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Money matters:
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
Nominated for the Lorenzo Natali Prize
Can the Past help with the Future? Part 1
Books of quotations are full of it:
- “The only unknown is the history that you have not yet
read” – President Harry S. Truman
- “It is my experience of the past that unveils the future to
me” – Napoleon
- “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat
it” – George Santayana
- “If men could learn from history, what lessons it might
teach us!” – S.T. Coleridge
As regular readers of this column are well aware, I do
believe in history and that you can use it to help with the future. Yes, people
like me always cover their backsides with such statements as, “Past performance
is not a guide to future performance and the value of investments can rise as
well as fall.” This will usually be found stuck away in the small print of any
financial brochure as well.
However, without doubt, financial markets are cyclical and if
you read about what has happened before in economic history then you can learn
from it.
For instance, there is a good argument to be had by stating
that America is now where Britain was one hundred years ago. Back then Britain
ruled the waves and thought it was king of the world’s financial markets. The
United States thinks the same today. However, no empire, whether military or
financial lasts forever - just as the Romans or Lehmans did not.
However, when compared to Great Britain, the United States of
America is a young country, and like all of those with the exuberance of youth
does not to pay much attention to the lessons of history. This is a shame. They
would learn a lot. Yes, it would be difficult. Yes, it could be brutal. But it
would be worth it. As stated above, no power goes on in perpetuity. Countries
and companies along with those that run them can become fat and lazy. Discipline
goes out the window and they look for a quick fix to make everything look right.
As Bill Bonner put it recently, “Economic and political vulnerability go hand in
hand. Remember, without a strong economy, a nation’s international standing,
standard of living, national security, and even its domestic tranquility will
suffer over time.”
Some Americans suffer from the same blind ignorance and
arrogance that us British did a hundred years ago when we thought the sun would
never set on the empire. Well, we got that well wrong and, unless there is a
radical change of thought this will happen to the USA over the next decade or
so. Actually, you only have to go back less than twenty years to see the demise
of one economic system and that was the end of the Soviet empire. There is
constant evolution in this world and we must face up to change or perish by not
doing so.
We know the world of finance and running businesses can be
vicious. Like countries and empires they come and go as well. Just look at the
companies which were in the first Dow Jones index in 1896. There were a dozen of
them and, it was believed at the time, they would be operating until the end of
days. Well, 114 years later, only General Electric remains. If America cannot
learn from this then what can it learn from? They will go the way of Rome,
Britain and all the other global powerhouses of the last two thousand years.
To continue with the comparison between the UK and the US, at
the start of the 20th Century, Britain was seen as the only real global
superpower and, because of this, was expected to be the world’s policeman. It
was happy to fulfill this role until World War I came along and basically
bankrupted the country. Fortunately for the world the US was there to step into
the breach and has continued to be the benign protector ever since - although
some do say that comes at a pretty steep price. The question is though, for how
much longer? Britain’s role came to an end due to exterior forces. Maybe the US
can better be compared to Rome which eventually collapsed for various reasons
such as sloth, decline in moral standards, an army and navy no longer capable of
doing its job, loss of control of its national borders and the complete
disintegration of fiscal control by the senate (government). Does this sound
familiar?
More comparisons are there for all to see if they would only
look at them. A world power which relies on another nation or nations for its
financial well being is prone to vulnerability. This can be seen when the UK and
French went into Suez in 1956. The then Soviet Union said it would come in on
the side of the Egyptians thus turning a local affair into a potential Third
World War. America did not want this and as they still controlled the large
majority of both British and French foreign debt told the two countries to
withdraw because, if they did not, the US would sell off its holdings in their
currencies which basically meant they would be worthless. Britain and France got
out of Egypt as quickly as they could.
Whilst it is true that the US Dollar has never been
threatened in such a way, it has become more and more vulnerable over the last
twenty years with Middle Eastern countries and China buying the Greenback in
quantities that has never before been seen. If they all decided to sell at the
same time this would inevitably mean a massive exodus from the US Dollar on a
global basis. This, in turn, would lead to a huge drop in its value as well as
much higher interest rates.
America may well cope with this scenario if it ever actually
came to pass. After all, it has coped with the Great Depression of the 1930s,
the oil problems of the 1970s and what happened only a couple of years ago. The
question lies in will they be able to deal with any future challenges.
To be continued…
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The above data and research was compiled from sources
believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its
officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above
article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any
actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For
more information please contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]
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Snap Shots: by Harry Flashman
Is this the end of the SLR?
