- HEADLINES [click on headline to view story]:
Heart to Heart with Hillary
Learn to Live to Learn
Let’s go to the movies
Graham Macdonald MBMG International Ltd.
The dangers of trying to time the market
As everyone knows, what goes up must come down. This is
equally applicable to a certain item of clothing as it is to fund prices and
share performances. The biggest and, supposed, best make as many poor calls as
the rest of us mere mortals. For example, Goldman Sachs (GS) had Marks & Spencer
(M&S) as a ‘Buy’ recommendation from when it was priced at 745p. They finally
realized that this was not the brightest option when they recently removed the
aforementioned tag when it was at 235p. So, if someone had taken the advice when
it was given in May last year they would have lost over 68% of the money
invested. However, GS were not the only ones with egg on their faces. Investec
still had M&S as a ‘Buy’ when it was at 230p.
This is from the same people that recommended Sub-prime to us all and look where
that got us. The research done on this was a tad poor to say the least and many
of the investment companies’ managers looked at the potential size of their
bonuses as opposed to their clients’ wallets.
The question is, who are these researchers and how do they come up with their
recommendations? Some recent wag came out with the glorious statement that it
just “keeps the mentally disadvantaged off the streets.” It reminds me of JK
Galbraith who said that “economics is extremely useful as a form of employment
Anyway, I digress. Back to market timing. Another classic is what happened to
the Legg Mason Value Trust. Over the last ten years this has consistently
outperformed the S&P500. However, in the space of six months, it is now lower
than its benchmark and people are now left with the same amount as when they
originally invested in 1998. This just goes to show that nothing keeps on going
up for ever and that those who invested recently will be ruing the day they did.
It also shows that fund managers that rely on growth in assets under management
for a source of income as opposed to value delivered (i.e. the vast majority of
them) are extremely vulnerable to their own success.
Another good example of this is the old Fidelity Magellan Fund which at it’s
height a few years ago had over USD100 billion in it.
Dan Gross of Slate Magazine wrote about the problems that a very large fund has
to face: “When you have to buy as much as they do, it’s difficult to open and
close positions quietly. Hedge funds and other quick-fire traders are constantly
trying to figure out which stocks the big dogs are buying and selling and how
they can profit by jumping in and out ahead of them. And unless you want to buy
hundreds upon hundreds of positions - in which case you’re essentially mimicking
the broader market - a huge mutual-fund manager has to confine himself to huge
stocks. Magellan has 207 positions, and its top 10 holdings are the same giant
stocks that everybody owns.”
Regular readers of this column will know that, with honourable exceptions like
Man Investments, we prefer active funds that are hungry for success. This is
because, as can be seen from above, excessive size is a real problem when trying
to achieve continued investment success. It behooves investors to select a
manager who has no loyalty to anyone but the investor who has elected to put
money into that fund. It will sort out the men from the boys and those that
manage to survive this bear market will emerge leaner, meaner and a lot
Now that the poor times have fallen on us again, it is an opportune moment to
remind us of what the Yale University Endowment CIO David Swensen said three
years ago: “Unfortunately, the track record of individual investors with
plain-vanilla mutual funds fails to inspire confidence… [they] overwhelmingly
fail to beat the market. In a well-structured study published in 2000, an
investment manager, Robert Arnott, showed that over a two-decade period,
excessive management fees ... reduce the chance that a mutual fund investor will
beat the market to less than one in seven.”
Swenson went on, “Most mutual funds do not produce even minimally acceptable
results because of the conflict between the mutual fund company’s profit motive
and the mutual fund manager’s fiduciary responsibility. Mutual fund companies
profit by gathering assets, charging high fees and churning portfolios. Mutual
fund managers produce superior investment returns by limiting assets, assessing
low fees and trading infrequently. In case after case, profits trump returns.
The mutual fund manager abrogates fiduciary responsibility for personal gain.”
Not all fund managers are greedy incompetents but a lot of the managers are
managed by their companies and told that profits for the company are more
important than those of the investor. As stated above, I cannot emphasise
strongly enough that if you do own funds then you will do a damn sight better by
going with a high quality fund manager than just picking a large well-known one.
