By the time this edition of Pattaya Mail is published, round one of this year’s first major – the Masters – will have been completed. With the withdrawal of perennial favourite Tiger Woods, favouritism has centred on McIlroy, Scott and Mickelson. Who are the other leading contenders, and what type of game is best suited to the uniqueness that is Augusta National?
Augusta National’s defence is its greens. Their undulations are complex and when this is combined with their speed, it adds up to the toughest greens the pros play.
This course demands careful analysis in determining exactly where, relative to that day’s pin placement, the ball should come to rest on any given green. Next is to execute the very shot that has the ball finish in precisely that spot. Finally, putt the ball with the right amount of pace, and on the right line. And therein lies the two keys to winning the Masters – approach shots and putting.
Most amateur golfers have no idea what it’s like to putt on genuinely fast greens. Stimpmeter speeds at the Masters are thought to be around 12–14 feet, although this information is not released. By comparison, the local Mountain Shadow course, about seven-plus years back, was reckoned to be amongst Pattaya’s fastest. At their best they would have run at circa10 feet. The slopes on Augusta’s greens are more severe than television shows them to be and they are fast, knee-trembling fast.
The effect these putting surfaces have on scores cannot be overestimated. Any flaws in a player’s putting stroke will be agonisingly exposed. The challenge from tee to green still exists, obviously. But fairway width is generous, and if the ball finishes in the second cut – Augusta has no rough – chances are the player can still reach the green. The test, therefore, is to place the tee-ball in a position from where the approach shot can best be played, with a lofted club. In short, be long off the tee, hope for a reasonable lie, determine where on the green to land and hit it there – with an absolutely pure strike.
So, who will win and what is likely to be the winning score?
The second question is the easier one. Here’s a tip that could win you a beer or two when backing what you think will be a tournament’s winning score. By the time you read this, you should know the score, relative to par, of the first round leader. Simply double it and then deduct two or three shots. If the leading first round score is six under par, then the winning score is likely to be 10-under. This tends to work at most tournaments except US Opens; where you should just stick to a score of even-par, or the Open Championship where you never predict the winning score unless you know what the wind is going to do, on what day, and from which direction it will do it.
As to who will win, well, that is a far harder question. Consider the following:
Length: The course has been lengthened by 500 yards over the last five years. At 7,445 yards it is genuinely long. It normally has roll. Enough of it will permit the use of a more lofted club for the approach shot, and that could be vital.
GIR: Greens in Regulation is a crucial part of scoring well at Augusta. In the last seven years, five of the winners have ranked 1st or 2nd for tournament GIR. Rather reinforces the need for pure ball-striking.
Experience: This year’s field boasts a record number of Masters first-timers; 23. History states first-timers rarely win at Augusta. The first two Masters aside, it has only been done once before – Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. So the lack of Augusta National experience is likely to count against many of this year’s form players such as Jordan Speith, Harris English, Victor Dubuisson and Patrick Reed.
Putting: Enough has been said.
Of course there are many other factors worth considering, but limiting these to length, GIR, Masters experience and putting, my top ten in terms of attractive odds (paddypower.com) would be:
- Rory McIlroy; 9/1
- Phil Mickelson; 12/1
- Jason Day; 16/1
- Matt Kuchar; 18/1
- Sergio Garcia; 22/1
- Zach Johnson; 28/1
- Charl Schwartzel; 33/1
- Luke Donald; 40/1
- Angel Cabrera; 50/1
- Lee Westwood; 50/1
The obvious omission is Adam Scott (10/1). As good a ball-striker as he is, I think his putting demons have returned at just the wrong time for him to defend his title.
To the Augusta National Golf Club, who forgo broadcast fees so the viewer gets a near commercial-free coverage of top-level golf; on behalf of those of us who get to watch the Masters live on TV, thank you!
Enjoy.