A
few years ago now, I not only wrote about the so-called ‘Bridge’
cameras, but I bought one as well. A still camera that could go from 35
mm to 410 mm, all in one lens. Image stabilization, instant image
display, and even limited video performance and all the usual bells and
whistles. Apart from a shutter delay which makes sports action shots
difficult (but not impossible) and an on-camera flash which has about as
much fire power as the average match, I have been very happy with it.
However, the DSLR group continues to be the best seller.
This was radical at one time!
But all that is going to change, as has been
demonstrated by Canon at the World Expo 2010 in Shanghai, with their
provocatively named “Wonder Camera” concept. This camera was the star of
the show as far as photography was concerned, and was Canon’s idea of
what your camera will be like in 20 years time, and its capabilities.
It was not a ‘super DSLR’, in fact, quite the
opposite, being more akin to today’s bridge cameras, but even more close
to a video camera idea with still image capture.
The lens capability exceeds my 35 - 410 mm by far,
with this concept camera going from macro to 5,000 mm with the one lens.
With our current technology, even if we could make a 5,000 mm lens, it
would be the size of a small bazooka, and weigh something that it would
take a top ranked weightlifter to take out of the camera bag. And it
would need a camera capable of 1/5000th of a
second shutter speed to provide a reasonably sharp image. And it would
be necessary to mount the camera on a tripod similar to the Sydney
Harbor Bridge. With our current state of the art equipment, it would
require several lenses.
What makes this camera even more amazing, is that it
is claimed that a tripod is not necessary - you can hand-hold at 5,000
mm and the camera’s image stabilization system keeps everything sharp.
That is certainly way beyond the ability of any of the current image
stabilization systems in use. Canon admits that this is not currently
possible, but Canon believes that within 20 years it will be. With the
advances in phone technology in the past 20 years, this does not take
too much of a leap of imagination, does it?
So far, I have been just looking at this concept as
an extension of a bridge camera, but that is not correct either. It is
actually a very high resolution video camera, which allows for very high
resolution still image capture.
We are told that everything in the frame is kept in
focus, and so any still image is also in focus, and that includes just
using part of the screen image. Currently we do have still image capture
but it does not give sharp quality images. But then, Canon says that in
two decades, they will have the technology that will be able to do it.
The concept camera also shows no buttons or dials and
instead, looks to be operated by a large touchscreen, which is only
radical through its size.
This new concept is then not a DSLR, nor is it a
bridge camera. In many ways, it is more akin to a television broadcast
camera in its zoom capabilities, but without the need for a lens the
size of a bazooka or a video style tripod. Canon, however, are
suggesting that this will be a consumer level camera, which would mean
that the SLR concept will not continue. When one ‘super’ lens will do
the job of several, who will stick to the old SLR systems?
What has to be remembered, however, is that this
camera is still just a concept. The abilities demonstrated at the World
Expo 2010 in Shanghai does not mean that Canon can do everything the
concept hinted at. By leaning heavily on current technology and mating
it with WiFi capture, it is then possible to simulate what this concept
might be able to achieve in two decades. The future looks exciting.
Modern Medicine:
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
Dengue Fever - once more!
Aedes aegypti, the mosquito which carries the Dengue
virus is here again. With a vengeance.
At the time of writing this column, there are five
westerners in my hospital with Dengue Fever. This is not an isolated group
that caught it from drinking out of damp glasses in the same bar. The actual
figures for Thailand are 32 deaths and 29,432 cases so far this year. Last
year, there were 180 cases in Northern Thailand alone and 10 fatalities.
That’s more than died from the dreaded SARS epidemic that had people
cringing in their homes afraid to go out without a gas mask.
So, despite my previous pleas (and those of the Public
Health Department), Dengue Fever and its potentially fatal variant, Dengue
Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) is still with us. The latest figures have now
prompted me to repeat my advice on this subject. If you remember reading
about it before, I apologize, but the subject matter is very important. This
is an important ailment that can be avoided.
However, first you should understand a little more about
Dengue. It was first described in 1780 by a Benjamin Rush in Philadelphia
(so it didn’t start here) when the name Break Bone Fever was applied, with
the symptoms of pain in the bones and rise in temperature. The name “Dengue”
came in 1828 during an epidemic in Cuba. The new name was a Spanish attempt
at a Swahili phrase “ki denga pepo” which describes a sudden cramping
seizure caused by an evil spirit! Let me assure you that the local brand of
Dengue Fever owes nothing to spirits, evil, bottled or otherwise.
