Economy likely to grow 3-5% next year, says BoT

The Thai economy is likely to grow 3-5 percent next year given the continued economic growth in November and the fourth quarter of this year, according to the Bank of Thailand (BoT).

Mathee Supapongse, senior director of BoT’s Domestic Economy Department, said Thailand’s improved economic growth will make the economy expand 7.3-8 percent as expected for this year.

However, the Thai economy still faces such risk factors as US economic uncertainties, the public debt crisis in Europe, and local political woes in a run-up to the general election next year.

He said the continued rise in the policy interest rate did not obstruct the economic expansion since the rate is still not high, although it was raised by 25 basis points at the latest meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in December.

Still, he conceded the higher interest rate had fueled the cost of doing business. The issue would be raised for consideration at the next meeting of MPC.

He revealed foreign capital had flown into Thailand in an amount of US$443 million in November, which was seen increasing at a slower pace because foreign investors adjusted their bond and securities investment portfolios for profit-taking.

Mathee said the private investment expanded 15.5 percent year on year in November. The business confidence index edged up to 52.5 from 50 points in October. The index in the three months ahead also rose to 55.2 from 54.6 points, but entrepreneurs remain concerned about economic and political uncertainties, higher production costs, and product price hikes because they are considered risk factors to an investment.

He said the overall economy is stable as the inflation rate stayed at 1.1 percent, the current account balance remains in surplus, and the international reserve is still high. (MCOT online news)
 

SET index expected to reach 1,200 points in first half of 2011

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) composite index is likely to reach 1,200 points in the first half of next year, boosted by the country’s continued economic recovery, according to a leading securities analyst.

Tawatchai Asawapornchai, vice president of Globlex Securities’ Securities Analysis Division, said the price/earning ratio of the Thai market would stay at 15.15 times if the index surged to that level.

He projected the daily trading value would be as high as Bt29.45 billion as it remains driven by continued economic growth this year, bolstered by the government’s ability to collect revenue as targeted and the low public debt level.

Tawatchai said the operating performance of listed companies on the SET continued growing on par with those of listed firms on other bourses in the region.

It is projected the performances of the listed companies in 2011 would grow 20 percent against the 11.5 percent expansion in 2010.

The continued strengthening of the baht is another positive factor that could encourage foreign investors to invest in the Thai stock exchange without interruption.

However, he warned the SET index might drop to 980 points if the domestic political situation remains uncertain and economic difficulties in many countries, particularly in Europe, continue unabated.

“The direction of the Thai stock market remains positive, but the index may be volatile, depending upon the political situation. It is expected the securities trading next year will be more active than that of this year,” he said. (MCOT online news)

Economy likely to grow 3-5% next year, says BoT

SET index expected to reach 1,200 points in first half of 2011