Kasikorn Research Center (KResearch) predicts that the gross domestic product will shrink by 10% this year and the economy will then recover in a U-shaped manner.
Nataporn Triratsirikul, assistant managing director of the center, said the Thai economy reached the bottom of its downturn in the second quarter of this year and was facing many uncertainties including the COVID-19 pandemic, baht appreciation and political situations.
Therefore, the center revised its GDP decline projection further downwards from 6% to 10% this year, she said.
The mentioned uncertainties would result in a U-shape recovery early next year on the conditions that there is a vaccine for COVID-19, the country welcomes foreigners and the government issues more assistance measures, Miss Nataporn said.
The government would see a tough challenge of properly implementing costly economic stimulus measures and coping with the risks of the COVID-19 spread while gradually opening the country, she said. How it handles the challenge will tell how long the U-shaped recovery will take, she said.
Miss Nataporn expects the Monetary Policy Committee to maintain its policy rate and monitor situations.
Thanyalak Vacharachaisurapol, deputy managing director of KResearch, said loans from Thai commercial banks would grow by 6.5-8.0% this year compared with 2.3% last year because they were helping their customers and operators were borrowing to maintain their liquidity.
Commercial banks were financially strong and would be a key mechanism to help customers pass through the crisis, she said.
Kevalin Wangpichayasuk, assistant managing director of the research center, identified the three most vulnerable kinds of business for the time being as food and beverages, electrical appliances, and hotels and restaurants. (TNA)
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