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Money matters

Snap Shots

Modern Medicine

Heart to Heart with Hillary

Learn to Live to Learn

Let’s go to the movies


Money matters:   Graham Macdonald MBMG International Ltd.

The dangers of trying to time the market

As everyone knows, what goes up must come down. This is equally applicable to a certain item of clothing as it is to fund prices and share performances. The biggest and, supposed, best make as many poor calls as the rest of us mere mortals. For example, Goldman Sachs (GS) had Marks & Spencer (M&S) as a ‘Buy’ recommendation from when it was priced at 745p. They finally realized that this was not the brightest option when they recently removed the aforementioned tag when it was at 235p. So, if someone had taken the advice when it was given in May last year they would have lost over 68% of the money invested. However, GS were not the only ones with egg on their faces. Investec still had M&S as a ‘Buy’ when it was at 230p.
This is from the same people that recommended Sub-prime to us all and look where that got us. The research done on this was a tad poor to say the least and many of the investment companies’ managers looked at the potential size of their bonuses as opposed to their clients’ wallets.
The question is, who are these researchers and how do they come up with their recommendations? Some recent wag came out with the glorious statement that it just “keeps the mentally disadvantaged off the streets.” It reminds me of JK Galbraith who said that “economics is extremely useful as a form of employment for economists.”
Anyway, I digress. Back to market timing. Another classic is what happened to the Legg Mason Value Trust. Over the last ten years this has consistently outperformed the S&P500. However, in the space of six months, it is now lower than its benchmark and people are now left with the same amount as when they originally invested in 1998. This just goes to show that nothing keeps on going up for ever and that those who invested recently will be ruing the day they did. It also shows that fund managers that rely on growth in assets under management for a source of income as opposed to value delivered (i.e. the vast majority of them) are extremely vulnerable to their own success.
Another good example of this is the old Fidelity Magellan Fund which at it’s height a few years ago had over USD100 billion in it.
Dan Gross of Slate Magazine wrote about the problems that a very large fund has to face: “When you have to buy as much as they do, it’s difficult to open and close positions quietly. Hedge funds and other quick-fire traders are constantly trying to figure out which stocks the big dogs are buying and selling and how they can profit by jumping in and out ahead of them. And unless you want to buy hundreds upon hundreds of positions - in which case you’re essentially mimicking the broader market - a huge mutual-fund manager has to confine himself to huge stocks. Magellan has 207 positions, and its top 10 holdings are the same giant stocks that everybody owns.”
Regular readers of this column will know that, with honourable exceptions like Man Investments, we prefer active funds that are hungry for success. This is because, as can be seen from above, excessive size is a real problem when trying to achieve continued investment success. It behooves investors to select a manager who has no loyalty to anyone but the investor who has elected to put money into that fund. It will sort out the men from the boys and those that manage to survive this bear market will emerge leaner, meaner and a lot stronger.
Now that the poor times have fallen on us again, it is an opportune moment to remind us of what the Yale University Endowment CIO David Swensen said three years ago: “Unfortunately, the track record of individual investors with plain-vanilla mutual funds fails to inspire confidence… [they] overwhelmingly fail to beat the market. In a well-structured study published in 2000, an investment manager, Robert Arnott, showed that over a two-decade period, excessive management fees ... reduce the chance that a mutual fund investor will beat the market to less than one in seven.”
Swenson went on, “Most mutual funds do not produce even minimally acceptable results because of the conflict between the mutual fund company’s profit motive and the mutual fund manager’s fiduciary responsibility. Mutual fund companies profit by gathering assets, charging high fees and churning portfolios. Mutual fund managers produce superior investment returns by limiting assets, assessing low fees and trading infrequently. In case after case, profits trump returns. The mutual fund manager abrogates fiduciary responsibility for personal gain.”
Not all fund managers are greedy incompetents but a lot of the managers are managed by their companies and told that profits for the company are more important than those of the investor. As stated above, I cannot emphasise strongly enough that if you do own funds then you will do a damn sight better by going with a high quality fund manager than just picking a large well-known one.
Many fund managers are also limited in what they can do by the make up of the fund itself. If the fund insists that it can only invest in equities then that is it. There is no facility to allow the manager to jump into alternative funds, commodities, property etc. There is the crux of the matter, as the real challenge now is actual asset allocation - especially having the ability to move money away from any particular area where it may be vulnerable.
Just to show how bad the markets have had it this year you only have to look at the chart on this page. Sector after sector shows massive losses with the only ones not suffering are those industries linked to commodities. This is just the FTSE All Share but it is equally applicable to any major market in the world right now.
The world is a different place now than it was recently. What to do?
1. Do not tie money up in something that you cannot get out of relatively quickly - especially in the equity market.
2. Cash is king.
3. Bonds are not necessarily a good alternative either - not even government ones. For example, the UK government is going to find it difficult to give any tax cuts in this recession and inflation looks as though it is rearing its ugly head at the moment. What with the British Pound looking increasingly vulnerable, it is not the time to be buying these instruments
4. If you have not already done so then it is a good time to consider getting into good quality absolute return funds with a multi-asset class approach.
5. If Option 4 is still too aggressive for you then there is always that option called … Gold.
What all of this basically amounts to is that nobody, not even Warren Buffet, can time individual markets or stocks. Even if you could then it would not really help that as much as 90% of returns comes from asset selection, i.e., market timing at asset selection level just does not work and can be very expensive. Asset allocation, however, is a form of market timing and results in almost all of the growth your portfolio will make.

