BANGKOK, Feb 5 – Thai rice exporters forecast this year’s rice exports should rise 0.9 per cent due to positive factors that the government might release rice from its stockpiles and review its rice pledging scheme.
Charoen Laothamatas, Thai Rice Exporters Association chairman, predicted Thailand would export 7.5 million tonnes of rice in 2014, valued at US$4.5 billion or Bt140 billion. However, the figure is less than that targetted by the Commerce Ministry at 8 million tonnes, valued at US$4.8 billion.
That Thai rice exports would increase is also owing to Thai rice prices, which are not so much different than rice of competitive countries, as well as the ongoing weakening of the baht currency.
Negative factors that will lower rice export growth is Thailand’s rice oversupply which could affect buyer confidence, rice price competition with India and Vietnam and the emergence of more rice export emerging
countries such as Myanmar and Cambodia.
The association will review rice export quantity in the next six months.
Thailand’s rice export in 2013 dropped 1.8 per cent year-on-year at 6.6 million tonnes, or valued at $4.4 billion (Bt133 billion).
Currently, Thailand’s price of 5% white rice is at US$400-450/tonne, higher than Vietnam rice costing US$395/tonne and cheaper than Myanmar rice which is at US$450-460/tonne.
Thai Jasmine or ‘Hom Mali’ rice is priced at US$1,000-1,100/tonne, more expensive than that of Vietnam which is US$555-565/tonne and that of Cambodia at US$895-905/tonne, but cheaper than Indian Jasmine rice
which costs US$ 1,515-1,525/tonne.
US Department of Agriculture expected that Thailand would be the world’s second largest rice exporter this year at 8.5 million tonnes, following India and Vietnam. It expected China would be the world’s first largest rice importer followed by Nigeria and Iran.
