Defense minister Sutin Klungsang says the proposal for the prime minister, with the consent of the Cabinet, to suspend top military officers suspected of plotting a putsch needs further debate. When asked what criteria would be used, he said the risk could be assessed on movements and activities within the military prior to an imminent coup. However, he expected several sets of proposals by the Defense Council to be debated by the Cabinet before presentation to Parliament to become law.
Mr Sutin stressed that no law could prevent a coup, but could provide a potential deterrent. Thailand has experienced a military takeover on average every seven years in the past century, not to mention several unsuccessful attempts especially in the 1980s. Generals, defending a putsch, have always said they need to defend the monarchy, end corruption and/or institute much-needed political reform. Typically, they cancel the existing constitution and pass legislation by diktat.
The last coup in 2014 was bloodless and the only one in Thai history not to roll out the tanks into central Bangkok. It was briefly opposed by a few thousand demonstrators but the army quickly assumed control of the capital. Anti-military activity in the provinces was, as usual, minimal or non-existent. The courts and the press were compliant. The coup leaders held a general election in 2019 and retained power before losing the one in 2023 to the radical Move Forward Party (MFP) and the mainstream Pheu Thai. In the event, Pheu Thai made a deal with the smaller pro-military parties to form a coalition, thus excluding the sorely disappointed MFP supporters.
Most Thai commentators believe there is no prospect of a coup during the present parliament as radical agendas – such as reform of the treason laws and serious army reform – are not on the agenda. The next general election is slated for 2027 with some polls suggesting very strong and enduring support for radical policies. Given the coup-culture which is still entwined into Thai culture and even expectations, that could be a challenging year.
