Rangsit University’s Centre for Economic and Business Research for Reform indicated that the ongoing political stalemate has already damaged the country to the tune of more than Bt490 billion.
Anusorn Thammajai, dean of the Faculty of Economics, said the ongoing political situation has led to losses of investment opportunities, while during the whole year the country could lose as much as Bt1 trillion,bucking the worldwide trend of economic recovery.
The political situation has affected the Thai economy in Q1 to grow negatively and could continue until Q2. The Thai economy in Q1 therefore could grow only 0.5 per cent, 0 per cent, or at -0.5 per cent in the worst case scenario. Now it is suggested that 2.5 per cent growth is the best case scenario, he said.
In addition, Thailand could lose its opportunity to become the centre of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) which is to take effect next year and the country could also face an economic downturn next year.
According to Mr Anusorn, if a government can be formed within April, parliament can be convened and political tensions ease without further major violence, the economy could grow 2.5 per cent. There is a 25 per cent likely chance such situation could happen, he suggested.
However, if the 2015 budget cannot be processed, or there is a Constitution Court ruling or a decision of the National Anti-Corruption Commission concerning the political situation and/or there is a coup in the second half of the year that leads to anarchy, the economy would possibly contract by -0.5 per cent. The country would enter a political crisis-driven recession, with a likely chance to happen at 45 per cent, Dr Anusorn noted.
