BANGKOK, Thailand – Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS strategist Poon Panichpibool expects the Thai baht to move between 34.20-34.85 THB/USD this week, with today’s range forecast at 34.30-34.55 THB/USD.
The baht opened at 34.44 THB/USD this morning (November 25), slightly appreciating from last week’s close of 34.52 THB/USD. The currency has been trading sideways, influenced by several factors:
- U.S. Economic Data: The dollar gained some support from stronger-than-expected November PMI reports for manufacturing and services.
- Gold Prices: Rising gold prices, nearing $2,720 per ounce (+$30 per ounce), have bolstered the baht as Thailand benefits from gold trade flows.
- Market Dynamics: Profit-taking on long USD positions by investors limited the dollar’s strength.
While the dollar reached a new high last week, reduced foreign investor sell-offs in Thai assets and strong gold prices helped the baht stabilize.
Key Focus for This Week:
– U.S. Inflation Data: Core PCE inflation reports could influence Federal Reserve rate expectations.
– Eurozone CPI: Inflation data may drive the euro and dollar’s movements.
– Geopolitical Tensions: The escalating Russia-Ukraine war could spur safe-haven demand for the dollar, adding volatility.
The baht is likely to trade sideways or strengthen, depending on gold price trends and the Chinese yuan’s performance. Meanwhile, the dollar could find support from its safe-haven appeal and market views that the Fed might reduce interest rates less aggressively than other central banks.