Many fund managers are also limited in what they can do by the make up of the
fund itself. If the fund insists that it can only invest in equities then that
is it. There is no facility to allow the manager to jump into alternative funds,
commodities, property etc. There is the crux of the matter, as the real
challenge now is actual asset allocation - especially having the ability to move
money away from any particular area where it may be vulnerable.
Just to show how bad the markets have had it this year you only have to look at
the chart on this page. Sector after sector shows massive losses with the only
ones not suffering are those industries linked to commodities. This is just the
FTSE All Share but it is equally applicable to any major market in the world
The world is a different place now than it was recently. What to do?
1. Do not tie money up in something that you cannot get out of relatively
quickly - especially in the equity market.
2. Cash is king.
3. Bonds are not necessarily a good alternative either - not even government
ones. For example, the UK government is going to find it difficult to give any
tax cuts in this recession and inflation looks as though it is rearing its ugly
head at the moment. What with the British Pound looking increasingly vulnerable,
it is not the time to be buying these instruments
4. If you have not already done so then it is a good time to consider getting
into good quality absolute return funds with a multi-asset class approach.
5. If Option 4 is still too aggressive for you then there is always that option
called … Gold.
What all of this basically amounts to is that nobody, not even Warren Buffet,
can time individual markets or stocks. Even if you could then it would not
really help that as much as 90% of returns comes from asset selection, i.e.,
market timing at asset selection level just does not work and can be very
expensive. Asset allocation, however, is a form of market timing and results in
almost all of the growth your portfolio will make.
The above data and research was compiled from sources
believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its
officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above
article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any
actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For
more information please contact Graham Macdonald on
Snap Shots: by Harry Flashman
When all else fails - read the instruction manual
all else fails - read the instruction manual is always some good advice,
and the answer to many photographic problems can be found between its
pages. I have written before about just how much information there is
available, if you want to look.
Unfortunately, many instruction manuals are close to being useless as
the details are too difficult to understand (or ‘navigate’) these days.
Is this you? Be honest now. I have this problem too. The family happy
snapper is a Canon Ixus 40 and after one or both of the children play
with it, the LED screen ends up with all kinds of confusing icons and
histograms. How to return it to the simple turn on and take pictures
mode is beyond me, and beyond the capabilities of the instruction manual
to impart. Fortunately, the store where we bought it has a bright young
man who races through menus and gives us back a camera we adults can
use. And he does it free of charge. What a bargain.
Now a few weeks ago I published a letter from Darcy in Australia who had
written to me with his problems with a new Nikon D 40 X he had
purchased. His first digital camera, and welcome to the wonderful world
of drop-down menus, while just wanting to snap drop-dead models.
Darcy wrote “Bought the D 40 X. Lovely bit of equipment suitable for my
needs. I will ask a little advice now and then as I work my way through
all its tricks if you don’t mind. I have already picked up a neat
infrared remote shutter control and have tested it out to 30 meters. I
also picked up a twin battery pack that should give me plenty of backup
power. I will look for an AFS VR 200 mm zoom in a couple of months. A
question though, I know most of the time it is power economical to leave
the LCD off but occasionally it is needed for viewing. I have trawled
through the book and menus for both turning it on and also extending the
viewing time of the menus but I’m damned if I can find anything about
either items. Any suggestions?”
This prompted Don Griffith to write to me with some advice for young
Darcy. And as it was extremely sage advice, I have reprinted the letter
“Darcy’s problem with the Nikon D40X has prompted me to pass on a tip. I
have a D40 and probably the instruction manual for it is exactly the
same as his. Very badly laid out and confusing - vague language and far
too many cross references for someone making the transition up to a DSLR
to make total sense of.
“To this end it is very worthwhile investing in a third party book on
the camera if one wants to get the best out of it.
“I got one from my local ‘Amazon’ - the beauty of using Amazon being I
was able to read parts of it before I bought it to make sure I was not
buying yet another confusing instruction book. I bought the cheapest
available out of a surprisingly large collection that was on offer - and
it has been a complete revelation and consider it has totally paid for
itself in the first three or four chapters.
“For example, I have had the camera for 12 months and in the first
chapter or so I learnt basic things that I was previously unaware of -
like how to use the exposure compensation/aperture button.
