The Center for International Trade Studies of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce forecasts that Thai exports will return to positive growth this year, expanding by 3.6 percent, after contracting 7 percent in 2020.
Center director Att Pisanwanich explained that vaccination against COVID-19 among Thai trading partners should stimulate their economies but acknowledged that the efficacy of inoculation must be monitored. If vaccinations prove ineffective, infection rates could remain at 700-800,000 people daily worldwide and leave Thai exports down 0.8 percent this year. Other factors that must be watched include logistics costs, which may rise four to five times due to a shortage of containers, and a 20 percent hike in cross-border transport fees in light of COVID-19 restrictions.
The Thai export sector is also still dependent on existing trade markets such as Europe, China, Japan and ASEAN, which have imposed stricter checks on the Kingdom’s imports. The center has suggested exporters implement their own checks and work with the state to create a COVID-19 free mark to boost international confidence. (NNT)
