PATTAYA, Thailand – The Thai baht opened at 34.01 per U.S. dollar on March 27, slightly weaker than the previous day’s closing rate of 33.95. The currency is expected to trade within a range of 33.90-34.10 throughout the next 24 hours. Since the previous night, the baht has shown a gradual weakening trend in a sideways-up pattern, fluctuating between 33.93 and 34.03 per dollar.
The depreciation is primarily driven by the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which gained support amid concerns over the U.S. trade policy. Reports indicate that former President Donald Trump is expected to announce a 25% tariff on imported cars on April 2, further fueling market worries about global trade tensions.
Additionally, the U.S. dollar received a boost from stronger-than-expected economic data. February’s durable goods orders increased by 0.9% month-on-month, defying market expectations of a 1.1% contraction. Despite the baht’s weakening trend, strong resistance around the 34.00 level has slowed its depreciation, as market participants engaged in dollar selling. Meanwhile, gold prices (XAU/USD) saw a slight rebound as investors sought safe-haven assets amid rising uncertainties in global trade policies.
Looking ahead, the baht remains at risk of further gradual depreciation, continuing its sideways-up movement. The U.S. dollar is gaining strength, supported by positive economic indicators and trade policy uncertainties. From a technical perspective, if the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) decisively surpasses the 104.4-104.5 range, it could signal a renewed bullish trend for the dollar, leading to continued weakness in the baht.
However, gold prices may provide some relief in slowing the baht’s depreciation. If uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policies persist, demand for gold as a safe-haven asset may increase. Nevertheless, geopolitical risks—including the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East tensions—must be closely monitored, as a reduction in such risks could put downward pressure on gold prices, potentially limiting the baht’s resilience.
Furthermore, risk-averse market sentiment could contribute to additional baht depreciation due to foreign investor outflows from Thai assets. That said, recent shifts in foreign analysts’ outlooks on Thai equities have become more positive, with some upgrading their view to “Overweight.” As a result, the sell-off in Thai stocks may not be as severe as in previous periods, and foreign investors could see market corrections as an opportunity to buy on dips.
If the baht weakens beyond the key resistance level of 34.00 per dollar, it would confirm a renewed downtrend, as indicated by trend-following strategies. The currency’s movement will remain dependent on global trade policies, economic data, and investor sentiment in the coming days.
