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Money matters: Scott Campbell’s views on Thailand
(Written at the start of May 2004)
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
Continuing our mini-series on the views imparted by
Scott Campbell, the portfolio manager whose ‘Growth Fund’ has been
judged by S&P to be the best in its sector for the last 6 years,
during his first ever visit to Bangkok, last month we turn our attention,
once again, to gold and bonds
This research is based on research provided by The Aden
Forecast, internationally renowned analysts and market commentators and
CLSA technical analyst Chris Roberts. Gold Bullion has been attracting
significant press comment over the past few months and we have been
recommending exposure since late 2002 and more aggressively in 2003.
The first phase of the Gold bull market commenced 3
years ago, is well entrenched BUT has been constrained to the US$ at this
stage. The recent trend of US$ down, Gold up has a very strong correlation
and is likely to remain in place until we see a major policy stance change
from the US Federal Reserve or Asian Central Banks. However, the short
term strengthening of the US$ has clearly been short term bearish for Gold
and a buying opportunity in the mega Gold trend. The gold price has
remained above key technical levels in the recent sell off and bullion is
also outperforming gold companies YTD and this is expected to continue as
the high beta speculation turns to currency fear.
Since there has been clearly range bound price activity
of Euro: Gold over the past two years. In fact, gold is actually at lower
levels in Aussie dollar and Rand over the past 2 years. The second phase
of the bull market will commence when the gold bullion price begins
hitting highs in all major currencies plus the producer currencies such as
A$, C$ and Rand. This looks nearer to reality as convergence on a rebased
basis is clear. Focusing on this Euro and not US$ price action is
therefore the most important point now.
Research from CLSA clearly shows the rally in euro gold
from the 1999 low peaked at 348, just below the 1993 high of 358. Support
starts at 303, then 285. A break above 358 would be a clear sign that gold
is bullish in the two most important currencies. The price at the time of
writing was 318.09 so watch this cross rather than the US$ price over the
coming months for a clear break above 358.
Astute investment strategist Richard Russell advocates
the following: Gold still testing the 400 level. Has gold won? Are the
stocks in a buying range? I’d add a little more bullion here. But what
we could see is gold and the gold shares moving around in a trading range
for a while - at least until those 200-day moving averages climb higher
towards the actual prices. This old chestnut is one that will remain a
debate for many years to come. The bond market is the best indicator of
what is happening now, and what will happen in the future on the issue.
Richard Russell had this to say on the subject during
the week. “This impending battle of inflation vs. deflation is going to
be one of the most critical economic confrontations seen in decades.
Frankly, I don’t know how it’s going to turn out - and neither does
anyone else. In fact, I’d say 99 percent of the US population is unaware
that it’s even happening. The inflation-deflation battle will express
itself in waves - of first inflation, then deflation.”
These are two mighty forces militating towards
deflation, 1) Overproduction brought on by the entrance of China, India
and much of Asia into the global economy, (2) Massive US and world debt,
which must be carried with the help of low interest rates, if indeed this
debt (particularly the US debt) can be successfully carried at all.
And of course, we have the forces of inflation working
to reduce the power of overproduction and deflation via the printing
presses of the Federal Reserve and the central banks of the world. Without
the discipline of gold, the central banks can create any amount of money
they want any time they want. However, the central banks cannot control
the “bond market vigilantes.” When the vigilantes become frightened
about inflation, they dump bonds and rates go up.
Given the huge number of jobs reported as being created
two weeks ago and the positive ISM data, the US Treasury market has
experienced a big sell off so far in April. The 10 year note has moved
form 3.8% yield to 4.34% and the long 30 year note has moved to 5.15%. We
at Optimal Fund Management have always maintained that there must be an
interest rate spike to confirm the long term “big picture” of
deflation (Kondratieff Wave Theory). It is now apparent that inflation is
being targeted successfully by central banks and the bond market is
becoming increasingly nervous. In fact many argue we already have
inflation. Legendary Investor Jim Rogers who co-founded Quantum with
George Soros believes inflation is alive and well, particularly in
commodities and property, with companies also starting to increase prices
from steel pipes to toilet paper.
