BANGKOK, Thailand – SCB Financial Markets (SCB FM) forecasts a modest depreciation of the Thai baht through the end of this year, with a more significant weakening expected in the first half of 2025 due to a strong U.S. economy and a slow recovery in Europe. Additionally, global trade disruptions from tariffs are likely to impact regional economies, further pressuring the baht.
However, SCB FM predicts that the baht could appreciate in the second half of 2025, driven by potential U.S. interest rate cuts, lower global oil prices, rising gold prices, and a potential influx of capital into emerging markets, setting a year-end range of 33.50-34.50 baht per U.S. dollar.
Regarding Thai interest rates, SCB FM expects the Bank of Thailand (BOT) to cut rates once more during its February 2025 meeting due to worsening credit conditions and increased risks to the Thai economy, particularly from the potential impact of the “Trump 2.0” policy.
