Consumer spending may drop by at least 100 billion baht if a new coronavirus outbreak lasts for two months, possibly sinking the economy in the current quarter.
University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce president Thanavath Phonvichai said as the country deals with a new wave of infections and the presence of a highly transmissible variant first identified in Britain, consumer sentiment is expected to drop for at least three months before picking up if the Covid-19 situation eases quickly.
He expected the outbreak to be controlled within two months and for consumer spending to be cut by 60 billion baht to 100 billion baht, or 0.3-0.5% of gross domestic product (GDP). There is a risk that the economy will shrink in the second quarter, rather than grow 1-2% as earlier forecast.
Growth this year could be only 2.0-2.5%, not 2.8% as earlier predicted, if the outbreak cannot be contained within two months. (NNT)