“No doubt there are owners of other makes of DSLR cameras with much the
same problem - if so it is also worth them looking for a book for their
camera as well.”
Thank you Don, for that advice, and by the way, Don had added the
disclaimer “PS I don’t work for Amazon or have shares in the company
With today’s increasingly more technical (electronic) cameras, you do
need a good manual, and if the factory one is too complex, then I
suggest you do as Don Griffith has done. Look for the easier
by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant
The Okinawa Express
It always amazes me just how much of our living is dedicated
to try and avoid dying. Every second magazine has some advert for something
that will extend our lives, be that taking megavitamins or doing colonic
I have dealt with the megavitamin myth recently, so I won’t cover that again
today, but colonic washouts have been spared my pen dipped in hemlock -
until now. Just how, pray tell me, does sticking 300 mm of garden hose up
your fundamental orifice assist you to become more healthy? Let me assure
you that the colon was designed to cope with human poo. It was not designed
to cope with garden hose loaded with mystical ingredients that will make you
live longer. Put the garden hose away. It will not work.
However, we still all want to be immortal, so if your ambition is to live to
be 100, the Okinawa Express is now leaving from platform number three.
According to an article I have read, the Japanese Health Ministry claims
that Okinawans have an average life expectancy of 81.2 years - 86 for women
and 75 for men (note for the marriageable - choose an Okinawan woman 11
years older than you are and go for a double cremation).
The other amazing fact was that Okinawan centenarians come in at about 34
per 100,000 of the population, almost three and a half times more than the
figures from America.
So what are the Okinawans doing right? Is it the center of colonic washouts?
Or what is it that we are doing wrong? When you look at this conundrum, it
is interesting to note that if you take the Okinawans out of Japan and
relocate them in another culture, they end up with the same statistics as
the culture in which they are now living. The same has been shown in
comparative statistical examinations of all races, for all diseases. East
Africans do not get tooth decay, but when working for British Rail (“Mind
the gap!”) and living in the UK, end up with a set of typical British
rotting teeth - or a fine set of NHS dentures (mind the gap, again!).
So the true story is probably not lucky genes, but revolves around diet and
lifestyle. Okinawans are doing better because their lifestyle suits them
better, and their diet isn’t poisoning them or blocking their arteries.
The lifestyle on Okinawa is apparently very slow and the stress experienced
by the local populace is not high. Now if this were the be all and end all,
my car washer will live to be 134 years old, but Thais, despite a nice slow
pace don’t do all that well in the longevity stakes either. So there’s more.
The researchers cite diet, and the Okinawans are apparently strong on
fruits, vegetables, fish and ‘moderation’. (Once again, the middle way looks
like being the best, as a simple Buddhist observation.) Looking at one of
their recipes, it ends up being a tofu mish-mash with 59 calories per
serving. It is certainly not the high cholesterol stew that we as farangs
tend to eat.
The other factors associated with longevity - or the lack of it - cigarettes
and booze, were not mentioned in the article - because I think it would be
there that you would find another clue. Despite Uncle Ernie who lived to be
103 and smoked 60 cigarettes a day and drank a bottle of bourbon before
lunch and died when shot by a jealous husband, we do know that smoking
doesn’t help you live longer (when I typed that last phrase, I had
inadvertently put “love” longer - but that’s true too). Like wise, we know
that with alcohol, the middle way is also best.
So, rather than take the train to Okinawa, look at your diet, look at your
stresses in life, stop smoking, drink in moderation and you too may make a
100. Of course, if you die of boredom aged 103, it wasn’t really worth it,
was it! Has anyone seen my garden hose?
Heart to Heart with Hillary
Has the Mistersingha person died? We haven’t had to put up with his ramblings
for a while. Or have you been screwing his letters up and dropping them in the
round file beside your desk? BTW, sorry to read that you got held up in Bangkok
for the 15th party. Good stoush. Maybe next year?
Chang for ever
Dear Chang for ever,
No, he hasn’t died, my Petal. Look at the letter below yours. And have you been
snooping in my office, you naughty boy and saw my round file? You should be
ashamed. Nothing’s sacred these days. Yes, I was sorry I missed the bash, but
maybe next year?
Pater is having a little difficulty with his high-rise condom! Despite having
his “DUNBONKIN” sign displayed on his door, ladies still go tap, tap, tap as
only ladies can! What can he do, apart from popping out for an extended whirdle?
