Barring a political “accident”, Thais are set to go to the national polls on May 7. The conventional wisdom is that the Shinawatra-backed Pheu Thai opposition party will win enough seats in the 500 member House of Representatives, either alone or in coalition, to unseat the military-backed administration of Prayut Chan-o-cha who led the military coup of 2014. The general became prime minister and went on to win a disputed election in 2019. Pheu Thai optimism now seems a reasonable assumption as the army-led government has failed to deliver on promises, specifically cleaning up corruption or reforming the police, and has only managed a poorer economic growth rate post-covid than her key ASEAN partners.
But pundits would be unwise to write off General Prayut’s chances of maintaining power. Although most opinion polls show Pheu Thai in the lead, Super Poll found Prayut the more popular leader in Bangkok whilst another suggests his party, United Thai Nation Party, is doing well in some southern provinces which used to be the domain of the now-in-decline Democrat party. Pheu Thai is expected to campaign skillfully on populist issues and has millions of party members firmly attached to their bases, especially in the north of the country. But Prayut’s vision of a tightly-ordered democracy guarded by the Royal Thai Army and the monarchy is by no means outmoded in a deeply conservative society.
The real uncertainty lies in the plethora of political parties – over 80 – crowding the upcoming election. While most can be written off, even a small number of independent (or pseudo-independent) MPs can influence the balance of power. Moreover, many political parties in Thailand have very similar policies. Prayut’s United Thai Nation is mirrored in the similarly- monarchist Palang Pracharath Party and they could take votes from each other to their collective detriment. The latter is led by the deputy prime minister in the current coalition.
But on-side rivalries also true of Pheu Thai which will be challenged for opposition votes by the Move Forward Party which is popular with young people and firmly opposed to the lese majeste laws. Then there are larger parties such as Bhumjaithai, the biggest partner in the current government and largely responsible for the decriminalization of cannabis last year, which could swing either way in a disputed election. Thai MPs switch allegiances freely without the “traitor” outcries associated with European or American politics.
Add to these considerations the tradition of money-politics in Thai elections and the fact that boundaries of some constituencies won’t be finalized by the Electoral Commission until March 3. Not to mention the power of the 250 member unelected Senate, appointed by the junta after the 2014 coup, which can also join in the voting for who the prime minister will be. With so many balls up in the air, anything could happen on May 7.
