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Money matters: Scott Campbell’s views on Thailand cont.
(written at the start of May 2004)
Graham Macdonald
MBMG International Ltd.
Continuing our mini-series on the views imparted by
Scott Campbell, the portfolio manager whose ‘Growth Fund’ has been
judged by S&P to be the best in its sector for the last 6 years,
during his first ever visit to Bangkok, last month we turn our attention,
once again, to property.
I have been recommending an underweight position to
global commercial property for some time now and recent research has led
to a further reduce recommendation and sale within our portfolios. There
are two major reasons for this strategy.
The first is the recent and imminent further rise in
global interest rates. Like bonds and equities, rising interest rates off
45-year lows is not bullish for the asset class. Commercial property is
essentially valued on a yield basis and as Government bonds rise, so too
do the expected yield on property investments. By way of example, an
office building with rental income of US$1,000,000 is currently priced at
8% capitalisation to give a valuation of US$12,500,000. If the expected
rate of return rises with bond yields to say 10%, then the capitalisation
of the building falls to US$10,000,000 or a fall of 20%. Of course,
leveraged commercial property investment vehicles will fall even further
with a 50% gearing example in the example above causing a fall of 32%. A
blow out in interest rates to 12% means a fall to US$8,333,000 or 33%
un-geared. Valuations by directors and independents of commercial property
funds are using historically low capitalisation rates and this is the time
to start reducing rather than increasing exposure. The income yield will
be swamped by the fall in capital value.
The second reason is the behaviour of listed property
funds in recent times. My experience of listed commercial property trusts
is that they tend to lead property unit trusts or other collective
vehicles with physical property assets at director valuations by 6 months.
The market tends to discount the expected moves in interest rates in
advance in much the same way as they do earnings of industrial and
financial companies. The Real Estate Investment Trust Index (REITs) in New
York price 200 day moving average has been broken in April.
The decisive breakout in April on interest rate
concerns is a lead indicator for physical commercial property assets and
funds. This index is obviously US focused but the same concerns and price
action is happening in the entire developed world. Rising interest rates
in the Western world are not indicative of a time to be overexposed to
commercial property there regardless of location, location, location?
Residential Property - Bubble?
Led by articles in the FT last weekend and various features in the
Economist over the past 18 months, is the housing bubble. Since 1956 UK
house prices have risen, in real terms, at a trend rate of 2.1%pa. This
has made housing an excellent investment but prices have gone through huge
cycles. At their peak in 1973, prices were 43% above trend and in the 1988
peak they were 36% above trend. At the end of last year they were 37%
above it. Tony Dye, of past fame for losing his job at Phillips and Drew
for calling the Tech bubble in 1999, says UK house prices could fall by
30% over the next five years to bring prices back to trend. The usual
argument of “affordability” dynamics have changed does not wash
according to a study by Andrew Farlow of Oxford University. In Sydney the
problem is even worse and Reuters noted in the weekend that properties
have doubled in the past six years and now only offer yields of 2.5% and
it now takes in excess of 30% of family income to service the debt. All
this at 45 year low interest rates and expectations are that rates will
only increase over the next 30 year life of the mortgage. The Western
world housing market is definitely in a bubble, you only need to ask
Japanese, Hong Kong, and most Emerging Market property investors about
their yields, debt servicing and large falls in capital value over the
past few years.
The above data and research was compiled from sources believed to be
reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its officers can
accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above article nor
bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any actions
taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For more
information please contact Graham Macdonald on graham@mbmg-international
.com
Snap Shots: How give black and white some sparkle
by Harry Flashman
The first commercially available film was black and
white, and the older readers will remember those days. It is in fact only
relatively recently that colour became the norm for amateur photography.
 After
you got your snaps back in bright colour, nobody wanted to shoot in black
and white (B&W) anymore, other than a hard core band of photographers
who could appreciate the stark contrasts that B&W could give, without
the distractions produced by colour. Anyone who has seen Ansel Adam’s
prints will attest to that.
Having had a query sent to me recently about shooting
in B&W, I dug deep in the archives. Pauline, this is for you! And
anyone else who would like to experiment.