What did I do in my last life to deserve you? Please let me know when you put
the “DUNLIVIN” sign above the door. It will probably happen soon, as whirdling
at his age is almost as dangerous as frangulating. Please pass on my best
regards to your carers. They have a very difficult job.
My Thai girlfriend is perfect in every way, but one. When we go out for a beer
she gets very ‘teary’ after a round or two and rehashes all the bad things that
have happened to her in the past. As far as I am concerned, what’s in the past
is in the past, so let’s not cry over spilt milk, as they say. She sees it this
way too, until she’s had a skinful and then it’s back to the tears again. This
then means no nooky for me that night. Have you any ideas what I can do to get
her over this?
You men are all the same. Beer and sex, sex and beer. Don’t you think of
anything else? Have you tried not plying her with drink? Beer is neither a
stimulant or a muscle strengthener, but is a depressant and a muscle relaxer
(ever heard of brewer’s droop). Neither of these items are good for your
nocturnal pursuits, you know. Try sticking with soft drinks for the little lady
– and a few for yourself won’t go astray either!
I have an estate in the UK where I live for six months every year. My children
are all grown up and are self supporting, and my wife is well covered in my
will. The problem I am looking at now is the fact that I have invested in real
estate in this country, and have a Thai friend who looks after my investment for
me, collects rents and the like. I would like to make sure that he is looked
after if I should die, and would want that my Thai real estate holdings go to
him, and not my UK family which will be well off when I go, which I hope will
not be too soon. How do I go about this, Hillary?
Really it is not too difficult at all, but you have to follow Thai law in this
situation. I cannot give you all the details, Petal, but a good Thai lawyer can.
Ask around your ex-pat friends for names of recommended lawyers, and if needs be
get advice from more than one. I would try to keep your two sets of
beneficiaries as separate as possible. There’s nothing like a death to bring a
family together – to fight about who gets what! Add in another set of
beneficiaries and you have a real cat-fight.
You have been asked about tipping before, but I cannot find the edition it was
in. I realize that waiters look to the tip as part of their wages, but I just
need to know how much should I tip them? Is it compulsory? I do not want to look
mean, but I haven’t got thousands of baht to fritter away each time I go out. I
appreciate your advice each week.
Much depends upon whether the establishment includes the tip, called Service
Charge, in the bill. Many hotels have the signs + + after the price, and this
means plus service charge and plus VAT. Since they have already factored in
(usually 10 percent) for the tip, then there is no point in tipping twice. Some
people say that the establishment pockets the service charge and does not give
it to the waiters and waitresses, but that is something between the employers
and the staff, nothing to do with the diners. If the restaurant does not include
the service charge, then around 10 percent is fair enough, unless you have had
lousy service, or no service. In those cases, do not tip at all. In fact I have
been known to wait for five baht change just to show them that I only tip for
good service. If the service has been exemplary, with lots of fawning and
scraping to make me feel wonderful (flattery gets them everywhere) then I will
tip more than 10 percent. I’m not stingy.
Learn to Live to Learn: with Andrew Watson
A sinner repents
Last week I wrote about ignorance as the cancer of society,
eating away the fabric and potential of humanity and of
education as the panacea. So beware the notion that ignorance in
its purest most evil form can lurk within the source of formal
Time can be a great healer too, it is true. The perspective of
hindsight provides the potential for more considered reflection.
The following is an account of a remarkable conversation I
recently had in Zurich, which I think proves the point. At his
request, I have changed the name of my interlocutor.
Nigel claimed to know me, but I had never knowingly had a
conversation with him before, a point that he readily confirmed.
He sought me out across a crowded conference hall and the first
thing he did was apologise. I didn’t recognise him at all at
first; he was tall and gangly and a bit unkempt. I suppose that
like Quasimodo, he rung a bell somewhere. I thought “This is a
bit strange” and asked him what he felt compelled to apologise
to me for.