Notwithstanding the fact that bonds have now moved
below their 200 day moving average and the foreign central bank buying, or
lack of to be more specific, as another technical reason for bond
weakness, the US economic data is leading fundamentalists to believe that
a Fed interest rate hike is coming sooner rather than latter.
Bank and other financial holdings in US Treasuries is
the other big unknown, with banks alone buying US$145bn of bonds in the
past 6 months. As the price drops they will be forced sellers along with
the delta hedgers – Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Jobs data is seasonally
strong from now until June and along with the liquidation of carry trades,
mortgage backed securities, central bank holdings etc will all put
pressure on bonds and interest rates for some time to come.
Bill Gross, the bond guru from Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO)
is also very anti US bonds and is recommending European debt instruments.
In fact he goes further and is recommending ABT portfolios. Anything but
Treasuries! The turn in the US bond market is critical and recent weakness
is the equivalent of a Fed rate hike by the free market. Whilst a full
scale meltdown is unlikely to be imminent, it is hardly a compelling
investment case either. It is however the bond market’s effect on
currency, equity and property markets that is the real concern.
The above data and research was compiled from sources believed to be
reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its officers can
accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above article nor
bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any actions
taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For more
information please contact Graham Macdonald on graham@mbmg-international
.com
Snap Shots: Seven Days
in the Kingdom
by Harry Flashman
Trawling through my bookshelves I (re)discovered a
rather fine book, Seven Days in the Kingdom (Times Editions in Singapore
published in 1987, ISBN 0-920691-37-4).
 With
words by the eminent historian William Warren and photography by 50
invited photographers it is a very large book. The concept was that 50
photographers, from all over the world, were let loose in the Kingdom of
Thailand for seven days. Their brief was to record something of Thailand
in that week in March 1987. That ‘something’ was whatever took their
photographic fancy.
Of course they were allowed to shoot much more than one
image, and in fact the 50 photographers submitted 85,000 images at the end
of that week. By simple division, that works out at an average of 242
shots per day, per photographer! And therein lies the first maxim of
photography. If you want to get some great shots - take plenty of film
with you! If some of the best photographers in the world shoot 250
photographs a day, just to make sure they got some good shots for a book,
what are your chances taking one shot of the Tapae Gate in Chiang Mai, the
Big Swing in Bangkok or the Big Buddha overlooking Pattaya? At that rate,
if you got a good shot, it was a fluke!
It was also worthwhile just looking through the book to
see some of the techniques used by the fab 50. This is a method that I
have proposed more than once in this column. Have a look at what others
are doing - not to slavishly copy, but to see ‘how’ others have
approached different subjects.
The first noticeable fact looking critically at the
published photographs was that there were very few photographs taken with
flash. There were some with ‘flash fill’, but even the night photos
were taken with ambient light. And they all ‘worked’. Sunsets, the
Chedi in Nakhon Pathom, inside a disco in Bangkok, hawker food stalls at
night, a fishing boat returning in the evening or inside a temple in
Mukdahan. By using the available light, be that from electric bulbs,
candles, moonlight or streetlights, the photos all have that ‘something
different’. So my second maxim for photography is ‘Turn the auto-flash
off’. Just try it and you will begin to get some good images. Even
hand-held with a little blur is better than what I call the stark
‘startled rabbit’ in the gun-sight shots.
With 50 photographers all trying to outdo each other
(professional photographers are a very competitive bunch) you might expect
that there would be a great variation in the types of lenses used by the
top lensmen. Now while there were shots taken with wide angle lenses, and
some telephoto shots, there were no ‘extreme’ focal lengths. No
‘fish-eyes’, no 500 mm mirror lenses. The majority of shots were taken
with what are known as ‘standard’ 50 mm focal length lenses. The lens
that gives the closest to the coverage of the human eye.
So that brings me to my third maxim of photography.
Make the subject the talking point in any photo, not the lens you took it
with. By all means, use focal length to isolate your subject from the
background, but don’t use a zoom lens just because you are too lazy to
walk up close enough!
