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Money matters:
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
Nominated for the Lorenzo Natali Prize
Here we go again… Part 1
All economic historians know about the tragic year of 1932.
Back then everyone believed that the measures taken by Hoover’s administration
had beaten the recession of the day. Stock markets and optimism soared.
Fast-forward 78 years to a similar situation being described
by Jeremy Grantham, founder/director of GMO, a leading US-based global
investment firm.
“The market has had a near record rally, sprinting far past
our estimated fair value of 875 for the S&P 500. [Ben] Bernanke [Chairman of the
US Federal Reserve] is, in fact, begging us to speculate, and is being mean only
to conservative investors like pensioners who cannot make a penny on their
cash.”
As in the days that followed the great Wall Street Crash of
1929, the masters of the universe have taken charge. They have prescribed a
massive bailout programme that prevented the complete meltdown of the financial
system and engineered a temporary economic recovery. The obvious cost of this
bailout has been the unprecedented deterioration of the Federal balance sheet.
But Grantham points to the less obvious, but perhaps more severe cost incurred
by rewarding recklessness and saving the incompetent.
“Weak enterprises, financial and other, were not gobbled up
by the stronger, more prudent, and more competent natural survivors, and there
is a long-term cost in that. So now, Bernanke begs us to speculate, and we are
obedient. Despite being hammered down twice in 10 years and getting punished for
speculating, we again pick ourselves up off of the canvas and get back into the
good fight. Such persistence is unprecedented - 20 years for each really painful
experience has been the normal recovery time - but Uncles Ben and Alan
[Greenspan, former Chairman of the US Fed] have treated us so well in these two
disasters that, with hindsight, they don’t feel so bad after all. Yes, the
market is still down a lot in over 10 years and on our data is likely to have a
second consecutive very poor decade, but we have had two wonderful recoveries in
which the more speculative you were, the more money you made. So why not break
the historical rules and try a third time? Perhaps this time it will be lucky.”
Given the current state of the US economy and the global
markets our friend at GMO is far from optimistic about what where the Fed’s
policy will likely lead us - off the edge of a cliff.
“To do it twice seems like sadism. And for us to play the
game once more seems like lining up behind hot stoves and begging, ‘Please, can
I burn my hand a third time?’ Investors used to be more pain averse. The key
shift seems to be the confidence we now have in Bernanke’s soldiering on with
low rates and moral hazard to the bitter end, if necessary, cliff or no cliff.
The concept of moral hazard has changed. It used to be a vague expression of
intent: ‘If anything goes wrong, I will help you if I can.’ It seems to have
been transmuted into a cast-iron commitment. The Fed seems to be pledging that
it will bail us out after every flood. All that is lacking is a rainbow. This
time, the recovery for the total market was 80% in one year, second only to
1932, and the really speculative stocks are almost double the market, as they
also were in 1932.”
Back in 1932, however, the conditions were different.
Grantham believes they were more conducive to such a rally. But he argues that
today’s excessive market responses have occurred because stocks are far more
sensitive to low rates and the Fed’s policy than the real economy itself.
The economy is “limping back into action” as it attempts to
shake off the excessive mortgage defaults and public debt, he says, but it will
face “seven lean years” before the fundamentals get back on the right track. And
this calls for a more bearish and boorish approach to investment than the
speculative bull being reared on Bernanke’s ranch.
“The economy’s durability and flexibility is usually
undersold by the bears, and I have generally been leery of underestimating its
potential. But we can probably agree that the economy is plagued by unusual
problems this time. It is therefore perhaps more likely that the economy will
recover in fits and starts, and that over several years it will underperform its
historical record.”
This is why John Sheehan, managing director of Bangkok-based
Global Markets Asia, has for some time now seen the next 12 months starting from
July as both a tricky and a crucial time - even a positive outcome is fraught
with danger, yet whatever happens over the next year will play a defining role
in what path the global economy takes for many years to come.
If both the economic recovery and the drop off in
unemployment are slow then Bernanke will keep rates very low, as promised. “In
that case,” says Grantham, “stocks and general speculation will very probably
rise from levels that are already overpriced. And if they do, Bernanke will
definitely not be concerned and has told us as much.”
Despite many foreign central banks taking sensible,
precautionary action against the risks from emerging asset class bubbles,
Bernanke has adopted Alan Greenspan’s stance of “let the bubbles take care of
themselves”. He may event doubt their existence, according to Grantham, which is
a disturbing perspective given the speculation-fuelled foam bath that lurks
around the corner.
