BANGKOK, Feb 21 – The Thai economy in 2013 is forecast to grow 4.8-5.3 per cent or 5 per cent on average, higher than the earlier projection of 4.5 per cent, according to University of Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) Economic and Business Forecasting Center Director Thanawat Polvichai.
Dr Thanawat said that the domestic economy, both in terms of consumption and investment, continued to expand thanks to the injection of Bt500 billion through the government’s mega infrastructure investment projects in the second half of this year.
Meanwhile, exports are likely to expand 8.2 per cent, higher than the earlier projected 7.4 per cent due to the recovery of the global economy.
Foreign tourist arrivals are likely to grow to 23.6 million, up from the 22 million recorded last year.
Inflation is likely to hover within an appropriate range at some 3.5 per cent. However, it may rise in the second half of this year because entrepreneurs tend to increase goods and service prices then. In addition, pressure from capital inflows will cause the interest rate framework this year to stay around 2.25-3 per cent.
A risk factor for the Thai economy is the baht appreciation as economies in Asia have good fundamentals with high capital inflow both short and long term. As a result, the Finance Ministry and the Bank of Thailand must cooperate to monitor the capital inflow.
Regarding the possibility of a bubble in the real estate sector and with household debt, he said it is only a concern of the Bank of Thailand, seeing the rapid growth of credit to the household sector.
However, he said it is not worrying because purchasing power grew in tandem with economic conditions and there are no worrisome signals in the real estate sector.
