BANGKOK, Thailand – The gold market has experienced a significant downturn in September, with the Gold Price Confidence Index dropping to 68.97 points, a decrease of 4.01 points or 5.49% from August’s 72.98 points. This decline is attributed to several factors: concerns over potential interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve, the strengthening of the baht, profit-taking by funds, and signs of a global economic recovery.
Key Insights:
Market Sentiment: Concerns over potential Federal Reserve rate adjustments have contributed to the cautious outlook. Additionally, the strengthening baht and recovering global economy have influenced investor sentiment.
Consumer Demand: Among a sample of 306 respondents, 47% plan to buy gold in September, while 29% do not intend to purchase, and 24% are uncertain. This indicates a mixed outlook on gold buying behavior.
Gold Traders’ Predictions: Out of 13 major gold traders and futures contract brokers, 46% expect gold prices to rise in September, 39% anticipate a decline, and 15% predict prices will remain stable compared to August.
Price Forecast:
Global Gold Spot Prices: Expected to range between $2,456 and $2,566 per ounce.
Domestic Gold Bars (96.5% purity): Anticipated to be between 39,500 and 41,300 baht per baht weight.
Baht Exchange Rate: Predicted to fluctuate between 33.45 and 34.75 baht per dollar.
Investment Advice:
For September, if gold prices stabilize within the forecast range, there could be gradual price increases to test key resistance levels. However, if gold fails to breach these levels, profit-taking might occur. Investors are advised to closely monitor market conditions and factors affecting gold prices to make informed decisions.