To be continued…
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The above data and research was compiled from sources
believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its
officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above
article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any
actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For
more information please contact Graham Macdonald on graham@mbmg-international.com
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Snap Shots: by Harry Flashman
Changing DOF
Depth of Field (DOF) is something that seems to be a challenge for many
weekend photographers, though it does not have to be. Mastery of DOF
really is the second rule of photography in my opinion. Before you ask,
the first rule is to walk several meters closer to the subject!
Pic of welcome mat taken at f2.8 and 410 mm focal
length.
The DOF in any picture can often make or break the
entire photograph, but knowing how to manipulate the depth of field
improves your photography instantly!
DOF is an optical characteristic and depends solely
on the lens being used and the aperture selected. Altering the shutter
speed does not change the DOF.
DOF really refers to the zone of “sharpness” (or
being in acceptable focus) from foreground items to background items in
any photograph. This is different from what the eye sees, as the eye can
instantly focus on near and far objects, giving the impression that
everything in your field of vision is in sharp focus. The camera,
however, gives you a slice of time.
The first concept to remember is “1/3rd forwards and
2/3rds back.” Again this is a law of optical physics, but means that the
DOF, from foreground to background in your photograph can be measured,
and from the focus point in the photo, extends towards you by one third
and extends away from the focus point by two thirds.
For those of you with SLR’s, especially the older
manual focus SLR’s, you will even find a series of marks on the focusing
ring of the lens to indicate the Depth of Field that is possible with
that lens.
Take a look at this week’s photograph, and look at
the background. It has been made into a soft blur. How did I change this
DOF sharpness? Answer, with a flick of the wrist!
You see, for each focal length of lens, the DOF
possible is altered by the Aperture. The rule here is simple - the
higher the Aperture number, the greater the DOF and the lower the
Aperture number, the shorter the DOF. In simple terms, for any given
lens, you get greater front to back sharpness with f22 and you get very
short front to back sharpness at f4.
For example, using a 24 mm focal length lens focused
on an object 2 meters away - if you select f22, the DOF runs from just
over 0.5 meter to 5 meters (4.5 meters total), but if you select f11 it
only runs from 1 m to 4 m (3 m total) and if you choose f5.6 the Depth
of Field is only from 1.5 m to 3 m (1.5 m total).
On the other hand, using a longer 135 mm focal length
lens focused at the same point 2 meters away, you get the following
Depths of Field - at f22 it runs from 1.9 m to 2.2 m (0.3 m) and at f5.6
it is 1.95 m to 2.1 m (a total of 0.15 m).
Analysis of all these initially confusing numbers
gives you now complete mastery of DOF in any of your photographs. Simply
put another way - the higher the Aperture number, the greater the DOF;
the smaller the Aperture number the smaller the DOF; plus the longer the
lens, the shorter the DOF, the shorter the lens, the longer the DOF
(just remember the ‘opposites’ - the longer gives shorter).
Now to apply this formula - when shooting a landscape
for example, where you want great detail from the foreground, right the
way through to the mountains five kilometers away, then use a short lens
(24 mm is ideal) set at f22 and focused on a point about 2 km away.
On the other hand, when shooting a portrait where you
only want to have the eyes and mouth in sharp focus you would use a
longer lens (and here the 135 is ideal) and a smaller Aperture number of
around f5.6 to f4 and focus directly on the eyes to give that ultra
short Depth of Field required.
Master it this weekend, and just remember that these
optical laws hold good for all cameras, be they film or digital.
Modern Medicine:
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
The ‘Big C’ diagnosis
Sometimes I get somewhat philosophical in this column. This
is one of those. You may agree or disagree with my thoughts, but for me, I
just want to make people think and discuss, and since I have been a doctor
for over 40 years, I have seen many patients who have been told they have
“Cancer”.
Generally, a patient ends up with a diagnosis of “Cancer”
after a period of ill health followed by careful and appropriate tests,
generally involving a biopsy. It is not a ‘hit or miss’ diagnosis. It is not
a diagnosis we take lightly. In many instances, the diagnosis may completely
alter the lifestyle of the person. It may even herald the beginning of the
end. It is at this stage you should be told whether the cancer is benign or
malignant. If it is benign, you can live with it. If it is malignant, you
may not be able to live with it.
From the doctor’s point of view, this is also a very
difficult diagnosis to impart to any patient. Some doctors are better at it
than others, and by and large, Thai doctors find it very difficult, and
undoubtedly language is part of the problem.
So what should you do after getting the bad news? The
first thing to do if you feel there may be some doubt about the diagnosis,
is then go and get a second opinion, or even a third. It is your body and
your life that we are talking about.
