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Money matters:
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
Nominated for the Lorenzo Natali Prize
Is everything as bad as some people say? Part 3
For the past two weeks we’ve been looking at the facts. Now
let’s see what one of the world’s leading economists, Nouriel Roubini thinks
about it all. For those that do not know who Roubini is, he forecast the
property market, financial and banking crises. He is worried because:
- “The crisis is not over…we (will) move from a private to a
public debt problem. We socialized part of the private losses by bailing out
financial institutions and providing fiscal stimulus to avoid the great
recession from turning into a depression. But rising public debt is never a free
lunch, eventually you have to pay for it.”
- He also believes Greece will lead to catastrophes in other
countries, “We have to start to worry about the solvency of governments. What is
happening today in Greece is the tip of the iceberg of rising sovereign debt
problems in the Eurozone, in the UK, in Japan and in the US. This... is going to
be the next issue in the global financial crisis.”
- Roubini believes that Greece, Spain and Portugal will have
to leave Euroland. Naturally this will cause real problems for the Euro as a
major reserve currency.
- Weak governments in the west worry him as in the US the
Democrats and Republicans just seem to want to look after themselves and not the
country. Roubini is also concerned about Germany where Merkel has lost the
majority in the legislature. This is not all; Japan has a weak government as
does Greece.
- Surprisingly, he is cautiously optimistic about the UK as
the new coalition shows signs of sticking together but he does say the GBP6
billion of cuts is not nearly enough. However, they do have the benefits of an
independent currency although that itself may cause problems as, “inflation will
go up and that erodes the real value of public debt. In that scenario the value
of the pound will fall sharply.”
- If Euroland is to survive then it should follow the Germany
model and go through the comparative short term pain of “structural reform and
corporate restructuring”. However, the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain)
may not have enough time to do this before they go under.
- Roubini reckons, “We are still in the middle of this crisis
and there is more trouble ahead of us, even if there is a recovery. During the
Great Depression the economy contracted between 1929 and 1933, there was the
beginning of a recovery, but then a second recession from 1937 to 1939. If you
don’t address the issues, you risk having a double-dip recession and one which
is at least as severe as the first one.” He ends, “We are witnessing the worst
global economic crisis in the last 60 to 70 years.”
There is almost a never-ending source of information about
the situation we are now in. The important thing now is how to interpret all of
this and try to take advantage of it. Before we do that, let’s look as things as
they stand now:
- All the central banks will do for the foreseeable future is
print money 24/7. As one of my favourite people, Dr. Marc Faber, said recently,
“Central banks love to see asset prices go up.” The problem is that this seems
their only goal and they have no other plans.
- The great misbelief that people have is that printing money
can get a nation and its people back to the good life. This is just rubbish. To
quote Faber again, “If debt and money printing equalled prosperity then Zimbabwe
would be the richest country.” Then, and I love this, “Mugabe is the economic
mentor of Bernanke.”
- The US housing bubble was built on debt and this debt is
still around and will be with us for a long time to come.
- Faber also asks the question when the housing bubble was
still going on, “You have to ask what they were smoking at the Federal Reserve”
as prices were increasing by nearly 20% at the same time interest rates were
going up.
- People seem to have lost faith in the banks and the markets
and so are hoarding their money. If the economies of the western world are to
get a kick-start then the money supply needs to be inflated by a minimum of six
percent per annum.
- The fiscal problems that exist are actually a lot worse
than we are being told. When one adds together the private and public debt and
then includes unfunded liabilities as well, then the total debt works out to be
more than 800% of GDP. This is more than twice what it was in 1929.
- The currencies of the western world will depreciate. It is
the central banks that are not in control, because they continue to use the
printing presses, not the markets. However, this may provide light at the end of
the tunnel. It must be remembered that when the Mexican Peso went down by 95%
nearly 30 years ago, Mexican funds became so undervalued they ended up a real
bargain. Hopefully the same may happen again although it must be said that the
light at the end of the tunnel may be a train with a bloody great headlamp
heading straight for you.
To be continued…
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The above data and research was compiled from sources
believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its
officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above
article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any
actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For
more information please contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]
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Snap Shots: by Harry Flashman
Pro photographer demands danger money
Nobody would ever put photography in the list of dangerous pastimes, but
let me tell you, I have had some dangers to overcome to get the image
the client wanted. I have been called upon to do some dangerous
photography. No, not in a tiger’s den, but an aerial shot taken from a
helicopter. This flying device had been modified for aerial photography
by removing both doors, making it an even more unsafe and uncomfortable
mode of transport than they usually are.