However, like all things that seem easy, there can be
traps for the unwary. The concept hinges on a condition called
‘reflectance’, which determines the degree of ‘grey’ depicted in a
black and white print. Imagine a red boat against a blue background. If
both have the same degree of reflectance, then the B&W film will
produce two very similar shades of grey. In colour, you have a vivid
contrast, but in B&W you have a grey boat against a grey background.
No contrast at all.
The answer to this lies upon being able to alter the
relative reflectances of the different colours in the scene. If you could
make the red stand out more, as far as the film in the camera was
concerned, then you would get a different shade of grey between the boat
and the background. Fortunately, this is not all that difficult.
The trick requires filters. Not the crossed star, soft
focus or centre spot type filters, but coloured filters, with the usual
ones being red, yellow and green. What these coloured filters do is to let
the light reflected from its own colour to pass freely through the filter,
but other colours are ‘held back’ to various degrees. In this way, for
example, using the red filter, the light from the red boat passes through
more easily, while the blue background is held back. The final effect is a
light grey boat against a dark grey background.
Even more simply, the more light that gets through, the
lighter the shade of grey. Use of a green filter when taking a landscape
also produces a stronger variation of the greys resulting from the
different green shades. To increase the effect even further, add a
polarizer to the coloured filter and you will really get some contrasting
shades in the final B&W print.
The next step is difficult to predict because many
factors that may alter the reflectance, but prior experimentation will
take away some of the guesswork. As in all things, practice makes perfect.
Now while so far it sounds as if all you have to do is
to screw on a couple of coloured filters and you become the 21st
century’s answer to Ansel Adams, there is another factor to consider.
All these coloured filters require an increase in exposure times to get
enough light on to the film emulsion. A deep red could require 2 times the
usual exposure (called 2 ‘stops’), denoted by a 4X. At this stage just
believe me that you halve the “X” factor to get the number of stops!
The upshot of all this is that you can end up with a
shutter speed of around 1/8th of a second or even slower, particularly if
you are shooting with a tiny aperture of say f22 to get good depth of
field. This is far too slow to hand hold the camera. The fix? It’s
called a tripod. Ansel Adams used one, and so should you if you want those
pin sharp black and white images worthy of archiving.
So that’s the story of B&W. Use ‘contrast’ coloured filters,
use a tripod and get great B&W prints. Remember that you can get
B&W films now that can be processed in C41 colour chemistry, so you
can get your pictures done at your favourite photo processing outlet.
Modern Medicine: Syndrome X. A new “X”treme sport?
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
No, not an “X”treme sport, but rather
far from it. Unfortunately Syndrome X, which is otherwise known as the
Metabolic Syndrome, is a classic example of what we medico’s call
‘co-morbidity’. This is the situation where one disease process or
ailment affects, or “X”aggerates, another disease process you may have.
In these situations, the combined effects can be life threatening. It is
also a syndrome possessed by around 40 percent of adults over 40.
Now there can be many occasions when you have more than
one ailment at one time. You can have a sore throat and a broken leg all at
the same time, and these conditions have no real bearing on each other. The
broken leg will get better and the sore throat ditto.
However, the combination of diabetes and obesity can be
disaster waiting. The combination of diabetes, smoking, obesity,
hypertension and high triglycerides (blood fats) is cardiac dynamite. Your
conclusive heart attack is a matter of ‘when’ not ‘if’. The risk
factors stemming from all those conditions become not a case of simple
addition, but are multiplied.
The problem from your point of view is that most of these
factors come on very slowly, and become part of your daily living. You’ve
smoked for years and never had a smoker’s cough, so why stop now? Every
time you get some trousers made the waistband has to be that little larger.
Your belt has been let out two more holes over the past two years. Your
doctor said you had a “Little bit of blood pressure” three years ago,
but you haven’t been back to check, as you feel quite OK in yourself. Your
‘triglycerides’? “My what?” Your blood sugar? “It was OK last time
it was checked five years ago!”
The big problem is that the “Little bit of blood
pressure”, even say 150/100, can produce a very dangerous situation when
the person with that BP has elevated blood sugar as well. Or smokes. It is
the multiplication effect again. Whereas you can (almost) ignore mild
elevations like 150/100, if you have nothing else wrong, ignoring it when
there are other conditions co-existing brings up that co-morbidity problem
again. And the likelihood of a cardiac calamity.