The next is to consult the internet. You have to become
the world’s expert on your particular type of cancer. Sure, listen carefully
to your doctor, and don’t be afraid to ask questions. Even the “How long
have I got?” sort of questions, even though you will find that your doctor
may squirm at that and try to avoid answering directly. Persevere. It is
your body and your life that we are talking about.
Now, it is important for you to find out just how
advanced is your cancer. Is it still at the stage of being just a primary,
or has it spread, called secondaries or metastases?
This next piece of advice is somewhat contentious, but
represents my thoughts on the situation, after 40 years of medical
experience. (That’s why they call it medical “practice” - eventually you get
it right.)
There is a scanning procedure called a “PET” scan
(positron emission tomography) which can help to demonstrate a cancer, stage
a cancer, show whether a lump is cancer or not, to show whether a cancer has
spread to other parts of the body (metastasized), assist in choosing the
best treatment for your cancer, to show how well cancer drug treatment is
working and show the difference between scar tissue and active cancer
tissue. With some cancers, PET scans are often used to look for cancer in
the lymph nodes in the body, or to show whether the cancer has spread to
other areas such as liver, brain and bones. This can help your specialist
(and you) to decide whether it is possible to remove the cancer with
surgery.
Unfortunately, PET scans are not cheap, and not every
hospital has one. In fact, very few. The only one I know is in the
Wattanasoth Cancer Hospital in the Bangkok Hospital (info@bangkokhospital.com).
You are looking at around 90,000 THB, though I believe they are running a
promotion with the price now 53,000 THB.
I believe that the most logical step after the biopsy is
the PET scan. You need to know whether your cancer is localized, or has it
spread? If it has, how many metastases are there, and where in your body do
they lie?
Now with all the information before you, as to the type
of cancer you have, knowledge of its aggression and response to treatment
and whether it is still localized or otherwise, means you can make an
informed decision on your future.
For me, if I had a localized tumor with a good response
to surgery/chemo/radiotherapy I would go for full-on treatment. If I had a
tumor that had spread everywhere with a poor response to treatment I would
go to Disneyland.
Heart to Heart with Hillary
Hello Hillary,
I have been reading your letter page for many years but after
reading it today I was having such a good laugh I thought I would send you a few
lines to thank you for making my day, and the subject is that 9 to 19 year old
boy let loose on his own in Pattaya. What a clown, and, how many clowns like him
are there in our lovely city? You can go into any large store in Pattaya and
find girls sitting alone at restaurants, but what this boy does not realize is a
lot of the girls use them as a base for attracting men. They do not work in bars
so they must be nice girls (come into my net little boy).
I have been here a long time now and served my apprenticeship
all over Pattaya, in bars, restaurants, massage parlors, and shops. It is a very
long learning curve and not for a faint hearted 19 year old. I suggest he
returns home and next time he arrives bring his Papa along to look after him. I
loved your ending to the reply you sent him, “Come for step two on your 10th
birthday,” (brilliant).
Happy Elder Gentleman
Dear Happy Elder Gentleman,
After your long and arduous training sessions, I am so happy to hear that you
are now “happy” as well as old. I have to say you have certainly done the ‘hard’
yards during the apprenticeship, with the “bars, restaurants, massage parlors,
and shops”. Did you get certificates as well from all these centers of learning?
Was there a graduation ceremony, if so, I am sure the editor would love to
publish it. But, jokes aside, there are young chaps amongst the good burghers of
Pattaya who are rather damp behind the ears, to put it mildly, though they are
my crosses to bear, my Petal. If I don’t look after them, who knows where they
might end up? I am glad you have enjoyed the column for many years, it is people
like you who make it all worthwhile. That is all the sleepless nights and
endless worrying about our young people these days. I am sure you were never as
na๏ve as all that, were you?
Dear Hillary,
A chap called John wrote in a couple of weeks ago complaining that his rented
“wife” for two weeks was costing him a lot of money. He wrote, “The girl has got
her hand out for this and that, mobile phone needs replacement, money for Mama,
money here, money there. It really does add up. I think you should be letting
your readers know about these things, Hillary.” Now I don’t know where he comes
from, Hillary, but for as long as I’ve been reading your column, which is a few
years now, you have been advising and warning all the “John’s, Tom’s, Dick’s and
Harry’s” about just that problem. What does he expect? She’s got two weeks to
make the biggest score she can, and she certainly found one sucker in John. It
was up to him to just say “No!” What could she have done? Run away? That won’t
happen, not while our John has anything left in his wallet. Don’t these people
understand the financial nature of their lifetime friend after two weeks?