The brief was to photograph a particular building
site from around 200 meters up, and the direction had to be from the
north. It was a windy day and when we got to the shoot, the helicopter
pilot was unable to hover in a position where either of the door
apertures would give me the shot from the north. Since the hire of
helicopters is not cheap, and we only had one hour to get the shot,
there was only one answer - climb out on the landing struts and hang
over the edge!
Since I get vertigo standing on a chair, this was not
going to be easy. Fortunately the helicopter was set up with a harness
for me to wear, with a rope leading back inside the cabin. You should
try stepping out into space at 200 meters up, no parachute, and a piece
of ‘string’ attaching you to a helicopter. It was not a case of just
standing on the landing struts, but I had to lean out, with the harness
taking the strain as I moved even further out (like a crew member on a
yacht). The buffeting from the rotors and the cold day all added to the
problems I was having with camera shake (compounded by fear).
Eventually I managed to get the shot I needed, using
hand signals to the pilot to indicate more or less height. Then I had to
get back in. Since I was already well past the point of no return, I had
to get the assistant to pull me in. But the assistant was a woman and
not strong enough. Fortunately the pilot saw what was the problem went
on auto-pilot and dragged me in. I have not done a helicopter shoot
since that day.
However, much more dangerous was the following shoot,
done in my studio. The brief was an advertising shot for a bottle of
vodka. The final shot was to be the bottle sitting beside a dish of
strawberries. Now while that sounds simple, it is not all that easy.
The first item I had to get was the strawberries.
Since the client will complain if any strawberry is even slightly less
than perfect, this means you buy a huge amount of strawberries and spend
the next hour picking only the best ones. After that you paint them with
vegetable oil so they look all shiny and juicy. That was the easy bit.
Now to make a bowl of strawberries, and the bottle of
vodka ‘jump off’ the page, you have to light them from underneath. So I
used a sheet of glass supported at each end, about one meter from the
floor, pulled some meters of black paper from the background paper on a
roll hanging from the back wall of the studio, cut two holes in it where
the bowl and the bottle would sit and we were starting to look good.
While getting flash heads ready and the 5x4 plate
camera focused, I had the lights under the glass going. After several
minutes of fiddling and fussing I was ready to pull the first Polaroid.
While peering at the ground glass focusing screen I suddenly heard this
loud cracking noise. I looked up, just in time to be hit on the head by
the roll of black background paper!
What had happened was the lights had heated the glass
too much and it had broken. As it fell in two pieces, it dragged the
black background paper down too, and the roll came off the hooks on the
back wall, neatly landing on my head.
And you thought still life photography wasn’t dangerous?
Modern Medicine:
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
An overweight lady stars in the popular press
There was an item a few weeks ago regarding a 235 kg lady in
Bangkok. This lady had become ill and they had to transport her to the
hospital by removing the railing and evacuating her via the balcony. This
is, of course, an extreme example of obesity, called “morbid” obesity.
However, you do not have to wait until you weigh 200+ kg to be at risk.
The western world currently has an epidemic of obesity,
and guess what, the Asian world is rapidly following. Thirty years ago, it
was rare to see an overweight Thai. Not any longer. What has happened?
Quite simply, our diets are far from healthy, and that
includes both food and drink, especially the kinds of drinks that come in
dark green or brown bottles. I am sure you know the types.
The problem here is the fact that being overweight puts a
strain on the cardiovascular system, which sends the blood pressure up. That
in turn affects all the organs and systems, and everything goes pear-shaped
from there on, as well as your body shape.
You are entering the world of Syndrome X. Unfortunately
Syndrome X, which is otherwise known as the Metabolic Syndrome, is a classic
example of what we medico’s call ‘co-morbidity’. This is the situation where
one disease process or ailment affects, or “X”aggerates, another disease
process you may have. In these situations, the combined effects can be life
threatening. It is also a syndrome possessed by around 40 percent of adults
over 40.
For example, the combination of diabetes and obesity is a
disaster waiting. The combination of diabetes, smoking, obesity,
hypertension and high triglycerides (blood fats) is cardiac dynamite. Your
conclusive heart attack is a matter of ‘when’ not ‘if’. The risk factors
stemming from all those conditions become not a case of simple addition, but
are multiplied.
The problem from your point of view is that most of these
factors come on very slowly, and become part of your daily living. You’ve
smoked for years and never had a smoker’s cough, so why stop now? Every time
you get some trousers made the waistband has to be that little larger. Your
belt has been let out two more holes over the past two years. Your doctor
said you had a “Little bit of blood pressure” three years ago, but you
haven’t been back to check, as you feel quite OK in yourself. Your
‘triglycerides’? “My what?” Your blood sugar? “It was OK last time it was
checked five years ago!”