The above data and research was compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, neither MBMG International Ltd nor its officers can accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the above article nor bear any responsibility for any losses achieved as a result of any actions taken or not taken as a consequence of reading the above article. For more information please contact Graham Macdonald on [email protected]@mbmg-international.com.com



Snap Shots: by Harry Flashman

When all else fails - read the instruction manual

When all else fails - read the instruction manual is always some good advice, and the answer to many photographic problems can be found between its pages. I have written before about just how much information there is available, if you want to look.
Unfortunately, many instruction manuals are close to being useless as the details are too difficult to understand (or ‘navigate’) these days. Is this you? Be honest now. I have this problem too. The family happy snapper is a Canon Ixus 40 and after one or both of the children play with it, the LED screen ends up with all kinds of confusing icons and histograms. How to return it to the simple turn on and take pictures mode is beyond me, and beyond the capabilities of the instruction manual to impart. Fortunately, the store where we bought it has a bright young man who races through menus and gives us back a camera we adults can use. And he does it free of charge. What a bargain.
Now a few weeks ago I published a letter from Darcy in Australia who had written to me with his problems with a new Nikon D 40 X he had purchased. His first digital camera, and welcome to the wonderful world of drop-down menus, while just wanting to snap drop-dead models.
Darcy wrote “Bought the D 40 X. Lovely bit of equipment suitable for my needs. I will ask a little advice now and then as I work my way through all its tricks if you don’t mind. I have already picked up a neat infrared remote shutter control and have tested it out to 30 meters. I also picked up a twin battery pack that should give me plenty of backup power. I will look for an AFS VR 200 mm zoom in a couple of months. A question though, I know most of the time it is power economical to leave the LCD off but occasionally it is needed for viewing. I have trawled through the book and menus for both turning it on and also extending the viewing time of the menus but I’m damned if I can find anything about either items. Any suggestions?”
This prompted Don Griffith to write to me with some advice for young Darcy. And as it was extremely sage advice, I have reprinted the letter below.
“Darcy’s problem with the Nikon D40X has prompted me to pass on a tip. I have a D40 and probably the instruction manual for it is exactly the same as his. Very badly laid out and confusing - vague language and far too many cross references for someone making the transition up to a DSLR to make total sense of.
“To this end it is very worthwhile investing in a third party book on the camera if one wants to get the best out of it.
“I got one from my local ‘Amazon’ - the beauty of using Amazon being I was able to read parts of it before I bought it to make sure I was not buying yet another confusing instruction book. I bought the cheapest available out of a surprisingly large collection that was on offer - and it has been a complete revelation and consider it has totally paid for itself in the first three or four chapters.
“For example, I have had the camera for 12 months and in the first chapter or so I learnt basic things that I was previously unaware of - like how to use the exposure compensation/aperture button.
“No doubt there are owners of other makes of DSLR cameras with much the same problem - if so it is also worth them looking for a book for their camera as well.”
Thank you Don, for that advice, and by the way, Don had added the disclaimer “PS I don’t work for Amazon or have shares in the company etc.”
With today’s increasingly more technical (electronic) cameras, you do need a good manual, and if the factory one is too complex, then I suggest you do as Don Griffith has done. Look for the easier after-market publications.