Likewise, a “little bit of extra weight” that we all
excuse ourselves for carrying, may (just ‘may’) be fine for someone with
no other medical conditions, but represents an enormous risk factor for
someone with the Metabolic Syndrome.
For those who like figures with their information, here
are some chilling ones. Between 87-100 percent of people with fatal coronary
heart disease, or a non-fatal heart attack had at least one of the following
risk factors - smoking, diabetes, increased blood fats and high blood
pressure. Syndrome X, or the Metabolic Syndrome, is characterized by having
Diabetes, increased blood pressure, and raised blood fats. Can you now see
the importance of doing something about weight, blood fats and blood
pressure? I for one would not like to be sitting with a condition that gives
me between 87-100 percent chance of a cardiac problem.
So what is this week’s message? Quite simply, if you
have diabetes, do something about the other risk factors. Stop smoking to
start with and then get your BP and blood fats checked. If you don’t even
know what your blood sugar level is, then get a check-up and find about all
of it!
In the meantime, take 100 mgm of aspirin each morning. It
is cardio-protective. I do!
 Heart to Heart with Hillary
Dear Hillary,
We have been here for six months and I suppose we are considered very well off.
I have a problem though, and I don’t know if it is related to the fact that we
have money. I have an increasing attraction for our new young maid. She is very
beautiful and charming and appears to be interested in me too. We have not
spoken about this, but I will hold her hand when we are in the street and she
does not pull away. I know my husband would not approve of this so I have not
said anything to him either. Should I tell him? Should I tell her? I am unsure
of what to do.
Angela
Dear Angela,
You are certainly new here, aren’t you, Petal. Holding hands with another
woman is perfectly normal and acceptable behaviour here in Thailand. It does not
indicate a romantic relationship beyond a simple friendship, and certainly not
the one you are implying. What you should do is sit down and think about why you
are looking to have any sort of an ‘affair’. Has the relationship with your
husband lost its sparkle? Start holding his hand, instead of the maid’s.
Dear Hillary,
Discovered Rambling Sid Rumpo the other day in an anatomy classroom. He was, as
usual, nadgering his artefacts but took time off to write a quick verse in the
cunning old Celtic tradition.
“Whilst thinking of Hillary
I burst a capillary,
Is she a butterfly,
Like a fritillary?”
Mistersingha
Dear Mistersingha,
You are the one starting to ramble, my reneging Petal. And even if like Rambling
Sid, your nurglers are irritated and you have numutization of your third sensory
strunod (thank you Neddy Seagoon, 1952) you also have no concept of rhythm and
rhyme. Allow me to pen a couple of lines myself.
“Mistersingha, you’re a pain,
You’re reneging again,
You promised some goodies,
Some chocolate foodies
And Miss Hillary’s bottled champagne.”
When I receive the promised gifts I will take you off my black list (the
immigration police are not the only ones with such lists!)
Dear Hillary,
My aunt came to Thailand last month for a visit. I was excited, as I had not
seen her or my uncle for some years. Imagine how I felt when my aunt arrived
without my uncle, but she had a man from Bangkok in tow. She said my uncle did
not feel like travelling at his age (in his eighties but my aunt is much
younger) but she didn’t want to disappoint me by not coming. She didn’t say
anything about the ‘boy’ she was with, but I know they stayed in the same
hotel room, but I didn’t ask about the sleeping arrangements. (I only have a
very small studio so they couldn’t stay with me.) She did not explain
anything, but didn’t hide anything either. Honestly, Hillary, should I tell my
uncle or should I tell my aunt she is not welcome here again? I am so confused.
Please help.
Confused of Chonburi.
Dear Confused,
What exactly are you confused about, Petal? That your aunt should have a
rent-a-boy in tow? That your uncle didn’t come? Do you really know the whole
story? After all, as you say, you didn’t ask and I’m sure you also didn’t
ask what was the relationship between your aunt and your uncle. For all you
know, they could be the leaders of the local swingers group, or into ‘open
marriage’. The problem is just the fact that you did not find out what really
was the situation. My advice would be to live and let live. Your aunt would not
have been so open if she was hiding anything. From your point of view I would
not say anything unless your uncle asks. After that, the truth is always best,
but I think the arrangement was probably one that your aunt and uncle were OK
with, and so should you.