Some of the shots in the book were obviously posed or
set up. A couple of photographers even traipsing around northern Thailand
with drop-sheets to take shots of hill tribe people, but most of the shots
were more towards photojournalism - the ‘f8 and be there’ style of
approach. Sunset over the Mekong, with a fishing boat gliding by; Likay
performers back stage, or worshippers at the reclining Buddha in Ayutthaya.
You get these shots by being there, selecting the viewpoint you think will
make a good shot and then waiting.
The photograph this week is a prime example of ‘f8 and be there’,
this wonderfully evocative dark sky was taken by my wife, through the
windscreen of the car with a point and shoot camera, on a trip to Bangkok!
Modern Medicine: Take two aspirins and ring me in the morning
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
One of the commonest alarm bells to tell
us that something is wrong is pain. And sometimes that can be with a capital
P. Pain is often the presentation for many illnesses and physical
conditions. For example, the symptom of a fractured rib is pain on deep
breathing, coughing or sudden movement. The symptom of prostatic secondaries
can be pains in the spine. Pain!
In fact, our skeletons are responsible for many of our
pains. Fractures and degenerative conditions such as osteoarthritis are
certainly high in the list of likely suspects. Gout, which produces an
inflammation commonly in the joint of the big toe gives exquisite pain -
just ask anyone who has had it!
But surely it must be possible for us to lead a pain-free
existence in this modern world of space travel and nonotechnology? In actual
fact, it is possible to be pain-free, but at too great a cost. The chemicals
that are strong enough to mask the pain are also strong enough to render
your brain inoperative when taken over a long period. Turning one’s
patients into “zombies” is not thought of as ‘good’ medicine.
I do also realise that there are times when you want
“temporary” respite from pain. The footballer with a fractured finger
can have local anaesthetic injected into the fracture so that he can do the
two 45 minutes halves plus injury time and penalty shootout. That’s it.
Not tablets for the next three weeks!
So why do we have “pain”? Pain is actually inbuilt
into our systems for an important purpose. Damage control! Pain is what
stops us damaging our bodies even further than they are damaged already.
Let’s go back to the broken rib scenario. Most fractured ribs are
“cracks” along the long axis of the bone, not a complete break right
through, so the ends are not flapping around in the breeze. The pain stops
the unfortunate person from doing too much and totally breaking it right
through. Pain has a protective influence. With the person who has joint
pains or gout, the purpose of the pain is to stop further damage to an
already “crumbling” joint or one filled with sharp crystals. Pain makes
you rest it, so that it can heal. When you stop to think about it, pain is
good for us.
However, there are also chronic pain situations, and
these are harder to deal with. Particularly when the pain is coming from a
permanently damaged skeleton, or from a condition we cannot “cure”. This
is where pain management comes in, and it is a fairly skilful region of
medicine, let me assure you. Practitioners in this have to really understand
what the patient is going through. What happens is that we (or you) have to
maximise an ability of the body’s nervous system known as
“attenuation”. This is where the nervous system receives so much pain
stimuli that eventually the pain receptors “give up” through the
overuse. However, getting to that stage is a long and painful road itself.
Chemical assistance is needed, but it is not just a case
of taking big dose analgesics. In actual fact, much of the work in this area
is with taking agents to slow down nerve transmission and other agents such
as anti-inflammatories, which work with pain killers to make them more
potent at a lower dose (so the brain doesn’t get mussed up)! It’s not
easy. If you are suffering, you have my sympathies.
Learn to Live to Learn: International schools; what are they?
by George Benedikt
As something of an increasing phenomenon
of the latter half of the 20th century, there is
considerable debate in educational circles about what actually constitutes an
“international” school. Can a school that calls itself ‘American” or
“British” also be international? How can a school call itself
“international” when it offers only a national curriculum of one country?
Does an international school have to offer an international
curriculum? Do they need to bother with what is often referred to as
‘international understanding”? You might very well think that an
international school should have a multi-national student body (probably made up
of majority of home nationals). Perhaps you consider that it is important that
teachers also reflect the multi-national nature of the school? Or not? Probably,
it depends on who you are, where you from, where you are now, where you’re
going, and as far as this newspaper is concerned, it depends on what you want.
