Siam Commercial Bank’s Economic Intelligence Center has readjusted up its projection for Thailand’s GDP growth at 3% this year and 3.7% next year, thanks to the recovery of tourism and private consumption.
Mr. Somprawin Manprasert, SCB’s First Executive Vice President, Chief Economist, and Chief Strategy Officer of the Economic Intelligence Center said the adjustment was made to reflect the revenue from the tourism and related sectors, and continuous growth in private consumption.
According to the EIC, Thailand is expected to welcome 10.3 million international visitors this year, and 28.3 million international visitors next year.
The EIC expects however for the Thai economy to take another 2 years to recover at full speed, and for the country’s Monetary Policy Committee to further raise the policy rate at increments of 0.25%.
The Monetary Policy Committee is expected to make these changes in September and November, making the policy rate reached 1.25% towards the end of this year. The committee is expected to readjust the policy rate three times next year until the rate reaches 2%.
Thailand’s economy continues to face challenges from the global economic slowdown, particularly in the United States and European Union which suppresses the country’s exports and investments. The zero-Covid policy and property crisis, together with the high inflation rate affecting the purchasing power of households and businesses, have contributed to higher than the expected economic slowdown in China. Uncertainties in Thailand’s politics may affect the confidence in the manufacturing and investment sectors, making it necessary for the government to continue providing help to the vulnerable population. (NNT)
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