Modern Medicine: by Dr. Iain Corness, Consultant

The Okinawa Express

It always amazes me just how much of our living is dedicated to try and avoid dying. Every second magazine has some advert for something that will extend our lives, be that taking megavitamins or doing colonic washouts.
I have dealt with the megavitamin myth recently, so I won’t cover that again today, but colonic washouts have been spared my pen dipped in hemlock - until now. Just how, pray tell me, does sticking 300 mm of garden hose up your fundamental orifice assist you to become more healthy? Let me assure you that the colon was designed to cope with human poo. It was not designed to cope with garden hose loaded with mystical ingredients that will make you live longer. Put the garden hose away. It will not work.
However, we still all want to be immortal, so if your ambition is to live to be 100, the Okinawa Express is now leaving from platform number three. According to an article I have read, the Japanese Health Ministry claims that Okinawans have an average life expectancy of 81.2 years - 86 for women and 75 for men (note for the marriageable - choose an Okinawan woman 11 years older than you are and go for a double cremation).
The other amazing fact was that Okinawan centenarians come in at about 34 per 100,000 of the population, almost three and a half times more than the figures from America.
So what are the Okinawans doing right? Is it the center of colonic washouts? Or what is it that we are doing wrong? When you look at this conundrum, it is interesting to note that if you take the Okinawans out of Japan and relocate them in another culture, they end up with the same statistics as the culture in which they are now living. The same has been shown in comparative statistical examinations of all races, for all diseases. East Africans do not get tooth decay, but when working for British Rail (“Mind the gap!”) and living in the UK, end up with a set of typical British rotting teeth - or a fine set of NHS dentures (mind the gap, again!).
So the true story is probably not lucky genes, but revolves around diet and lifestyle. Okinawans are doing better because their lifestyle suits them better, and their diet isn’t poisoning them or blocking their arteries.
The lifestyle on Okinawa is apparently very slow and the stress experienced by the local populace is not high. Now if this were the be all and end all, my car washer will live to be 134 years old, but Thais, despite a nice slow pace don’t do all that well in the longevity stakes either. So there’s more.
The researchers cite diet, and the Okinawans are apparently strong on fruits, vegetables, fish and ‘moderation’. (Once again, the middle way looks like being the best, as a simple Buddhist observation.) Looking at one of their recipes, it ends up being a tofu mish-mash with 59 calories per serving. It is certainly not the high cholesterol stew that we as farangs tend to eat.
The other factors associated with longevity - or the lack of it - cigarettes and booze, were not mentioned in the article - because I think it would be there that you would find another clue. Despite Uncle Ernie who lived to be 103 and smoked 60 cigarettes a day and drank a bottle of bourbon before lunch and died when shot by a jealous husband, we do know that smoking doesn’t help you live longer (when I typed that last phrase, I had inadvertently put “love” longer - but that’s true too). Like wise, we know that with alcohol, the middle way is also best.
So, rather than take the train to Okinawa, look at your diet, look at your stresses in life, stop smoking, drink in moderation and you too may make a 100. Of course, if you die of boredom aged 103, it wasn’t really worth it, was it! Has anyone seen my garden hose?


Heart to Heart with Hillary

Dear Hillary,
Has the Mistersingha person died? We haven’t had to put up with his ramblings for a while. Or have you been screwing his letters up and dropping them in the round file beside your desk? BTW, sorry to read that you got held up in Bangkok for the 15th party. Good stoush. Maybe next year?
Chang for ever
Dear Chang for ever,
No, he hasn’t died, my Petal. Look at the letter below yours. And have you been snooping in my office, you naughty boy and saw my round file? You should be ashamed. Nothing’s sacred these days. Yes, I was sorry I missed the bash, but maybe next year?