Governance
There are plenty of different models of governance in
international education, but the governance of a school will almost always
include a board, a principal, senior teachers and if you’re lucky, parents and
if the school really cares, then maybe the students will be represented as well.
Some systems work very well, some less well, depending on
many factors, such as the type of school, the size of the school and the
constitution of the board.
However, a school will function best if the academic
day-to-day operational aspects of the school are left in the hands of the
principal and the senior management team (usually made up of senior teachers)
providing (and this is a big but) the principal and the management team are
suitably qualified, efficient and honest.
The board relies on the principal for an accurate appraisal
of school life and it has been known for figures in senior positions to doctor
evidence about their school for the purpose of self-aggrandisement, self
preservation and personal gain or to eliminate the presence of another member of
staff who is perceived to be a ‘threat’. Although rare, this is most likely
to happen when the board is ‘remote’ (such as based in another country) but
is less likely when the board is drawn from the local community.
The form of communication between board, principal and all
interest groups in the school is vital to a school’s success. Sometimes, a
board can just be a sole proprietor – the owner of the school. Regarded by
some as less democratic, this system can nonetheless have significant positive
advantages. An individual owner with passion, vision and commitment to their
school who is ready to allow their principal autonomy over operational school
issues is likely to be successful.
At the heart of all school governance, as in national
governance, there lies one truism. Openness, transparency, and honesty and above
all, integrity, are essential values in helping to create a successful and
thriving community.
The head teacher/principal/director/superintendent
This person (called by different names depending on the type
of school) is without question the most important person in the school. As a
customer, they should be the one showing you around or, if they delegate that
responsibility, the person should have in-depth knowledge of all aspects of the
operation of the school. If they don’t, something’s wrong.
Head teachers, and preferably head of sections, should have
further degrees (Masters at least). If they do not, you probably want to know
why not. A very good question, in light of recent research that shows that the
average incumbency for an international principal is less than three years is,
“how long have they been principal, and where were they before?”
Surprisingly often, principals can end up in their position
by default, either because an appointed principal refuses to take up the
position (itself a cause for concern) or if there is a strong element of crisis
management in a school which leads to a panic appointment by a remote board of
governors.
Clearly, in these circumstances, you want to know but more
importantly, it is your right to know! Ask politely about how the head teacher
was recruited, what recruitment and interview process exists for senior teachers
and what is the policy (which should be written somewhere) on recruitment and
retainment of staff.
A head teacher should certainly have relevant experience of
senior positions in more than one school (other than the one they are currently
working in) and will probably have significant experience of areas of either
study or work outside education. Ask them to recite the School Mission
Statement, then the Mission Statements of any externally accredited courses they
run. Then ask, “How do you teach that?”
Next week: Accreditation
Send questions, comments and/or suggestions to [email protected]
 Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
I’ve read your column in great humor for a year, enjoying especially the
bar-girl heartbreak letters. Of course if a bar girl is one’s personal
standard, the world delivers accordingly. But look who’s crying now! The
tables turned and I am blindsided by what a three-year Thailand veteran
calls “the stealth hooker.” And stealth she was. After a many month
courtship I recently learned this when she said we could get married if I
first bought us a house. We had spoken of marriage but this was a new twist.
Neither a problem for me nor unreasonable for her given my brief survey of
Thai values to marriage and property. Unfortunately her request came from
the impetus of a similar competing offer from a Japanese gentleman of even
longer engagement and considerable financial support! Ouch. Blinders
removed, I am now hearing many distressing stealth hooker stories. In my
case this was not a bar meeting. No immediate sex or requests for money. She
was part owner in a very small business. Nice car. Stylish yet conservative
dress. I never guessed they were all yen based. So I beg to differ with your
advice of months ago: to do in Thailand what you do in your home country to
meet women more committed to love than cash. My experience has been, what
works in Munich is not the same as New York, Los Angeles nor London. And
certainly not Thailand. Even the upscale clubs here are filled with stealth
women with several unsuspecting male wallets, college girls with multiple
“patrons”, and business women with a world bank range of foreign
backers. I ask you, to what exactly should my radar be tuned to detect these
stealth hookers? Tattoos alone are not enough of an alarm. And where might
those of us committed to honest true hearts go or do to feel some confidence
that 80 percent of the women there (a figure quoted to me by both farang and
Thai men) are neither below my radar nor my high standards?
