BANGKOK, Thailand – The National Earthquake Research Center is closely monitoring the fault line in Kanchanaburi, as experts warn that if a major earthquake occurs, Bangkok could experience severe tremors due to its soft soil basin.
Professor Pennung Warnitchai, director of the center, shared insights at a seminar titled “Overcoming Seismic Disasters: Innovation for a Safer Future in Thailand”, organized by the Thailand Science Research and Innovation (TSRI).
Dr. Pennung revealed that 20 years ago, his research team had predicted the possibility of a significant earthquake along the Sagaing Fault in Myanmar, which ultimately materialized on March 28, 2025. He emphasized that while the aftershocks of this recent event will gradually subside, other potential seismic threats remain.
According to research conducted over the past two decades, experts have identified three major earthquake scenarios that could affect Bangkok:
- A magnitude 7–7.5 earthquake along a fault in Kanchanaburi, with seismic waves traveling toward Bangkok.
- A magnitude 8 earthquake along Myanmar’s Sagaing Fault.
- A magnitude 8.5–9 earthquake in the Andaman Sea’s subduction zone.
The March 28 earthquake in Myanmar corresponds to the second scenario. However, scientists caution that this does not rule out the possibility of the other scenarios occurring in the future. The frequency of such events is uncertain, as some fault lines may take 300–400 years to trigger a major quake.
Dr. Pennung stressed that Bangkok and its metropolitan area sit on a giant soft-soil basin, which can amplify earthquake vibrations three to four times more than in harder soil areas. High-rise buildings in the capital would experience slow, intense swaying movements, increasing the risk of structural damage.
The Kanchanaburi fault line remains a particular concern, as a magnitude 7–7.5 earthquake in this region could send shockwaves directly toward Bangkok. Scientists urge urban planners and engineers to ensure future buildings are designed to withstand seismic activity, enhancing the city’s earthquake preparedness.