There began a lengthy, emotional monologue which he began by
describing how he had once worked in an adjacent school to ours
in Jerusalem. That was a long time ago. When he had first
arrived there from France, he had been greeted by his new
colleagues amicably enough and had learned about his new
environment almost exclusively from this source. Unfortunately,
some of the testimony of his new “friends” was shall we say,
Unlike his friends, I choose my words carefully; I remembered
talking with one of them (a future senior manager, would you
believe) who happily declared, “I don’t need to talk to somebody
to know if I am going to like them or not - I make up my mind
straight away” then, not knowing that I was one of these, she
warned that I should “watch out for people married to Israelis”.
By his own volition, explained Nigel, he decided to play safe
and to pander to others’ prejudice, which meant avoid talking
with me in particular at all costs, even though we worked in the
same field. He didn’t want to jeopardise his relationship with
his new colleagues.
As he spoke, gradually I remembered that through common friends,
I had once heard that he was struggling a bit and that I had
actually offered to help him in particular areas of my
expertise; it was well meant. Thus, I had been slightly
surprised that he hadn’t taken me up on the offer. Nonetheless,
I hadn’t thought anymore on it, until now, as Nigel revealed to
me how he had allowed others’ prejudice to become his fear.
His paranoid neurosis (as he described it) grew to such an
extent, that after a year or so he recognised, in a rare moment
of reflective clarity, that he was subjugating the best
interests of his students to satisfy his own unsubstantiated
opinions. He knew (it being an overly politicised environment)
that his (rather oppressive) boss was playing self-serving games
with him but Nigel put his own future first.
“Well,” I comforted him, “I don’t think anybody would blame you
for thinking about your career!” But the poor chap seemed
overcome! Now, here he was on the verge of tears, ashamed,
repenting, getting a whole load of his chest. But I had to say
to him that this was all going on in his own head; whilst I
appreciated the gesture and the sentiment, how could any of this
have affected me personally?
Then he went on and spoke about how his ignorance and fear and
given birth to the bastard child jealousy (I had to stifle a
guffaw of incredulity - what on earth could he possibly be
jealous of?). Nigel continued; he had heard accounts of my
popularity and dare I say it, competence and began resenting me
It is true that I enjoyed a reasonably high profile, but I never
imagined, when looking into somebody’s eyes (I now vaguely
recognised him from exhibitions and probably a restaurant or
two) that they might harbour a grudge for any reason. After all,
I had never even spoken to the guy! But then, I thought of how
one of my heroes, George Harrison, had been attacked and stabbed
and had reflected at the time, “but who could possibly want to
hurt George - he’s the most gentle, loving, generous person in
The Buddha speaks about the spiral of decline, where ignorance,
greed, jealousy and hatred create nothing but misery and
suffering for the person infected by them. Nigel described to me
how he felt that he had become consumed by hatred - hatred of
the unknown - to such an extent that when he met friends or
acquaintances of mine (which was inevitable in such a small
place - it was also natural and appropriate that we should be
mixing anyway) he would almost physically recoil. He would then
proceed to invent theories to substantiate his position and
became what he called a “self-appointed historical revisionist”.
“Well I’m sure things changed after I left,” I comforted him;
this was only natural. But he wasn’t done; he excoriated himself
for ascribing personal characteristics without foundation, for
satisfying his own condition by excluding reason, for becoming
paralysed by fear of nothing but fear itself, for doing the easy
thing rather than the right thing, for imprisoning himself in
his own ignorance and for being unwilling to challenge his own
preconceptions and assumptions.
He was clearly troubled; so what happened to change all of this?
His response caught me completely by surprise; his boss at work
turned out to be not so much economical as parsimonious with the
truth and then (this touched me) he saw me, shortly before I
left Jerusalem, playing with my daughter (only one child then)
in Independence park. And he thought, “From now on, I really
must make my mind up for myself about things.” Wow.
He asked me if I would forgive him. I didn’t really think there
was anything to forgive - I’m not a priest - and I still didn’t
feel that he hadn’t done me any harm, he was just a prisoner of
his own ignorance. But through forgiveness I think he thought I
might be able to liberate him, to close the circle so to speak,
and so I did.
Next week: Looking back, looking forward
Let’s go to the movies:
by Mark Gernpy
Now playing in Pattaya
WALL·E: US Animation/ Comedy/ Family/ Romance/ Sci-Fi –
The film is a work of genius from the first frame to the last. Robot
love in a dead world, and the cutest love story in years. There’s
virtually no dialogue for the first 30 minutes; you’ll be enthralled.