Like Malaria, the virus is carried by mosquitoes, this
time by one called Aedes aegypti. The virus itself is related to
Japanese encephalitis, Murray Valley encephalitis and Yellow fever, and
there are four “serotypes” or subgroups of it.
The mosquito lays its eggs in water containers,
preferring the clean water found in water tanks and pots, in the saucers
under pot plants and even under the pet’s food dish. Inside discarded car
tyres is another favorite spot. These mosquitoes are not of the adventurous
type and feed during the day and spend their time within 200 meters of their
hatchery. Consequently, the eradication of any local breeding areas becomes
very important towards maintaining your own health, as you can see. Keep
your home free from lying water for a radius of 200 meters and you’re
looking good!
Simple Dengue (if you can call it that) has an incubation
period of around four to seven days and then the full blown symptoms of high
fever and headache begin. The headache is usually behind the eyes and is
made worse by eye movement. From there the pains progress to the limbs with
acute muscle pains, which gave it the old name “Break Bone Fever”.
Interestingly, some patients complain of a metallic taste in the mouth.
(Please don’t ask - I have no idea why!)
On the other hand, Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) can
certainly be fatal! It appears that Serotype 2 may be the culprit here, but
does not usually produce DHF unless you have been previously bitten by types
1, 3 or 4. In addition to the symptoms of Classical Dengue the skin begins
to bruise very easily as the blood hemorrhages into the skin. Children are
also more susceptible to this than adults. This also becomes much more of an
emergency and is best treated in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) of your
favorite hospital.
With our ability to treat the viral ailments being very
limited, the defense against the Dengue virus lies in the preventive
measures. The other precautions are to wear long trousers and long sleeved
shirts, especially at sun up and sun down, when the mosquito is at its most
ravenous. The other factor to remember is “D” for Dengue and “D” for DEET.
DEET is the magic ingredient in mosquito repellents, so when you go to buy
some, check the label - if it has DEET, then get it. And then remember to
use it!
Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
There’s plenty of places for men to enjoy the company of the
opposite sex around here, but where do ladies go for company? I’m not looking
for a long term commitment, but just some fun evenings. I’m English and all I
want is some good conversation, a couple of drinks and no heavy stuff. Is this
possible, or am I looking for something that isn’t there?
Mandy
Dear Mandy,
I think you are confusing your aspirations with the local capabilities, my
Petal. You are in Thailand. The people here all speak a language known as
pasa Thai. The number of Thai males working in the bars who can actually
converse in English would be very small. For that matter, the number of ladies
working in the bar that can speak good conversational English is also very
small, after you get past “Hello sexy man. Sit down please. Buy me cola?” I am
sure that many of the ‘boy bars’ and nightclubs could offer you drinks, some fun
evenings with no commitment, and the ‘stuff’ gets as heavy as you (the customer)
wants. However, remember you pay for the fun, just as you do in any bar in
Thailand. The staff are ‘professional’, if you know what I mean.
Dear Hillary,
About the guy with bad breath: Many times persistent bad breath is caused by
bacteria on the tongue. He should brush his lady’s best friend before retiring
and then a quick mouthwash in the a.m. would solve his problem.
Your fan,
Utah Ken
Dear Utah Ken,
I see that with your interest in this problem, you must be a cunning linguist.
Clever you! I’m sure that after this news the sufferer will already be at it,
toothbrush in hand and mouthwash beside the bed for the morning, with spittoon
handily placed. I wish him luck.
Dear Hillary,
When you meet someone and you know they are the right person for you, it doesn’t
matter whether they work in a bar or work in a university. That’s it, they are
the one. You are in love. You go on a lot about finding good Thai women, but
they are really all the same, so don’t keep on about it. If your girl comes from
a bar, just enjoy and ignore the advice from silly old people like Hillary.
James
Dear James,
What a silly mixed up young boy you are. You are not describing “love” to me,
Petal, you are describing infatuation. You are ignoring the fact that girls who
work in the bars frequented by foreigners are in it for the money. Nobody forces
them to work there. They are there to get the money out of the foreign purse. So
if you put yourself in that environment (sorry about the big words, darling, but
you can look it up later), undoubtedly a young inexperienced male like you will
fall “in love” with a lady from the bar. It has been said many times, and this
is not a Hillary original, but you can take a girl out of the bar, but you can’t
take the bar out of the girl. However, as you say, “just enjoy”, but do listen
to the advice from this silly old person. I have seen more than you have, many
times over.
