BANGKOK, 4 May 2011 – The 2011 Thai economy will grow at 4.4% provided domestic politics is stable, and the upcoming general election goes on smoothly, according to the Center for Economic and Business Forecasting (CEBF) of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce.
CEBF Director Dr Thanawat Polvichai said the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for this year is anticipated to expand by 4.0-4.5%, with the growth of 4.4% most likely; as opposed to the 4.2% growth predicted earlier by the Chamber.
Dr Thanawat pointed out that the main factors supporting the economic growth comprise domestic political stability, the upcoming general election, and the economic recovery; adding that the impact of the twin deadly disasters in Japan was slight.
The growth has been predicted based on the assumption that the national inflation rate should be between 3.8 and 4.2%, global oil price between 100-120 US dollars per barrel, and the Thai baht move in the range of 29.3-30.2 baht against the greenback, said the Director.
On the other hand, Dr Thanawat admitted that the Thai economy would possibly grow only by 3.5 to 3.9% if the political situation remained unstable, or the new general election was not held as scheduled; and the price of oil hit 120-130 US dollars per barrel.
The director added that the economy would likely be affected by terrorism, if the recent killing of Usama bin Mohammed bin Awad bin Laden led to violence in the society; which would eventually have adverse effects on the tourism sector as well as on the global economy.
