It is a long time since the social media farang bloggers in Thailand had such a whale of a time anticipating the will-they or won’t-they outcome of the fate awaiting some visitors on temporary visas from August onwards. So let’s spin the casino wheel whilst we wait for the real news.
There are basically three categories of experts. The first will tell you he or she actually does know the answer, but can’t say as it’s a secret until the prime minister has nodded appropriately. These gurus often have a close friend or relative in the immigration bureau, sometimes a high-up officer, who has sworn them to absolute secrecy until the final text appears in the Royal Gazette. Also in this group are the keyboard warriors who don’t claim to possess inside information, but luckily overheard two immigration officers or senior politicians talking in a pub howbeit with raised voices as they had their masks on at the time. Presumably these farang commentators are fluently bi-lingual as Thais never discuss anything of interest in a foreign language.
The second group conjectures that the visa amnesty will be cleanly guillotined by July 31 and hang the consequences. They argue that it’s high time these temporary tourists on extended holidays should leave now as they have already overstayed their welcome in theory if not yet in practice. One Bangkok-based immigration source did lend weight to this approach last week when he apparently stated that security concerns meant that a further extension was “unlikely”. That means still possible. He also urged those with multiple entry visas which were, or might be, still eligible for extension to contact local immigration before the end of the month. Good advice.
The third group has come to the conclusion that the amnesty will be extended by either one month (most votes for that on Thaivisa.com for example) or even two months (occasionally suggested by media you have never previously heard of). The main argument in favour of one month more is that time is pressing and an official announcement would have been made by now if there was to be no reprieve for the luckless stranded. The present writer, who has not had the privilege of secret conversations or midnight phone calls, throws in his lot with this group. For what it’s worth.
The argument for extension is essentially that the issues are complex. Certainly there are tourists in Thailand who would have been back in their home countries by now if the amnesty had never occurred. But there are many other groups on 60 day passes or 90 non-immigrant visas who have legitimate reasons for staying here, such as those with Thai spouses or families or with applications for work permits or student status pending. Not everyone is a beach bum after all. Not to mention the fact that some embassies have already proclaimed they will not issue any agony aunt letters of consular support, with the British and the American embassy cavalry leading the “you are on you own mate” charge as usual. Yet they are apparently still giving them out in Laos and Cambodia, presumably because the scale of the operation is much smaller over there.
A critical point is that while Thai airports are open for departing international flights, the schedules are still sketchy and cancellations regular. But even more crucial is the fact that all Thai borders with neighboring countries are closed to non-nationals. Yet millions of people every year cross those borders for vacations, to visit relatives and to work both legally and illegally. Ordering all those diverse groups (who are mostly not rich guys and gals) just to catch a plane now or risk fines and jail time is an undeliverable strategy to be sure. Real life is not that simplistic. One size seldom fits all.
When the visa amnesty was introduced in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, Thai official sources stated that a key reason was to avoid lengthy and unhealthy queues at immigration offices. An unknown number of stranded folk have already gone. But there are tens of thousands of foreign passport holders, all with individual life stories and situations, waiting to hear the outcome of a Thai government decision due any day now. It’s time to stop spinning that roulette wheel.