Captain High Standards
Dear Captain High Standards,
Look on the bright side, Petal. I am sure you never thought that you would
be saved from a fate worse than death by a Japanese gentleman rescuing you
from a lass with a yen for yen! Your “brief survey of Thai values to
marriage and property” was flawed, my Petal. The Thai lady who insists on
such pre-nuptial agreements is not your kind of girl. However, consider this
- the qualities of ambition, desire to get ahead and a wish to acquire money
would be considered good attributes in a business partner/wife. But
unfortunately not so admirable in a girlfriend, where you could be the
supplier of the keys to the money box. Agreed? When there is great disparity
in personal wealth, one side has to be more vulnerable than the other.
How do you tune your radar to show up your ‘stealth hookers’? Difficult,
Captain High Standards, difficult. You are looking for a lady with no
financial needs, and you have to ask yourself, would such a person want to
go to your “upscale clubs”? Would such a person even be looking for a
Captain High Standards? I was told by a young lady, without personal
financial means, that it was just as easy to love where the money was, as it
was to love where the paupers congregate. So there is no easy answer.
Undoubtedly you will have more chance of success in finding the “honest
true heart” outside the bar scene, but there is no guarantee of success.
The answer lies in the Latin phrase “festina lente”. Hasten slowly!
“Many months” is not enough to really get to know somebody, and when
given an ultimatum that it’s house (or gold, or motorbike, or flotilla of
water buffaloes) before marriage, that should have been enough of a warning.
Buy your Japanese man a beer. He deserves it (in more ways than one!).
Dear Hillary,
It has taken me many months to get up enough courage to tell you that I am
in love with you. Even though I have never seen you in the flesh, I dream
about you every night. You have no idea how hard it is, living with
someone’s image in your mind, and not know if you will respond to such a
romantic notion. Can we meet? I don’t care where, pick the most expensive
restaurant, and I will be there. Our table is the one with the champagne on
ice and the Belgian chocolates, but just say yes.
Always yours, Lovesick
Dear Always yours, Lovesick,
My poor Petal, it is time you cut down the dose of the daily Vitamin V you
are obviously taking. It is making life too hard for you, I can tell. You
can also forget about dreaming of Hillary’s flesh. I certainly do not do
anything like that on the first date, despite champers and choccies. Or even
the second (unless you buy me a house first and even better, give me the
house and a large wedge of cash so that I can properly arrange our wedding).
No, I am sorry, I don’t think this is ever going to work for us. However,
how many bedrooms did you have in mind for the house you are buying me? Two
storeys? With a garden?
Personal Directions:
The power of positive thought and affirmations
by Christina Dodd
I have, over the past weeks, been talking about my
favourite subjects: vision and goals, but neither of these are possible
without having a positive thought plan. Such a plan becomes a road map –
your road map to success!
Positive and negative thinking are both contagious, and
their results are very obvious. If you choose the former you gain a great
and beneficial power. The latter places you on a downward spiral. In order
to turn the mind towards the positive, knowledge and training are necessary.
People do not change their attitude and thoughts overnight.
The power of thoughts is a mighty power that is always
shaping our lives. While this shaping is usually done subconsciously, it is
possible to make the process a conscious one.
Imagine that you are swimming with your friends in a
swimming pool. They swim fifteen laps, something you have never done before.
As you desire the respect of your friends, you want to show them that you
can make it too. You start swimming, and at the same time keep repeating in
your mind: “I can do it, I can do it...” You keep thinking and believing
that you are going to complete the fifteen laps. What are you actually
doing? You are using positive affirmations.
Positive affirmations are positive sentences repeated
many times in order to impress the subconscious mind and trigger it into
action. These sentences describe a situation that we desire to happen, and
are repeated many times during the day, with conviction, attention and
feelings.
People often repeat sentences about things they do not
want to happen, and consequently bring upon themselves undesirable
situations. Affirmations work both ways, to build and to destroy. They are a
kind of a neutral power. It is the way we use them that determines whether
they are going to bring good or evil results.
