BANGKOK, Thailand – The Association of Investment Analysts reveals that most analysts expect the Bank of Thailand (BOT) to cut the interest rate only once in 2025. The anticipated rate cut reflects concerns about Thailand’s stock market, with factors such as foreign fund outflows, domestic political instability, and global geopolitical challenges weighing heavily. Analysts are also focusing on U.S. economic policies under Trump 2.0 and Thailand’s domestic stimulus measures for Q1 2025.
Sombat Narawutchai, Secretary-General of the Association, shared the results of a survey among 26 analysts and fund managers regarding their investment outlook for Q1 2025. The survey revealed that the majority of analysts forecast Thailand’s GDP growth to be between 2.4% and 3.3%, with oil prices averaging $74.14 per barrel and a risk-free rate of 2.60%. The risk premium for the Thai stock market stands at 7.82%.
Among the positive factors driving investment sentiment, analysts pointed to Thailand’s domestic interest rate outlook (76.92%), corporate earnings growth (73.08%), and the domestic economy (69.23%). However, negative factors include foreign fund outflows (74.07%), domestic political challenges (69.23%), and international political instability (61.54%).
Looking ahead, analysts are closely monitoring the potential impact of U.S. policies under Donald Trump and Thailand’s economic stimulus measures. Regarding BOT’s policy rate forecast for the end of 2025, 54% of respondents expect the rate to be at 2%, with a possibility of a further reduction to 1.75%. Other predictions suggest the rate could stay at 2.25% or decrease to 1.50%.
The analysts also projected an average EPS of 94.95 baht per share for the Thai stock market in 2025, with a 12.22% expected growth in earnings per share (EPS). The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index is expected to close Q1 2025 at 1,449 points, with an annual range of 1,322–1,581 points, ultimately closing at 1,556 points by the end of the year.
Investment recommendations include diversifying portfolios, with allocations to short-term deposits (10.72%), bond funds (22.00%), international equities (29.56%), Thai equities (22.52%), real estate (6.90%), gold (8.10%), and others such as Bitcoin (0.20%).
Stocks favored by analysts include AOT (airport operator), ADVANC (telecom), BDMS (hospital group), and CPALL (retail), while automotive, electronics, and petrochemical stocks should be avoided. Analysts also recommend government policies that focus on infrastructure investment, promoting New S-Curve industries, and boosting foreign investments to improve the economic outlook.
Sombat added that the appointment of the new Governor of the Bank of Thailand is unlikely to have a major impact on the stock market, as policy decisions are largely made by the institution.