Dear Hillary,
Is possible that a letter from Germany are not arriving the receiver or right
target? I meet a nice Thai girl in the last holiday and the friendship between
us are deepens already. I write in the such time several letters to my
girlfriend and she write to me back. And we have no problems until now. The last
letter I write on May but no answer. Inside the letter 1,000 baht and some
picture of me. I ringed to my girl at the bar but she said there is no letter
coming from me. What will I do? Your newspaper are my only help for my
Heartbreak Situation. I talk with other people who are stay in Thailand before
and they talk to me that some girls just lying. But I am really desperate and I
only want to know what is true or not, because I love she very much. Have maybe
somebody of the Post staff stolen the letter or anybody else? So now I want to
know your meaning about this sadden situation. I am thank you and I looking
forward of an answer of you to me.
Heartbroken Helmut
Dear Heartbroken Helmut,
Unfortunately I have heard from many people that letters containing money go
missing. The answer is to disguise the fact that there may be money in the
letter by putting it inside a card or a small magazine. That way when the letter
is held up to a bright light you cannot see the money inside, but there are
other ways of sending money over here which are much safer too. Your girlfriend
at the bar will know them all, or her friends will. Perhaps it might be better
to save your money so that you can get over here more often. I don’t think your
girlfriend is lying. For 1,000 baht, no. For a million - well that’s another
story.
Let’s go to the movies:
by Mark Gernpy
Now playing in Pattaya
Inception: US/ UK, Drama/
Mystery/ Sci-Fi/ Thriller – Wow! Is this a movie and a half! A true
action film, with car chases and gunfights, but for the thinking man!
It’s a puzzle in a maze, and very exciting, to the emotions and the
mind. I loved it! Has garnered a raft of ecstatic reviews from those
attuned to Christopher Nolan’s brand of mind games, and for those who
appreciate his sort of thing, this is certainly a not-to-be-missed
event. Starring Leonardo DiCaprio in another in his string of
outstanding state-of-the-art acting jobs. It’s written, directed, and
produced by Christopher Nolan, so it’s his baby entirely, and it’s a
worthy successor to his memorable Memento and his dark action
film, The Dark Knight. About controlling a person through messing
with his dreams. Highly recommended! See it multiple times to get more
of what’s going on; no one will ever get it all. Early reviews:
generally favorable. Big C also has a Thai-dubbed version.
Gregory Woo stars as the wizard
Sun-Lok in “The Sorcerer’s Apprentice”.
The Sorcerer’s Apprentice: Directed by Jon
Turteltaub (National Treasure 1 & 2). You remember the plot: A
sorcerer leaves his workshop in the hands of his apprentice, who gets
into trouble when the broomstick he’s tasked to do his chores for him
somehow develops a mind of its own. Well, anyway that’s the plot of the
segment in Walt Disney’s Fantasia, which is supposedly the origin
of this movie. Which in turn is based on the late 1890s symphonic poem
by Paul Dukas and the 1797 Johann Wolfgang von Goethe ballad. It is said
that the idea was mostly Nicolas Cage’s, who wanted to make a feature
length movie based upon the Fantasia segment. The cast is made up
of Nicolas Cage as Balthazar Blake, a sorcerer and computer simulation
expert, based on the magician Yen Sid portrayed in Fantasia;
newcomer Jay Baruchel as Dave Stutler, an average college student who
becomes Blake’s apprentice – he is based on the character played by
Mickey Mouse in Fantasia; and Alfred Molina as Maxim Horvath, an
evil magician. Mixed or average reviews.
Pop Star / Duang Antarai: Thai, Drama – An
ordinary girl becomes involved in the life of a Thai superstar with
unexpected results. Rated 18+ in Thailand (has shocking (!?) images of a
nude and large-breasted woman). Not at Major Cineplex.
8E88 / Fan Lala: Thai, Comedy – On the eve of his
wedding, the groom is arrested as the assassin of a politician. He
claims to be innocent, but is taken to the dreaded “Zone 8E88” where he
will be induced to tell the truth. A prison comedy, if that’s your
thing. (Has shocking (!?) images of very large-breasted drag queens.)
Not at Major Cineplex; in Thai only at Big C.
Tukky: Thai, Comedy, Romance – Thai fantasy tale
of an ugly princess in a magical land.
Arch-villain Gru, right, is
shown in a scene from “Despicable Me”.
The Twilight Saga: Eclipse: US, Fantasy/ Romance/
Thriller – The pack is back again! In this episode, Bella is forced to
choose between her love for Edward (heartthrob Robert Pattinson, a
vampire) and her friendship with Jacob (heartthrob Taylor Lautner,
member of the Quileute Wolfpack) – knowing that her decision has the
potential to ignite the struggle between vampire and wolfpack, and a
tissy fit between fans of each. Mixed or average reviews. Thai-dubbed at
Big C.
