BANGKOK, Jan 9 – Thailand’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in December reached its lowest point in two years mainly due to the political stalemate.
Thai Chamber of Commerce University’s Economic and Business Forecasting Center director Thanawat Polvichai said the CCI deteriorated for the ninth consecutive month to 73.4, its lowest since January 2012.
Dr Thanawat said the low point was because consumers were uncertain about the political situation, the high cost of living, and uncertainty in the global economy.
However, the centre predicted that public consumption will tend to slow down until at least the end of Q1. The outlook should be more upbeat if the present political situation improves, but it cannot yet be predicted.
Meanwhile, a survey on 800 business operators on the economic impact of the planned Bangkok shutdown on Jan 13 indicated that they were concerned by the situation and viewed that business sales volume and liquidity will drop by more than half.
The tourism sector is viewed as most impacted economically and regarding the country’s image, resulting in fewer tourists, and cancellations of room reservations and tour packages.
The Economic and Business Forecasting Center forecast that the Bangkok shutdown will reduce public consumption by 5-10 per cent on average, while countrywide spending will drop Bt500 million/day or Bt5-10 billion for the two-week shutdown.
Tourism business was also predicted to lose a similar amount of money in circulation at Bt200-500 million/day and Bt5-10 billion/fortnight.
Dr Thanawat noted that if the Bangkok shutdown lasts for one month, around Bt40 billion will be lost in the economy, which will impact Thailand’s gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.1-0.2 per cent.
However, the 2014 economic forecast should still be positive with growth of 0-5 per cent due to strong economic foundation, exports, and no occupation by anti-government protesters on transportation routes or production sectors.