Repeating positive affirmations a few minutes, and then
thinking negatively, neutralizes the effects of the positive affirmations.
Refuse to think negatively; otherwise your positive affirmations will be
useless.
Affirmations are similar to creative visualization. The
repeated words build mental images and scenes in the mind. The words help to
focus on the aim, object or situation one wants to achieve or create.
Frequent repetitions make the subconscious mind accept them, and then it
influences the way one thinks, acts and behaves. Affirmations possess the
power to change the attitude and behaviour after they take root in the
subconscious mind. It is the conscious mind, the mind we think with, which
starts the process. This means that the thoughts that frequently pass
through your mind affect your destiny.
Affirmations work like commands that are given to a
computer. They influence us, other people, events and circumstances. It
might seem strange to you, but they do also influence the people we meet,
our circumstances and the events we encounter.
We use them all the time without being aware of the
process. We use them when we tell ourselves that we can’t do something,
that we are too lazy or that we are going to fail. The subconscious mind
tries to find the way to materialize the failure expected. It is the same
principle at work when we tell ourselves that we can do it, that we are
going to succeed. It is the same power working both ways. Why not choose the
better way?
How to repeat affirmations
It is better to repeat affirmations that are not too
long; a short sentence is quite enough. They can be repeated often when your
mind is not engaged in something in particular, such as when travelling in a
bus or a train, waiting in line, walking, etc. Do not affirm while driving
or crossing a street. You may also devote for their repetitions one, two or
three special sessions of about ten minutes each, every day.
There should be no tension during the affirmations; no
physical, emotional or mental tension. The stronger the concentration, the
more faith you have in what you are doing, the more feelings you put into
the act, the stronger and faster will be the results.
It is very important to choose only positive
affirmations. If for example you want to lose weight, do not say: “I am
not fat, I am losing weight.” By saying this sentence you see yourself in
your mind as fat. The word “losing” also evokes negative images. On the
other hand, a sentence such as, “My body has an athletic form and weighs
the right and healthy weight” evokes only positive images, and gives you
incentive to go on with the affirmation.
Affirmations should be affirmed in the present tense, not
the future tense. Saying: “I will be rich” means that you intend to be
rich one day, in the indefinite future. You are actually telling yourself
that some day you will be rich, never now. It is better to say and feel:
“I am rich now”, and the subconscious mind will work overtime to make
this happen now, in the present.
Remember, results may come fast or may take time to
manifest. This depends on how much time, energy, faith and feelings you
invest in your affirmations, on how big or small is what you want to
achieve, and on how strong is your desire. If you repeat an affirmation that
you find difficult to accept, choose another, otherwise it is useless. When
you love and believe the words of the affirmation it gains power.
By repeating affirmations you affirm what you want to be
true. While affirming forget your current circumstances and your doubts and
concentrate on a different reality.
Positive Affirmations
- I am healthy and happy.
- Wealth is pouring into my life.
- My body is healthy and functioning in a very good way.
- I have a lot of energy.
- I study and comprehend fast.
- I radiate love and happiness.
- I have the perfect job for me.
- I am living in the house of my dreams.
- I have good and loving relations with my wife/husband.
- I have a wonderful satisfying job.
- I have the means to travel abroad whenever I want to.
- I am successful in whatever I do.
- Everything is getting better every day.
In our life coaching and training, we employ several
methods of positive thought reinforcement and take many different approaches
to our clients needs. Affirmation is a simple tool to teach and is a useful
- and when mastered - instantaneous “hit” for confidence or morale
boosting. People sense our aura and are affected by our thoughts. Is it any
wonder that we want to be around positive persons and shun negative ones?
People are more disposed to help us if we are positive. They dislike and
avoid anyone broadcasting negativity.
Until next time, have a fabulous week
For more details about our life coaching services,
personal and professional skills development programs, please email me
directly at christina [email protected] or visit our website
www. asiatrainingassociates.com
Psychological Perspectives: Contemporary ideas about alcoholism
by Michael Catalanello,
Ph.D.