The big problem is that the “Little bit of blood
pressure”, even say 150/100, can produce a very dangerous situation when the
person with that BP has elevated blood sugar as well. Or smokes. It is the
multiplication effect again. Whereas you can (almost) ignore mild elevations
like 150/100, if you have nothing else wrong, ignoring it when there are
other conditions co-existing brings up that co-morbidity problem again. And
the likelihood of a cardiac calamity.
Likewise, the “little bit of extra weight” that we all
excuse ourselves for carrying, may (just ‘may’) be fine for someone with no
other medical conditions, but represents an enormous risk factor for someone
with the Metabolic Syndrome.
Here are some chilling truths. Between 87-100 percent of
people with fatal coronary heart disease, or a non-fatal heart attack had at
least one of the following risk factors - smoking, diabetes, increased blood
fats and high blood pressure. The Metabolic Syndrome is characterized by
having diabetes, increased blood pressure, and raised blood fats. Can you
now see the importance of doing something about weight, blood fats and blood
pressure? I for one would not like to be sitting with a condition that gives
me between 87-100 percent chance of a cardiac problem.
So what is this week’s message? Quite simply, if you have
diabetes, do something about the other risk factors. Stop smoking and get
your BP and blood fats checked. If you don’t even know what your blood sugar
level is, then get a check-up and find about all of it!
In the meantime, take 100 mg of aspirin each morning. It
is cardio-protective. I do!
Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
I have no problems living here in Thailand. I can get as many
‘film stars’ as I want, who think I’m just the greatest. They don’t cost me much
money - a lot less than a wife would ever cost back home. I get someone
different every night I want. The beer is cheap and if you choose the bar which
has a pig on a spit, you get free food as well. Just how good is that? It amazes
me just how some of these losers can find life so difficult over here. It’s
Paradise!
Jimmy
Dear Jimmy,
I am glad to see that you think you have arrived in Paradise, but you haven’t
been here long, have you. The regular kid in the candy store, that’s you, isn’t
it. We also have a name for the guys who follow the roast pigs, we call them
‘balloon chasers’ because the balloons are there to attract the poor mouths. I’m
also glad that you think your ‘film stars’ think you’re just the greatest. Learn
some Thai, Jimmy my Cheap Charlie Petal, and you’ll find out what they really
think about you, and I guarantee it won’t be complimentary. And as for your
“Paradise”, did you ever read John Milton’s poem “Paradise Lost”? I probably
doubt it, it was a bit before your time, and was 10 books long. A little bit too
much brain tasking for you, I would imagine. Enjoy the pigs.
Dear Hillary,
Didn’t mean to be clogging up your column, but your reply to my letter just
reminded me of something. Sick buffalos, haven’t they been sick since the
Vietnam War? That’s an awfully long time. If they’re still alive, they should
have been taken off a life support so these poor souls can rest in peace. I
promise, I wouldn’t be writing you for a while b/c other people (like those love
sick farangs) have more urgent needs than me.
As always,
Your fan from the USA
Dear Fan from the USA,
Always happy to hear from a true animal lover like yourself, prepared to place
the family buffalo in the ICU ward since the end of the Vietnam War. However, I
agree, it’s time to pull the plug on these unfortunate animals. Unfortunately,
the new crop of post-Vietnam ladies of the night is adept at keeping the tale
going to post-Vietnam wet behind the ears tourists to Thailand. These things
have a habit of continuing to go around, and around and around. Where there is a
well filled wallet, there is always someone wanting to help empty it. “Hello
sexy man. Buy me cola?”
Dear Hillary,
I think my Thai wife is two timing me. When I go off-shore I leave my motorcycle
in the garage. Being a British bike, I expect some drops of oil on the garage
floor, but recently, on the last two trips, the garage floor is oil-spotless.
The only way this could happen is if someone has taken the bike away while I’m
off-shore. Is my wife giving it away? If she is, why doesn’t she tell me about
it? Or does she have a Thai boyfriend waiting till I say goodbye every month?
Why she would do this is beyond me as I give her everything she wants, gold
chains and everything. I really cannot think of any other reason for the garage
floor to be so clean. Do you think the seals have taken up, or what is
happening? Is there another logical answer?
Beezer
Dear Beezer,
Sorry to disappoint you, Petal, but none of your suppositions are correct. Seals
don’t “take up” while a bike is not being used. The seals dry out and the leaks
become far more, well that’s what Somchai, the leader of the motorcycle push on
the corner of my street tells me. Somchai also tells me that you should check
the odometer - the thingy that tells you how many km you have done. That will
tell you right away if the bike has been used. Anyway, the more likely reason
that there are no tell-tale oil drops is the fact that there is no oil left.
