drama – A bit raunchy in its language at times, and a theme that won’t
please everyone, but I think it’s a terrific love story, even if the
love dare not speak its name. Actually, they do speak its name here – in
fact they shout about gay love from the rooftops, and sing about it in
the jail cells. Basically, this is the story of a scam artist (Jim
Carrey) and his love for Phillip Morris (Ewan McGregor), with whom he
fell in love during a prison sentence. If you have mixed feelings about
Jim Carrey, give him a break on this one. I think he’s really good.
Rated R in the US for sexual content including strong dialogue, and
language; 18+ in Thailand. Generally favorable reviews. Hopefully it’s
still playing – if so, probably only at Pattaya Beach. Highly
recommended.
The Twilight Saga: Eclipse: US, Fantasy/ Romance/
Thriller – The gang is back again! Or should it be “the pack”? In this
episode, Bella is forced to choose between her love for Edward
(heartthrob Robert Pattinson, a vampire) and her friendship with Jacob
(heartthrob Taylor Lautner, member of the Quileute Wolfpack) – knowing
that her decision has the potential to ignite the struggle between
vampire and wolfpack, and a tissy fit between fans of each. Mixed or
average reviews. Thai-dubbed at Big C.
Despicable Me (3D): (Scheduled) US,
Animation/ Family – This first film from a new animation shop set up at
Universal captures much of what one likes about Pixar cartoons, but with
a bit of a European sensibility. Though it’s an American story, it was a
Spanish animator’s idea, and realized by a French animation house. It’s
funny, clever, and filled with memorable characters, all about a super
villain, voiced by Steve Carell, who is planning the biggest heist in
the history of the world: he’s going to steal the moon. Three little
orphan girls challenge his plans. Generally favorable reviews. Probably
at Pattaya Beach only.
Predators: US, Action/ Adventure/ Sci-Fi/ Thriller
– I enjoyed this! Of its type, I thought it quite superior. I was
impressed by the fun the actors seemed to be having with their
characters (Lawrence Fishburne especially giving a deliciously-chewed
performance!). I thought the photography was striking, the mood nicely
tense and forbidding, and the music fascinating! I’m not a particular
fan of this sort of action film, but I found it quite entertaining.
Starring Adrien Brody, and directed by Hungarian filmmaker Nimrod Antal
(Kontroll). Rock-solid, old-school thrills. Mixed or average
reviews. Big C also has a Thai-dubbed version.
Knight and Day: US, Action/ Comedy/ Thriller – The
film where Tom Cruise gets to be charming again, after a considerable
absence. And he is, with charisma to spare. I found it pleasantly
amusing, as much a cute rom-com as an action flick. Mixed or average
reviews. Thai-dubbed at Big C.
The Karate Kid: US/ China, Action/ Drama/ Family/
Sport – Even worse than I had imagined. Filmed in Beijing
emphasizing tourism sites, which the Chinese required; turns out that’s
the best part. Generally favorable reviews. Thai-dubbed at Big C.
The A-Team: US, Action/ Adventure/ Thriller –
A big-screen version of the TV series, which captures the
superficial and noisy spirit of the original. There were actually spots
I enjoyed, here and there between the noisy action scenes. A group of
Iraq War veterans looks to clear their name with the US military, who
suspect the four men of committing a crime – they were actually framed.
Going “rogue,” the colorful team utilizes their unique talents to try
and clear their names and find the true culprits. Starring Liam Neeson
and Jessica Biel. Rated 18+. Mixed or average reviews. Not at Big C.
Sorry Saranghaeyo: Thai/ South Korea, Comedy/
Romance – A Thai woman is obsessed with Korean styles and one Korean
heartthrob and convinces her sister to travel to South Korea to saturate
herself with all things Korean. Directed by Poj Arnon (Bangkok Love
Story (2007)), who says that this is his first film about a man and
woman in love. He’s known for his Katoey comedies and gay love
stories.
Prince of Persia: US, Action/ Adventure/ Fantasy/
Romance – An old-style Arabian Nights story, set in medieval Persia when
a nefarious nobleman (a deliciously villainous Ben Kingsley) covets the
Sands of Time, a magical dagger that allows its possessor to turn back
time. Starring Jake Gyllenhaal and a quite appealing Gemma Arterton.
Mixed or average reviews. Pattaya Beach only, if still playing.
Staying happy in Paradise - the Counseling Corner
Frustration in the bedroom: Impotence
Richard L. Fellner
Erectile dysfunction (ED) is defined by the inability
of a man to maintain an erection sufficient for intercourse in more than
two-thirds of the attempts during half a year. So if it only ‘doesn’t
work’ now and then, it isn’t a disorder requiring treatment. But with
age, more men have to deal with ED: only one in ten 40 to 49-year-old
men is affected, but among 60 to 69-year-olds it is at least one in
three.
Especially in older men, physical conditions often
cause or at least contribute to ED, while in men under 55, there are
almost always mental triggers. ‘Magic bullets’ like Viagra are therefore
not really advisable for this younger group of men, not only out of the
possible adverse consequences of long-term use, but also for the risk of
a psychological dependency on the ‘power pill’.
As an ED can be indicative of heart, cardiovascular
and other serious diseases, a medical checkup is the first thing to do.
If no physical causes can be found, however, a few counseling sessions
with a sex therapist can often set a new pace. ‘I feel incredibly
liberated,’ a client once said at the end of our sessions. Indeed,
trying to improve their ‘sexual fitness’, many men can give new and more
positive impetus to their own sexuality. For what could be more fair in
sex than Men’s Lib?
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Live the happy life you planned! Richard
L. Fellner is head of the Counseling Center Pattaya in Soi
Kopai and offers consultations in English and German
languages after making appointments at 0854 370 470. |
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