Dear Hillary,
Pater is having a little difficulty with his high-rise condom! Despite having his “DUNBONKIN” sign displayed on his door, ladies still go tap, tap, tap as only ladies can! What can he do, apart from popping out for an extended whirdle?
Mistersingha
Dear Mistersingha,
What did I do in my last life to deserve you? Please let me know when you put the “DUNLIVIN” sign above the door. It will probably happen soon, as whirdling at his age is almost as dangerous as frangulating. Please pass on my best regards to your carers. They have a very difficult job.

Dear Hillary,
My Thai girlfriend is perfect in every way, but one. When we go out for a beer she gets very ‘teary’ after a round or two and rehashes all the bad things that have happened to her in the past. As far as I am concerned, what’s in the past is in the past, so let’s not cry over spilt milk, as they say. She sees it this way too, until she’s had a skinful and then it’s back to the tears again. This then means no nooky for me that night. Have you any ideas what I can do to get her over this?
Greg
Dear Greg,
You men are all the same. Beer and sex, sex and beer. Don’t you think of anything else? Have you tried not plying her with drink? Beer is neither a stimulant or a muscle strengthener, but is a depressant and a muscle relaxer (ever heard of brewer’s droop). Neither of these items are good for your nocturnal pursuits, you know. Try sticking with soft drinks for the little lady – and a few for yourself won’t go astray either!

Dear Hillary,
I have an estate in the UK where I live for six months every year. My children are all grown up and are self supporting, and my wife is well covered in my will. The problem I am looking at now is the fact that I have invested in real estate in this country, and have a Thai friend who looks after my investment for me, collects rents and the like. I would like to make sure that he is looked after if I should die, and would want that my Thai real estate holdings go to him, and not my UK family which will be well off when I go, which I hope will not be too soon. How do I go about this, Hillary?
Jim
Dear Jim,
Really it is not too difficult at all, but you have to follow Thai law in this situation. I cannot give you all the details, Petal, but a good Thai lawyer can. Ask around your ex-pat friends for names of recommended lawyers, and if needs be get advice from more than one. I would try to keep your two sets of beneficiaries as separate as possible. There’s nothing like a death to bring a family together – to fight about who gets what! Add in another set of beneficiaries and you have a real cat-fight.

Dear Hillary,
You have been asked about tipping before, but I cannot find the edition it was in. I realize that waiters look to the tip as part of their wages, but I just need to know how much should I tip them? Is it compulsory? I do not want to look mean, but I haven’t got thousands of baht to fritter away each time I go out. I appreciate your advice each week.
Tippy
Dear Tippy,
Much depends upon whether the establishment includes the tip, called Service Charge, in the bill. Many hotels have the signs + + after the price, and this means plus service charge and plus VAT. Since they have already factored in (usually 10 percent) for the tip, then there is no point in tipping twice. Some people say that the establishment pockets the service charge and does not give it to the waiters and waitresses, but that is something between the employers and the staff, nothing to do with the diners. If the restaurant does not include the service charge, then around 10 percent is fair enough, unless you have had lousy service, or no service. In those cases, do not tip at all. In fact I have been known to wait for five baht change just to show them that I only tip for good service. If the service has been exemplary, with lots of fawning and scraping to make me feel wonderful (flattery gets them everywhere) then I will tip more than 10 percent. I’m not stingy.


