PATTAYA, Thailand – The Thai baht opened the morning of April 10, at 34.17 baht per U.S. dollar, marking a significant appreciation from the previous day’s close of 34.58. Analysts expect the currency to trade in a range of 34.05 to 34.35 over the next 24 hours, though market volatility remains a concern as investors await key economic reports from the United States.
This notable strengthening of the baht has been driven in part by a sharp rally in global gold prices, which have once again surged toward the $3,100 per ounce level. The rise in gold, a traditional safe haven asset, often supports the baht due to strong capital flows into Thailand’s gold markets.
Another factor contributing to the baht’s strength is a slight easing in trade tensions.
U.S. President Donald Trump recently announced a 90-day suspension of reciprocal import tariffs for most countries, with the exception of China. However, tensions between the U.S. and China remain high, especially following a retaliatory tariff hike by the U.S. to 125% on Chinese goods in response to China’s latest trade actions.
Despite the recent gains, the baht’s upward momentum has started to face headwinds. A shift toward risk-on sentiment in global markets is reducing demand for safe-haven assets like gold, while the U.S. dollar continues to gain ground as investors resume interest in U.S.-based risk assets. The Japanese yen, another traditional safe haven, has also weakened as part of this broader trend.
In the near term, the market focus is on the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for March and weekly jobless claims data, both of which could influence expectations around interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. While earlier forecasts anticipated four to five rate cuts in 2025, the market is now pricing in the likelihood of three.
In Asia, there is growing speculation that the Philippine central bank may soon cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.50% due to rising concerns about the impact of global trade frictions amid slowing economic activity.
Looking ahead, although the baht has strengthened significantly overnight, analysts remain cautious about its direction. If the currency decisively breaks through the 34.10 to 34.20 zone, it could enter a sideways or strengthening trend, especially if gold prices continue to rise and U.S. dollar demand softens. However, seasonal factors such as dividend repatriation by foreign investors in April and May may still put downward pressure on the baht.
Meanwhile, the broader outlook is clouded by the unresolved trade conflict between the U.S. and China. The recent hike in U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports could weaken the Chinese yuan, particularly the offshore yuan, which has historically moved in tandem with the baht more than 70% of the time. As a result, any significant depreciation in the yuan could trigger renewed pressure on Asian currencies, including the baht.