Check that first before doing DNA tests on the saddle.
Dear Hillary,
My Thai GF and I get along very well, other than one thing - she is forever
going up-country to visit her folks in the sticks, stays there for three or four
days and then comes back and our relationship is very good again. There is
nothing there in her village - it’s primitive (I’ve been there once, that was
enough). So why the need to go up-country? Do you think she has a husband up
there or something like that?
Worried
Dear Worried,
Are you asking me if I think this girl has someone in her “primitive” village
that takes her back there, then I would say, very definitely yes. You do not
understand Thai customs, Petal. Your saying “There is nothing in her village,”
shows just how little you understand Thai families. She has her mother and
father up there, and that is enough. She may also have children up there. Have
you considered that possibility? Far more likely than a husband hiding in the
buffalo shed. A friendly chat with your GF should soon reveal all!
Let’s go to the movies:
by Mark Gernpy
Now playing in Pattaya
Resident Evil: Afterlife:
UK/ Germany/ US, Horror/ Sci-Fi/ Thriller – The series continues.
Terrible reviews, but the series has always been a big hit in Thailand;
they must have found the formula that works here.
This time, in a world ravaged by a virus infection
turning its victims into the Undead (read: zombies), Alice (Milla
Jovovich), continues on her journey to find survivors and lead them to
safety. Her deadly battle with the Umbrella Corporation reaches new
heights as a new lead takes them to Los Angeles; when they arrive, they
find the city overrun by thousands of the Undead.
Rated R in the US for sequences of strong violence and
language. Generally unfavorable reviews, but the last Resident Evil
did a whopping business in Thailand, and this one looks to do the same.
Shown in both 3D and 2D versions at Pattaya Beach (and the 3D version is
for a change real 3D); in 2D elsewhere, and Thai-dubbed only at Big C.
In regards to the 3D process used, I want to emphasize
that this is real 3D, in fact using Pace Fusion 3-D cameras, the same
cameras James Cameron created with Vince Pace for a number of Cameron’s
documentaries, as well as his famous feature Avatar. Cameron
waited ten years until the 3D technology caught up with the vision he
had for Avatar, and he was deeply involved in the invention and
development of the technology. His systems and cameras remain at the
cutting edge of 3D technology.
Now, why they would want to use all this marvelous
technology for an unexceptional zombie flic is another question
entirely. But I want to do my bit to clear up the confusion as to what
kind of 3D is actually being used under the generic and often misleading
label of “3D” by places like SF Pattaya Beach. They charge the same
price for genuine 3D like this film as for rip-off cheapie
post-production 3D, which takes a 2D film and adds some 3D feel to it.
And they never let on. Shame, shame.
Eternity / Chua Fah Din Sa Lai: (Scheduled)
Thai, Drama/ Romance – One of the most interesting Thai movies to come
along in some time. Based on a revered and classic Thai novel of 1943,
the film depicts a forbidden love story in which adulterous lovers are
physically chained together for all eternity.
It’s also gotten some controversy because of lots of nude
footage of the couple, perhaps especially the many views of Ananda’s
rear end. But for me, I’m mostly interested in what the director will
do. His name is ML Pandevanop Devakul, better known as Mom Noi, and he’s
a fascinating guy. He’s an acting teacher, arguably the best acting
teacher in Thailand, the mentor of Ananda Everingham among others. He
comes from a classical theatrical background. As a director he has
presented some of the most severe examples of Western drama in Thai
adaptations over the years, including Greek drama, Shakespeare, Chekhov,
and modern American drama.
Starring Ananda Everingham. Rated 18+ in Thailand.
The Expendables: US, Action/ Adventure/ Thriller –
Directed by Sylvester Stallone and starring him and bunch of his old
action buddies – Mickey Rourke, Jason Statham, Jet Li, Dolph Lundgren,
and even token appearances by Bruce Willis and California governor
Arnold Schwarzenegger. A team of mercenaries head to South America on a
mission to overthrow a dictator. Rated R in the US for strong action and
bloody violence throughout, and for some language; 18+ in Thailand.
Mixed or average reviews. Thai-dubbed at Big C.
Actually, I found it kind of fun to see some of these
old-timers do their thing and joke around in their inimitable way. The
film is put together in a thoroughly professional way, with some nice
bits. The one-liners are kind of witty in their testosterone-laden way,
and the amazing Mickey Rourke once again comes though with a character
who is utterly believable, however disreputable, and an acting job that
is another small gem. What a treasure he is, after all he’s been
through. But as for the film ... Jeez, I’m just sick and tired of
explosions and car wrecks.