Dear Hillary,
I used to be very friendly with a girl in a local cafe and often used to just
pop in for a coffee and to say hello, as her English was not very good. About
three months ago she disappeared and the new waitress could not tell me where
she had gone. I bumped into her in a shopping centre the other day and her
English was much better, so I decided to ask her out for dinner. She told me she
couldn’t go as she was working in a bar, but I could see her there. I was just
so disappointed. How could a sweet young girl from a restaurant turn into yet
another bar girl? I still like her a lot. Should I try to get her to leave?
Marty.
Dear Marty,
In a word, No! There’s an old saying - You can take a girl out of a bar but
you can’t take the bar out of the girl! If that’s what your sweet young
thing wants to do, you have to accept it. She has her reasons for working there,
and they are probably financial. You do not need to start a relationship based
on financial need and your presumed ability to supply the cash to cover that
need. Beware, young Marty. Beware!
PC Blues - News and Views:
Good news and Bad news
As the joke has it, which do you want first?
Micro$oft will enforce
‘Sender IDs’
This is good news, and may be a major step in the
war against spam. Microsoft has said it will begin enforcing this
policy on October 1st. Users of Hotmail, MSN and Microsoft.com will be
affected (will benefit?).
This policy depends on something called Sender
Policy Framework (SPF). Originators of emails, such as e-mail
providers and Internet service providers (ISPs) [not the common user
such as you or I], will need to publish SPF records for their internet
domains. Receivers of emails can check the source of the emails
against the SPF, and accept or reject the email accordingly. If the
email source does not match the SPF record, it can be rejected out of
hand. If there is no SPF, the matter becomes more tricky. Microsoft
has said it will inspect such emails more closely.
Sender ID could provide a way to close loopholes in
the current system for sending and receiving e-mail that allow senders
to masquerade, or “spoof,” their message’s origin. This would
eliminate the spate of ‘returned’ emails such as those we received
last time I reported.
Naturally, if Sender IDs are adopted world-wide,
recipient email servers can drop all messages without a Sender IDs as
well as those where the Sender IDs don’t match. Spam will be
severely constrained under these circumstances.
In my view, this is a good policy, and we should be
grateful for the Evil Empire for throwing its weight behind it.
What must you do? Badger your ISP or email service
provider to adopt SPF, to publish SPF records, and to filter incoming
mail accordingly. My source says that ‘tens of thousands of SPF
records have already been published’, but there must be billions to
go: just how many domain names are there in the world? And how many
with email addresses? I shall award a small prize to the closest
answer by the end of next week [probably a tin of spam].
Bad news: XP2 service pack
I reported recently that the forthcoming service
pack (upgrade) to XP2 was now delayed until August. Further news has
come my way to the effect that it doesn’t work very well.
Micro$oft releases ‘release candidates’ of its
software for people to try out, and report errors or difficulties. The
service pack release candidate 2 has been tried out by the CRN Test
Center. On three out of five machines, the systems crashed, and the
Test Centre could not recover Windows.
They had to go back to Micro$oft and ask what to
do. The company told them how to get out of the problem, and uninstall
the service pack, but didn’t comment on the reason(s) for the crash.
By the way, the instructions fall into the category of “don’t try
this at home, folks”.
Having undone the installation, they found that all
the device drivers had been uninstalled. The system was able to
recover all but one: the Matrox graphics card. The folder for this had
vanished, and had to be recovered from the Matrox web site.
They then found that the previous service pack
(SP1) had also been removed from the system.
I have seen commentary on the internet: some
people, including companies, have said they successfully upgraded
their systems using this release candidate. Now private individuals
may care to try such things out: that is what release candidates are
for - Micro$oft welcomes their feedback. For companies to risk their
survival on such things is ignorance bordering on insanity.
As a general warning, many third party software
utilities may no longer work under SP2. There again, some of these
utilities will no longer be required: that is the purpose of the
service release.
Personal Directions:
Inspiring you - now you’re the coach!
by Christina Dodd
Many people ask me: “Just what is
coaching all about? … and how can I use it in my daily life?” I take
time to explain that coaching professionally takes training, mentoring and
experience, but we can all be coaches within our own lives or with people we
work with. Now it is your chance to take some of these coaching skills and
improve results for yourself, your family, or your company.