Learn to Live to Learn: with Andrew Watson

A sinner repents

Last week I wrote about ignorance as the cancer of society, eating away the fabric and potential of humanity and of education as the panacea. So beware the notion that ignorance in its purest most evil form can lurk within the source of formal education itself.
Time can be a great healer too, it is true. The perspective of hindsight provides the potential for more considered reflection. The following is an account of a remarkable conversation I recently had in Zurich, which I think proves the point. At his request, I have changed the name of my interlocutor.
Nigel claimed to know me, but I had never knowingly had a conversation with him before, a point that he readily confirmed. He sought me out across a crowded conference hall and the first thing he did was apologise. I didn’t recognise him at all at first; he was tall and gangly and a bit unkempt. I suppose that like Quasimodo, he rung a bell somewhere. I thought “This is a bit strange” and asked him what he felt compelled to apologise to me for.
There began a lengthy, emotional monologue which he began by describing how he had once worked in an adjacent school to ours in Jerusalem. That was a long time ago. When he had first arrived there from France, he had been greeted by his new colleagues amicably enough and had learned about his new environment almost exclusively from this source. Unfortunately, some of the testimony of his new “friends” was shall we say, bigoted.
Unlike his friends, I choose my words carefully; I remembered talking with one of them (a future senior manager, would you believe) who happily declared, “I don’t need to talk to somebody to know if I am going to like them or not - I make up my mind straight away” then, not knowing that I was one of these, she warned that I should “watch out for people married to Israelis”.
By his own volition, explained Nigel, he decided to play safe and to pander to others’ prejudice, which meant avoid talking with me in particular at all costs, even though we worked in the same field. He didn’t want to jeopardise his relationship with his new colleagues.
As he spoke, gradually I remembered that through common friends, I had once heard that he was struggling a bit and that I had actually offered to help him in particular areas of my expertise; it was well meant. Thus, I had been slightly surprised that he hadn’t taken me up on the offer. Nonetheless, I hadn’t thought anymore on it, until now, as Nigel revealed to me how he had allowed others’ prejudice to become his fear.
His paranoid neurosis (as he described it) grew to such an extent, that after a year or so he recognised, in a rare moment of reflective clarity, that he was subjugating the best interests of his students to satisfy his own unsubstantiated opinions. He knew (it being an overly politicised environment) that his (rather oppressive) boss was playing self-serving games with him but Nigel put his own future first.
“Well,” I comforted him, “I don’t think anybody would blame you for thinking about your career!” But the poor chap seemed overcome! Now, here he was on the verge of tears, ashamed, repenting, getting a whole load of his chest. But I had to say to him that this was all going on in his own head; whilst I appreciated the gesture and the sentiment, how could any of this have affected me personally?
Then he went on and spoke about how his ignorance and fear and given birth to the bastard child jealousy (I had to stifle a guffaw of incredulity - what on earth could he possibly be jealous of?). Nigel continued; he had heard accounts of my popularity and dare I say it, competence and began resenting me personally.
It is true that I enjoyed a reasonably high profile, but I never imagined, when looking into somebody’s eyes (I now vaguely recognised him from exhibitions and probably a restaurant or two) that they might harbour a grudge for any reason. After all, I had never even spoken to the guy! But then, I thought of how one of my heroes, George Harrison, had been attacked and stabbed and had reflected at the time, “but who could possibly want to hurt George - he’s the most gentle, loving, generous person in the world?”
The Buddha speaks about the spiral of decline, where ignorance, greed, jealousy and hatred create nothing but misery and suffering for the person infected by them. Nigel described to me how he felt that he had become consumed by hatred - hatred of the unknown - to such an extent that when he met friends or acquaintances of mine (which was inevitable in such a small place - it was also natural and appropriate that we should be mixing anyway) he would almost physically recoil. He would then proceed to invent theories to substantiate his position and became what he called a “self-appointed historical revisionist”.
“Well I’m sure things changed after I left,” I comforted him; this was only natural. But he wasn’t done; he excoriated himself for ascribing personal characteristics without foundation, for satisfying his own condition by excluding reason, for becoming paralysed by fear of nothing but fear itself, for doing the easy thing rather than the right thing, for imprisoning himself in his own ignorance and for being unwilling to challenge his own preconceptions and assumptions.
He was clearly troubled; so what happened to change all of this? His response caught me completely by surprise; his boss at work turned out to be not so much economical as parsimonious with the truth and then (this touched me) he saw me, shortly before I left Jerusalem, playing with my daughter (only one child then) in Independence park. And he thought, “From now on, I really must make my mind up for myself about things.” Wow.
He asked me if I would forgive him. I didn’t really think there was anything to forgive - I’m not a priest - and I still didn’t feel that he hadn’t done me any harm, he was just a prisoner of his own ignorance. But through forgiveness I think he thought I might be able to liberate him, to close the circle so to speak, and so I did.
Next week: Looking back, looking forward


