BANGKOK, Thailand – The Thai baht opened at 33.58 per US dollar, strengthening slightly from the previous day’s close of 33.59 per dollar on March 18. The currency is expected to move within a range of 33.50–33.75 THB/USD over the next 24 hours.
The baht has been fluctuating within a sideways range of 33.57–33.66 per dollar, with brief moments of depreciation in response to a sharp decline in gold prices (XAUUSD). The US dollar and 10-year US bond yields rose, following a report showing a modest 0.2% increase in retail sales for February, slightly below market expectations. However, core retail sales, excluding gasoline and automobiles, rose by 0.5%, slightly outperforming predictions.
Despite brief depreciation, the baht strengthened again after the US dollar weakened against the euro (EUR) and the British pound (GBP), driven by positive risk sentiment in European financial markets and optimism surrounding potential progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks. The baht also benefitted from a rebound in gold prices, which climbed back to the $3,000 per ounce mark after the dollar weakened.
Looking ahead, European market players will focus on the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for March, expected to improve amid hopes for economic stimulus measures from the German government. In the US, market participants will await reports on industrial production for February, housing market data, and GDP growth projections for Q1 2025 from the Federal Reserve’s Atlanta branch (GDPNow).
The baht is expected to continue moving in a sideways pattern, with support levels around 33.50–33.60 per dollar. Some importers are expected to buy dollars at these levels, as the baht strengthens. Gold prices may face downward pressure as the market lacks new supporting factors, and the growing risk-on sentiment in global financial markets may limit further gold price gains.
Foreign investor flows in the Thai capital market remain volatile, with recent bond sales by foreign investors and unclear stock market sentiment. Investors are also awaiting key central bank meetings, starting with the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on Wednesday, followed by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting from the US Federal Reserve.
In the event of the baht depreciating, the downside is likely to be limited around resistance levels of 33.70–33.80 per dollar until the market receives new information.