Seek opportunities: coaching isn’t appropriate in every
situation, but you would be amazed how many times it can be used - so keep
your mind and your eyes open for opportunities to use your coaching skills
in daily life - the next time you have a problem you can’t see a solution
for, or someone knocks on your door and says “How do I do this?”, or you
want to delegate a piece of work.
An effective way is to STOP: to gain perspective,
sometimes what we need is to:
Step back - get away from the heat of the situation and
give those involved room to view the situation from new angles
Think - remove the emotion and think through what is
happening, what the options are, what needs to happen, what resources are
available
Organise your thoughts - consolidate your thoughts into
an action plan, with measurable steps and review points, if appropriate
Proceed - implement the action plan, review and learn
This simple technique can diffuse customer or employee
disputes (or even those with your spouse!) and ensure any actions you take
are more calm, calculated and less emotional. This increases the chances
they will be the right actions!
Believe in others: not everyone necessarily has the
skills, aptitude or drive to be chief executive, or employee of the month,
or sales person of the year, but most people have the ability to perform at
above the level they might believe, or that we might believe ourselves, on
first glance. How could you raise your own game? What more could your team
achieve with the right support, encouragement, training and resources?
For this to really work, we all have to work hard to turn
off that little nagging gremlin that sits on our shoulder, telling us
we’re no good, it will all go wrong, or we’re all doomed! Too often we
listen to that voice about ourselves, but we also believe it readily about
others. Turning down the volume on that voice and finding belief in
ourselves and others helps us all to play a bigger game.
Shut up and listen: a good coach never hears those words
(or never admits to it!). When was the last time you honestly properly
listened to others around you or even to yourself? Over the next two weeks
play with being much more attentive as a listener. Focus on what the other
person is saying, what they are communicating, rather than worrying about
what you are going to say next. Reflect back what they have said - the
emotion, not just the words - to show you have taken in what they have said
to you. (NB This is VERY powerful when talking to sales prospects or
customers!).
Early in a coach’s training, they will often learn that
the word ‘listen’ is an anagram of the word ‘silent’. Not meaningful
in itself, but a useful reminder that it is easier to listen when we have
shut up ourselves! Let your staff talk you through their issues, and their
ideas for solutions, before you jump in and tell them what to do. You may be
surprised by what they come up with - and perhaps next time they won’t
have to trouble you!
Check in with others: whether you are pushing yourself to
higher performance, or encouraging those around you, providing
accountability is a useful coaching skill. This could be as simple as
putting an appointment in a diary to review your progress and reward
success, or it could be a performance plan with a member of staff as part of
an HR structure.
For accountability to be truly effective, you will need
to have made specific, measurable commitments against which progress can be
assessed. “I’m going to try and use coaching skills next week” is a
bit woolly, but “I will find five opportunities to use my new-found
coaching skills with direct reports in the next week” allows easier
measurement of progress. And if you are providing accountability to others,
be sure to remember the last three points - perspective, belief in potential
and listening. It would be a shame to show good coaching by having
accountability and then to blow it by talking over your staff and harassing
them for underperformance.
What questions can you ask? When these coaching
opportunities arise, be aware of your language as you ask questions and
listen to the responses. Try starting the majority of your questions with
the word “what”, and see the type of response you get. And whenever you
ask people to list factors, solutions, opportunities, resources or ideas,
don’t let them finish until you’ve asked “What else?” at least
twice!
As a “bonus” coaching skill, combine the “what”
question with listening, and allow silence after your questions. Just
because someone has stopped talking doesn’t mean they have stopped
thinking, so don’t rush to interrupt those thoughts with another question.
(Hint, more than 30 minutes silence can unnerve most people and may be too
long!). It is interesting how many ideas emerge, and of what great quality
those ideas can be, if you allow some silence for someone to formulate them.
Time for you to do something! In your diary, or in the
margin to the left of this section, jot down the ways that you can start
using coaching skills in your daily life in the next seven days. What can
you do to create opportunities? What situations can you see where
perspective would be beneficial? What might others achieve if you have faith
in them (or yourself)? What might you hear if you truly listen to others?