Let’s go to the movies: by Mark Gernpy

Now playing in Pattaya
WALL·E: US Animation/ Comedy/ Family/ Romance/ Sci-Fi – The film is a work of genius from the first frame to the last. Robot love in a dead world, and the cutest love story in years. There’s virtually no dialogue for the first 30 minutes; you’ll be enthralled. Reviews: Universal acclaim.
Where the Miracle Happens: Thai Drama – Make no mistake, this is a powerful plea for compassion towards neglected segments of Thai society – the uneducated and exploited people, many hill-tribe, that are not really citizens of Thai society. It’s a plea for giving everyone living in Thailand at least the opportunity for education and health care, and freedom from exploitation.
Produced by Her Royal Highness Princess Ubol Ratana Rajakanya, this film is a drama adapted from a story in her book, “Short Stories from My Thoughts.” The Princess also stars in the film as a successful businesswoman, Pimdao, who loses her daughter in a car accident. Pimdao herself is seriously injured, but survives after a heart transplant. To fulfill the philanthropic wish of her child, Pimdao travels to a remote school in Chiang Rai (the film was shot in Chiang Mai) and tries to help the rural teachers develop proper educational facilities for poor children. The drama surfaces when some of the locals doubt her true intentions and Pimdao has to prove herself while her new heart begins to weaken.
Some background: The book, and this film based on the book, is obviously inspired by the Princess’s tragic loss of her son in the Indian Ocean when the tsunami hit Phuket in December 2004.
The message is clear: those who have the means – the riches from the Thai economy – need to take a paternal interest in the country as a whole. It’s one’s responsibility, and is simply the decent thing to do for a country that has been good to you. Princess Ubol Ratana, who also had a hand in writing the script, has herself initiated several projects aimed at the betterment of the Thai people, projects such as “To Be Number One” and “Miracle of Life.” This film is a part of the “Miracle of Life” project, which aims to provide education to underprivileged children in Thailand.
Her Royal Highness says that she hopes the movie will be “a vehicle to shed light on the problems faced by children in Thai society.” And the family problems many Thai teens face.
It’s a heart-felt plea, told in basic and simple dramatic terms, with the standard ingredients of Thai drama and comedy fused into a quite moving film. The Princess acquits herself quite beautifully as the prime actor of the film. The production values are top rate – the photography is luscious.
If you relax and let yourself be drawn into the story, there’s no way you won’t be very affected at story’s end – I admit it, I was in tears.
Rogue: Australia/US Thriller – An American journalist on assignment in the Australian outback encounters a man-eating crocodile. Generally favorable reviews.
Hanuman: The White Monkey Warrior: Thai Action – Basically, a martial-arts fantasy, and a questionable retelling of Khon drama.
Shaolin Girl: Japan Action /Comedy – A sequel to the popular Hong Kong film Shaolin Soccer. This time a Japanese filmmaker is at the helm: about a girl who returns to Japan after spending 9 years in training to beat a master of Shaolin Kung Fu in a lot of fake fighting. All reports indicate it’s a pretty mediocre film, but it’s shown only in a Thai-dubbed version, so you wouldn’t likely see it anyway.
The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor: US/Germany/Canada Action /Fantasy – What a shame! All the talent, all the fantastic attention to detail, wasted on a mess of a movie that is nothing but one bang after another, one explosion after another, one bloody fight after another, all to no purpose. Ignore this one, unless of course you like mindless action, and the rest. Brendan Fraser and Maria Bello play retired British aristocrat-adventurers who head East for adventure and meet their grown son. There the three unearth the mummy of China’s ruthless Dragon Emperor and his vast terra cotta army. Generally negative reviews.
The Dark Knight: US Action/ Crime/ Drama/ Thriller – I think it’s just a wonderful film, but not everyone agrees; I find it dark, complex, and unforgettable, and think it succeeds not just as an entertaining comic book film, but as a richly thrilling and disturbing crime drama. Not for kids – it’s way too dark. Reviews: Universal acclaim.
Scheduled
for Aug 21
Death Race:
US Action/Thriller – The most twisted spectator sport on earth as violent criminals vie for freedom by winning a race driving monster cars outfitted with machine guns, flamethrowers, and grenade launchers. The previews are the most repulsive imaginable.
The Coffin: Thai Horror – Ananda Everingham as a claustrophobic architect who nevertheless participates in obscure coffin rituals.



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