Despicable Me (3D): US, Animation/ Family – This
first film from a new animation shop set up at Universal captures much
of what one likes about Pixar cartoons, but with a bit of a European
sensibility. Though it’s an American story, it was a Spanish animator’s
idea, and realized by a French animation house. It’s funny, clever, and
filled with memorable characters, all about a super villain, voiced by
Steve Carell, who is planning the biggest heist in the history of the
world: he’s going to steal the moon. Three little orphan girls challenge
his plans. Generally favorable reviews. At Pattaya Beach only.
Predators: US, Action/ Adventure/ Sci-Fi/ Thriller
– I enjoyed this! I’m not a particular fan of this sort of action film,
but I found it quite entertaining. I was impressed by the fun the actors
seemed to be having with their characters (Lawrence Fishburne especially
giving a deliciously-chewed performance!). I thought the photography was
striking, the mood nicely tense and forbidding, and the music
fascinating. Starring Adrien Brody, and directed by Hungarian filmmaker
Nimrod Antal (Kontroll). Rock-solid, old-school thrills. Mixed or
average reviews. Big C also has a Thai-dubbed version.
Knight and Day: US, Action/ Comedy/ Thriller – The
film where Tom Cruise gets to be charming again, after a considerable
absence. And he is, with charisma to spare. I found it pleasantly
amusing, as much a cute rom-com as an action flick. Mixed or average
reviews. Thai-dubbed at Big C.
The Karate Kid: US/ China, Action/ Drama/ Family/
Sport – Even worse than I had imagined. Filmed in Beijing
emphasizing tourism sites, which the Chinese required; turns out that’s
the best part. Generally favorable reviews. Not at Big C.
The A-Team: US, Action/ Adventure/ Thriller –
A big-screen version of the TV series, which captures the
superficial and noisy spirit of the original. There were actually spots
I enjoyed, here and there between the noisy action scenes. A group of
Iraq War veterans looks to clear their name with the US military, who
suspect the four men of committing a crime – they were actually framed.
Going “rogue,” the colorful team utilizes their unique talents to try
and clear their names and find the true culprits. Starring Liam Neeson
and Jessica Biel. Rated 18+. Mixed or average reviews. Not at Big C.
Sorry Saranghaeyo: Thai/ South Korea, Comedy/
Romance – A Thai woman is obsessed with Korean styles and one Korean
heartthrob in particular, and travels to South Korea to saturate herself
in all things Korean. Directed by Poj Arnon (Bangkok Love Story
(2007)), who says that this is his first film about a man and
woman in love. He’s known for his Katoey comedies and gay love
stories. Not at Major Cineplex.
Prince of Persia: US, Action/ Adventure/ Fantasy/
Romance – An old-style Arabian Nights story, set in medieval Persia when
a nefarious nobleman (a deliciously villainous Ben Kingsley) covets the
Sands of Time, a magical dagger that allows its possessor to turn back
time. Starring Jake Gyllenhaal and a quite appealing Gemma Arterton.
Mixed or average reviews. Pattaya Beach only, if still playing.
Staying happy in Paradise - the Counseling Corner
Couples in Pattaya
Richard L. Fellner
Statistics and observations in the street show that
more and more couples not only spend their holidays in Pattaya, but have
also decided to retire here. Well, we live in a city that has much to
offer: pleasant (though rather hot at the moment) temperatures, beach
and sea, low cost of living, great food - and a rainbow of entertainment
choices.
However, for most couples it turns out to be a
serious challenge to maintain their balance since they have arrived in
‘paradise’. Many clients who consult me about different problems also
tell me about relationship issues - some of them related to the
different culture, others related to the fact that it is not equally
easy for both partners to feel at home here.
Not too surprisingly, the ones who usually feel most
at ease are men, perhaps due to the ‘frugality’ of the male sex.
Spending all day long sitting in a chair (sipping beer) and then taking
a stroll through (beer) bars at night with a few buddies would be
sufficient for most of my fellow males. Women, however, tend to feel
left alone and bored with such kinds of ‘recreational activities’, and
will develop chronic feelings of frustration and anger. The difficulties
to find like-minded people and friends don’t make the situation any
easier. But: don’t give up - especially don’t give up talking to each
other!
The ‘threat’ to seek counselling can sometimes result
in a new impetus as well.
Richard L. Fellner is head of the Counseling Center
Pattaya in Soi Kopai and offers consultations in English and German
languages after making appointments at 0854 370 470.
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