What impact might it have on those you listen to?
And, of course,
What else?!
Why not book a coaching session to see where you can
start? At Asia Training Associates / Lifecoach-asia we have experienced,
trained and certified coaches who can pilot you through stormy and uncertain
times. Our coaches will listen to you, act as a sounding-board and give you
personal, solid, proven and innovative feedback and suggestions as to how
you can move your life, your business, our society and even our world
forward.
For more details about our life coaching services,
personal and professional skills development programs, please email me
directly at [email protected] or visit our website www.asiatrainingassociates.com
Until next time, have a fabulous week and take one step
closer to reaching your goals!
Psychological Perspectives:
Gender inequality and HIV transmission
by Michael Catalanello,
Ph.D.
Unprotected sexual intercourse is the
most common means of transmission of HIV. Condoms used properly can be an
effective HIV prevention method. Reproductive health and HIV prevention
programs for young people typically address facts like theses.
Sexual abstinence and delaying sexual activity until
marriage is sometimes promoted as an AIDS prevention strategy for young
people. Although it is a well known fact that large numbers of young people
do become sexually active, abstinence and delaying sexual activity by some
young people is not unheard of. We might assume that young people who
choose to abstain from sex and those who use condoms are out of danger of
sexually contracting HIV.
We would be wrong.
Another strategy suggested for avoiding sexual
transmission of HIV is monogamy. If sexual partners who are both HIV
negative are mutually faithful, it is unnecessary for them to use a condom
during sex. We would assume that married people and those confidently in
committed relationships are out of danger of sexually contracting HIV.
Again, we would be wrong.
We normally assume that young people who become sexually
active are doing so by choice, and those engaging in unprotected sex are
doing so freely and with full knowledge of the risks they are taking.
Wrong again.
The reason we would be wrong to come to these
conclusions has to do with an understanding of the phenomenon known as
sexual coercion.
Contemporary discussions of the issue use the phrase,
“sexual coercion” or “nonconsensual sex” instead of the more
traditional term, “rape.” For many, the term “rape” conjures up
images of a certain type of sexual coercion, perhaps a violent physical and
sexual attack by a male stranger, upon a weaker, usually female individual.
Sexual coercion, however, includes a broader range of behaviors we might
not immediately consider under the category of rape.
A recent publication by YouthNet identifies the
following experiences as examples of sexual coercion: “…attempted
rape, forced penetrative sex (vaginal, oral, or anal), trafficking, and
forced prostitution. It also includes sex obtained as a result of physical
force, intimidation, pressure, blackmail, deception, forced alcohol and
drug use, and threats of abandonment or withholding economic support.
Transactional sex through money, gifts, or other economic incentives
(especially in the context of extreme poverty) often has a coercive aspect
as well.
Thought of in this way, sexual coercion would seem to be
a more commonly occurring phenomenon, one that puts many young people at
risk, not only of psychological trauma, but also of HIV infection.
Although men and boys are not exempt from sexual
coercion, women are particularly at risk, due in part to what is known as
gender inequality.
Gender inequality refers to the fact that we have
different expectations about the behavior of men and women. Some
differential expectations might be considered as interesting and fairly
innocuous elements of our culture. For example, many societies retain the
expectation that a man should offer a woman his seat on a crowded bus.
Other instances of gender inequality may be more pernicious.
Controlling behavior, for example, is commonly
considered a masculine trait, and undesirable in a woman. How does this
attitude affect a woman’s ability to exercise control over her
reproductive health? Do females exercise the same degree of control over
their sexual activities as do males?
Does a married woman who suspects unfaithfulness on the
part of her husband have the awareness and confidence to insist that he use
a condom with her? Can she refuse sex at will? What if she has children and
is economically dependent upon the man?
Experts recommend that reproductive health and HIV
prevention programs include educational elements to address the influence
of gender inequality, among other important issues related to sexual
coercion. Mental health professionals who work with victims of sexual
coercion need to develop sensitivity to issues of nonconsensual sex and
gender inequality.
Dr. Catalanello is licensed as a psychologist in his
home State of Louisiana, USA. He is a member of the Faculty of Liberal Arts
at Asian University in Jomtien. Address questions or comments to [email protected]
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