James
Dear James,
Like you, I wonder some days, my Petal. Are these people like John living in
some kind of a time warp? They must think the price for everything has remained
the same as it was 20 years ago. Unfortunately, everything has gone up in price
in that time, so much so that I have to rely on hand-outs for my chocolates and
champagne. I certainly can’t afford them on my salary. I agree with your
comments James; people like John have to start facing reality regarding their
liaisons.
Dear Hillary,
You spend so much time helping others, why doesn’t the Pattaya Mail
nominate you for an award from the government? There’s lots of people not as
deserving as you who get awards. If you got the nomination, there might also be
some champagne at the ceremony. Who do I contact for you, Petal?
Norman
Dear Norman (the Nominator),
My natural modesty is such that I could not possibly accept such accolades (no
matter how deserving I am), but editor@pattayamail.com would be a good
start. In the meantime, just send the champagne and chocolates directly to the
Pattaya Mail office, but clearly marked “For Hillary only”.
Dear Hillary,
Do you really live in a little attic above the newspaper office? I often drive
past the office and wonder if you are up there, writing your weekly advice
column for the lovelorn. Does the editor allow you any time off? I will treat
you to a cup of coffee some day if you are free.
Carl
Dear Carl,
Thank you for your caring thoughts. You are very sweet. I don’t actually sleep
in my little office, but do work in a small room upstairs, surrounded by
tear-stained hankies, as I try to come to terms with all the suffering in the
world. It is a very difficult job, caring Carl.
Let’s go to the movies:
by Mark Gernpy
Now playing in Pattaya
Toy Story 3: US, Animation/
Adventure/ Comedy/ Family/ Fantasy – I have seen this, and I think it is
inspired. I loved every minute of it. The set-up: Andy, the boy who owns
the toys, is now 17 and ready to head off to college, leaving Woody,
Buzz Lightyear, Jessie, and the rest of the toy-box gang to ponder their
uncertain futures. When the toys are accidentally donated to the
Sunnyside Daycare center they’re initially overjoyed to once again be
played with, but their enthusiasm quickly gives way to horror as they
discover the true nature of the establishment under the rule of the
deceptively welcoming “Lotso” Bear. Starring the voices of Tom Hanks and
many other talented actors; there are 302 characters in the film, and
they’re all gems! Reviews: Universal acclaim.
Huang Pee Teng / Luang Pee Teng III / The Holy Man III:
Thai, Comedy/ Drama – The continuing misadventures of a young,
self-confident, and stubborn monk who, in trying to escape from a world
of confusion, only finds more confusion.
Little Thing Called Love / First Love: Thai,
Comedy/ Romance – A young and ordinary high school girl has a big crush
on a heartthrob senior at school, played by for-real heartthrob Mario
Maurer. To make him see that she exists in his world, the girl tries to
improve her physical looks and tries to become a star at school, without
getting the results she wants.
Salt: US, Action/ Thriller – Bombastic,
complicated, old-school spy action-thriller, starring Angelina Jolie.
Angelina is a marvel to watch as she plays a CIA officer on the run,
using all her skills and years of experience as a covert operative to
elude capture and prove her innocence. An unpretentious piece of
action-movie craftsmanship that’s a better Bond movie than most recent
Bond movies. Generally favorable reviews. Thai-dubbed at Big C.
Step Up 3D: US, Drama/ Music/ Romance –
Breakdancers! Third installment of the Step Up series, popular
with fans of dance films. Showing in 3D and 2D at Pattaya Beach, 2D only
at Major.
Boonchu 10: Thai, Comedy/ Drama – Another in the
homespun teen comedy series of a country boy’s adventures in Bangkok.
The Last Airbender: US, Action/ Adventure/ Family/
Fantasy – I saw this yet again, this time in 3D. For this film, the 3D
was a hasty decision of the producers at the last minute, and the final
cut of the 2D film, shortened by 25 minutes, was hurriedly transformed
into 3D by a post-production process of questionable quality. It’s not
good 3D. We should call this process something like “2D Plus” to
distinguish it from real 3D, planned from the beginning for 3D using 3D
equipment.
And yes it is darker than the 2D version, not as crisp,
the colors a bit muddy, but for me not as much as I was expecting. I do
think that given a choice you should see the 2D version. If, that is,
you plan to see it at all. And despite the terrible reviews it has
received, it seems to be doing well enough. You have a choice of seeing
it in either 2D or 3D at Pattaya Beach; at Major it’s only in 2D, and at
Big C it’s 2D and Thai-dubbed. Generally unfavorable reviews, one point
away from the category “Overwhelming dislike.”
