BANGKOK, Thailand – Professor Dr. Narumon Pinyosinwat, Minister of Agriculture and Cooperatives, has announced projections for Thailand’s agricultural GDP to grow by 1.8-2.8% in 2025. The ministry is advancing seven strategies to overcome challenges, including climate change, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and stricter environmental trade barriers.
The Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE) reported a 1.1% contraction in the agricultural economy in 2024 compared to 2023, with declines in the crops, fisheries, and agricultural services sectors. However, the livestock and forestry sectors showed growth. The crops sector shrank by 1.7%, largely due to the El Niño phenomenon causing droughts and extreme heat, while La Niña later brought heavy rainfall, floods, and flash floods that damaged agricultural outputs in many northern and northeastern regions.
Thailand’s agriculture in 2024 faced diverse challenges, including climate change, intensified geopolitical tensions, trade policy shifts, and environmental trade measures. Major global players, such as the U.S. and China—Thailand’s key trading partner—also encountered economic pressures. Additionally, rising costs of production inputs such as fuel, fertilizers, and animal feed have impacted competitiveness and pricing.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global economic growth at 3.2% for both 2024 and 2025. Key regions like the U.S., Eurozone, Japan, China, and ASEAN-5 are expected to grow by 2.2%, 1.2%, 1.1%, 4.5%, and 4.5%, respectively.
Key Factors Supporting Agricultural Growth in 2025:
Increased rainfall from La Niña: Expected to continue until February 2025, benefiting crop cultivation.
Thailand’s economic expansion: Driven by domestic consumption, tourism, and exports.
Global demand for agricultural products: Rising due to food security concerns caused by global disasters and supply chain disruptions.
Government policies: Focused on enhancing agricultural productivity, technological innovation, water resource management, logistics, and risk management.
Risks and Concerns:
Climate change impacts: Including extreme weather events that could harm agriculture.
High production input costs: Affecting global competitiveness.
Global economic slowdown: Potentially reducing demand for Thai agricultural exports.
Geopolitical conflicts: Hindering economic recovery and trade.
Tougher trade regulations: Particularly environmental and health standards from the EU and U.S.
U.S.-China trade tensions: Affecting global supply chains and Thailand’s agricultural exports.
Seven Development Strategies for Agriculture:
Natural disaster preparedness: Planning and proactive measures in collaboration with stakeholders.
Agricultural insurance: Promoting crop insurance to mitigate risks and stabilize farmers’ incomes.
Modern technology and innovation: To reduce costs, increase productivity, and create value-added agricultural products.
Sustainable farming: Adopting the BCG (Bio-Circular-Green) model, managing resources, addressing PM 2.5, and promoting soil restoration.
High-value agricultural products: Developing branding and storytelling for provinces and districts, emphasizing quality production.
Global monitoring tools: Utilizing big data for analysis, forecasting, and risk management.
Regulatory adjustments: Reviewing trade regulations of partner countries to ensure competitiveness.
Thailand’s agricultural sector covers 147.73 million rai (46.7% of the country’s total area) and supports over 30 million people, including 19.72 million agricultural workers and 7.9 million farming households. The Ministry of Agriculture aims to ensure that Thai farmers achieve sustainable livelihoods under the motto, “Enough to eat, enough to use, and sufficient income.” (TNA)
