BANGKOK, Jan 28 – Thailand’s Ministry of Industry today predicted this year’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the industrial sector will expand by 4-5 per cent, lower than last year’s growth of 5.5-6.5 per cent.
Industrial Economics Office director Nuttapol Nuttasomboon said the 4-5 per cent industrial GDP growth is based on an average exchange rate of Bt31 against the US dollar while the manufacturing production index (MPI) will be 3.5-4.5 per cent higher and the volume of industrial exports will reach Bt6.2 trillion.
Positive components leading to last year’s industrial growth were domestic consumption, government investment in major projects and expanded investment in the private sector due to state stimulus packages such as the tax rebate on first-car purchases and reduction of the policy interest rate, he said, adding that the pressure from oil price and inflation was rather mild while the Asian economy is stronger.
Mr Nuttapol, however, cautioned that risks remain in the industrial sector, especially when the global economy has yet to fully recover and the Bt300 daily minimum wage has posed an additional financial burden to manufacturers.
If the Thai currency appreciates by Bt1 per US dollar and the government fails to extend assistance, the value of industrial exports will possibly fall by about Bt200,000 or 2.8 per cent this year, contributing to a reduced GDP in the industrial sector by 1 per cent, he said.
Most affected industries will be rubber, furniture, jewellery, electrical appliances and electronics products, he said.
Mr Nuttapol called on the government to rely less on export to lead the country to sustainable economic structure.
Regarding the automotive industry, he said this year’s vehicle production will reach 2.5 million units, a 2.57 per cent increase from last year, while 1.25 million units will be exported.
