The political impasse and vacuum in the administrative system have plunged Thailand’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in March to its lowest level in 149 months, more than 12 years, the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) announced last weekend.
Thanawat Polvichai, director of the university’s Economic and Business Forecast Centre, said the CCI has slipped for the last 12 consecutive months to 68.8 in March – the worst since November 2001 due to the months-long political turmoil, the Thai economic slowdown and uncertainty in the revival of global economy.
Thanawat Polvichai.
He said the CCI for the overall economy also dropped for 11 consecutive months to 58.7 – its lowest in 150 months, since October 2001.
Dr Thanawat said the CCI regarding economic prospects also fell sharply to 51.5 – its lowest in 28 months or from December 2011.
The centre predicted a continued decline in public consumption until the end of Q2 owing to Thailand’s worsening economy without any sign of improvement.
If the new government takes office in the second half of the year and the appointment of a new panel for the Board of Investment is completed, foreign capital and national spending will flow into the economic system, revitalizing the Thai economy in Q4 and triggering this year’s economic growth to 2-3 percent, he said.
If not, the negative impact will clearly hit the tourism sector and domestic consumption, and possibly resulting in a zero percent economic growth, Dr Thanawat said.
This year’s unemployment problem may affect new graduates as the country has been moving without direction, he said, adding that the widely-speculated possibility of a coup, if it is actually staged, will result in a long-standing political vacuum in case it is rejected by the public.