Alcohol seems to play an important role
in contemporary social life. Here in Pattaya, the presence and influence of
alcohol is clearly apparent. Pattaya establishments serving alcohol abound,
and seem to multiply like rabbits. Stories featuring alcohol, its use and
its abuse within our community, are a staple within the pages of the Pattaya
Mail.
The occasional consumption of alcohol can be a relaxing
and enjoyable social experience, and unproblematic for most people. For
some, however, alcohol use can result in serious problems, and aggravate
existing ones. Alcohol’s effects can extend far beyond the drinker, and
impact upon his family, friends, employer, and the community at large.
Although definitions of alcoholism vary, it is conservatively estimated
that at least 4% of the general population suffers from this problem.
Early views of alcoholism considered it a moral problem,
suggesting a lack of moderation and self control on the part of the
drinker. Although more progressive views have subsequently replaced this
attitude, there remains a stigma associated with alcoholism. This stigma
can add to the difficulties facing the alcoholic, as his condition can
become a source of shame or embarrassment. Partly as a result of this
stigma, people may be resistant to admitting to alcohol-related
difficulties and seeking treatment.
Because willpower alone often proves insufficient for
combating problem drinking, the notion that alcoholism is “like a
disease” emerged in the Alcoholics Anonymous literature of the early
1900s. Originally proposed as a metaphor, a more literal interpretation of
alcoholism as disease subsequently developed and, in turn, influenced
public attitudes about alcoholism.
According to the disease model, alcoholics suffer from
an unspecified disease process which results in obsessive thinking about
alcohol, and a compulsive use of alcoholic substances. Spawned by this
model, “twelve step” treatment programs teach drinkers that they are
“powerless” over their disease and need to turn to a “higher power”
in order to change. Although this represented progress from the previous
moralistic point of view, the disease model and associated doctrines
promoted by AA resulted in controversy, and the development of what some
believe to be an unnecessarily rigid and inflexible approach to treatment.
Some AA literature characterizes the alcoholic as an
“all or nothing person.” This view emphasizes the dichotomous thinking
and behavior often displayed by alcoholics. Cognitive behavioral theorist
Dr. Albert Ellis and his colleagues point out that “…much of the
controversy in the alcoholism literature also appears to suffer from an
all-or-nothing approach.” For example, the view is often expressed that
when it comes to being an alcoholic, either you are, or you aren’t.
There’s no in-between. Ellis advocates using more flexible concepts in
formulating treatment.
Consistent with Ellis’s suggestion, some experts
recommend recognizing the unique nature of each person’s drinking pattern
and problems, and tailoring the treatment approach to each client’s
specific strengths and needs. Many in the field advocate viewing alcoholism
along a continuum of severity. From this perspective, an alcoholic in the
earliest stages of problem drinking may require somewhat different
treatment strategies than a person whose drinking history is more
extensive.
Traditional approaches to alcoholism have promoted total
abstinence for all alcoholics. Some specialists have criticized this goal
as being too rigid and unrealistic for some to achieve. In practice, many
alcoholics go “on and off the wagon” throughout their lives. With this
in mind, a trial of “controlled drinking,” or drinking in moderation is
occasionally considered for some alcoholics whose problem drinking
is not severe and/or in its earliest stages. This is obviously a
controversial issue.
If, as traditionalists maintain, alcoholism is always
a progressive disease, attempts at controlled drinking by an alcoholic is
ineffective and dangerous. In such cases it would be considered unethical
for therapists to promote a controlled drinking strategy for their clients.
Following a review of research on the controlled
drinking issue, psychologist and substance abuse specialist Dr. Michler
Bishop recommends taking into consideration the client’s own preferences.
If a client’s episodic drinking pattern is firmly established, and
attempts at complete abstinence prove unsuccessful, Bishop recommends the
therapist build a long-term helping relationship with the client aimed at
“harm reduction.” Such an approach might support the client’s efforts
to reduce his consumption of alcohol, for example, and avoid dangerous
activities like drunk driving.
Dr. Catalanello is a licensed as a psychologist and a
member of the Liberal Arts Faculty at Asian University in Jomtien. Address
questions or comments to: [email protected]
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