Reviews: Universal acclaim.
Where the Miracle Happens: Thai Drama – Make no mistake, this is
a powerful plea for compassion towards neglected segments of Thai
society – the uneducated and exploited people, many hill-tribe, that are
not really citizens of Thai society. It’s a plea for giving everyone
living in Thailand at least the opportunity for education and health
care, and freedom from exploitation.
Produced by Her Royal Highness Princess Ubol Ratana Rajakanya, this film
is a drama adapted from a story in her book, “Short Stories from My
Thoughts.” The Princess also stars in the film as a successful
businesswoman, Pimdao, who loses her daughter in a car accident. Pimdao
herself is seriously injured, but survives after a heart transplant. To
fulfill the philanthropic wish of her child, Pimdao travels to a remote
school in Chiang Rai (the film was shot in Chiang Mai) and tries to help
the rural teachers develop proper educational facilities for poor
children. The drama surfaces when some of the locals doubt her true
intentions and Pimdao has to prove herself while her new heart begins to
Some background: The book, and this film based on the book, is
obviously inspired by the Princess’s tragic loss of her son in the
Indian Ocean when the tsunami hit Phuket in December 2004.
The message is clear: those who have the means – the riches from the
Thai economy – need to take a paternal interest in the country as a
whole. It’s one’s responsibility, and is simply the decent thing to do
for a country that has been good to you. Princess Ubol Ratana, who also
had a hand in writing the script, has herself initiated several projects
aimed at the betterment of the Thai people, projects such as “To Be
Number One” and “Miracle of Life.” This film is a part of the “Miracle
of Life” project, which aims to provide education to underprivileged
children in Thailand.
Her Royal Highness says that she hopes the movie will be “a vehicle to
shed light on the problems faced by children in Thai society.” And the
family problems many Thai teens face.
It’s a heart-felt plea, told in basic and simple dramatic terms, with
the standard ingredients of Thai drama and comedy fused into a quite
moving film. The Princess acquits herself quite beautifully as the prime
actor of the film. The production values are top rate – the photography
If you relax and let yourself be drawn into the story, there’s no way
you won’t be very affected at story’s end – I admit it, I was in tears.
Rogue: Australia/US Thriller – An American journalist on
assignment in the Australian outback encounters a man-eating crocodile.
Generally favorable reviews.
Hanuman: The White Monkey Warrior: Thai Action – Basically, a
martial-arts fantasy, and a questionable retelling of Khon drama.
Shaolin Girl: Japan Action /Comedy – A sequel to the popular Hong
Kong film Shaolin Soccer. This time a Japanese filmmaker is at the helm:
about a girl who returns to Japan after spending 9 years in training to
beat a master of Shaolin Kung Fu in a lot of fake fighting. All reports
indicate it’s a pretty mediocre film, but it’s shown only in a
Thai-dubbed version, so you wouldn’t likely see it anyway.
The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor: US/Germany/Canada Action
/Fantasy – What a shame! All the talent, all the fantastic attention to
detail, wasted on a mess of a movie that is nothing but one bang after
another, one explosion after another, one bloody fight after another,
all to no purpose. Ignore this one, unless of course you like mindless
action, and the rest. Brendan Fraser and Maria Bello play retired
British aristocrat-adventurers who head East for adventure and meet
their grown son. There the three unearth the mummy of China’s ruthless
Dragon Emperor and his vast terra cotta army. Generally negative
The Dark Knight: US Action/ Crime/ Drama/ Thriller – I think it’s
just a wonderful film, but not everyone agrees; I find it dark, complex,
and unforgettable, and think it succeeds not just as an entertaining
comic book film, but as a richly thrilling and disturbing crime drama.
Not for kids – it’s way too dark. Reviews: Universal acclaim.
for Aug 21
Death Race: US Action/Thriller – The most twisted spectator
sport on earth as violent criminals vie for freedom by winning a race
driving monster cars outfitted with machine guns, flamethrowers, and
grenade launchers. The previews are the most repulsive imaginable.
The Coffin: Thai Horror – Ananda Everingham as a claustrophobic
architect who nevertheless participates in obscure coffin rituals.
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