Kuan Muen Ho / Hello Stranger: Thai, Comedy/
Romance – Riding the local wave of fascination in all things Korean (but
especially the boy-band, pop-star craze), comes another rom-com about
Thais in that country of wonder that seems to breed only cute muppets.
Still the top film in Thailand.
Machete: US, Action/ Adventure/ Crime/ Thriller –
Starring Danny Trejo, Robert De Niro, Jessica Alba, Michelle Rodriguez.
The highly skilled “Mexican Federale,” Machete, is hired by some
unsavory types to assassinate a US senator. But just as he’s about to
take the shot, he notices someone aiming at him and realizes he’s been
set up. He barely survives the sniper’s bullet, and is soon out for
revenge on his former employers. The portrayal of race bigotry in this
film has gotten some people in the United States very upset indeed, some
saying that this movie will bring on race riots for sure. Rated R in the
US for strong bloody violence throughout, language, some sexual content,
and nudity. Mixed or average reviews. Thai-dubbed at Big C.
From Pakse with Love / Sabaidee 2: Thai, Comedy/
Romance – A follow-up sweet picture postcard from Laos following the
first sweet picture postcard from Laos in this planned trilogy, 2008’s
Sabaidee Luang Prabang. That movie was the first feature film
made in Laos in 20 years. This one stars Ray Macdonald and Laotian
beauty queen Khamly Philavong, reprising her role from the first film as
a charming tour guide.
Piranha 3-D: US, Action/ Horror/ Thriller – Terror
on the lake. “Boobs and blood,” that’s what Director Alexandre Aja
promised and that’s what he delivers in spades. Don’t even think about
trying to count the kills, or the boobies. Rated R in the US for
sequences of strong bloody horror violence and gore, graphic nudity,
sexual content, language, and some drug use; 18+ in Thailand. Mixed or
average reviews. In 2D only now, if still playing at all, and for sure
not at Big C.
Please, if you go, don’t bring the kiddies!! In
the US there’s been considerable controversy because parents haven’t
taken the R rating seriously, and have ended up with traumatized kids.
Probably for life.
Sing Lek Lek / Little Thing Called Love / First Love:
Thai, Comedy/ Romance – A young and ordinary high school girl has a big
crush on a heartthrob senior at school, played by for-real heartthrob
Mario Maurer. To make him see that she exists in his world, the girl
tries to improve her physical looks and tries to become a star at
school. Not at Major.
Scheduled for Sep 23
Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps:
US, Drama – Oliver Stone directs Michael Douglas, Shia LaBeouf, Frank
Langella, Susan Sarandon, Charlie Sheen, and Eli Wallach in this
scathing follow-up to the acclaimed 1987 film – 23 years later. Here the
disgraced Wall Street corporate raider imprisoned in the first movie is
released, and as the global economy teeters on the brink of disaster he
partners with a young Wall Street trader on a two-part mission: To alert
the financial community to the coming doom, and to find out who was
responsible for the death of the young trader’s mentor. I’m looking
forward to this one. Early reviews: Generally favorable.
Staying happy in Paradise - the Counseling Cornerr
Stop smoking: why is it so difficult?
Richard L. Fellner
Everyone knows about the harmfulness of smoking.
Governments try to make smoking more uncomfortable and expensive, and
entire industries live by the hope of wanna-be non-smokers, claiming to
make quitting easier and more bearable. And yet, most find it extremely
difficult to stop smoking.
But whenever pure self-discipline, the power of
chemistry and pharmacology turn out to be insufficient in helping us to
permanently change our behavior, the psyche has been overlooked - a
powerful force within us, one over which the conscious mind and drugs
have only very limited impact! That’s why smokers and addicts in general
tend to get caught up in the longstanding interplay between trying to
quit and falling back into old patterns of dependence. They feel bad
about themselves most of the time, since they really want to stop their
addictive behavior - but can’t manage to achieve it. It’s like you want
to do something good for your body and keep it healthy - but something
deep inside keeps you from doing it.
If you noticed this pattern in yourself, it can be
helpful and enlightening to learn about the causes of your personal
dependency behavior supported by a trained counselor. If the conscious
mind recognizes better what ‘goes deep down in the basement’ (the
psyche) and learns a few new strategies it can utilize to achieve its
goals, it can support your body more efficiently and you will regain
better control over yourself again. Finally, hypnotherapy can help
anchor new ‘smoking-liberated’ behavior patterns permanently in the
subconscious mind.
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Live the happy life you planned!
Richard L. Fellner is head of the Counseling Center Pattaya
in Soi Kopai and offers consultations in English and German
languages after making an appointment at 0854 370 470. |
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