PATTAYA, Thailand – The Thai baht opened at 33.98 THB per dollar this morning (March 25, 2025), weakening from the previous day’s closing level of 33.81 THB per dollar. The baht is expected to fluctuate between 33.85 and 34.05 THB per dollar in the next 24 hours. Since last night, the baht has reversed its trend, weakening and testing the key resistance level of 34.00 THB per dollar, fluctuating between 33.79 and 34.00 THB per dollar. This comes as the US dollar continues to strengthen, buoyed by better-than-expected PMI data for the manufacturing and services sectors in the US for March, compared to European figures.
The US dollar has also gained further support from a “Risk-On” sentiment in US financial markets, as investors have eased concerns over the US’s trade policy stance. This follows indications that President Donald Trump may adopt a more flexible approach to trade, leading to a continued rise in the US 10-year bond yields. This, in turn, has pressured the Japanese yen (JPY), which has weakened past the 150 yen per dollar mark. Additionally, the baht has faced further pressure from a drop of around -30 dollars per ounce in the gold price (XAUUSD). However, the baht’s decline has been slowed as it approaches the 34.00 THB per dollar level, with market participants selling dollars and gold prices rebounding slightly.
In Pattaya, the increasing spending power of both local residents and tourists has contributed to a more optimistic outlook for the economy. With a rising number of international visitors and increased domestic consumption, businesses in the area are seeing greater demand for goods and services, which may help support local economic activity despite the currency fluctuations. This boost in spending power could provide some relief to the baht’s weakening trend, as Pattaya continues to be a key hub for tourism-driven growth.
Looking ahead, market participants will focus on economic outlooks from Germany and the Eurozone, with the release of the IFO Business Climate Index for March, which analysts expect to improve due to increased infrastructure investment and military spending. In the US, attention will be on new home sales data for February, along with comments from Federal Reserve officials, which could impact market expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy.
It is anticipated that the momentum for the baht’s depreciation will continue, in line with the strengthening of the US dollar. Gold prices are also showing signs of retreating, potentially leading to further weakening of the baht. Close monitoring is needed to see if the baht can break through the 34.00 THB per dollar level, as such a move would indicate a more sustained depreciation trend. However, should gold prices recover or stabilize, the baht may not weaken further immediately, as it may remain within a sideways trading range.
Additionally, the baht, along with other Asian currencies, could benefit from a potential shift toward more flexible US trade policies, which may reduce concerns over trade barriers. This could result in positive movement in Asian risk assets, including Thai stocks, as foreign investors return to the market. Moreover, the growing spending power in Pattaya could help stabilize the local economy, mitigating some of the negative effects of currency volatility.
