BANGKOK, Thailand – The University of Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) forecasts that Thailand’s GDP growth in 2025 may fall below 2%, after U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a higher-than-expected retaliatory tariff of 37% on Thai imports. This will likely reduce the value of Thai exports by approximately 359.1 billion baht and severely impact both exports and tourism.
Dr. Thanavath Phonvichai, Senior Advisor of the UTCC’s Economic and Business Forecasting Center, evaluated the economic impact of the new reciprocal tariffs. The new tariffs will take effect on April 9, 2025, and exceed previous estimates of 10-15%. The additional tariffs on Thai exports to the U.S. will lead to a reduction of approximately 1.93% of GDP, with direct losses from exports to the U.S. alone totaling around 300.2 billion baht. Additionally, indirect effects from exports to China, Mexico, and Canada in the U.S. supply chain will lead to a further reduction of 58.9 billion baht.
The expected decrease in overall export value could reduce Thailand’s economic growth by 1-2%. This leaves the country vulnerable to a GDP growth rate of under 2% in 2025, as Thailand heavily depends on exports and tourism. Exports to the U.S. account for 20% of the country’s GDP, and this decline may prevent export growth from reaching the targeted 2%. Furthermore, global tourism will slow down, with international arrivals potentially falling short of the target of 38-39 million visitors to Thailand.
The UTCC emphasizes that future developments will depend on how countries, including Thailand and the U.S., negotiate and whether the tariff hikes are eased, urging close monitoring of the situation. (TNA)