I’ve already described how disappointed I am with the
film and how fond I am of the source material, the brilliant 61-episode
American animated television series, Avatar: The Last Airbender.
That series, and this film, are set in a world of Chinese martial arts,
drawing on Chinese and Japanese culture, and Indian religions.
At this viewing I was particularly annoyed by the acting
of Nicola Peltz as Katara. It really was a horribly inadequate acting
job, and since she was tasked with the unenviable job of delivering
reams of voice-over narration to a seemingly unending extent, her
inadequacies were laid out for all to see at too-frequent intervals. I
don’t want to call her a terrible actress because what we see might be
the result of a number of things, including bad directing and bad
dialogue. But whatever the cause, this performance just didn’t work. Her
delivery was breathy, unbelievably amateurish, with little connect with
what she was saying. This was also true to a lesser extent with the
other two juvenile leads, Jackson Rathbone as Sokka, and the Avatar
himself, Aang, played by Noah Ringer.
My recommendation still is to buy the truly fine animated
series, and skip the movie.
Inception: US/ UK, Drama/ Mystery/ Sci-Fi/
Thriller – A brilliant and extraordinarily challenging film that has
gotten ecstatic reviews from those attuned to director Christopher
Nolan’s brand of mind games. For them, a not-to-be-missed event. Highly
recommended. Generally favorable reviews. Not at Big C.
The Sorcerer’s Apprentice: Completely disposable.
If you have nothing else to do and want to waste a couple of hours
without thinking too much, this is one way to do it. Especially if you
like the persona of Nicolas Cage. Apparently Cage wanted to make a
feature length movie based upon the Sorcerer’s Apprentice segment of
Walt Disney’s Fantasia. Cage plays the sorcerer and Jay Baruchel
plays an average college student who becomes the apprentice – the
character played by Mickey Mouse. I am way put off by the physical
mannerisms and irritating, whiney, unpleasant voice of Jay Baruchel. I
don’t know how he got to be such a star.
More serious is the terrible editing. Here we have a
superb example of action editing where you cannot tell what’s happening
or who is doing what to whom. Just impressions, no dramatic meaning.
Montage sequence of car chases and wrecks. Rapid-fire flashes of images.
I’ve talked about this before, and I am now officially starting a list
of “Bad Editors – Guilty of Crimes Against Cinema!” A list of those
criminally responsible for making a movie unwatchable by the editing
alone. Apprentice was edited by William Goldenberg, and he goes
to the top of the list, being the first one. He edited the two Nicolas
Cage vehicles in the National Treasure series, and Miami Vice
in 2006, and is now in the process of editing Transformers 3,
where he’ll fit right in. If you have nominations for this list,
feel free to let me know.
Mixed or average reviews. In Thai only at Big C.
Tukky: Thai, Comedy/ Romance – Thai fantasy tale
of an ugly princess in a magical land, and the top Thai film at the
moment.
Staying happy in Paradise - the Counseling Corner
Thailand - Western Relationships
Richard L. Fellner
Relationships between Thais and Western partners,
though dozens of books have been written on this topic already, in this
Counseling Corner series, we will look below the surface to devote
ourselves to the most important issues that can await those who enter
such relationships.
Part 1: Social Status
Here in Pattaya, there are often relationships
developing between people who would rarely fall head over heels in love
in the West. When a western engineer, teacher or head of department
starts dreaming about a future together with the daughter of a rice
farmer, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that difficulties are
inevitable.
Numerous studies show that those relationships in
which both partners come from a similar social class usually work out
best. In a Thai-Western relationship, the income gap between both
partners may still be large, but it is advantageous if they had a
comparable length of education and grew up in similar levels of society.
The dream of a Cinderella discovered and rescued by a
dauntless white knight who leads both to a golden and (mutually!) happy
future, unfortunately often just remains what it is... While exceptions
may occur once in a while, too often, it is usually rather
disillusionment and problems that are gaining on the couple - problems
they can barely resolve on their own. In such relationships, a feeling
often shared by both sides is that neither can understand the emotions,
behavior or concerns of their partner, nor do they themselves feel
really understood. Both are caught in a frustrating stalemate in which a
feeling of great attraction can’t divert from a strong sense that
without some neutral moderation, it might not be possible for both
partners to communicate efficiently and find their initial happiness.
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Live the happy life you planned!
Richard L. Fellner is head of the Counseling Center Pattaya
in Soi Kopai and offers consultations in English and German
languages after making an appointment at 0854 370 470. |
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